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A Closer Look at 2011 QB Prospects:Jake Locker


darrelgreenie

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Back on the topic of this thread - Jake Locker - one of the things that had me scrathing my head a little when I watched Locker on film was that he actually throws a better and more accurate ball when he is moving compared to from the pocket. I'm not sure what is happening with his mechanics exactly from the pocket - I'm leaning towards inconsistent footwork - but its strange to see a QB throw better on the run than stationery.

I think it's the footwork. Someone else, I think it was Bunting, talked about how Locker's stance fluctuates from being too wide to too narrow. He ends up changing his arm angle to compensate when he's splayed out and it in turn effects his velocity.

I think when he's throwing on the move instinct takes over. He's comfortable on the run and he doesn't have to think.

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When he's in a clean pocket and gets to set with a good base he's good.

He even makes some on target goofy footed throws in response to pressure.

But, as you note in your assessment his footwork like any other QB is effected by pressure.

Imo his footwork inconsistency has a lot to do with the quality pass protection.

For me one negative from this game was the ball security.

Its one thing for your lineman to get beat and for you to face pressure and even get sacked and i know this happens to every QB from time to time but i would have liked to see him hold on to the football.

I agree, I'm not overly worried about his footwork because I think Locker is good on occasion and I think allowances need to be made for the pressure he routinely faces. He's an extreme case like Cutler was.

Also the turnovers, I think some of the fumbling goes back to the way he carries the ball so high. There might be some carelessness at play, but in general, if a QB doesn't feel the pressure and gets hit holding the ball high, he'll fumble it more often than not.

My biggest concern with Locker is his ball placement. I think it's sporadic even when he gets time. Sometimes he'll be on the money. Then the next play he'll be off. It's very frustrating to watch. His receivers drop a lot of passes. But Locker throws off target and makes it harder for them than need be several times a game in a lot of the games I watched. Bad receivers + poor placement is a bad recipe. That's one of his biggest areas for improvement IMO.

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I misremembered in my last post and was thinking that both Locker's fumbles were in the pocket but the fumble he lost was on a scramble.

I just cringe when i see a fumble, its the coach in me.

My biggest concern with Locker is his ball placement. I think it's sporadic even when he gets time. Sometimes he'll be on the money. Then the next play he'll be off. It's very frustrating to watch.

I didn't see that in this game, i'm not saying it doesn't happen but from this game i didn't see that.

It something i'll keep a closer eye on in the next Locker game closer look.

Also, would you say he's sporadic to a greater extent then any of the other prospects?

I watched some of all the prospects but especially Locker, Gabbert and Newton and they all at times run hot and cold and they all miss some throws its typical for young QBs (for any QB really there gonna miss some throws they shouldn't every game)

sidenote: maybe we could keep track of missed/off throws during this process?

from the passing chart: these are the throws i thought could get a minus for accuracy:5,6,8,24,28,31,38

5) Shotgun: Reads progression from (L) to ® finds RB on wheel route w/ pressure in his face makes an on time+ on target+ instride- ball thrown into the endzone-incomplete pass either thrown to far in front or misjudged by the RB* a better decision on the throw may have been to throw the RB short of the endzone and force them to throttle down to make the catch easier (:56s)

6) Shotgun: Skinny Post/Slant Slot (L) reads progression on (L) throws into a tight window on time+ on target+ in stride-pass slightly too far in front of WR; Quick Release (:60s)

8) Shotgun:WR Hitch (L) rhythm throw from a clean pocket to a well covered WR on time- throw a little behind/late in the timing on target- ball was a bit too high at helmet height (WR got both hands on it but couldn't bring it in) drop

24) Shotgun: clean pocket sails ball high (throw away?) in the direction of a well covered/double covered WR (4:00)

28) Under center: Straight drop Skinny Post WR (L) OT+OT- lead WR a little too far IS- incomplete (5:16)

31) Under center:PA roll ® no pressure no one chasing him throws short of the open WR OT+OT-IS- (kinda a WTF pass? he been making this throw all game w/ pressure then w/o pressure he misses it?) (5:46)It looks like the WR may have ran past/out of the throwing window after a second look

38) Under center: PA roll out ® throwback (L) to FB? OT+OT- it looked like the FB expected the ball more toward the sideline Locker threw it more up field IS+; result drop/mis-played (7:20)

