A Mathematical argument to punt out of bounds everytime (or at least try to)

[Drew_Fl]

Disclaimers:

- For pooch punts you would do the same you do now.

- Yes i realize there is wind and other factors involved

- No, punters don't hit the ball correctly every punt (especially Smith this season)

- The gross yards per punt i'm using assumes straight line distance, so in reality it's probably higher since these punts are not usually straight line but i needed a baseline.

- The net avg stat is on NFL.com takes into account pooch punts with no return. I wanted to calculate only punts that were returned.

To start with, the avg NFL punter avgs 45.2 gross yards per punt (YPP) per NFL.com.

The avg return (sample size of 10 with at least 10 returns) is 11.69 yards per return (YPR).

So basically, the punting team gains around 33.5 yards of field position per punt.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

If the ball is snapped from the middle of the hash marks, the distance to the sideline is 26.65 yards. Using the 45.2 YPP avg, I calculated the ideal punt out of bounds would travel about 37 yards out of bounds at an angle of 54 deg.

If it's snapped from one of the hash marks, it's 23.585 yards to the sideline, and using the same YPP you could net 39 yards out of bounds, this time at a 58 deg angle.

Almost any NFL punter could be capable of these numbers or even if they were about 4 yards shorter, it would still benefit you because there would be no chance of a return TD. As i pointed out above, since the Gross YPP i used is not perfectly straight line distance, these numbers are probably the low end estimate of the benefits.

To summarize:

AVG Net Punt: 33.5 yards

AVG Punt Out of bounds (mid-field) : 37 yards

AVG Punt Out of bounds (either hash): 39 yards

My math should be correct, but the theory may not be. I was just pissed off after the PR TD yesterday b/c i said to myself immediately before the re-kick we should've just punted out of bounds.

[PlayAction]

Many punts have no attempted return (free catch) so applying the average return for returned punts to all punts (returned and free catch) will overstate the average return figure for your calculations.

Also, your calculations implicitly assume that the referees will have an accurate spot of the ball when it is kicked out of bounds. Keep in mind that the ball goes out of bounds high up in the air. I think the margin for error can be significantly higher than 4 yards.

[Drew_Fl]

the fair catches don't matter. the gross punt yards are taken where the punt is caught (returned or not), and if there is no return it's not accounted for in my stats. thats why i didn't just use the net avg from nfl.com

as for the refs, in this idea the ball will land lower to the ground and will be easier to spot, but again they may spot one punt short and another long, so there is really no way to put them into the calculation.

[mikemac9]

Nice math work sir. I always punt out of bounds in the video games, seems like the smartes move in almost all cases, unless you can really hang the ball with distance. In practice, I wish Hunter had a protractor available to gage his angles, cause in that Bears game he was duffing it out of bounds for 20-25 yards.

[Larry Brown #43]

Interesting. I've always thought it was strange that punters don't angle the ball out of bounds more often, but I never put numbers to it.

Sending kickoffs out of bounds would make sense too if it weren't for the penalty involved, but there's no such penalty for punts.

There's a ton of research out there showing that coaches are dumb for not going for it on 4th down more often than they do. I love these kinds of statistical analyses that question the norms of coaching decisions, especially in football.

[Dan T.]

In practice, I wish Hunter had a protractor available to gage his angles, cause in that Bears game he was duffing it out of bounds for 20-25 yards.

And that's the downside to this. Precision punting with distance is tough. That said, I think the OP is on to something. Even angling it towards one sideline, with the coverage unit knowing which sideline, helps box in the returner. But if the punter can get a 38 yard net every time kicking it out of bounds, hell yeah. That's tough to do though.

[Rufus T Firefly]

the fair catches don't matter. the gross punt yards are taken where the punt is caught (returned or not), and if there is no return it's not accounted for in my stats. thats why i didn't just use the net avg from nfl.com

1. It does matter, since you're applying the average return. If one out of every 3 punts is fair caught or allowed to bounce, then really the average punt is only returned 7.79 yards, and now you're losing yardage by punting out of bounds.

2. Are you factoring in how far behind the line the punter kicks the ball? a 45 yard punt actually travels more than 45 yards, so you're geometry may be off. I don't even know if that helps or hurts your argument (I hate math).

3. You're also assuming a perfect angle, which no punter is going to be able to achieve. If the punter is off on his angle just a little, then you will end up with a ball that could go out of bounds a lot further upfield, or a ball that goes a shorter distance, but still ends up in bounds.

[Dukes21]

the fair catches don't matter. the gross punt yards are taken where the punt is caught (returned or not), and if there is no return it's not accounted for in my stats. thats why i didn't just use the net avg from nfl.com

They inflate the avg yards per return though.

Punters might also be able to kick further if they didn't have to worry about hang time.

[Skin'Em84]

Nice math work sir. I always punt out of bounds in the video games, seems like the smartes move in almost all cases, unless you can really hang the ball with distance. In practice, I wish Hunter had a protractor available to gage his angles, cause in that Bears game he was duffing it out of bounds for 20-25 yards.

He should spend 20 minutes before a game putting a compass on his facemask and doing the math to calculate the angles based on the degrees to put on a cheat sheet on his arm.

[Thirtyfive2seven]

Ummm math sucks!

[4th and 20]

The idea is pretty sound in theory. However, in practice it's not that viable. Go back to the Bears game where we punted out of bounds nearly every time and see the results. HORRIBLE punting, a lot of 20-30 yard shanks, or even less!

It's pretty hard to kick the ball out of bounds consistently well unless you have a great punter. Several teams have some punters who can do that with regularity... the 'Skins have had one the worst punting games for a long long time now.

[Darth Tater]

The inability to execute a directional punt is one of the reasons many great college punters can't make it in the NFL. Remember Brooks? The last punter the Redskins had that was a great directional punter was Mike Bragg (a good case can be made that he was one of the best in NFL history at it). The theory is good but only a handful have ever been consistently good at executing it without suffering a deadly shank problem. Still, almost every punter makes the attempt on most of his punts.

[dfitzo53]

If punters had the kind of accuracy and consistency under pressure that this demands, it would be great. I don't think that's realistic.

Also, as others have pointed out, there are flaws in your calculations.

[Drew_Fl]

The idea is pretty sound in theory. However, in practice it's not that viable. Go back to the Bears game where we punted out of bounds nearly every time and see the results. HORRIBLE punting, a lot of 20-30 yard shanks, or even less!

It's pretty hard to kick the ball out of bounds consistently well unless you have a great punter. Several teams have some punters who can do that with regularity... the 'Skins have had one the worst punting games for a long long time now.

those punts were just disgusting. if that's what it takes to be an NFL punter, then sign me up.

[Renegade7]

Nice stats, but the odds of creating a turnover when you punt it out of bounds = 0%...

Where's the fun in that? :helmet: