Homer: 10 stats from Redskins 2010 season

[themurf]

(photo by Brian Murphy)

1. I cannot stress to you how awful Rex Grossman is at protecting the football. Seriously, words aren’t enough, so I’ll turn to numbers to illustrate my point. Grossman, as you know doubt know by now, turned the football over eight times in his brief time as a starting quarterback.

Conversely, Donovan McNabb coughed up the ball 16 times in 13 games. Over the course of a full 16-game season, McNabb was on pace to turn the ball over 20 times. I think we can all agree that’s not very good — especially for a quarterback who is, statistically speaking, one of the least intercepted passers in NFL history.

So how bad was Grossman? If he continued to be as careless with the football over the course of an entire 16-game season, he’d turn the ball over an astounding 43 times. That’s impressive, even for a guy with 56 turnovers in 37 career games played.

2. Speaking of Grossman, in addition to being a turnover machine, he’s also fairly predictable as well.

When attempting passes outside of the numbers, Grossman went 20 of 44 for 230 yards with one touchdown and four interceptions. That’s good enough to earn him a 31.4 quarterback rating.

Now, let’s compare that to his statistics between when attempting passes in the middle of the field. In those situations, Grossman completed 54 of 68 passes for 654 yards, with six touchdowns and no interceptions. That’s good enough to earn a 136.1 passer rating.

To recap: Grossman gets sacked once every eight times he drops back, he has no real pocket presence which is why he was on pace to set records for the most turnovers in a season and he can only complete passes in the middle of the field. But other than that, he’s great.

Unless your last name is Shanahan, you better pray like hell the Redskins use a draft pick on a quarterback.

3. Sticking with the passing game, receiver Santana Moss set a career high for receptions in a season with 93, which is the second most in franchise history behind Art Monk’s record 106 catches in 1984. If it seemed like the Redskins went to Moss early and often, it’s because they did.

In fact, Moss was targeted 145 times – which comes out to 24.3 percent of the team’s total pass attempts. The only NFL receivers who saw the ball come their way more often in 2010 were Roddy White, Reggie Wayne, Larry Fitzgerald, Brandon Lloyd and Brandon Marshall.

One more random nugget about Moss – he’s a much more dangerous player on the road than he is at FedEx Field. In home games this season, Moss had 55 catches for 585 yards (10.6 yards per catch) and one touchdown. But away from home, Moss caught 38 passes for 530 yards (13.9 yards per catch) and five touchdowns.

4. It should come as no surprise that the second-most targeted Redskin was tight end Chris Cooley, who had 126 passes thrown his way (21 percent). In related news, Cooley finished the season with 77 catches for 849 yards and three touchdowns.

But what is interesting to me is disparity in Cooley’s production from the first half to the second half. In the first half of games, Cooley had 29 catches for 313 yards and one touchdown. During the second half though, his numbers jumped to 45 catches for 499 yards and two touchdowns.

Digging a little deeper, here’s Cooley’s catches broken down by quarter – 16 in the first, 13 in the second, 19 in the third and 26 catches in the fourth quarter. So if you were one of the fans complaining that the offense often times forgot about their Pro Bowl tight end until the second half … well, the stats seem to back you up.

5. While we’re on the subject of tight ends, I wanted to point out one more area of interest. Specifically, I want to talk about the most under-utilized weapon on the roster – Fred Davis.

We’ve already established that 45 percent of the team’s pass attempts go to Moss and Cooley. Davis, on the other hand, was targeted just 28 times in 2010 season (which translates to four percent).

But even though the ball rarely comes his way, Davis makes the most of his limited opportunities. In his three seasons in Washington, Davis has 72 catches for 852 yards. During that same timeframe, Cooley has 189 catches for 2,030 yards.

Where Davis stands out though is the touchdown department – hauling in nine TDs compared to just six for Cooley. If the coaches are smart, they’ll go to Cooley early and often, but if they want to see more consistent production in the red zone, they’ll start drawing up plays for Davis.

One final stat on Davis – all three of his touchdowns this season came in the first half.

6. If it seems like running back Ryan Torain specialized in getting off to a fast start this season, it’s because he did.

During the 2010 season, Torain had 91 first-half rushing attempts for 477 yards (5.2 yards per carry) and two touchdowns.

In the second half though, Torain was far less effective – rushing 70 times for 269 yards (3.8 yards per carry) and two touchdowns.

Along the same lines, in his first 10 attempts for a game, Torain had 96 attempts for 473 yards (4.9 yards per carry). In attempts 11 through 20, Torain carried 63 times for 229 yards (3.6 yards per carry).

Those numbers suggest that as the game goes on Torain starts to wear down, which makes sense given his physical style of play.

Those numbers – even before the words “injury prone” come into play – don’t exactly make the argument that Torain should be considered a lock to be the feature back in 2011.

Click here for the full article.

[authentic]

6. If it seems like running back Ryan Torain specialized in getting off to a fast start this season, it’s because he did.

During the 2010 season, Torain had 91 first-half rushing attempts for 477 yards (5.2 yards per carry) and two touchdowns.

In the second half though, Torain was far less effective – rushing 70 times for 269 yards (3.8 yards per carry) and two touchdowns.

Along the same lines, in his first 10 attempts for a game, Torain had 96 attempts for 473 yards (4.9 yards per carry). In attempts 11 through 20, Torain carried 63 times for 229 yards (3.6 yards per carry).

Those numbers suggest that as the game goes on Torain starts to wear down, which makes sense given his physical style of play.

Those numbers – even before the words “injury prone” come into play – don’t exactly make the argument that Torain should be considered a lock to be the feature back in 2011..

Another really good article Murf...However, couldn't the arguement be made that the Oline (not necessarily Torain) have worn down in the second half? Or perhaps teams have made half time adjustments to take away the run by stacking the box? I say this because, our second half woes through out the season haven't just been limited to the run game, but it has involved the entire offense.

[themurf]

Another really good article Murf...However, couldn't the arguement be made that the Oline (not necessarily Torain) have worn down in the second half? Or perhaps teams have made half time adjustments to take away the run by stacking the box? I say this because, our second half woes through out the season haven't just been limited to the run game, but it has involved the entire offense.

You're absolutely right -- the offensive line plays a part in it. And some guys on the offensive line, like say right tackle Jammal Brown, have been better in pass protection than in the ground game this season. But Torain has to be accountable for his statistics. If he gets credit for looking strong in the first half (5.2 yards per carry), then he deserves the same level of attention for the drop-off in his second-half production (3.8 yards). Oh, and I left this out of the article, but Torain picked up 24 first downs in the first half, compared to only 11 in the second half.

He's still running behind the same offensive line, he's just not doing as well in the second half. How much credit/blame you want to give Torain for his 2010 season is ultimately up to you though.

[gortiz]

(photo by Brian Murphy)

here for the full article.

good stuff murf ... this is junk food for a stats junkie like me.

i would wait and see how ryan holds up next year and make him your #1 going in. let's not forget, dude is young, not rookie young but he'll be 25 next year? I think he is still growing.

plus, i have never, in my life see a coach call as many running plays, for the same player, like shanny did for ryan in the 1st Q of that tampa game. that was mind boggeling. but ryan kept his wind ... and kept chugging. very impressive. i think he has great stamina ... just needs to get use to the pounding.

[TMK9973]

#6 is a little misleading because of the Tampa game. Torain had what? 200+ yards in the 1st half, and like 30 in the second? A clear outliner.

[authentic]

You're absolutely right -- the offensive line plays a part in it. And some guys on the offensive line, like say right tackle Jammal Brown, have been better in pass protection than in the ground game this season. But Torain has to be accountable for his statistics. If he gets credit for looking strong in the first half (5.2 yards per carry), then he deserves the same level of attention for the drop-off in his second-half production (3.8 yards). Oh, and I left this out of the article, but Torain picked up 24 first downs in the first half, compared to only 11 in the second half.

He's still running behind the same offensive line, he's just not doing as well in the second half. How much credit/blame you want to give Torain for his 2010 season is ultimately up to you though.

Point taken, and i hate to be overly simplistic, but we all know that an offense lives and dies by the Offensive Line. Just think back to all of those plays that were doomed because the interior of the opposing defense were in the back field at the snap of the ball. Sure, Torain did make some plays when protection broke down, but put most of the blame/success on the play of the Oline....but thats just me.

[themurf]

#6 is a little misleading because of the Tampa game. Torain had what? 200+ yards in the 1st half, and like 30 in the second? A clear outliner.

Ryan Torain carried the ball 164 times this season. All 164 carries are factored in. I can't spin stats to make up for the fact that the Redskins offense forgets about players (such as Chris Cooley in the first half of games). I can simply put the stats out there and you're free to take from them whatever you'd like.

[ytrain98]

A clear outliner.

A wat?

[Hitman21ST]

I think Rak's gonna ratchet it up this coming year. Two years and he's still getting used to playing in the cold. I agree on your points murf, but I don't think it's telling for years to come.

[Gibbs Hog Heaven]

When you read it in black and white it get's even more frustrating on the bonehead OC,

When you've so little talent, to target one of the few talented players you do have at your disposal, a player who's a serious threat EVERY time he get's the ball in his hands, a mere 28 times through the year is nothing short of criminal.

There's WAY more questions than answers on Kyle going forward.

Hail.

[jflow78]

I love your articles, just wanted to go a little deeper with #1's stats.