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXw6qJlFqXQ



Passing Breakdown from the passing chart in post #2:

Missed pass incomplete: (5),6,(8),28,
Scramble/on the move incomplete: (12), (31), (34), (38)
Caught passes that were off target (keep in mind these are caught passes): lol recalibrating
Drops/(receiver misplay/effort): 8, 28, 29, 39, 41, 45,(5),(38)
Throw away: (12), (24), (34)

For this game:
Instincts+Intuition-3 (2 fumbles no, no)
Competitiveness-4 (faced pressure all but executed gameplan that relied on his mobility, came back late to win, not bothered by drops etc)
Arm Strength-5 (self evident)
Complete Inventory of passes-4
Quick delivery-4
Touch-3 (missed a few throws)
Read defense-3 (offense didn't require much reading of coverages but executed the offense and made his progressions made good decisions)
Mobility+Avoidance-4 (graded down b/c of the fumbles would've been a 5)
Function while injured- N/A
Not easily rattled-4
Spontaneous decision/play making-4
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The Fifth Down: The New York Times NFL Blog

January 27, 2011, 7:00 am

Senior Bowl, Day 3: Risers, Fallers and Steady as They Go

By CECIL LAMMEY AND MATT WALDMAN

...

Film study remains the best way to learn about rookie prospects, but the ability to watch players respond to coaching and see their physical builds at the weigh-ins are two things that make the trip to college all-star games worthwhile.

After watching three days of practice, here are the players we believe notably increased or decreased their standing among talent evaluators.

...

Fallers

All of these prospects left with diminished impressions of their skills because they displayed additional flaws that a few days of coaching weren’t going to immediately change.

QB Jake Locker, Washington: The former N.F.L. scout and “GM Jr.” author Russ Lande sums up Locker best. The much-talked-about Washington star is a likeable man. He’s a tough football player with strong fundamental techniques as a quarterback. But he has not been accurate. According to Lande, who learned his craft under the likes of Dick Vermeil and is known for strong pre-draft grades for Tom Brady and Marc Bulger, if a quarterback does everything well technically but still isn’t accurate, there isn’t much you can do with him. Locker is beginning to look like that player on passes in the intermediate range of the field, which is were N.F.L. starters earn their salary.

...

Risers

None of these players made a drastic jump from the impressions gleaned from their game film, but they each demonstrated an extra dimension to their games or the ability to respond quickly to coaching.

QB Colin Kaepernick, Nevada: Kaepernick’s weigh-in made a positive impression on those in attendance. He has more muscle mass than his pads suggest on film, which gives scouts confidence that he has the strength to play the position. On the field he proved to be more capable as a passer and he went through his reads adequately. Kaepernick, a long-limbed quarterback who played from the pistol at Nevada, had a better initial burst than many expected. Defenders in practice knew that the option play keeper to the corner was coming, but they still couldn’t beat Kaepernick to the edge. He also had the higher-tier velocity that could elevate his status to a second-day pick.

QB Greg McElroy, Alabama: Expectations might have been too low for McElroy entering this week. His on-field intelligence to work the pocket and find open targets downfield was the best of all the quarterbacks on either roster. But he lacks the elite arm that N.F.L. teams seek from a franchise quarterback. McElroy will make a roster and he could develop into an effective starter. Right now, he looks like a backup that should develop over the long term because of his smarts, aggressive downfield mentality and efficiency.

Seemingly reasonable observations that may prove to be false:

  • The earth is flat.
  • The sun revolves around the earth.
  • Jake Locker had a low college completion rate because of a weak supporting cast.
  • Mel Kiper, Todd McShay and other so-called experts who have called Locker a top first-round talent, are paid for actual expertise as opposed to the perception and marketing of expertise, much like actors playing doctors.

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Seemingly reasonable observations that may prove to be false:

[*]Jake Locker had a low college completion rate because of a weak supporting cast.

[*]Mel Kiper, Todd McShay and other so-called experts who have called Locker a top first-round talent, are paid for actual expertise as opposed to the perception and marketing of expertise, much like actors playing doctors.

No one who know anything about the draft thinks Kiper and McShay are experts.

