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BRAVEONAWARPATH

By BRAVEONAWARPATH
in The Tailgate

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Going Commando

Going Commando

Posted
Posted

I honestly can't think of any star caliber lead guards in the NBA who aren't useless at best on defense, liability at worst now that Chris Paul has reached his dotage.

 

The guards who are actual difference makers on defense are basically, to a man, specialist role players with limited offensive utility.

 

The first sign of plus defensive value paired with real offensive value is with players who are 6'6 or 6'7 and up.  Guards just have too little size and impact on defense in the modern NBA, particularly since the common system involves lead guards running huge portions of their team's offense.  The NBA is a 6'7 / 6'8 man's league.  The great two way forwards tend to decide almost all of the championships.

 

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Destino

Destino

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Posted
55 minutes ago, BRAVEONAWARPATH said:

A trade proposal from a knicks fan:

🤮

 

Julius Randle
Bobby Portis
Elfrid Payton
Wayne Ellington

for

John Wall
Rui Hachiwhateva
Troy Brown Jr
Mortiz Wagner
2020 frp unprotected

pretty much get to have a clean slate and rid yourself of Wall and his contract.

 

Does he have an army at the city walls threatening to invade if we don't accept his proposal?  That's the only way that trade would make any sense at all. 

 

Then again, he's a Knicks fan, so he might actually think cap space qualifies as a plan. 

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Going Commando

Going Commando

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Posted

I think the reason why so many of the best offensive players in the NBA are 6'4 and under lead guards whose teams don't often win championships (and are more often stuck in a 40 win plateau) is that we overrate the impact of offense in our calculation of the wages of wins vs the other two phases of the game: defense and rebounding.

 

My theory is that all three phases have an equal impact on the outcome of games and that they should be weighted as 33%.  1 scoring baskets. 2 stopping the scoring of baskets.  3 the part that happens in between.  But they don't form equal parts in the way we think about the game, and the commitment of team building resources they command and I believe this is because the quality of our measurements of individual offensive contribution is way higher than our measurements of defense and rebounding.  Most of us understand that not all NBA baskets are created equal.  So we measure their context in all kinds of ways--how they are created, the efficiency with which they are made, where they are taken from, and even assign different point values to degree of difficulty.  We have minimal measurement of context of individual contributions to defense and rebounding, so 66% of the game is very poorly understood.

 

Jabari Parker's lazy ass understood that offense gets you paid, but he didn't seem to understand or care that defense and rebounding gets you wins.  When a GM is building a team, efficient use of finite resources (dollars, draft picks, AND minutes) means finding guys who bring added value over the average in the three phases of the game.  Important to highlight minutes as a limited team building resource because you only get 48 per game at each of the five positions.  You have to figure out how to get as much added value as possible in those 48 minutes per position per game.  So having three centers who bring a ton of added value to their position doesn't actually help you get that value on the floor, Philadelphia.

 

In the modern game, it is much easier to get a ton of added value on the floor from a single player acquisition if the player is a forward than if he's a center or guard.  They superstar forwards can give you added value in all three phases of the game.  For a center to do it, they have to be a special, special offensive player who can be a high usage shot creator and that's rare.  And we are seeing now that, because of role, playing style, and size, basically no true guards offer added value in defense or rebounding.  And no, Russell Westbrook's shameless stat chasing rebounds isn't actually worth a damn in added value because loitering for uncontested rebounds is not tough or critical rebounding--rebounding that unexpectedly adds or ends possessions and impacts game flow.

 

This is why we have had such a hard time getting out of the 40 win morass through building around two true guards.  This is why I'm really skeptical about the way we're building because we're not getting added value in rebounding and defense from our PF and C positions.  We're getting below average value.  Bryant ain't **** as defender and he's a slightly below average rebounder and way below elite level at rebounding for his position.  Hachimura can't play defense either.  He was part of a great team defense at Gonzaga, but a lot of that was him just fitting in.  Clarke was the brilliant defender who made everything happen and their guards and other rotation bigs were much better defenders than you can expect to see in a typical NBA rotation.  He brings no added value to defense for the PF position.

 

Our only chance at contention with this construction is for John to come back and give us added value on defense and for Hachimura to become a much, much better defender and/or to get a new center who is a difference maker on defense and rebounding.

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Hersh

Hersh

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Posted
11 hours ago, -JB- said:

You owe it to Beal to give him every chance to reach his full potential and earn an All-Pro selection, which could make for a serious raise.  I also have seen guys have minutes cut back and still end up with a freak injury that sidelines them long term (Steph Curry).  I don’t think you should be playing Beal 5 minutes less every game just because.


It’s not just because, it’s about maximizing Beal when it matters. The idea that the Wiz owe it to Beal when they are paying Beal a huge amount of money is a nonstarter. The objective is to win a championship someday, not help someone get the biggest contract in the NBA.