McNabb fumbled the ball 7 times (6 were recovered by the Skins) and threw 15 INTs, in 13 games, which works out to about 5 turnovers in 3 games, if all those fumbles had been picked up by the other team. Grossman turned the ball over 7 times in 3 games (one fumble was in the Detroit game, so, technically it's a seperate game and not one of the final 3 he started). So, the actual ratio (if we're counting every time the QB gives the defense a chance at the ball, instead of just the times the defense picks up the fumble) is like McNabb 1.375 turnovers per game, vs Grossman's 2.333 turnovers per game, so one more turnover per game.

Just to carry this line of thinking out further, Grossman threw 7 TDs in 3 games, which is pretty impressive, especially considering McNabb only threw 14 in 13 games. If we average both their stats out over a whole season, then their stats would have been:

McNabb:

4,156 yards, 259.75 yards per game, for 17 TDs and 1.3 turnover opportunities

Grossman:

4,714 yards, 294.62 yards per game, for 37 TDs and 2.3 turnover opportunities

So with McNabb, you get 1 less turnovers per game, and 1.3 less TDs than you get with Grossman.

Both these QBs, with these stats, would have been ranked like this in the league this season:

McNabb:

5th in total yards, 8th in yards per game, tied for 19th in TDs, and 6th worst for INTs.

Grossman:

1st in total yards, tied for 1st in yards per game, 1st in TDs, and 3rd worst for INTs.

To show how the fumble numbers actually work out, they would have ranked like this for fumbles: (This is their average over the entire season, or, if they actually started 16 games, their actual number of fumbles)

1. Henne (1.066)

2. Clausen (1.230)

Orton (1.230)

4. Hill (1.454)

5. Tom Brady (2)

Peyton Manning (2)

7. Rodgers (2.133)

Cassel (2.133)

9. Palmer (3)

Ryan (3)

11. Favre (3.692)

12. Rivers (4)

Freeman (4)

14. Collins (4.8)

15. Fitzpatrick (4.923)

16. Eli Manning (5)

Sanchez (5)

18. Roethlisberger (5.333)

19. Alex Smith (5.818)

20. Bradford (6)

21. Kitna (6.4)

22. Anderson (6.666)

23. Hasselbeck (6.857)

Garrard (6.857)

25. Flacco (7)

Schaub (7)

27. Vick (8)

28. McNabb (8.615)

Campbell (8.615)

30. Brees (9)

31. Cutler (9.6)

32. Grossman (37.3) (:yikes:)

To be fair, this was the worst 3 game fumbling stretch of his career (also the worst 13 game fumbling streak of McNabb's career). During his only 16 game season of his career, he fumbled 5 only times, that was his worst fumbling season.

Later, I might look at if their fumble ranking correlates to the # times they've been sacked, or the ranking there.

[charles mannley]

When you read it in black and white it get's even more frustrating on the bonehead OC,

When you've so little talent, to target one of the few talented players you do have at your disposal, a player who's a serious threat EVERY time he get's the ball in his hands, a mere 28 times through the year is nothing short of criminal.

There's WAY more questions than answers on Kyle going forward.

Hail.

There was A LOT of dropped passes this year by Cooley and a lot of them were first downs Hence first downs sustain drives and sustained drives pad stats.

I was hoping you had the stats for dropped passes, dropped passes for first down, and the percentages.

[Rypien1191]

Here's two more:

1. We were the only team not to beat an opponent by more than 6 points.

2. We only outgained our opponent in THREE of 16 games (and still lose 2 of those).

[Annonymous Source]

Here's two more:

1. We were the only team not to beat an opponent by more than 6 points.

2. We only outgained our opponent in THREE of 16 games (and still lose 2 of those).

Wait, is that first one for real? Carolina won one of their two games by a touchdown? Wow, no wonder every game seemed to come down to the last play...

[Hitman21ST]

Carolina beat Arizona 19-12

[Annonymous Source]

Carolina beat Arizona 19-12

Oh wow. That is just scary.

[Hitman21ST]

Oh wow. That is just scary.

And the week before Arizona beat Denver by 30, 43-13

[TheLongshot]

Those numbers – even before the words “injury prone” come into play – don’t exactly make the argument that Torain should be considered a lock to be the feature back in 2011.

Well, I don't think there will be a "feature back" next year. Torain will be teamed up with someone, likely Portis. That would be a pretty dangerous combination.

[themurf]

Well, I don't think there will be a "feature back" next year. Torain will be teamed up with someone, likely Portis. That would be a pretty dangerous combination.

I'd be stunned if Clinton Portis was here next season.

[authentic]

Well, I don't think there will be a "feature back" next year. Torain will be teamed up with someone, likely Portis. That would be a pretty dangerous combination.

I seriously doubt Portis will be back. I can't invision the org paying him all of that money to walk around the sidelines in sweats for another season.

