General Fantasy Football 2011 Discussion

[MattFancy]

I just don't see the evidence that he'll get more carries. Jones will still be there (vulturing TDs) and McCluster is being lined up as a RB this preseason, which will only take carries away from Charles. However, the biggest loss is Weis as the play caller/OC.

In the first 8 games last year, Jones had 15+ carries in 6 of them. In the last 8 games, Jones had 4 such games.

In the first 8 games, Jones had 3 TDs, in the last 8 he had 3.

In the first 8 games, Charles had 15+ carries in 4 of them. In the last 8, he only had 2, but he did have 3 games over 115+ yards.

In the first 8 games, Charles had 2 TDs. In the last 8, he had 6.

[bushwack]

AP and Rice I can see, but CJ2K has his holdout, something worries me about Foster, and Shady's an Eagle.

I'm of course assuming CJ gets the contract issue resolved. The Texans are loaded and as long as Foster's hamstring is fine, he'll be great. And who cares that McCoy is an Eagle. He's still one hell of a RB, and has the ability to catch 80+ catches this year.

I know he's an Eagle, but fantasy is about playing with your head, not your heart.

---------- Post added August-29th-2011 at 11:50 AM ----------

In the first 8 games last year, Jones had 15+ carries in 6 of them. In the last 8 games, Jones had 4 such games.

In the first 8 games, Jones had 3 TDs, in the last 8 he had 3.

In the first 8 games, Charles had 15+ carries in 4 of them. In the last 8, he only had 2, but he did have 3 games over 115+ yards.

In the first 8 games, Charles had 2 TDs. In the last 8, he had 6.

I know how solid he was last year, I had him on my team that won a title.

However, it remains to be seen how he's going to be used without Weis there.

[MattFancy]

I would rather have Foster, CJ, AP, Rice, and McCoy over Charles. But Charles would be my 6th RB.

Foster can't seem to stay healthy in the preseason so I'm definitely worried about him.

Not sure when the contract stuff will be resolved with Johnson, but he doesn't seem to be in a hurry to work something out.

Rice should be a top RB, but will Ricky Williams cut into his carries? Plus the Ravens offense isn't sure what they want to do. Run or Pass more. So Rice has to deal with too many other guys there. I like him, but I like Charles better.

McCoy is another interesting case. How will Ronnie Brown effect his carries?

I know how solid he was last year, I had him on my team that won a title.

However, it remains to be seen how he's going to be used without Weis there.

But you saw that as Charles was used more in the offense throughout the season that his numbers went up. Its not like Thomas Jones is some young RB, so I don't think he'll be a huge threat. McCluster may get some more playing time, but I don't think enough to effect Charles in a big way.

[hail2theskins3]

This is convenient, royallypwned managed to bring up a notion that I wanted to post about anyway: Nobody should ever waste a draft pick on a kicker (and maybe not a defense).

Let me stick with kickers first, because the principle is best highlighted by focusing on the most useless position to waste a draft pick on. I'm going to make a small gamble here and guess that anybody who bothers to read this thread is at least somewhat knowledgeable when it comes to fantasy football sites, and thus is at the very least aware of the fact that there are all sorts of articles out there which use a variety of statistics to show that attempting to predict the best FANTASY kickers in any given season is not unlike attempting to predict the best lottery numbers on any given day. Oh, sure, you can rule out the worst kickers with reasonable (although by no means certain) analysis, and you can certainly identify the best REAL-LIFE kickers in the same way. But accurately projecting which kickers will score the most fantasy points? You might as well play blindfolded darts. Thus, when it comes to a fantasy draft, your best bet is to avoid drafting a kicker altogether. Given the fact that injuries, surprise cuts, training camp revelations, etc. happen every August and early September, it's actually far more useful to use every last late-round pick to snatch up your favorite handcuffs and super-sleepers, in order to be in the best position possible to take advantage of everything that happens before opening day. And when you finally do cut one of your players in order to pick up a kicker about two hours before the regular season officially begins, you can rest easy, knowing that you still have a good chance of having the most productive fantasy kicker of the year.

I wanted to separate kickers from defenses because there are some out there who say that you can do the same thing with defenses, and I think that's a load of crap. The statistical arguments I've read are far less convincing. They tend to rely on the fact that there are a few defenses every year that come out of nowhere to put up good fantasy numbers, but that's true for all fantasy positions. In fact, I'd guess that running back and wide receiver are far less predictable than defenses on an annual basis. There are still several defenses every year that can be relied upon to perform very well, and have less of a tendency to disappoint than a running back drafted in the second round. Making sure to grab a top-6 defense in the draft has served me well, although I'm sure it helps me more than the average player because of my unorthodox overall fantasy strategy. So despite my personal opinion, I'll note that there are plenty of very smart fantasy gurus who say that you should never waste a draft pick on a defense, either, and I'll let the conversation go where it may.

