The Official Washington Basketball Thread: Wizards, Mystics etc

[Destino]

we shouldn't be surprised Simmons lit us up.  We have no one that can guard big star caliber wings.  Otto lacks the lateral quicks to stay in front of them.  Oubre isn't big or strong enough and his gambling just makes it worse.  This roster will always struggle with guys like Durant, Lebron, and now Simmons.  This isn't a slam on either of our guys, I'm huge fan of both.  

 

On another subject, if Mahinmi keeps playing well enough to stay on the floor he should start.  He's a klutz with hands worse than Vesely's but he's a much better interior defender and our starters give up penetration like <insert relevant dirty joke of you choice here>.  It will hurt the starters ability to play PnR but they should probably be relying less on that anyway.  Gortat is more easily hidden when Sato, Otto, and Oubre are on the floor.  That group defends better and could use a better offensive center.  I'm now convinced @stevemcqueen1 has been right on this one (don't get used to it, Steve).

 

I'd still rather trade both our centers away as quickly as possible.  

 

Lets talk about our bigs.

- I'd like to have Okafor as the 2nd big man instead of Gortat.  It gives Brooks a player to develop and his contract might not be big next season.  If Philly can't get anyone to give them a second round pick, GMs aren't all that interested.  

- Morris is too damn slow and while he might be our best individual defender against traditional PFs his team defense is bad.  He moves like a center but without the height, length, or strength.  He's a big reason why our weakside defense is garbage.  When Gortat steps out to defend a PnR or to intercept a driving player, watch Morris and you'll see what I mean.

- Gortat plays defense like his arms can not reach out, only up.  Is this a muscle memory thing to avoid fouls?  When both he and Morris are on the floor, it feels like we have no length despite playing two traditional bigs.  That's weird right?    

[Bozo the kKklown]

I think its time for Oubre to start over Morris. 

[Going Commando]

2 minutes ago, BenningRoadSkin said:

I think its time for Oubre to start over Morris. 

 

I'd stream Morris and Oubre based on match ups.  If we're playing a team with a burly PF, then start Morris.  If they're smaller and Otto can handle them, start Oubre.  There is something to be said for continuity and consistency in rotations, but Oubre is so good that he's now one of our five best.  And I do think Oubre is a better fit with the starters because he is much more of a shot maker than creator and he benefits from playing with Wall and Beal.

 

Either way, he needs to be getting 30-34 MPG.

[Going Commando]

36 minutes ago, Destino said:

I'm now convinced @stevemcqueen1 has been right on this one (don't get used to it, Steve).

 

I withheld some of my reasoning for why I thought Gortat was killing the D and that we could make big strides by making a change because I don't have the same time to write out arguments that I used to.  But right now I do.  Basically my thinking is this: defense is like a chain and it breaks when there is a significant point of failure.  Having a crappy defender at C is the worst spot to have a point of failure, they effect like 3/4ths of half court defensive stands.  Marcin is our most frequent point of failure.  I understood why you thought he wasn't the sole problem because others were playing poorly, and were skeptical that making a change could have a big impact.  What I didn't say is that I thought you were underestimating the impact of the C position on the defense and I suspected that we'd all be amazed to see just how much a change at C could improve the D.

 

Personnel at the wing and big positions is so important for playing good D.  We've often wondered how it is that we went from being a strong defensive team under Wittman to a weak one in just two years, and the answer is the personnel at those positions changed.  We lost Ariza, who was an exceptional wing defender.  We lost Nene, who was an excellent space eater and one of the better PnR defenders in the league.  And Gortat lost the ability to jump.  It's not a coincidence that the Rockets went from a really bad defensive team to a respectable one when they got Ariza and Nene and replaced a washed up Dwight Howard with Clint Capela.  And this despite playing hopeless defensive players like Harden, Ryan Anderson, Lou Williams, Eric Gordon, etc. in very big roles.  It shows you how impactful your forward and C positions are.

 

If we want to get back to playing good D, we have to get better personnel.  Otto and Oubre are really good and we don't need any changes to the SF position whatsoever, but there is nothing Brooks can do without upgrades at big.  We were counting on Mahinmi to be the defensive presence we needed when we brought him in, and this is why his injury and severe regression has hurt us so much.  But the upside to this is that you could fix our D with basically one personnel upgrade: replacing Gortat/Mahinmi with a legit good defensive player who can be relied upon night in and night out.