[Hooper]

I love your articles, just wanted to go a little deeper with #1's stats.

McNabb fumbled the ball 7 times (6 were recovered by the Skins) and threw 15 INTs, in 13 games, which works out to about 5 turnovers in 3 games, if all those fumbles had been picked up by the other team. Grossman turned the ball over 7 times in 3 games (one fumble was in the Detroit game, so, technically it's a seperate game and not one of the final 3 he started). So, the actual ratio (if we're counting every time the QB gives the defense a chance at the ball, instead of just the times the defense picks up the fumble) is like McNabb 1.375 turnovers per game, vs Grossman's 2.333 turnovers per game, so one more turnover per game.

Just to carry this line of thinking out further, Grossman threw 7 TDs in 3 games, which is pretty impressive, especially considering McNabb only threw 14 in 13 games. If we average both their stats out over a whole season, then their stats would have been:

McNabb:

4,156 yards, 259.75 yards per game, for 17 TDs and 1.3 turnover opportunities

Grossman:

4,714 yards, 294.62 yards per game, for 37 TDs and 2.3 turnover opportunities

So with McNabb, you get 1 less turnovers per game, and 1.3 less TDs than you get with Grossman.

Both these QBs, with these stats, would have been ranked like this in the league this season:

McNabb:

5th in total yards, 8th in yards per game, tied for 19th in TDs, and 6th worst for INTs.

Grossman:

1st in total yards, tied for 1st in yards per game, 1st in TDs, and 3rd worst for INTs.

Great post.

I love ya Murf, but your bias toward McNabb has been evident from day one. I love McNabb. I wanted him to succeed here. But at some point, you have to be objective. You were as forgiving of McNabb as you were critical of Grossman. Especially on your twitter feed.

You know who has been objective? The players. His teammates in Philly hated him last year according to a sports agent I know who reps several of them. And the silence regarding McNabb has been deafening since Grossman took over.

Again, I'm a big fan of your writing. Just thought your personal feelings toward McNabb and the coaches got in the way here.

[themurf]

Great post.

I love ya Murf, but your bias toward McNabb has been evident from day one. I love McNabb. I wanted him to succeed here. But at some point, you have to be objective. You were as forgiving of McNabb as you were critical of Grossman. Especially on your twitter feed.

You know who has been objective? The players. The silence regarding McNabb has been deafening since Grossman took over. Which says more about where McNabb is as a player now than anything else.

So let me get this straight - I'm supposed to ignore a decade's worth of their work when forming my my opinions on both McNabb and Grossman? Sorry sparky, that's not going to happen. McNabb's resume is as good as anyone other than Tom Brady or Peyton Manning in recent history while Grossman had one magically season as a starter in Chicago in an otherwise forgettable NFL career. I've got too much history watching both of them succeed and fail to magically erase everything as soon as they play for the Redskins.

And as for your theory that "silence is deafening," you're reaching. Players know McNabb is gone. So why bring unnecessary drama into your own life by blasting the boss you've still got to work for? I might like my co-worker and consider him a true friend, but if he gets run out of town and I still have to work in the same office under the same boss, I'm not committing career suicide just for the sake of letting the world know I think my buddy was wronged. The players I'm talking to are simply hoping to avoid drama and trying to do whatever they can to be better next season.

Care to try again?

[Hooper]

Just my opinion. That said, I know for a fact he wasn't well-liked in the locker room in Philly -- players thought he was two faced and never took responsibility for anything. Jackson and Maclin flat-out hated him.

McNabb WAS a great player. The fact that the offense clearly looked better with him on the bench -- and it did, Murf -- says more about where McNabb is as a player now than Grossman.

There's a reason very few teams where interested in him last season and even less will be this offseason. Coaches watch film -- they saw and will continue to see he's declining fast. You compared McNabb to Brady and Manning.The difference is they're still great. If Brady was on the market, how many teams do you think would come calling? Trust me, we wouldn't have been the only team to make a real offer like we were for McNabb.

[TheLongshot]

I'd be stunned if Clinton Portis was here next season.

I seriously doubt Portis will be back. I can't invision the org paying him all of that money to walk around the sidelines in sweats for another season.

It will probably depend on what Portis wants to do. I agree that I doubt he will be brought back for his current contract amount, but I could see the team offering a reworked contract with some guaranteed money up front, but a more cap-friendly deal for his current status. Given what we do have (an injury-prone Torain and little else), I could very easily see Shanahan bringing back Portis. The question would be if Portis thinks the tradeoffs are worth it. I think he would, especially if he wants the Redskins rushing record.

[SkinsFTW]

1. We were the only team not to beat an opponent by more than 6 points.

I bet if somebody goes and checks that over the past 10 years we are probably the lowest on the list for wins over 6 or 7 as well. It seems like this team has been consistently mediocre to bad forever and a day.