Who would you rather draft in the later rounds? In the last 2 years for the league I've done the top 5-10 Kickers have outscored every flex player (WR/TE) outside of the top 20. That means a great kicker has been more valuable than most 2nd string WRs and almost every starting TE and 3rd string WR.

Janikowski scored about 160 points last year, if he was a WR that would almost have put him in the top 10 for that position. I agree that for the most part picking a kicker that's going to score in the top 5-10 for his position is crap shoot but I'd rather take a chance on one, rather than drafting some 3rd string WR that I'll end up cutting after 3 weeks.

[Gibbsisgod2006]

See, I think Charles could end up being the top RB this year.

Look at his numbers for last season, that was splitting time with Jones at the beginning. He'll get more carries this year and he's a threat in the passing game, so he should easily be in there on 3rd downs.

True but those numbers might be hard to duplicate and then you have to think they have another dynamic player in KC as well in McCluster. With Ray Rice with McGhee gone he is going to get the majority of the goal line touches and yeah they have Ricky but Rice is going to carry the load.

[bushwack]

True but those numbers might be hard to duplicate and then you have to think they have another dynamic player in KC as well in McCluster. With Ray Rice with McGhee gone he is going to get the majority of the goal line touches and yeah they have Ricky but Rice is going to carry the load.

Another point to add on to Rice is the addition of FB Vonta Leach, who was leading the way for Foster last year. He will definitely help Rice, and it's been stated that Rice will be the goal line back, which is huge because Rice owners have wanted to kill McGhee in past years.

[Gibbsisgod2006]

Another point to add on to Rice is the addition of FB Vonta Leach, who was leading the way for Foster last year. He will definitely help Rice, and it's been stated that Rice will be the goal line back, which is huge because Rice owners have wanted to kill McGhee in past years.

I agree.

[ATLredskin]

my plan for this year...

-draft top WRs with first 3 picks

-if Manning slip to round 3 then get him

--draft elite TE with pick #4

-in round 5 or 6 draft either Big Ben or Matt Schaub

-stock up on RBs like Ingram, Hightower, Addai, Ryan Grant, Daniel Thomas, and random sleeper (would like to have at least 3 of these guys)

-don't really have a plan for defense yet, but would most likely like to have the Jets, Ravens, or Steelers

-possible late round guys - Ryan Fitzpatrick, McNabb, LT, Sanchez, and Ronnie Brown

[Gibbsisgod2006]

AP and Rice I can see, but CJ2K has his holdout, something worries me about Foster, and Shady's an Eagle.

---------- Post added August-29th-2011 at 11:42 AM ----------

Brees, Foster, Fitz. AND Clark? Nice.

Yeah I had the first pick in a PPR league yesterday and I choose Rice over Foster. And Really I flipped a coin picking between AP and Rice especially after saturday night's game.

---------- Post added August-29th-2011 at 12:13 PM ----------

my plan for this year...

-draft top WRs with first 3 picks

-if Manning slip to round 3 then get him

--draft elite TE with pick #4

-in round 5 or 6 draft either Big Ben or Matt Schaub

-stock up on RBs like Ingram, Hightower, Addai, Ryan Grant, Daniel Thomas, and random sleeper (would like to have at least 3 of these guys)

-don't really have a plan for defense yet, but would most likely like to have the Jets, Ravens, or Steelers

-possible late round guys - Ryan Fitzpatrick, McNabb, LT, Sanchez, and Ronnie Brown

You might want to look at Rivers I think he is going to be a beast this year. Another Sleeper Matt Stafford or Sam Bradford.

Daniel Thomas is soft Hightower and Ingram are going to be very solid.

[ATLredskin]

No, i'm not interrested in mid round QB sleepers. I plan on finding another QB as the season plays out. Like how Fitzpatrick did his thing last year...I plan on finding that guy before he even breaks out. It could possibly be our own Rex Grossman. And I prefer a Big Ben in the 6th over Rivers in the 3rd. If I draft a QB that early then he is going to be my only guy and I don't feel comfortable with Rivers filling that role. Yes I know I said I would take Manning in the 3rd meaning I would most likely have to pickup another QB from the beginning, but its more of a confidence thing with Manning.

