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Shanahan's Jedi Mind Tricks II: Sex Cannon in dead heat with Admiral Checkdown? Shanahan deserves Coach of the Year, if not an Oscar


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I'm callling it right now. Either Mike Shanahan will be Coach of the Year, or he should be getting two Oscars for Best Actor and Best Director. Or both.

It's going to come down to injuries. Lose too many Jarvis Jenkins, and there won't be enough horses to carry through what he's started. That's the only way Shanahan loses Coach of the Year. It's a worry, because Jenkins is done and Landry and Cooley look like they're one punch from hitting the canvas. That's 3 out of the 10 best players possibly out. At some positions there's no depth at all. Lose Trent Williams or Will Montgomery, this team is done. RB seems stacked, but lose Hightower and the starting QB will make the worst Redskin critics look like oracles - due to lack of pass pro. Lose Moss, and Grossman falls back to earth. Lose Cofield and we've got last year's 3-4. Lose Fletcher, and the defense never gets off the field.

Injuries can make a lot of cynics look smart. On the other hand, if the big injuries stop, and if either Cooley or Landry can play effectively for 16 games, this team is going a long way.

Shanahan's Jedi Mind Tricks II: Sex Cannon is in a dead heat with Admiral Checkdown?

Mike Shanahan is smuggling an elite NFL QB into the regular season. If you don't know this already, you are fully under the control of Shanahan's Jedi mind tricks.

kenobi-skywalker.jpg

For a refresher, roll tape of the original master, Obi-wan Kenobi, shown here smuggling Luke Skywalker and the droids past the storm troopers. Think of Skywalker as Rex Grossman. The droids are the attributes that can make him an elite NFL QB.

Stormtrooper: "How long have you had these droids?"

Skywalker: "About three or four seasons."

Kenobi: "They're for sale if you want them."

Stormtrooper: "Let me see your identification."

Kenobi: "You don't need to see his identification."

Stormtrooper: "We don't need to see his identification."

Kenobi: "These aren't the droids you're looking for."

Stormtrooper: "These aren't the droids we're looking for."

Kenobi: "He can go about his business."

Stormtrooper: "You can go about your business."

Kenobi: "Move along."

Stormtrooper: "Move along. Move along."

If you wanted to smuggle an elite NFL QB into the regular season, what would you do?

For starters, don't sign him before the lockout. Let the months roll by without that QB even listed as part of the Washington Redskins.

Next, flood the media with stories about how much you love some other guy. Ideally this guy will never have won an NFL game in his life. He'll have been drafted by one of the worst teams of the past decade. Maybe he's fumbled 7 times in four games. Sacked 13 times. Never completed a pass longer than 22 yards. Released from his contract by that bad team, even though he's cheap. Picked up by another team, and then traded by his original offensive coodinator for a box of Cracker Jacks. Then, get up before the mics and talk about how much you admired this guy in college. Have your son talk about how he'd stand on tables to draft this guy at #10, even with Matt Schaub on the roster. The media will think you're nuts. They will be legally obligated to rank your team #32 out of 32 teams in the NFL.

Meanwhile, you are destroying the market for your elite QB. Because if it's such a low priority to sign this guy, and if Biff the Good Son is the only guy you're talking about, then the elite QB must really suck, right?

At the last minute, resign the elite QB for chump change. If you can't get a cheap 3-year deal, get the 1-year deal done. Have him take all the snaps against the Steeler first-team defense, that should take him down a few pegs. (Or not.) Start Biff against the creampuff preseason Colts, and let him check down as much as he wants. Every time he takes a snap from behind center, run play action and roll him out, so that all his passing lanes look like aircraft hangers. Jack up his QB rating. Later talk about how the only way to attack the Cover 2 is to throw backwards. (Rehearse this before a mirror, so you can keep a straight face.)

Game 3 will be a challenge. Everyone expects you to start your regular-season QB. Pretend it's too close to call. You've watched QBs your whole life, staked your name on picking the best. But this time ... dang, these guys are just too close. So, you'll alternate QBs. That's equal exposure, right? Throw in this curve ball: you'll alternate QBs every two series.

