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Shanahan's Jedi Mind Tricks II: Sex Cannon in dead heat with Admiral Checkdown? Shanahan deserves Coach of the Year, if not an Oscar


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A couple things stick out when comparing the two. Rex's pass totals are skewed a little in comparision to Beck because he's had two two minute drills. In Beck's only opportunity he was undone by Trent Williams lining up off the line. The other item is that the average drive for Grossman has been 6.1 plays and 37.38 yds. The average drive for Beck has been 7.4 plays and 50.78 yds. We have scored on on 4 of 13 drives with Rex (2 TDs, 2 FGs*). We have scored on 6 of 9 of Beck's drives (3 TDs, 3 FGs). Lastly, not only does Beck have a higher YPA, he has a higher YPC.

Thanks for getting all those #'s, I love analyzing large sets of #'s. Here's what stuck out to me right away.

Passes on scoring drives, TD specifically:

ON Rex's 2 TD drives, he has 5 and 8 passes though obviously the 2nd was the 2-minute drill so it must be counted as somewhat of an out-lier. Up until Beck's drive against BAL 2's, the most passes he'd had on a TD drive were 2. Beck's high is 6 low is 2, Grossman's low is 5 high is 8, and he deserves some credit for that dropped pass by Santana.

Next let's look at the percentage of passes on these drives, again Grossman ran a 2-minute drill so his stats must be taken into context. Rex's first TD, 8 plays 5 passes, second TD, 8 plays 8 passes. Over 50% in either case.

Beck first TD 6 plays 2 passes, next TD 4 plays 2 passes, next drive 12 plays 6 passes. Never goes over 50%.

Now let's take a look at FG drives, like you I'm going to count all drives that ended in a reasonably attempted field goal.

Beck:

13 plays 6 passes

9 plays 2 passes

15 plays 6 passes

Rex

12 plays 6 passes

7 plays 7 passes (another 2 minute drill)

Again though Rex is hovering right at 50% on drives that aren't 2-minute drills, while Beck is significantly lower.

Not sure what to make of all this, but I do think it's somewhat telling of the situation. It could also mean that the team scores more TD's when passing more.. but the play-calling changes with the two QB's as members of both sides of the debate like to point out.

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Not sure what to make of all this, but I do think it's somewhat telling of the situation.

I'll tell you what I make of it. Our QB situation isn't nearly as bad as many expected (or still claim). We were told by the Shanahans that they liked Grossman. Many scoffed. They signed John Beck to a new contract in the middle of last year making many people, including myself, go WTF? John Beck? Really? Then we were told they really liked John Beck. Many including myself scoffed. Then play started and I realized that the Shanahans weren't selling us a bag of tricks. Both QBs look darn good in our system. We'll see how it plays out when live bullets start flying but for right now I'm optimistic no matter who they choose.

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Why the hate for his posts? They are some of the most creative, well-thought out ones on ES.

I agree. His threads are typically the most fun to read in the stadium. I may not agree with his conclusions or methods for arriving at them. But damned if that OP isn't magnificent in format and scope.

Sometimes I'm pretty sure ASF himself doesn't believe or truly care about the things he argues for. At these times I think he's trying to see how many people he can convince of something by simply arguing well. A single exceptionally clever and meticulous poster can shape the entire discourse on ES.

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If Rex Grossman is somehow "elite", he'd have to be in the same category as Brady, Brees, Manning and Rodgers. And I don't think anyone on this Earth aside from maybe ASF, that would ever think Grossman is even close to those QBs.

Grossman is a pretty good QB when he limits his mistakes, but hes 31 and still hasn't learned to do that (even in Pre-season hes thrown a terrible INT and would have thrown 2 more if they were caught).

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i don't know why it's impossible that rex grossman can't put up a few trent green/rich gannon esque seasons.

i wouldn't bet on it, but it's possible (it's possible for beck too)

i also think he's clearly better than beck; i just don't buy the idea that people are so scared of beck's bootlegs that they're refusing to overcommit to the run when beck is in the game, and grossman has looked better passing the ball as well.

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The Death of Bonbon

chihuahua_posing-12515.jpg

shanahan-death-of-beck.jpg

Maybe it's just me, but Mike Shanahan's announcement of Rex Grossman as starting QB had the body language of a veterinarian announcing the death of the family dog, Bonbon.

Check the video at 0:24:

Q: Do you know your starting quarterback?

A: Yeah, I got a chance to talk with our quarterbacks over the weekend, talked to both John and Rex. Very good battle. I’ve said all along, I’ve got a lot of faith in both of them. It’s been very competitive all the way through.

But I want to announce today that the quarterback, the starting quarterback will be … [swallows hard] … obviously Rex.

The rumors are right.

Either Shanahan really does deserve an Oscar for this performance, or he actually thought John Beck could defeat Rex Grossman and become the starting QB of the Redskins. This was his big dream.

It's like the dream died when he had to say those words ... "obviously Rex."

Yes, obviously Rex. Thank you for making the right choice on merit. It's been obvious for weeks, and should have been obvious before the preseason games.

What kind of coach is Mike Shanahan?

So, what kind of coach do we have? Is this a coach who actually believed John Beck could (and would) outplay Rex Grossman? Or is this Redskin Park Community Theater?

From the presser, it feels like Shanahan was foolish enough to believe his own myth about Beck, while honest enough as a coach to see that Beck had failed. Or, is that just what Shanahan wants us to think?

Shouldn't he look at least a little happy about how well his starting QB has played?

If this is theater, who is the intended audience?

I have a funny feeling it's the Lord of the Dark Heart.

I've had a theory that Dan Snyder was opposed to Rex Grossman as the starting QB of the Redskins, going back to the day that Grossman signed with the team in early 2009. That he made his opinions known very clearly, and that this resulted somehow in the acquisition of Donovan McNabb, with or without Snyder's direct involvement in that trade.

But a staged competition between Beck and Grossman seems a bit Machiavellian for Shanahan.

Maybe they were tanking for Luck, until they figured out that they actually had a good team, with Grossman leading it?

I applaud the final outcome, but am mystified by the process that led to it. To me, this was never a close contest, and I don't really believe that I scout QBs better than Mike Shanahan does.

Forced to choose, I'll say I'm in awe of Mike Shanahan's master thespian skills. I'd rather that he be a great actor than consider him to be so misguided about poor Bonbon.

Or, maybe it's Andrew Luck that he's grieving about. ;)

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Rant about Mike's body language

Welcome to class, kids. Today our topic will be the psycho-analytic functions of the human brain and its ability (or weakness) in reading too deply into situations. We'll start with this above post.

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maybe it's Andrew Luck that he's grieving about

I definitely think Mike thought Beck could be the starter. He was pretty adamant about it I thought. I thought Beck had a shot too after reading draft profiles about him, but changed my mind soon after watching him play. I would have opted to keep Clemens over Beck too.

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I never completely believed in Beck as a starter for this team. He showed me nothing in last year's preseason, and really nothing spectacular this year. Yeah, he made some pretty nice throws, but he looked lost in the red zone, just like McNabb did last season. His deep ball accuracy was also not there. Plus, he wasn't really tested, which tells me that perhaps the coaches didn't believe in him as previously thought.

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I definitely think Mike thought Beck could be the starter. He was pretty adamant about it I thought. I thought Beck had a shot too after reading draft profiles about him, but changed my mind soon after watching him play. I would have opted to keep Clemens over Beck too.

Agree. Other than his first game, I thought he performed poorly. I couldn't understand all the hype he was getting with regards to his play against the Ravens. I was at the game and thought he looked like crap.

Beck has been overhyped this offseason. Hope we never have to go to him.

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