[GibbsFactor]

Here's my first team (10 team league flex, Yahoo standard scoring). Auto picked with #1 draft pick :doh:

Foster

V. Jackson

M. Forte

D. Bowe

S. Holmes

D. Clark

B. Rothlisberger

M. Ryan

T. Hightower

M. Thomas

CJ Spiller (flyer)

P. Garcon

L. Evans

Chicago

G. Hartley

So QB I can matchup all year between Matty Ice and bigBen.

RBs I have Foster and then can play Forte and Hightower with either in the flex. If they struggle I have Holmes to put into the flex. D. Clark was dropping and had to grab him, sure Manning will play plenty this year. Not real sold on Spiller or Garcon but with Collie's concussion issues, why not. Happy with my defense and kicker since I took them so late.

[mcsluggo]

our league is ANCIENT --- it started back in the 80s, before internet, or even widespread use of spreadsheets for calulating scores--- and as a result it has some very idiosynchratic and downright weird characteristics. which is cool

10 team league.

it is a keeper league (you get to keep 8 players and one D/ST).

it ONLY scores bassed on points scored by a player (no catches or yards or fubles or int components)

however you get MORE points for LONG scores, or for scores "out of position" --- for instnace: a RB catching a pass for a TD gets double points

as a result of the above: QB is EASILY the most important position. Much MUCH more important than RB. and RB is about equal to WR.

I am drafting near the bottom (i think 8th or 9th out of 10)

my keepers are::

Vick, Michael QB PHI

Blount, LeGarrette RB TB

Forte, Matt RB CHI

Spiller, C.J. RB Buff

Jackson, Vincent WR SD

Johnson, Andre WR HOU

Cooley, Chris TE WAS

Witten, Jason TE DAL

Steelers DST

i really NEED a good starting RB... but i WANT another good starting QB first...

[GibbsFactor]

As always, here's a link to footballguys.com. They will rate your team for you on the spot.

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/rate-my-team/form.php

And don't forget to check out my team on the last page of this thread

That's an awesome feature! Nice find and thanks for the link!

[Bliz]

10 team keeper league with 0.5 ppr, 0.25 pts / completion.

QB: Matt Stafford, Josh Freeman

RB: LeSean McCoy, Felix Jones, Shonn Green, Javon Ringer, DeMarco Murray

WR: Calvin Johnson, Stevie Johnson, Mario Manningham, Julio Jones, Lee Evans

TE: Jermichael Finley

DST: Pittsburgh

K Gostkowski

A little worried about my RB situation. Will be watching the waiver wire closely.

Yeah, ended up with players from Dallass, NYG and Philly, but no Skins. Sigh.

[GibbsFactor]

our league is ANCIENT --- it started back in the 80s, before internet, or even widespread use of spreadsheets for calulating scores--- and as a result it has some very idiosynchratic and downright weird characteristics. which is cool

10 team league.

it is a keeper league (you get to keep 8 players and one D/ST).

it ONLY scores bassed on points scored by a player (no catches or yards or fubles or int components)

however you get MORE points for LONG scores, or for scores "out of position" --- for instnace: a RB catching a pass for a TD gets double points

as a result of the above: QB is EASILY the most important position. Much MUCH more important than RB. and RB is about equal to WR.

I am drafting near the bottom (i think 8th or 9th out of 10)

my keepers are::

Vick, Michael QB PHI

Blount, LeGarrette RB TB

Forte, Matt RB CHI

Spiller, C.J. RB Buff

Jackson, Vincent WR SD

Johnson, Andre WR HOU

Cooley, Chris TE WAS

Witten, Jason TE DAL

Steelers DST

i really NEED a good starting RB... but i WANT another good starting QB first...

Good news is that RB is so unpredictable and young unknowns pop up all the time. No one even knows who the Titans RB will be week 1. Keep that in mind.

If I'm going to take a flyer on QB this year it's Stafford but you have to have something solid (more so than Vick). Both are too prone to go down. Is Bradford available? Kolb? (Hearing good things from larry), one of the Skins QBs?

---------- Post added August-29th-2011 at 01:59 PM ----------

10 team keeper league with 0.5 ppr, 0.25 pts / completion.

QB: Matt Stafford, Josh Freeman

RB: LeSean McCoy, Felix Jones, Shonn Green, Javon Ringer, DeMarco Murray

WR: Calvin Johnson, Stevie Johnson, Mario Manningham, Julio Jones, Lee Evans

TE: Jermichael Finley

DST: Pittsburgh

K Gostkowski

A little worried about my RB situation. Will be watching the waiver wire closely.