Miraculously, the QBs emerge from the game without about the same QB rating. Biff fans complain that Biff didn't throw many passes, but at least he threw the long ball. Stupid arguments emerge about who has the strongest arm. All this is predictable. You ordered Biff to throw deep three times. This to chase the Admiral Checkdown snickers. On his last drive, you let Biff jack up his QB rating once again, playing the backups. The media lines up and salutes: Biff is the man!

But there's one thing the media doesn't know and doesn't report.

The Rule of 6

NFL teams have a median of 6 possessions per half. By possession I mean possession of the ball with at least 1 minute on the clock: time enough to mount a drive.

I checked the Week 3 games played so far. 28 teams have played, and in 26 out of 28 opportunities, teams had 6 or fewer first-half possessions.

  • 15 teams: 6 possessions
  • 8 teams: 5 possessions
  • 3 teams: 4 possessions
  • 2 teams: 7 or 8 possessions
  • Median: 6 possessions

To get more than 6 possessions in a half, generally an elite level of suck must be present. For example, suppose you were an NFL team and actually started Tavaris Jackson as QB. You might find yourself punting after 8 out of Jackson's 9 first "drives." Both you and your opponent (say, the Broncos) would have more than 6 possessions in the first half.

Some teams will play their #1 QB into the third quarter, on week 3 of preseason. However, this is a special case, generally one of these circumstances:

  • The starting QB did not get 6 possessions in first half (Cutler)
  • The starting QB is very young / new to the system / first-time starter, and needs reps (Newton, Painter, Jackson, Orton)
  • The starting offense was embarrassed in the first half, and needs more reps (Brady)
  • The head coach is an insecure d-bag (Flacco)

What's more, there is about a 75% chance that possession #5 or #6 will be a 2-minute drill. It should be 50% odds, but NFL teams are bad enough at 2-minute drills that half the time, the first team to have a 2-minute drill opportunity will execute 3 incomplete passes / passes out of bounds / timeouts / interception, thereby gift-wrapping a 2-minute drill opportunity for the opponent.

2-minute drills are very hard to execute properly, even by very good QBs. If you want an average or young QB to look stupid, throw him into a 2-minute drill. Hell, Donovan McNabb still can't execute a 2-minute drill.

To see a 2-minute drill done right, we need to turn to the master, Tom Brady. Let's see how he handled his opportunity Saturday night, end of first half:

  • New England Patriots at 1:07
  • 1-10-NE 20 (1:07) (Shotgun) T.Brady pass short right to D.Woodhead to NE 29 for 9 yards (B.Carpenter).
  • 2-1-NE 29 (:46) (No Huddle, Shotgun) T.Brady pass short right to A.Hernandez to NE 42 for 13 yards (A.Berry).
  • Timeout #1 by NE at 00:40.
  • 1-10-NE 42 (:40) (Shotgun) T.Brady pass short left intended for C.Ochocinco INTERCEPTED by R.Silva at DET 43. R.Silva to NE 46 for 11 yards (W.Welker).

Despite Tom Brady being an elite QB, Belichick had to trot him out for a redirect possession at the top of the third. He gained 3 yards in two passes, and punted.

That's how a HOF QB plays under the bright lights of preseason 2-minute drills. Let's face it. It's no fun trying to get an offense in gear in preaseason, not showing your best plays, meanwhile facing starting NFL defenses in constant, obvious passing situations. It's going to fail more than it works. Spectacular failures are probable. The "elite" QB will wait until 3rd down before being intercepted (Brady). A guy like Alex Smith? Interception on second down. That's how you know Brady is a cut above the rest.

If you're Mike Shanahan, you know all of these things. The worst thing you could possibly do would be to alternate series in blocks of 3 or 1. In either of those cases, poor Biff would be highly likely to fail. He'd be going against the first-team Ravens defense (tremendous pressure, good secondary), and he'd be in a 2-minute drill against this same defense. Down the toilet he goes.

There's one way to avoid this scenario: alternate QBs every 2 series, with the elite QB going first. This strategy means that Biff has almost a 0% chance of being in a 2-minute drill against the Ravens, while the elite QB has about a 75% chance. Most likely, the elite QB will have 4 series against the starting defense, ending in a 2-minute drill. Biff will have 2 series against the starting defense, then 2 more series in the third quater, against the backups.