 

And the other thing about Gortat is that, as handy as his finishing ability is to have on offense, he's giving up more than he gets now and he's a net negative.  You don't see just how much he hurts us in his metrics like win shares and DRtg because they are so heavily predicated on rebounding numbers, and Gortat gets a ton of cheap defensive rebounds in our system.  I am positive that if I sat down with game film and charted the offensive and defensive trips that he's on the floor, I would find that he's now a net negative on our score differential.  And that his value would be even worse I compared him to the delta at the C position.  And then even more so if I compared him to what a legitimately good C does.

 

Obviously I haven't done this, I'm going off a gestalt.  But I trust it.

 

I want us to trade Marcin ASAP.  Other GMs don't see him play every game and his numbers (PER, WS/48, ORtg, DRtg) are good and disguising the fact that he's finished.  I would go so far as to say he's actually got positive trade value.  If we don't move him now, it's going to be much harder to later.

 

As for starting Mahinmi, I'm for it.  I think it serves two purposes:

1 - Give us a guy who at least has the chance to play good defense at C--Gortat has none whatsoever.

2 - It can only help improve his trade value, which is at the nadir right now.

 

I also think there is reason for optimism that Mahinmi can start to turn things around for himself if he were starting.  I think he might be a rhythm player.  He is very aggressive and physical player and that style of defense he plays turns into out of control fouling when he's not in rhythm.  I don't think it's a fluke that, by far, the best season of his career was the year when he became a starter and played a consistent and predictable role in a regular rotation with a steady group of faces around him.  I think you also see his lack of rhythm effect his offensive game in a big way with all of these awful bricked dunks and layups.  That year he started in Indy, Mahinmi was a good PnR finisher.  Not as good as Gortat, but legitimately good.  We haven't seen that part of Mahinmi's game here at all.

 

I think his signing and implementation has been disastrously botched.  We never should have signed him to be a reserve.  And his injury killed any chance of becoming the starter and having a smooth transition to our organization.  And I think the damage to his game might be lasting.

 

However, even if we were to start Mahinmi and he beat the odds and became the player he was his final year in Indy, I still kind of want an upgrade.  As you said, Mahinmi's hands are garbage.  He runs well and his lateral speed is excellent, but I've noticed that he can't get any lift.  No jumping and crap hands are why his rebounding isn't good.  Kieff's not a good rebounder either.  We don't have a legit glass cleaner at PF or C and we need one.  That's how Philly killed us last night, even though our Hack-a-Simmons strategy worked. 

 

Nerlens Noel is the solution for me.  Good rebounder, great weakside helper and rim protector, great playing the pass lanes, great on the hedge and recover, fully capable of switching onto a guard and cutting them off from the basket.  Energizer bunny style of player with one of the best second bounces in the NBA.  And as a bonus, he's got good floor vision and a bit of a handle and the ability to finish John Wall lobs above the rim.  The negatives are that he's a string-bean who will get moved by bigs posting up, and **** touch on his shot from basically every range, but we can live with that.  We have so much shot making ability at the forward spots and Kieff is a burly PF who can be an enforcer and stone posting bigs.

 

I'd consider Okafor for dirt cheap because he's a big body with a silky offensive game.  But I want to shoot higher and get a guy with high defensive upside.  Also I hate how soft Okafor is on the glass for a big bodied seven footer with gigantic hands.  That guy should be Drummond or Nurkic on the boards, he just doesn't want it.

[GOSKINS_08]

I’m sure it’s been said but Brooks went with the foul strategy too long. Once we were down 4 with a couple minutes left just play defense and win the game.

[Skin'emAlive]

I think it is hard to judge the negatives of Jahil's game when he hasn't really played in 2 years. One year can be a world of difference. Look at Oubre and Otto. There's no reason that a guy as hungry to play as Jahil couldn't have improved aspects of his game. I like Nerlens, but I don't know if he's as motivated to prove others wrong and be on the court as he is motivated to get a big paycheck.

[Warhead36]

The positives about the Wall injury is that its forcing Sato to get more PT and I love the step up Oubre has made in his game.

 

But this is why blowing all those games to bad teams early and blowing double digit leads hurt. You gotta win those so you have a bit of a cushion in case of injuries or tough stretches in your schedule.