They experts at creating a summary of the consensus perception but they're not experts from an evaluation perspective they're not even scouts.

Mike Mayock who is more scout then pundit says this about Locker which frames Locker's perception and his flaw quite well:

Mayock describes Locker's issues best here and its not a question of accuracy (which is the often parroted flaw about Locker probably due to his comp %) but Mayock describes Locker's flaw as accuracy effected by vision or lack thereof in the pocket (which often happens behind an overmatched OL like Washington's):

Now here's the deal: Outside the pocket, he's wonderful. Very accurate, athletic, big arm. Gifted kid. Inside the pocket is the issue. His accuracy goes down and his vision goes down.

Analyst: Locker remains a top-15 draft pick

More seemingly reasonable observations that are false:

ASF can make unbaised evaluations of QB prospects based on their on the field play.

ASF can create a thread about a QB prospect without shamefully pushing that prospect as better then they are while attempting to tear down other prospects.

ASF can refrain from trolling in a thread that's a discussion of the Washington State vs USC as an evalution for Locker.

ASF i don't get you?

You get all bent out of shape when fair questions about your opinions are asked yet you choose to unfairly spam and troll other people threads.

Although you've been so obviously promoting McElroy in your thread and have been painting a one-sided picture of McElroy this thread is a discussion of an actual game not a promotion of Locker.

It would be great if you wanted to discuss this game or post another game for group discussion.

But, there is really no cause to post about McElroy in this thread when you're pushing him in about 2 other threads.

The aim of this thread was an unbiased evaluation of Locker from this game and despite my sig i think i do a pretty good job of keeping a balanced view.

If you're gonna post Senior Bowl updates which have no bearing on the purpose of this thread at least post both sides.

But, we already know that's your intent is to promote your opinion of Locker and your agenda for McElroy.

Call it another solid day for Washington quarterback Jake Locker at the Senior Bowl. Over the last two practices, Locker put concerns about his shaky first day to rest, putting together strong, consistent performances at the Senior Bowl. Running through a variety of different situational drills, Locker impressed, distancing himself from the rest of the quarterbacks in Mobile, Alabama — including Nevada’s Colin Kaepernick and Ricky Stanzi.

RealGM praised Locker’s performance, noting his improved accuracy and solid mechanics on Wednesday. As expected, Locker was best working outside the pocket, where he’s free to use his mobility to his advantage.

He looks comfortable taking the snap and scanning the field. And his accuracy today was improved. On a rollout drill Locker was very confident throwing across his body and kept his feet under him when delivering the ball, something the other two QBs didn’t do once. In a red zone drill he consistently fired the ball high to the back line (as designed) with real zip but also catchable balls.

The knock on Locker was his ability to make the tough throws to the sideline, the area he had the most inconsistency. Locker struggled to square-up and deliver an accurate ball to his right side, one of the harder throws to make.

All things considered, Locker has done nothing to hurt his stock at the Senior Bowl, and may find himself rising as practices come to a close. Outside of the first day, he’s been consistent, accurate and has showcased his abilities in front of a bevy of scouts.

http://seattle.sbnation.com/washington-huskies/2011/1/26/1957933/2011-senior-bowl-jake-locker-practice-recap-draft-stock

From a pure mechanical perspective, it's clear to see that Locker is the most well-developed of the three -- whether in shotgun or under center, he looked poised and natural dropping back, rolls out easily, and throws out of motion as well as any quarterback I've seen in a long time. Locker also has the quickest release and a compact motion that will serve him very well in the NFL.......That play was set up by Jake Locker's ability to sell hard play-action -- another skill Locker has shown this week.

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/blog/shutdown_corner/post/Wednesday-Senior-Bowl-Notes-Morning-Practice?urn=nfl-312852#remaining-content

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we already know that's your intent is to promote your opinion of Locker and your agenda for McElroy.

You are confused about my intent and agenda. Locker and McElroy are flavors of the year. It's not about Locker and McElroy (for me). They just happen to be this year's poster boys for wildly conflicting approaches to evaluating and projecting QB talent.