This was the plan, and this was exactly what happened. The most probable outcome occurred.

Sex Cannon plays a better Tom Brady than Tom Brady

Thems may be fighting words in Boston, but thems also the truth, this preseason.

Tom Brady, Week 2 vs Bucs:

  • New England Patriots at 2:03
  • 1-10-NE 3 (2:03) (Shotgun) T.Brady pass short right to C.Ochocinco to NE 9 for 6 yards (D.Johnson).
  • Two-Minute Warning
  • 2-4-NE 9 (2:00) T.Brady sacked at NE 3 for -6 yards (T.Crowder).
  • 3-10-NE 3 (1:35) T.Brady pass deep right to W.Welker to NE 19 for 16 yards (C.Lynch).
  • 1-10-NE 19 (1:12) (Shotgun) T.Brady pass short left to W.Welker to NE 25 for 6 yards (E.Mack, A.Gaitor).
  • 2-4-NE 25 (:47) (Shotgun) T.Brady pass incomplete short middle to W.Welker [M.Foster].
  • 3-4-NE 25 (:41) (Shotgun) T.Brady pass incomplete short middle to W.Welker.
  • 4-4-NE 25 (:37) (Punt formation) Z.Mesko punts 51 yards to TB 24, Center-M.Katula. P.Parker to TB 31 for 7 yards (T.White).

Tom Brady, Week 3 vs Lions:

  • New England Patriots at 1:07
  • 1-10-NE 20 (1:07) (Shotgun) T.Brady pass short right to D.Woodhead to NE 29 for 9 yards (B.Carpenter).
  • 2-1-NE 29 (:46) (No Huddle, Shotgun) T.Brady pass short right to A.Hernandez to NE 42 for 13 yards (A.Berry).
  • Timeout #1 by NE at 00:40.
  • 1-10-NE 42 (:40) (Shotgun) T.Brady pass short left intended for C.Ochocinco INTERCEPTED by R.Silva at DET 43. R.Silva to NE 46 for 11 yards (W.Welker).

Rex Grossman Week 1 vs Steelers:

  • Washington Redskins at 1:41
  • 1-10-WAS 14 (1:41) (Shotgun) R.Grossman pass short middle to A.Armstrong to WAS 31 for 17 yards (S.Sylvester).
  • 1-10-WAS 31 (1:14) (No Huddle, Snap 21 seconds later, Shotgun) R.Grossman pass short left to A.Armstrong to WAS 40 for 9 yards (D.Warren).
  • 2-1-WAS 40 (:52) (No Huddle, Snap 21 seconds later, Shotgun) R.Grossman pass short left to J.Gaffney to WAS 45 for 5 yards (K.Lewis).
  • Timeout #2 by WAS at 00:50.
  • 1-10-WAS 45 (:50) (Shotgun) R.Grossman pass short middle to J.Gaffney to PIT 48 for 7 yards (K.Lewis).
  • 2-3-PIT 48 P15 (:21) (No Huddle, Snap 23 seconds later, Shotgun) R.Grossman pass short middle to S.Moss to PIT 39 for 9 yards (L.Foote).
  • Timeout #3 by WAS at 00:19.
  • 1-10-PIT 39 (:19) R.Grossman pass to S.Moss to PIT 31 for 8 yards (W.Gay).
  • 2-2-PIT 31 (:19) (No Huddle, Snap 9 seconds later) R.Grossman spiked the ball to stop the clock.
  • 3-2-PIT 31 (:05) S.Graham 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-N.Sundberg, Holder-S.Rocca.

Rex Grossman, Week 3 vs Ravens:

  • Washington Redskins at 3:05
  • 1-10-WAS 20 (3:05) R.Grossman pass short middle to A.Armstrong to WAS 38 for 18 yards (J.Smith).
  • 1-10-WAS 38 (2:24) R.Grossman pass deep middle to F.Davis to BLT 43 for 19 yards (L.Webb).
  • Two-Minute Warning
  • 1-10-BLT 43 (2:00) (Shotgun) R.Grossman pass short middle to T.Hightower to BLT 46 for -3 yards (J.Johnson).
  • Timeout #1 by WAS at 01:49.
  • 2-13-BLT 46 (1:49) (Shotgun) R.Grossman pass short middle to J.Gaffney to BLT 32 for 14 yards (Ca.Williams).
  • 1-10-BLT 32 (1:12) (Shotgun) R.Grossman pass short left to S.Moss to BLT 19 for 13 yards (B.Pollard).
  • Timeout #2 by WAS at 01:02.
  • 1-10-BLT 19 (1:02) R.Grossman pass incomplete deep left to S.Moss (Ca.Williams). Pass is a 22-yard TD pass into end zone, but Moss loses control of ball going to ground.
  • Timeout #3 by BLT at 01:02.
  • 2-10-BLT 19 (1:02) (Shotgun) R.Grossman pass incomplete deep right to S.Moss (J.Smith).
  • 3-10-BLT 19 (:56) (Shotgun) R.Grossman pass incomplete short right to F.Davis.
  • PENALTY on WAS-R.Grossman, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at BLT 19 - No Play.
  • Timeout #3 by WAS at 00:56.
  • 3-15-BLT 24 (:56) R.Grossman pass deep right to S.Moss for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Summing up:

Tom Brady vs Bucs & Lions:

  • Two 2-minute drills
  • Punt and Interception

Rex Grossman vs Steelers and Ravens:

  • Two 2-minute drills
  • Steelers: 6 straight completions, 4 no-huddle plays, FG try
  • Ravens: 2 TD passes (one dropped by Moss). First pass is 22 yards in air, into end zone. Second pass is 27 yards in air, into end zone.

Am I saying that Grossman is better than Brady? Of course not. I'm saying that Grossman is playing better than Brady right now.

He's doing so under tremendous pressure against the best NFL starting defenses. Against the Steelers, Grossman completed six straight passes and ran 4 no-huddle plays, with 21, 21, 23 and 9 seconds elapsed between one gain and the next snap.

Against the Ravens, Grossman was razor-sharp against tight coverage. Here's his first pass of that drive:

Want to see a great read, great timing, great accuracy and a great short arc throw in action? 1st and 10, Redskins 20. Armstrong runs crossing pattern L/R. Grossman has started his throwing motion before Armstrong has even planted to make his break! The ball is in the air as Armstrong makes his break. Coverage is excellent. Armstrong has only a half step on the defender, whose helmet is right next to Armstrong's from the end zone view. Freeze-frame with Armstrong at the hash marks: he is completely invisible to Grossman at this point. Grossman is throwing through the lane set up by his blockers, to the right, over the middle. The LB in the middle sees the throw and leaps for it, 5 yards in front of Armstrong. The ball is just over his hand. Any lower and it's tipped. Armstrong's defender tries to jump the route, but can't, because the throw is perfectly timed and hits Armstrong on the hands. There is no more than 6" between Armstrong hands and the defender's hands. It's a sick, perfect throw, perfect timing, perfect read.

Here's some veteran moxie:

2Q, 2:30, R38: 1st and 10. Grossman comes to line and turns to shout to Gaffney and Moss on the left side, cupping his hands megaphone style. Seems like a play change. Moss is split wide and is stepping in to hear, then waving his hand and nodding, "I got it." Grossman takes the snap, drops back, ignores the left side (where Moss is now double covered). Grossman throws a 14-yard strike downfield to Davis, who does a nice double move (out and up), turning Ray Lewis completely around, and is all alone inside the numbers. The ball is in the air as soon as Davis makes his second move.

This is Grossman and Moss having fun. These guys are completely in sync. Great play design by Kyle. Nice route running by Davis. And Davis manages not to drop the ball. Ravens defense is punked all around. When you're punking Ray Lewis, you're having a good game.

Grossman has a lot of false accusations lobbed his way, and one is that he can't handle pressure. Absolutely false, with the Redskins. He was blitzed constantly by the Ravens in that last drive. Check out the commentary:

2Q, B46, 2nd and 13, shotgun.

Jaworski: "There was pressure coming on Grossman ONCE AGAIN. You'll see it right in his face, Webb coming off the corner. HERE'S the courage to stand in there, deliver the football, deliver a strike. This is what the coaches will grade VERY high for Rex Grossman. You know there's bodies coming after you, you hang in there. Take a bullet, and deliver a strike. Grossman was OUTSTANDING right there. Boy! A lot lof of blitzes in this game, Jon."