Yeah, ended up with players from Dallass, NYG and Philly, but no Skins. Sigh.

I'd think about dropping Ringer and gettting Ronnie or LT, which ever is there. Think you are good with QB, you can matchup them as long as Stafford stays on the field. May be hurt if he doesn't. I would have rather jumped up and taken Schaub, Romo sits to pee or Ryan over Freeman to go along with Stafford.

But you look money everywhere else.

[RVAbrendan]

14 team league - standard scoring - no keepers. I got pick 7 and Charles fell to me.

A little worried about my receiving corps...

QB - Sam Bradford

WR- DeSean Jackson

WR- Marques Colston

WR- Kenny Britt

RB- Jamaal Charles

RB- Darren McFadden

TE- Rob Gronkowski

K- Alex Henery

DEF - NYJ

BN- Fred Jackson

BN- Michael Bush

BN- Mike Sims-Walker

BN- Rex Grossman

BN- Brent Celek

BN- Terrell Owens

BN- Anthony Armstrong

[bushwack]

There's absolutely no need to own T.O. right now.

[GibbsFactor]

Who would you rather draft in the later rounds? In the last 2 years for the league I've done the top 5-10 Kickers have outscored every flex player (WR/TE) outside of the top 20. That means a great kicker has been more valuable than most 2nd string WRs and almost every starting TE and 3rd string WR.

Janikowski scored about 160 points last year, if he was a WR that would almost have put him in the top 10 for that position. I agree that for the most part picking a kicker that's going to score in the top 5-10 for his position is crap shoot but I'd rather take a chance on one, rather than drafting some 3rd string WR that I'll end up cutting after 3 weeks.

Agreed. It depends on your league. In 12 or less team leagues, getting waiver wire quality depth does what for you exactly?

A good kicker and defense can average well over 10 a game. That's 20 points right there. You can even do both by committee.

I find a lot of times that having such great depth at the R/W position really causes you to screw up because you start playing matchups. Take the guess work out and have some solid kickers and defense. Now, I'd never take a kicker before the second to last round, but to say they are useless is not accurate at all.

[RVAbrendan]

There's absolutely no need to own T.O. right now.

You're right, but this is a deep league, and I was able to snag him up with my 15-round pick. Might as well hang onto him in the event of a successful comeback.

[Gibbsisgod2006]

You're right, but this is a deep league, and I was able to snag him up with my 15-round pick. Might as well hang onto him in the event of a successful comeback.

Cecil shorts JAX's or Brandon Gibson STL might be a better option if they are available then TO.

[ACW]

Another point to add on to Rice is the addition of FB Vonta Leach, who was leading the way for Foster last year. He will definitely help Rice, and it's been stated that Rice will be the goal line back, which is huge because Rice owners have wanted to kill McGhee in past years.

This is partly why Foster worries me.

[bushwack]

This is partly why Foster worries me.

But Houston did add Lawrence Vickers, who is a solid FB, but Foster is in one of the best offenses in the league, if not the best. With AJ drawing attention from 2 players a good amount of the time, and Owen Daniels is 100% and will take away defenders in the middle of the field. Basically teams can't stack the box to stop Foster because of the weapons the Texans have, and Foster is a 3 down back who can run, catch, and block.

[Gibbsisgod2006]

But Houston did add Lawrence Vickers, who is a solid FB, but Foster is in one of the best offenses in the league, if not the best. With AJ drawing attention from 2 players a good amount of the time, and Owen Daniels is 100% and will take away defenders in the middle of the field. Basically teams can't stack the box to stop Foster because of the weapons the Texans have, and Foster is a 3 down back who can run, catch, and block.

But with the sore hammy which can linger throughout the whole season you will probably be seeing a little more Ben Tate.

[bushwack]

But with the sore hammy which can linger throughout the whole season you will probably be seeing a little more Ben Tate.

Yeah, which is why I said several posts ago as long as his hamstring is fine, he'll finish ahead of Charles again this season. Trust me, Foster was my keeper this year, and I drafted Ben Tate last night for insurance purposes.

[Gibbsisgod2006]

Yeah, which is why I said several posts ago as long as his hamstring is fine, he'll finish ahead of Charles again this season. Trust me, Foster was my keeper this year, and I drafted Ben Tate last night for insurance purposes.

Honestly I think foster will still be a top 3 or 4 fantasy back I just see a little more potenial in a guy like Rice or AP (which he scared me until saturday night).