My actual agenda is to expose the complete buffoonery of NFL franchises, scouts, media and draftniks (as group performance) when it comes to projecting college QBs for the NFL, while testing and debating statistical filters (models for projecting NFL QBs) applied to consenus draft rankings based on scouting reports. It's my opinion based on strong evidence that the combination is exceptionally effective and accurate -- and much more so than either the consensus ranking or statistical projections alone.

I have no opinion about Jake Locker other than what the model tells me. I have a dissenting opinion when people post opinions contradicted by the model, such as the idea that completion percentage is very strongly affected by the talent around the QB. This is my pet peeve with most supporting opinions about Locker. As for McElroy, I had not seen him throw a pass until the past two weeks, by deliberate aversion. Generally I have tried to avoid the bias that inevitably comes from watching a quarterback play. I'd rather work with the consensus draft ranking as an average of all first-hand impressions, then filter that with a statistical model. At a certain point it becomes necessary to watch the QB in order to respond more directly to people making various points in the debate. And so I have.

I've avoided McElroy's interviews. I see YouTube clips in searches, showing various interviews, and I don't play them. I wish to avoid strong feelings about the person, in order to focus on actual performance. Patrick Ramsey tought me that lesson.

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You might recall a particular throw from the USC game where he faces pressure then steps up in the pocket and actually jumps to complete the pass.

I mention this b/c he seemed to jump for no reason at all.

But, and i'm just spit balling here i think he jumped b/c his feet weren't right or weren't set for him to throw and by jumping he just by-passed that whole footwork process and relied on his throwing mechanics.

Ya I remember one or two plays from the video you posted where Locker jumped inside the pocket to deliver his throw. I agree his footwork is a contributing factor, I think another would be throwing lanes. If you're line is collapsing on you every play you don't really have many open windows to get rid of the ball, Locker took it upon himself to make a throwing lane.

^^@ the 1:50 mark:

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Let's see some of Locker's other games. He can't live off that USC game forever. I kid, I kid.

Edit: thought this was the 2009 USC game.

It really is crazy though. Some folks say he's worth the 10-15 pick and then others really don't think much of him.

Here's what Adam Caplan said after watching him all week at the senior bowl.

“I don’t see how … Locker will be selected in the first round. … His passing mechanics continue to be a big issue. He rarely put together two accurate passes in a row … The most important characteristic for a quarterback to possess is ability to throw the ball accurately — something which has plagued him throughout his career.”

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Let's see some of Locker's other games. He can't live off that USC game forever. I kid, I kid.

Edit: thought this was the 2009 USC game.

It really is crazy though. Some folks say he's worth the 10-15 pick and then others really don't think much of him.

Here's what Adam Caplan said after watching him all week at the senior bowl.

“I don’t see how … Locker will be selected in the first round. … His passing mechanics continue to be a big issue. He rarely put together two accurate passes in a row … The most important characteristic for a quarterback to possess is ability to throw the ball accurately — something which has plagued him throughout his career.”

mcnabb wasnt accurate and went to like 4 NFC championship games and won the division like 6 times lol.

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mcnabb wasnt accurate and went to like 4 NFC championship games and won the division like 6 times lol.

This is true. But after least season, I'm pretty sure the Shanahans are sick of seeing balls bounce in front of open receivers.

Draft should be interesting. Remember, Shanahan showed no interest in Cutler before he drafted him, so all this "Shanahan loves Locker" stuff means nothing. I would be shocked if we took him at ten.

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mcnabb wasnt accurate and went to like 4 NFC championship games and won the division like 6 times lol.

And he came to Washington and got benched for Rex Grossman...

---------- Post added January-28th-2011 at 06:42 PM ----------

Skins will talk to hundreds of college players up to the draft and select a handful of them. I think its more of a possibility that MV7 is a Redskin next season than Jake Locker, depending on the cba of course.

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And he came to Washington and got benched for Rex Grossman...

---------- Post added January-28th-2011 at 06:42 PM ----------

Skins will talk to hundreds of college players up to the draft and select a handful of them. I think its more of a possibility that MV7 is a Redskin next season than Jake Locker, depending on the cba of course.

lol true he did.

and id bet a trillion dollars mike vick will not be a redskin.

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mcnabb wasnt accurate and went to like 4 NFC championship games and won the division like 6 times lol.
This is true. But after least season, I'm pretty sure the Shanahans are sick of seeing balls bounce in front of open receivers.