Play goes for 13-yard gain, first down. Nice blitz chip by Hightower at last second. 11 yards in air to Gaffney at the left hash, running L/R crossing pattern 2 yards short of first down. Pass leads him and carries him for a first down. Perfect strike on the hands, tight DB coverage as with Armstrong.

And again:

2Q, B33, 1st and 10. CB blitz. Strike to Moss on left side, 6 yards + 7 YAC.

Trico: "ANOTHER corner blitz by Webb. Santana Moss, behind him. First down on the 18 yard line."

Gruden: "This is what you love to see from a veteran quarterback. Blitz him all you want. If you have a hot receiver, if you understand the concepts of your protection system, you can make plays against the blitz. That's back to back great plays by Rex Grossman.

"Let me tell you, he's one of the few guys in the NFL that's quarterbacked a team to the Super Bowl. Don't forget, in 2006, they were 13-3, and Rex had his moments. But last year in the second half against Dallas, he shredded them.

"He's always been one of those guys who's a little underappreciated. But right now, you can see that experience."

The Rule of 3

Here's something you probably didn't know. If your QB averages 3 or more passes per drive for the game, you have better than even odds of winning the game. If your QB averages 2.5 or fewer passes per drive, you are likely to lose the game.

One mark of a winning QB is the ability to sustain drives through passing, thereby giving more attempts per drive. Even teams that run a lot still give their QBs opportunities to extend drives. If the QB is good, he'll complete those passes. The "running" team ends up with fewer drives per game (due to ball-control rush offense), but the QB still averages 3 or more passes per possession. If he doesn't, the offense is unbalanced and is easier to stop.

At this point, the Beck-heads are leaping out of their chairs with their hands up. "Beck sustains drives better than Grossman! Beck runs a ball-control offense better than Grossman!" Hold that thought.

Let's look at this weekend's games. There are two groups of QBs:

Group 1:

  • Bradford
  • Brady
  • Cutler
  • Dalton
  • Freeman
  • Garrard
  • Grossman
  • Hasselbeck
  • Kolb
  • McCoy
  • McNabb
  • Rivers
  • Rodgers
  • Ryan
  • Schaub
  • Vick
  • Fitzpatrick

Group 2:

  • Beck (1.5)
  • Henne (2.0)
  • Newton (2.4)
  • Painter (2.3)
  • Smith (1.5)
  • Stafford (2.3)

So, what's the difference between the groups?

  • Group 1: Averaged 3.0 or more passes per drive, against starting defenses
  • Group 2: Averaged 2.5 or fewer passes per drive, against starting defenses

Looking at the QBs, you'd rather pick from Group 1 than Group 2, right? Exactly.

John Beck tied with Alex Smith for worst in the NFL, with 1.5 passes per drive. Small sample size, I realize, but this is the only sample we've got. Any time you're matching Alex Smith for performance is time for concern.

Rex Grossman vs Ravens? 3.8

How about all of their appearances against starting defenses? Wouldn't that be more fair?

Not really, because Beck faced the Colts, while Grossman faced the Steelers previously. But, sure, let's increase our sample size and see what happens.

Beck vs starting defenses (Ravens, Colts):

  • 7 drives
  • 20 attempts
  • 2.9 attempts per drive

Grossman vs starting defenses (Ravens, Steelers):

  • 9 drives
  • 41 attempts
  • 4.6 attempts per drive

This is a very major difference.

14.0 vs 6.0-yard air distance, and about that TD

So, Beck isn't throwing many passes against starting defenses. After a nice deep sideline pass to Armstrong, Beck's remaining opportunities look like this:

  • 1-10-BLT 37 (3:53) J.Beck pass incomplete deep left to F.Davis. Beck air-mails a deep pass literally 10 yards over the head of Davis, who was covered anyway.
  • 1-10-WAS 22 (12:03) J. Beck sacked at WAS 15 for -7 yards (C. Redding). Totally unnecessary sack, after rollout with loads of room in front of him. If receivers aren't open, throw it away! Or, run. Instead, Beck gets folded up like a lawn chair, literally 5 seconds after the snap.
  • 3-4-WAS 33 (10:31) J. Beck pass incomplete short middle to S. Moss. For his final pass, he skips a ball short to Moss over the middle, forcing a punt.

