A Closer Look at 2011 QB Prospects:Cam Newton

[FinalBeast]

Any news on his Wonderlic score?

[mistertim]

Any news on his Wonderlic score?

180,000

[Oldskool]

- 180,000

Fixed that for you.

Any news on his Wonderlic score?

Rumor is that he and his father asked the Combine officials to pay him for the privilege of taking the test.

[number twenty-eight]

So for potential quarterbacks at ten, its shaping up that we just might have a shot at either Newton or Gabbert. I've been trying to stay enthusiastic about Gabbert, as there is a possibility that he will be a Redskin and we really need a QB, but I'm losing steam. When you combine his mild qualities with his mediocre college career, he starts to look like an elevated bust risk who lacks spectacular traits. The way I see it, Gabbert's weaknesses are all onfield while Cam's are mainly off the field.

By mild qualities, I mean Gabbert's propensity to flee the pocket from imagined pressure (often running himself into an end, or at least limiting himself to half the field for targets). Also, there is a disturbing habit of taking sacks with his back to the line of scrimmage, running away from the defense. Him struggling with pressure wouldn't be a big deal of itself, not all QBs can manage it, but I think this is what led him to throw what was the worst interception of the college postseason in my opinion, the bowl decider versus Iowa. Newton, I hope you agree, has no similar worries in the checkbox I would call competitiveness.

When I say that Gabbert had a mediocre college career, I mean that he wasn't as good as recent BigXII spread quarterbacks like Chase Daniel and Todd Reesing. And that's before getting to QBs who were excellent in that offense such as Sam Bradford and Graham Harrell. The anomaly isn't that the others were good in the spread, as its well known to be quarterback friendly, the anomaly is that Gabbert was mediocre. Among Cam's contemporaries (Smith, Young, Tebow), only Tebow's best year (2007) matches Newton's. That's one season out of seven for players who went 1st, 3rd and 25th overall against Cam's first try on a brand new team. Its why I think Gabbert cannot be said to have been a difference-making player, while Newton obviously was.

In the final analysis, they're the top two quarterback prospects this year, all things considered. I rate them as sharing equal risk, with the difference being that Gabbert's bust factors are for his play, and Cam's bust factors are character related. I prefer Cam by quite a bit, as he's shown me he's the better player. Please note that I'm not knocking Gabbert, although I have reservations about him as a pro, as much as I'm trying to demonstrate how absurdly good Newton performed. I'd still like to draft either, but my great preference lies with Newton and these are two of the reasons.

Stats are demonstrated this way:
Spread Option QB= (Year, Total Yds, Pass YPA, Rush YPA, Total TDs)
BigXII Spread QB= (Year, Pass Yds, Comp %, YPA, TDs, Rating)

Smith				        Daniel
2003 2716 08.4 3.0 20		2006 3527 63.5 7.80 28 145.06
2004 3604 09.3 4.7 42		2007 4306 68.2 7.65 33 147.88
	                     2008 4335 72.9 8.21 39 159.44
Young		
2004 2976 07.4 6.5 26		Reesing
2005 4086 09.3 6.8 38		2007 3486 61.8 7.83 33 148.93
             			2008 3888 66.5 7.86 32 148.53
Tebow		        		2009 3616 63.1 7.29 22 134.95
2007 4181 09.4 4.3 55
2008 3419 09.2 3.8 42		Bradford
2009 3805 09.2 4.2 35		2007 3121 69.5 9.15 36 176.52
             			2008 4720 67.9 9.77 50 180.84
Newton
2010 4423 10.2 5.6 51		Harrell
	             		2006 4555 66.9 7.39 38 145.78
	             		2007 5705 71.8 8.00 48 157.31
	             		2008 5111 70.6 8.17 45 160.04

	             		Gabbert
		             	2009 3593 58.9 8.07 24 140.45
		             	2010 3186 63.4 6.71 16 127.03

[Mahons21]

Thanks for compiling those stats, I've seen them before and find them to be very telling. But for some reason Gabbert is the golden boy on this website, I don't dislike the guy (as many here feel about Newton), I just don't see the reason he's considered a top 10 pick. I've said it over and over again, don't be surprised if Gabbert is there at 10 and the skins pass up on him.

Unfortunately, the only response you're going to hear about Gabbert will blame his supporting cast. Forget the fact that Chase Daniel, and UDFA completely outplayed him, Gabbert just didn't have a good team around him.

[The Tris]

Yes, it is crazy to think that a senior with 3 starting years experience and 2 NFL WRs and an NFL TE would out play a sophmore in his first starting season with half that supporting cast.

[Mahons21]

1.) Daniel threw 66 passes his first year, so I don't know if that really counts as a full year of starting experience.

2.) Why are you using the stats of Gabberts sophomore season and not his jr year after he has more experience? Could it be because he digressed?

3.) I would never expect an UDFA to outperform (to the level he did) someone who's considered a top 10 pick, in the exact same system.

4.) One of Daniel's 2 NFL WR's also played with Gabbert.

[number twenty-eight]

Gabbert wasn't even the best spread QB in the BigXII this year.

Taylor Potts
2009 3440 65.7 7.32 22 137.14
2010 3726 67.0 6.76 35 141.10


Blaine Gabbert
2009 3593 58.9 8.07 24 140.45
2010 3186 63.4 6.71 16 127.03

[The Tris]

I assume you are comparing Daniel's senior year (his 3rd year starting) with Gabbert's sophmore year, as the surrounding cast variables are the closest.

However, we can use his Jr year, when the variables are greater (and Alexander has graduated). But if we are doing this, we must account for the real differences in talent, which is a very important variable.

Otherwise, I could say Nate Longshore in 2006 as redshirt freshman out performed Aaron Rodgers in 2004 as a junior. By your logic, I would simply ignore the fact that Longshore had an important freshman WR (DeSean Jackson) that Rodgers did not.

---------- Post added March-2nd-2011 at 01:16 PM ----------

Gabbert wasn't even the best spread QB in the BigXII this year.

Taylor Potts
2009 3440 65.7 7.32 22 137.14
2010 3726 67.0 6.76 35 141.10


Blaine Gabbert
2009 3593 58.9 8.07 24 140.45
2010 3186 63.4 6.71 16 127.03

And Ryan Mallett wasn't the best pro style QB in every metric except yards in the SEC this year...

Yet he is a much higher rated propsect than McElroy.

[darrelgreenie]

It's so hard when I sit there, because we're on camera looking at wide outs and quarterbacks and I can only comment on what I see. So here's the statement I'm going to make about Cam Newton, because I know everyone's going to want to know about it. I don't take the 15 or 20 or 30 throws he made here and have it change my mind about anything. It's important to me as an evaluator is to watch as much tape as I can, and I gotta see a Quarterback live: see how the ball comes out of his hands.

That was the first opportunity to see the ball come out of his hands, and I think he was a little frustrated by his inaccuracies. He didn't throw a bunch of completions. What happens here is when you don't have your receivers, and they are throwing the 10 yard speed out and you're hitting the fifth step, and they're telling you, the coaches are telling you to throw to an area. You've been coached your entire life to complete passes, so there's a little bit of a contradiction in your head, as a kid who's never done this before. So I kind of feel empathy for these kids, and I appreciate the fact they chose to throw the football today, because they might expose exactly what you saw, which is sometimes the ball hits the ground.

So what do I think about Cam Newton? With all that as a preface nothing has changed for me. He's got a big arm, and better mechanics than Vince Young or Tim Tebow, or any of those other big guys. I still have the same questions I had coming in on Cam Newton, and for the next two months I'm going to try to answer.

Secondly, you need to figure the kid out. That's the most important thing to me at the Quarterback position. You look at the last 3 years in the NFL, they've done a great job at it. Every Quarterback's been a hit; all first round QBs have been phenomenal. So I think the NFL is doing a better job that once you get a certain baseline skill set of a QB, the most important thing to me is what kind of kid are you. You guys know me: Are you the first one in the building in the morning? Are you a leader of men? Do you watch as much tape as your QB coach? Can you process and assimilate information? They're the hard parts about evaluating the QB, more than his feet or arm strength

http://indiana.sbnation.com/notre-dame-fighting-irish/2011/2/27/2019393/2011-nfl-scouting-combine-nfl-networks-mike-mayock-shares-his-thoughts

[number twenty-eight]

And Ryan Mallett wasn't the best pro style QB in every metric except yards in the SEC this year...

Yet he is a much higher rated propsect than McElroy.

Because of his tools, of course. Do you agree that there is risk in him not being a superior college QB in a system that favors it? How do you feel about their comparative risks, Gabbert and Newton?

[Mahons21]

I assume you are comparing Daniel's senior year (his 3rd year starting) with Gabbert's sophmore year, as the surrounding cast variables are the closest. However, we can use his Jr year, when the variables are greater (and Alexander has graduated). But if we are doing this, we must account for the real differences in talent, which is a very important variable.

It's also his 2nd year starting. Do you place more value on surrounding talent or experience in the system? I can't tell.

Otherwise, I could say Nate Longshore in 2006 as redshirt freshman out performed Aaron Rodgers in 2004 as a junior. By your logic, I would simply ignore the fact that Longshore had an important freshman WR (DeSean Jackson) that Rodgers did not/

Quick comparison here:

Blaine Gabbert 2010: 16 TDs, 9 INTs, 3186 yds

Chase Daniel 2008: 39 TDs, 18 INTs, 4335

Aaron Rodgers 2004: 24 TDs, 8 INTs, 2566 yds

Nate Longshore 2006: 24 TDs, 13 INTs, 3021yds

Daniel literally more than doubled Gabbert's TD output, Longshore had the same number of TD's are Rodgers but more INTs. Daniel has around 1200 more yards than Gabbert with around 50 more attempts, Longshore has around 500 more yards with 60 more attempts.

[The Tris]

Because of his tools, of course. Do you agree that there is risk in him not being a superior college QB in a system that favors it? How do you feel about their comparative risks, Gabbert and Newton?

Same reason Gabbert and Newton will go in the top ten - because of their tools.

I think one of the worst ways to measure a prospect is simply looking at production.

I think there is risk with everyone one of the QBs in this draft. Gabbert and Newton are the two with the lowest risks, but still very real and concerning.

As for Gabbert's risks, I think they lie in two places - 1) perception of subpar performace in an offense designed to put up stats (what we are discussing) and 2) ability to deal with pressure. Everything else checks out.

As for his subpar production in a spread, I think it is important to note that Daniels averaged 514 attempts per season starting, and Gabbert averaged 455. Is that Gabbert's fault? The offense not operating at as high a level with inferior parts? The defense not stopping the other team as much? The coach designing an offense with more running plays? I don't know. It does not answer the question, but I think it does show that there is more than just one answer.

I think the far bigger risk is his pocket awareness than his production.

As for Newton, the issues have been discussed ad naseum. I have made my comments in this thread many times. I would say there is more than one or two issues with Newton as a prospect.

If we had the #1 pick, neither QB would be my choice. However, I think that if we are drafting a QB of the future, odds are highest that Gabbert would be a success, based on his skill set, his tools, and the offense we run.

[number twenty-eight]

Same reason Gabbert and Newton will go in the top ten - because of their tools.

I think one of the worst ways to measure a prospect is simply looking at production.

I think there is risk with everyone one of the QBs in this draft. Gabbert and Newton are the two with the lowest risks, but still very real and concerning.

As for Gabbert's risks, I think they lie in two places - 1) perception of subpar performace in an offense designed to put up stats (what we are discussing) and 2) ability to deal with pressure. Everything else checks out.

As for his subpar production in a spread, I think it is important to note that Daniels averaged 514 attempts per season starting, and Gabbert averaged 455. Is that Gabbert's fault? The offense not operating at as high a level with inferior parts? The defense not stopping the other team as much? The coach designing an offense with more running plays? I don't know. It does not answer the question, but I think it does show that there is more than just one answer.

I think the far bigger risk is his pocket awareness than his production.

As for Newton, the issues have been discussed ad naseum. I have made my comments in this thread many times. I would say there is more than one or two issues with Newton as a prospect.

If we had the #1 pick, neither QB would be my choice. However, I think that if we are drafting a QB of the future, odds are highest that Gabbert would be a success, based on his skill set, his tools, and the offense we run.

Good description, I like reading your take on things. In the debates I've read between the two, they devolve into arguing tools vs. tools + production - character and they end up in semantics. I just favor Cam's many tools over Gabbert's one, which I honestly have doubts about as it hasn't served him well so far. I'd still take either, I just greatly prefer Cam. And with neither being ready to go out of the box, I don't see the allure in choosing Gabbert over Cam.

[addicted]

teams could do that so he could potentially fall to them

Or his agents and handlers could put that out there to disguise the truth of it.

[The Tris]

Good description, I like reading your take on things. In the debates I've read between the two, they devolve into arguing tools vs. tools + production - character and they end up in semantics. I just favor Cam's many tools over Gabbert's one, which I honestly have doubts about as it hasn't served him well so far. I'd still take either, I just greatly prefer Cam. And with neither being ready to go out of the box, I don't see the allure in choosing Gabbert over Cam.

It would be a lot easier if Cam had Tim Tebow's character, wouldn't it?

This QB class really pisses me off. In fact the past two classes have pissed me off, being that we couldn't have what we wanted.

At the end of the day, the smart play is going to be to take the BPA. I seriously doubt that will be a QB.

[Conn]

incarceratedbob

**NFL NEWS**Source: Dolphins have made Cam Newton priority #1 at draft - Dolphins know he will not slide down so they are willing 2trade up

A guy I follow on twitter who is literally right ALL the time about things. Actually, now that I look, he's also followed by Schefter and TK.

[The Tris]

A guy I follow on twitter who is literally right ALL the time about things. Actually, now that I look, he's also followed by Schefter and TK.

With the absence of FA, I could see a particularly active draft day trade market. I would love to be a part of the teams trading down.

[TheismannQuote]

A guy I follow on twitter who is literally right ALL the time about things. Actually, now that I look, he's also followed by Schefter and TK.

Bob get's the scoop. He's often on WFAN...or used to be.

Dolphins may have worse quarterback luck than the Washington Redskins. That franchise has been doomed since Marino. Just getting dizzy thinking about all their swings and misses on QB. They need something to energize that team/fanbase and Newton would do the trick.

Still - seems early in the process to already be leaking info on your draft board

[addicted]

With the absence of FA, I could see a particularly active draft day trade market. I would love to be a part of the teams trading down.

It would be so incredibly refreshing to see us trade down to allow another team to draft this guy. Fins got pick 15, if they moved up to 10 what would we expect in return?

[mistertim]

It would be so incredibly refreshing to see us trade down to allow another team to draft this guy. Fins got pick 15, if they moved up to 10 what would we expect in return?

Nothing. Because if the Phins are stupid enough to let this leak and it is true, plenty of teams ahead of us will be posturing like they are going to take Newton.

[aarobinson]

http://rob-rang.blogs.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/13682485/27737820?source=rss_blogs_NFL%20Draft

A high-ranking NFL source countered what NFLDraftScout.com and others had reported earlier in the week that Auburn QB Cam Newton "struggled" in team interviews conducted at the Combine.

"I think that is an example of a team trying to knock the kid down," the source said. "I can tell you right now, he was very likable with us. He answered every question we had about his off-field stuff and did a great job on the white board."

I pointed out that Newton could do well in his team's interview and then struggle in another (or several), but the source referred to specific questions asked and that the offensive coaches in the meeting later characterized Newton's answers as "perfect."

"He knew where to go with the football against different schemes, where his hot read was..." the source explained. "[Newton] did it quickly and with confidence. I wasn't in the other teams' meetings, so I don't know what they asked or how he answered, obviously. I can't imagine that kid 'struggling,' though, in that kind of setting."

The conflicting stories provide a perfect example of the smokescreens that take place in the months leading up to the draft...

[Mahons21]

Interesting to note; that high-ranking official was from the Colts, and clearly they don't really have a need for a QB, so it's quite doubtful this statement was made to help posture their team. As opposed to contrary reports, which have been leaked entirely anonymously, and easily could be team officials trying to lower the stock of Cam to given their own team a higher chance in acquiring him. (this happens every year, Cam is no different).

[Going Commando]

Dolphins may have worse quarterback luck than the Washington Redskins. That franchise has been doomed since Marino. Just getting dizzy thinking about all their swings and misses on QB.

Judging by your namesake, you should know that's not true. Theismann is our trump card in any discussion about ****ty QB luck. At least the Dolphins got Marino. Not that I'm complaining about getting Darrell Green as a consolation prize, but we were one pick away from Marino ourselves. We've been searching for a franchise guy since Sonny.

Plus it's kind of the pendulum swinging back on them for having two quarterbacks at the helm for 31 years of their franchise's history.

[darrelgreenie]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mNelLuejhw0

The camera angles were lousy so I couldn't see what I wanted to watch the most.
I wanted to see his legs and the the ball leave his hands in the same frame.
Almost every drop back was obscured at some point: sometimes you couldn't see his get away from center, some times you couldn't see his footwork at the top of his drop.

He did some movement throws rollouts and sprint outs to start the workout where he didn't miss a throw but he was throwing to stationary targets.

He did some in the pocket movement drills, where he would drop back set to throw-evade then-reset and throw.
Very smooth.

Drop back portion:
He connected on the speed outs that he missed at the combine, and he threw the deep comeback ,which is probably the toughest throw, with ease; was also money on the the corner routes as well.

He also missed a few passes and there were a few drops ball all in all it was a good show.
My guess would be 52 on target passes 4 drops, 4 bad balls.

Big kid, moves well, compact motion, consistent mechanics but a kid that imo is clearly thinking about his footwork and therefore isn't a natural rhythm passer yet.