[TheItalianStallion]

I like what Brooks has done with player development but he's lacking in-game. I think I'm in favor of Mahinmi starting.

[CRobi21]

http://woelfelspressbox.com/2017/12/jordan-becomes-center-of-bucks-attention/

 

Jordan’s name has been mentioned in trade rumors for several weeks and, as one might expect, there isn’t a shortage of teams interested in him. According to sources, the Toronto Raptors, Washington Wizards, Minnesota Timberwolves and Bucks have shown the most interest in Jordan.

 

 

 

Edited December 1, 2017 by CRobi21

[Skin'emAlive]

Kara has gotten much better in the season, but man Phil's voice is just so smooth. 

[GoDeep81]

Yikees. Just saw a birds eye view inside the arena.. Friday night, place is dead empty.

[Renegade7]

1 hour ago, CRobi21 said:

http://woelfelspressbox.com/2017/12/jordan-becomes-center-of-bucks-attention/

 

Jordan’s name has been mentioned in trade rumors for several weeks and, as one might expect, there isn’t a shortage of teams interested in him. According to sources, the Toronto Raptors, Washington Wizards, Minnesota Timberwolves and Bucks have shown the most interest in Jordan.

Hard to get excited for that because I just feel we're going to have to pay out the **** in that trade scenario.

[Going Commando]

Not going to get my hopes up for Jordan because I don't want to deal with any disappointment.

 

Meeks and Sato have a little chemistry.  More evidence that Sato should get Frazier's minutes when Wall gets back.

[CRobi21]

Go-Go > Wizards

[Going Commando]

Capital City GoGo?  Eh...

[TradeTheBeal!]

My Sato mancrush is activated.

[Destino]

Ok someone needs to explain why the bench is so much better as soon as Wall is out of the lineup.  He doesn't even play with them. 

[Going Commando]

5 minutes ago, Destino said:

Ok someone needs to explain why the bench is so much better as soon as Wall is out of the lineup.  He doesn't even play with them. 

 

Ewing Theory.

[Renegade7]

Or its just a good bench. Not bad, Ernie, not bad.

[Skin'emAlive]

7 minutes ago, Destino said:

Ok someone needs to explain why the bench is so much better as soon as Wall is out of the lineup.  He doesn't even play with them. 

 

Has nothing to do with Wall. The ball doesn't particularly move great with the starting unit. It moves well on the second unit because Sato, Mahinmi, and Scott are all very very willing passers. Combine that with Otto, and the ball moves to the open man every time. 

[Destino]

4 minutes ago, Skin'emAlive said:

 

Has nothing to do with Wall. The ball doesn't particularly move great with the starting unit. It moves well on the second unit because Sato, Mahinmi, and Scott are all very very willing passers. Combine that with Otto, and the ball moves to the open man every time. 

So we've had this bench all this time and just never played them together?  

 

We sure it's not just Frazier?  With the bench, they were bad.  Now with the starters, they're worse.  Let's start some drama!

 

 

8 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

Ewing Theory.

I had forgotten that existed.  Wish it applied to the starting unit.

[Going Commando]

Kieff can't guard Harris.  Should have taken him out and left Oubre in and put Otto on him.

[Destino]

Big Panda is getting shown up by Avery Bradley.  Beal needs to find some rhythm in the second half.

[Skin'emAlive]

10 minutes ago, Destino said:

So we've had this bench all this time and just never played them together?  

 

We sure it's not just Frazier?  With the bench, they were bad.  Now with the starters, they're worse.  Let's start some drama!

 

 

I had forgotten that existed.  Wish it applied to the starting unit.

 

I think Jason Smith and Mike Scott are interchangeable. The key is that Ian is a willing passer that doesn't hunt for his shots ( not that he reall has one. But the point is we don't need shot production from the 5). Just as important is that Sato is a wonderful passer that doesn't discriminate. He passes to whomever is open. He did last year too, but someone tried to make him into a 3. Stupid. Frazier's problem is not that he doesn't pass, it's that he is a bad passer. They are always inaccurate passes that are hard to handle. His length is an issue. 

[Going Commando]

Beal's post up is pretty bad.  Waist-bender instead of setting his weight up over his feet.  Leads to him doing his baby-deer impression.

I like Frazier's feistiness.

Drummond could get Marcin with a rip through.  Reaching unnecessarily.

Say what you want about Frazier, but he can run a fast break.