10 hours ago, BRAVEONAWARPATH said:

A trade proposal from a knicks fan:

🤮

 

Julius Randle
Bobby Portis
Elfrid Payton
Wayne Ellington

for

John Wall
Rui Hachiwhateva
Troy Brown Jr
Mortiz Wagner
2020 frp unprotected

pretty much get to have a clean slate and rid yourself of Wall and his contract.


Did you tell them it’s the dumbest trade proposal they could think up? Cause that really is ridiculous. 

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Warhead36

Warhead36

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, BRAVEONAWARPATH said:

A trade proposal from a knicks fan:

🤮

 

Julius Randle
Bobby Portis
Elfrid Payton
Wayne Ellington

for

John Wall
Rui Hachiwhateva
Troy Brown Jr
Mortiz Wagner
2020 frp unprotected

pretty much get to have a clean slate and rid yourself of Wall and his contract.

1*MzqQm_K3sdO8RFibufJJBA.jpeg

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Commander -JB-

Commander -JB-

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Hersh said:


It’s not just because, it’s about maximizing Beal when it matters. The idea that the Wiz owe it to Beal when they are paying Beal a huge amount of money is a nonstarter. The objective is to win a championship someday, not help someone get the biggest contract in the NBA.


Did you tell them it’s the dumbest trade proposal they could think up? Cause that really is ridiculous. 

So your proposal is to play Beal 5 less minutes a night?  Nonsense.  MJ was playing 40+ minutes a night for an under .500 team the season directly after he broke his foot.  Winners don’t sit on the bench just because.  

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Hersh

Hersh

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, -JB- said:

What a losers mentality.  Sheesh.


I wish the Wiz didn’t suck but they do. I wish Beal didn’t have any injury history but he does. He’s made it the last two seasons clean but that makes 2/7 seasons. If the Wiz are ever good again while he’s on the team, don’t hold him back. In a season where getting better odds to win the lottery would help long term, that’s how I see it.

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Commander -JB-

Commander -JB-

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Hersh said:


I wish the Wiz didn’t suck but they do. I wish Beal didn’t have any injury history but he does. He’s made it the last two seasons clean but that makes 2/7 seasons. If the Wiz are ever good again while he’s on the team, don’t hold him back. In a season where getting better odds to win the lottery would help long term, that’s how I see it.

He’s only missed a handful of games the last 3 full seasons and counting.  You’re paying him an obscene amount of $.  Unless you are in full on tank mode where you’re actively trying to lose every game, I don’t see the point of just sitting Beal.  Also, if they win this game they are 4-8.  Wiz have made playoffs before with a worse start.  I’m not even saying they’re gonna make the playoffs but you don’t just lay down and die.

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Destino

Destino

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Posted

Tommy found every good role player this team has ever needed in one offseason with no assets to trade and zero cap room.  Grunfeld failed to acquire a decent bench for like 15 years or however long he was here.  Truly amazing how bad Ernie was at just finding guys that could contribute.

 

I missed the game but the score had me grinning. “So wizards” used to mean everyone was injured, no one was in shape, and the team imploded seemingly for no reason.  Now it means winning (or losing) games by single digits after scoring 125 points or more.  If you must be bad, this is the best damn way to do it I’ve ever seen.

 

 

Check out ESPN recap talking ****:

Quote

WASHINGTON -- Gregg Popovich and the San Antonio Spurs are in the midst of a seven-game losing streak, their longest skid since he took over as the team's coach more than 20 years ago.
 

With little resistance at the defensive end from San Antonio on Wednesday night, Washington's Bradley Beal shot 9 for 9 in a 21-point third quarter en route to scoring 33 in all, and the lowly Wizards beat the Spurs 138-132.

https://www.espn.com/nba/recap?gameId=401160845

 

Lowly wizards?!  The wizards are 4-8, which is admittedly bad, but the Spurs are 5-10.  They’ve also lost seven straight, so what’s this lowly wizards business about?  Spurs are right there with us.

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Commander -JB-

Commander -JB-

Posted
Posted (edited)

@Destino You hit the nail on the head.  The Wizards have been poorly constructed with some awful benches.  As soon as Grunfeld is kicked to the curb & Sheppard comes in, he makes several moves and completely changes the culture.  Wagner/Bertans can light it up!  

 

Exactly right about being bad.  If you’re going to be really bad defensively, at least you can flat out light it up and compete most nights.  

 

The Wizards can be labeled lowly.  That’s ok.  They’ve been there many times before.  It’s not like they haven’t bounced back in the past.  Even just the other night vs Orlando, they were completely out of it and then suddenly, after an offensive flurry, they’re only down 4 late.  Even though they lost it eventually, they battled back in it.  They fight and claw.  Seems to be a trend in DC these days 😎  The 2 games prior they pounded the Wolves with KAT & gave the Celtics everything they could handle.  These are good signs.

Edited by -JB-
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