When McNabb was starting, DC-area McDonalds were offering a burger they called The McNabb. You order it, and the cashier throws it on the ground 5 feet in front of you.

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It really is crazy though. Some folks say he's worth the 10-15 pick and then others really don't think much of him.

Here's what Adam Caplan said after watching him all week at the senior bowl.

“I don’t see how … Locker will be selected in the first round. … His passing mechanics continue to be a big issue. He rarely put together two accurate passes in a row … The most important characteristic for a quarterback to possess is ability to throw the ball accurately — something which has plagued him throughout his career.”

I guess it depends on which people you trust.

And wether you trust what you've seen with your own eyes.

I trust my eyes and the opinions of Mike Mayock and Gil Brandt and several others.

I have no idea what Adam Caplan credentials are but i do know that these were his projetcions and assessments from last years Senior Bowl:

Ratings Explanation

6=Elite

5=Long-time/solid NFL starter

4=Low-end starter

3=No. 2 quarterback

2=No. 3 quarterback

1=practice squad player

Note: All six quarterbacks were rated on a six-point grading system. 6 being the highest, 1 being the lowest.

The ratings are based purely on ability/talent/skill. Character, leadership, and non-football playing factors were not taken into consideration because those issues will be resolved by NFL teams as we get closer to the draft.

Tony Pike/Cincinnati/North

Arm Strength: 5.0

Comments: Pike has an ideal NFL arm. You can see how the ball comes out of his hands with power and torque. Because of the power in his passes, he was willing to take some chances.

Accuracy: 4.5

Comments: Like many quarterbacks with a strong arm, Pike tended to have a small problem with shorter passes that required touch. However, he was very good on intermediate or deeper passes.

Pocket Awareness/Movement: 4.5

Comments: He did a good job with his footwork. He also had precise movement on his five and seven-step drops.

Mechanics: 4.25

Comments: Pike has a high release point and he does a nice job of putting the ball back on his throwing motion. This helps him get more power into his passes.

Numerical Grade: 4.55

Comments: There's no question that Pike projects to be a starter down the road at the NFL level. He has what personnel evaluators want--size and arm strength.

Round Target: 2-3

Comments: Pike is what scouts look for in a quarterback. He's big and has a solid arm. Those traits will help get him selected early in the draft.

Jarrett Brown/West Virginia/South

Arm Strength: 4.75

Comments: He reminded me of former NFL QB Rohan Davey, but in a better sense. Brown has a strong arm and he's willing to throw the ball into tighter windows. NFL personnel evaluators love when a young quarterback is willing to make tough throws. The passing windows are tighter on the NFL level, so Brown probably won over some scouts this week.

Accuracy: 4.25

Comments: For the most part, Brown was pretty accurate this week. He was a bit inconsistent with shorter passes that required a bit more touch on the ball.

Pocket Awareness/Movement: 4.25

Comments: Brown did a good job of knowing where his receivers were most of the time.

Mechanics: 4.0

Comments: His footwork was good for the most part. Brown had a consistent release point, but was able to throw from different platforms when necessary.

Numerical Grade: 4.31

Comments: There was probably no quarterback that helped himself more this week in Mobile than Brown. He was very consistent from the outset of practices this week on Monday.

Round Target: 3-4

Comments: There's no question that Brown helped himself this week. He could go even higher if he has a strong NFL combine and pro day.

Sean Canfield/Oregon State/North

Arm Strength: 1.75

Comments: Canfield probably had the weakest arm of the the six quarterbacks in Mobile this week. He simply can't drive the ball at all down field.

Accuracy: 4.0

Comments: What stood out with Canfield was his accuracy. While he doesn't have a good arm, he still puts the ball where it needs to be on shorter to intermediate routes.

Pocket Awareness/Movement: 4

Comments: He did a decent job of evading the rush this week. He seemed to have a good sense of where his intended targets were on the field.

Mechanics: 3.25

Comments: Canfield's footwork wasn't great this week, but it was good enough for him to throw the ball from where he was on the field.

Numerical Grade: 3.25

Comments: His accuracy could help overcome his obvious lack of arm strength.

Round Target: 5-6

Comments: There's going to be a place in the NFL for a guy like Canfield. While he showed to have well less than an ideal arm, his accuracy was very good. That will help him gain notice on the final day of the draft.