In the second half, Beck comes out against the Ravens second-team defense, and immediately launches another deep ball into coverage. The defender has position inside and a step deep, giving Stallworth nowhere to run. Easy interception.

Then, in his last drive against the scrubs, Beck goes 6 for 7, with mostly short passing interspersed with 5 runs. The passes have air distances of 6, 6, 1, 8, 10 and -4 yards. The last was a screen pass to Austin, after 3 runs. Austin's nifty running turns that into a 13-yard TD, composed of a minus-4-yard pass and a 17-yard run.

Austin takes a starring role in that drive, converting three passes totalling 10 yards (air) into 56 yards gained, two third-down conversions, and a TD. Those passes by Beck were very good. But, lets be clear about who ran the routes, who was open, who caught the ball, and who ran 46 yards after the catch. It's Austin who is making a case to see the field in the regular season, not Beck.

For the game, Beck had a median air distance of 6.0 yards per catchable pass. Not bad. Grossman? 14.0. Stunning.

Relax. The Jedi master is in charge.

You don't need to believe a word of this post. I realize that John Beck probably remains the people's choice for starting QB. That's fine. It's not actually the people's choice.

Mike Shanahan is smuggling an elite QB into the regular season, and that's peachy. If Grossman fails, hey, we've got John Beck, right?

I don't think he'll fail.

Gruden: "I really like what Rex Grossman did. Not a lot of people survive an 85-yard drive with that many blizes, on the road against the Ravens. I like what Rex Grossman did."

Jaworski: "I like what he did against the pressure of the Baltimore Ravens. Chuck Pagano wants to turn the heat up. He came with an array of blitzes. Off the corner, safeties, linebackers, everything you can imagine. And I thought for the most part, Rex handled them very well."

Here's what I want to see against the Giants: Grossman leading a Jim Kelly-style no-huddle offense, from the first snap.

Go 3 WR (Moss, Gaffney, Armstrong), with Hightower and Cooley. All-out attack. 25 seconds between plays.

Rex Grossman is an attacking QB, and is at best advantage when in an up-tempo, all-out attack offense. Drop that on the Giants with no warning. Hang 50 on the Giants before they know what hit them.

Do something else for the next 3 games. Then do it again against the Eagles at home. I want blood. I want to see grown professional football players, dressed in green and white, and blue and white, standing and crying on our home field.

Short of that, just beat the hell out of them, guys. :)

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ASF, you posts would hold more weight if you weren't so biased. I like how you gave Austin so much credit for that TD drive, but for Beck it was "against scrubs."

---------- Post added August-28th-2011 at 05:49 PM ----------

Oh for frak's sake...

I think ASF is going to lose his mind if John Beck starts the season. The hours of work he puts into this dumb posts are going to waste. As if they weren't a waste anyway.

:ols:

Yea...I really think dude is going to go nuts when Shanahan announces Beck as his starting QB.

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Why the hate for his posts? They are some of the most creative, well-thought out ones on ES.

I gotta agree with you here... biased and totally out there and off the wall as they may be.... they are entertaining and at least have substance..

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ASF is a funny guy. His arguments might look convincing, and I give him full credit for his "creativity," but the OP is a lot of smoke and mirrors.

I am not buying the jedi mind tricks theory for a minute.

As far as Beck playing against backups to supposedly boost his stats, I think that is nonsense. For one thing, he was also playing with backups. It is not as if he had the entire #1 offense going against the #2 defense. When he played the #2's, he also had #2's blocking for him, catching his passes, and running behind him. For another thing, Grossman looked terrible against Indy's #2's. So much for that theory.

As far as repeatedly referring to Grossman as "elite," you must be joking. Grossman is most certainly not elite, and the reason why is this: The Rex cannon is a turnover machine. He has 53 turnovers in 35 career games, and he had 8 turnovers in less than 3 games last year. This pre-season he has not fumbled, which is a surprise, but he did throw a very bad interception, and has twice thrown balls into defenders' hands in the red zone.

As far as referring to Beck as "Admiral checkdown," I think that is bogus. Beck is averaging 9.2 yard per attempt, Grossman is only averaging 7.7 yards per attempt. Regardless of what you perceive, Beck has been more efficient in getting yards than Rex.

This is a real competition, regardless of what ASF's theories would have you believe, and it is also a close competition. Any theory to the contrary is simply absurd.

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Why the hate for his posts? They are some of the most creative, well-thought out ones on ES.

Um, its a sequel thread to an original that was biased. We all know ASF can justify his position with stats, but it's kind of pointless when you go into a project like this with the desired outcome already in mind.

Soon Oldfan will show up and post stats to justify his argument for Beck, and after 15 pages everyone's dead inside.

That's why the hate.

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If you already knew this would be a "sequel" thread and what the conclusion would be, and you know you already strongly disagree, here's an idea!

Don't read it. Don't waste your time posting your critique of the posting of this thread, and waste our time having to read it.

Want to talk about the content? Go for it. I, for one, found this thread to be thoughtful and a heck of a lot more interesting than a lot of the threads on the front page. While I don't necessarily agree with the blatant cherry picking of stats, I do think ASF is on to something, and believe that Grossman will be the starter week one. And I wouldn't have it any other way :logo:

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The head coach is an insecure d-bag (Flacco)

:ols: :ols:

Why the hate for his posts? They are some of the most creative, well-thought out ones on ES.

Seriously, the guy may have a full-on mancrush, but I can't believe people actually complain about posts like this when compared to the average Stadium fare. God forbid we develop the "problem" of having too many posts full of stats and well-articulated, if predictable, points. I'd much rather wade through 50 two-sentence drive-bys about how often Malcolm Kelly is injured.

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So the objective is NOT to score quickly in order to ensure more pass attempts per drive?? IMO it seems a little unfair to contrive a rating system that penalizes a quick score. Have you instead considered a rating system that compares completed pass to punt/INT ratio? At least you were upfront in admitting that you have an agenda.

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Um, its a sequel thread to an original that was biased. We all know ASF can justify his position with stats, but it's kind of pointless when you go into a project like this with the desired outcome already in mind.

Soon Oldfan will show up and post stats to justify his argument for Beck, and after 15 pages everyone's dead inside.

That's why the hate.

No matter where you stand on the issue, its got to be more enlightening and entertaining than 15 pages of "Beck's a loser whose never played!" and "Grossman's inconsistent and throws picks!"

We know all of those things.

At least here you've got some original thought, with lots of effort. That's all you can ask for on a messageboard, even if it is a tin-foil hat worthy conspiracy theory. Its up to the reader to decide whats valid, what's not, what's biased, etc.

---------- Post added August-28th-2011 at 06:10 PM ----------

ya, not the special edition though

Han shot first, god damn it.

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If you already knew this would be a "sequel" thread and what the conclusion would be, and you know you already strongly disagree, here's an idea!

Don't read it. Don't waste your time posting your critique of the posting of this thread, and waste our time having to read it.

Man, people really love to jump the gun around here. I was simply explaining the reason for some posters' hate.

How about I do whatever the hell I please? If a bit of criticism rubs you the wrong way, then YOU don't have to read it :P

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No matter where you stand on the issue, its got to be more enlightening and entertaining than 15 pages of "Beck's a loser whose never played!" and "Grossman's inconsistent and throws picks!"

Of course its better than most threads, and I don't have a problem with it at all. People really like to read into things, and blast any perceived insults.

I like ASF's threads, and especially the McElroy one. Those were much more objective in my opinion, but its always been apparent how much effort he puts into them. I didn't mean to discount that.

But, for example, the pass attempts can be explained by the playcalling, in that Beck being mobile changes the gameplan, and they run the ball more, along with PA boots. Grossman is basically a sitting duck, so he has to throw more by nature. It's not an negative thing for either QB, they're just different imo. I don't think Beck is necessarily a threat to run the ball like some, but the defense can't let him have all day outside the pocket to look deep either. It's a staple of the old Denver offenses, and Kyle seems to be listening to input from Mike on this.

Agree with the foreword on injuries, completely. The whole 2 series thing is a little out there for me.

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...Soon Oldfan will show up and post stats to justify his argument for Beck, and after 15 pages everyone's dead inside....
If you are going to trash me, get your facts straight. My long-standing position is that QB stats are virtually worthless.
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