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The Official Washington Basketball Thread: Wizards, Mystics etc


BRAVEONAWARPATH

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I actually like our 2nd team offense being run through Seraphin, but we need someone on the perimeter who can play at a fairly high level. Miller has really regressed, although I still like him for the playoffs when games tend to slow down some. We need to get more out of Webster or at least play Porter more.

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And for the sick ****s out there who want a refresher on what the Baltche triple-double SU is referring to...

*WARNING: Painful and embarrassing characters, names and memories forthcoming*

God we've come so far. Already dibs on the firstborn (RIP) but I might name my secondborn after John Wall or something.

Edited by G.A.C.O.L.B.
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Calderon is a fantastic shooter. He'd definitely help us score from the perimeter. He'd also be one of the best back up PGs in the league seeing as he's still starting caliber. But his contract is too big. 7.4 mil average through 2017. It'd be hard to trade for him (we'd need the Knicks to take back Martell Webster, why would they do that?) and his salary would screw up our ability to have max contract room coming off the books for the Durant summer.

Getting a third PG for a year where we aren't really legit contenders isn't worth giving up good trade assets or hurting our ability to afford Durant in two summers.

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Actually, doing some crunching,

Cap commitments 2016 offseason:

Wall - 17 million

Gortat - 12

Beal - cap hold of around 11 million

Porter - 5.9 (team option)

Webster - 5.8

Humphries - 4.6

Blair - 2 (team option)

= 58.3 million in commitments.

We could renounce our options on Porter and Blair and save 8 million which just might be enough to put a max contract on the table if the cap is a little over 70 million. Hopefully it jumps a lot higher than that, although that would mean Durant's asking price would jump a lot too.

I understand there is a provision in Webster's contract that allows a lot of the final year to be unguaranteed if he misses X number of games from injury. If that's true, then he might be on his way to triggering that clause and so maybe we can take his salary off our commitments for the key summer.

But if not, in regards to Calderon, just swapping Webster's salary for Calderon's would put us at over 60 million in commitments. Forcing ourselves into a situation where we'd have to renounce Porter's rights to get in the neighborhood of a max deal isn't good. Especially if we then proceed to strike out on Durant. And again, there is no real reason for New York to replace one long term salary commitment for another of the same length and almost the same money, especially since Webster is an inferior player to Calderon, playing a less important position.

Man Humphries's contract that summer is kind of a nuisance. I thought the final year was a team option but apparently it's not.

We're going to want to pick up Porter's final option year and we're going to have Humphries at such a fairly low number (we'll need PFs if we're planning on letting Nene walk and adding Durant). What we need to do in order to prepare for that summer is find a way to move Webster's contract without taking on any additional commitments for that offseason. Or else hope the cap jumps up waaay higher than the record 7% increase we got this summer.

Getting Beal to sign long term a year early could also help. Potentially. Not if he signs a max deal, but at this point, he couldn't rightfully command anything close to one.

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Looking up some stats, and I had no idea that Wall is actually shooting better than Beal from mid-range so far this season.

He's more selective with the shots he takes from this part of the floor than Beal is and he gets more space on the shot. If you look at the heat maps and shot charts for each, you see that the vast majority of John's mid range attempts come around the elbows. This is an in rhythm shot where he usually has a good amount of space because defenders have to play off him and go under screens in this part of the floor. It's also a sweet spot of the floor for him, so he's getting very repeatable motions and results with the shot.

Beal's map shows his shots are very dispersed with only one small area of concentration around the right elbow. It's also the only spot from which he seems to make mid range shots with consistency. That spot is probably where he's successfully coming off a ball screen at the point and getting an in rhythm pull up attempt off, much as John does. His other attempts are coming off things like handoffs where the defenders are going over screens and working hard to deny him the ball and he gets a lot less space. Other times it'll be from step backs where he has to work towards the baselines, or step in shot against a hard close out where the defender is running him off the 3 pt line. These shots are more reactive, less rhythmic, not as clean. That catch, pump fake, and one or two dribble step in and pull up shot from the 3 pt line is hard not to shoot strong plus you're making a third read in the process instead of just two:

1.) catch and shoot the three against the close out

2.) pump fake and step in and pull up

3.) pump fake and drive the basket

as opposed to just pulling up after the screen or driving to the basket.

It's important in order for Beal to unlock his potential as a scorer that he master the mid range game like Wall has been doing. Especially since he isn't a deadly slasher that is handling the ball from point a lot. He is always going to get run off the 3 pt line when the defenses are set so he needs to be able to catch and get to sweet spots that he's mastered from mid range. His decision making is going to have to get a lot quicker and cleaner and he's going to have to get a good floater and step back. Once he does, his scoring could explode and it will give him cleaner looks from three.

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Announcers still not hip to Wall's dribble move.


Looks like I'll be able to go to sleep early tonight. You can already tell it's not our night.

 

I don't have the energy to make to 1am tonight. I hope to be pleasantly surprised when I check the score in the morning.

Edited by StillUnknown
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