Tim Tebow/Florida/South

Arm Strength: 2.5

Comments: It was quite evident from his first snap on Monday that Tebow had a below average NFL arm. Because his mechanics were off, that took power off his passes. He also needs to get more force into his throws.

Accuracy: 3.25

Comments: His accuracy was better later in the week. However, because of his poor mechanics, Tebow had problems hitting even open receivers at times. Every once in a while he threw the ball better down field, but he was still way too inconsistent in that area. What he did well was throw some fades passes with good touch.

Pocket Awareness/Movement: 4.50

Comments: Creating functional space to throw the ball wasn't a problem for Tebow at all. He seemed to have a decent understanding of where to go with the ball this week.

Mechanics: 1.25

Comments: Tebow's release point is a big problem. He's unable to get enough power into his throws because of where he releases the ball. He also tends to hold the ball too low and it takes him too long to get the ball out of his left hand. His footwork also needs to be more consistent.,

Numerical Grade: 2.88

Comments: Whichever team drafts Tebow will have a full understanding of what he is and what he isn't. He has a below average NFL arm, but moves very well in and outside the pocket. If he can get his mechanics straightened out, he'll have a chance to move up the draft chart at the next level.

Round Target: 5-6

Comments: Based on the obvious issue with his mechanics, Tebow is likely to drop to the third day of the draft. The only way he goes off the board higher is if a team thinks he can play another position.

---------- Post added January-28th-2011 at 01:49 PM ----------

Let's see some of Locker's other games. He can't live off that USC game forever. I kid, I kid.

I would gladly post and breakdown any game available on youtube that you suggest if you agree to point out which plays support your points about Locker?

Seriously.

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lol true he did.

and id bet a trillion dollars mike vick will not be a redskin.

Well Mike Vick has went from " I want to stay in philly" to " I'm going to let my agent handle everything and see what happens " . I don't think at this time Vick will leave philly but obviously he is looking for the best contract/situation he can get so anything is possible however I don't see it happening just like I don't see locker at 10 either.

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Without breaking down film but with the benefit of having watch 75% of Locker's starts as a UW alum and Husky fan, here is my opinion:

He'd be a really good safety.

But not an NFL QB.

The aim of this thread is to actually breakdown film specifically the USC game.

So in this case your claim of having the benefit of watching 75% of Locker's isn't much of benefit.

Unless of course you have photographic recall.

I know that you aren't some idiot troll who's just gonna spam and run to hide your ignorance.

I'm sure your next post will show specific examples from the USC game that support your view that Locker should play safety right?

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The aim of this thread is to actually breakdown film specifically the USC game.

So in this case your claim of having the benefit of watching 75% of Locker's isn't much of benefit.

Unless of course you have photographic recall.

I know that you aren't some idiot troll who's just gonna spam and run to hide your ignorance.

I'm sure your next post will show specific examples from the USC game that support your view that Locker should play safety right?

You're going to declare that he's an accurate QB based on 1 game? Ha. I've seen countless overthrows, blown TDs on deep balls sailing over a WR's heads, staring down WRs as a 5th year senior... He throws far too many WTF balls.

You know how Mark Sanchez sails balls all the time? It was certainly a talking point before/during the AFC Championship. Coached in college by Steve Sarkisian.

Jake Locker sails passes too. Who coached him the past 2 years?

Of all teams Locker played in the past 2 years you cannot use game film against USC to prove he's good. Sorry. Using film against USC for Locker shows how little you follow Pac-10 football.

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Without breaking down film but with the benefit of having watch 75% of Locker's starts as a UW alum and Husky fan, here is my opinion:

He'd be a really good safety.

But not an NFL QB.

See, here's another thing scary about this guy. Even fans of his team (and it seems to be common) think he's not very good, that and a lot of scouts are saying he's not 1st round quality. Considering how much fans usually defend their guy and this guy gets almost no support. I guess you could take it either way since fans really don't know much but it's interesting that he's already getting the "McNabb treatment" and he's not even in the league yet. A true sign of an overrated inaccurate QB?

To me I think that any interest shown by the team is just a smokescreen for who they are really after. Shanahan doesn't advertise his interest in players.

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