ESPN-Tuesday Morning Quarterback: Bottom line is, Bill Belichick was right

[GhostofSparta]

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=easterbrook/091117&sportCat=nfl

As usual, lots of good stuff in his article: The virtues of going for it on 4th and short, astronomy and pop culture, a segment about the Redskins-Broncos game. But this segment made me laugh, and I figured I'd share for those who hadn't seen.

In sociological news, TMQ's Unified Field Theory of Creep holds that not just Christmas but everything is creeping. For instance, the annual Dallas Cowboys collapse in December. On Sunday at Green Bay, in mid-November, the Cowboys collapsed -- is there now Cowboys Creep? Trailing 17-0 in the final minute, Cowboys coach Wade Phillips left his offensive starters on the field, desperately trying to avoid a shutout. There are no BCS polls and no style points in the NFL -- with a true playoff format, all that matters is W's and L's. But Phillips fears for his job. Knowing there will be an extremely unpleasant year-end performance review session with Jerry Jones, he wanted to keep "we got shut out at Green Bay" out of his file.

[bubba9497]

IF the pats made it he would have been right, but the risk reward balance proved it was to big a gamble, as it proved on the field.

[zoony]

I thought it was the right call too. You don't give the ball to Peyton Manning up by 6 with 2 minutes left to go. You just don't do it.

And why did I keep hearing that night that it was a sign Bill didn't trust his defense? Why couldn't it simply have been that he TRUSTED his offense?

I mean, you have the greatest QB in the history of the game throwing to the 2nd greatest WR to ever play, with the greatest receiving back out of the backfield in the league and the best slot receiver in the league.

Why not go for it? It would have been a dumb decision for Jim Zorn to trust that play to Campbell and Randle El. It was the right call for Tom Brady and co, however.

.....

[Mooka]

The bigger mistake was tackling Addai on the 1 yard line.

They would've had over a minute to work with. More then enough time for Brady to get into field goal range.

[Bubble Screen]

I thought it was the right call too. You don't give the ball to Peyton Manning up by 6 with 2 minutes left to go. You just don't do it.

And why did I keep hearing that night that it was a sign Bill didn't trust his defense? Why couldn't it simply have been that he TRUSTED his offense?

I mean, you have the greatest QB in the history of the game throwing to the 2nd greatest WR to ever play, with the greatest receiving back out of the backfield in the league and the best slot receiver in the league.

Why not go for it? It would have been a dumb decision for Jim Zorn to trust that play to Campbell and Randle El. It was the right call for Tom Brady and co, however.

.....

Completely agree. And if it were any other opposing QB, he doesn't go for it (probably). And Faulk actually would have had the first down had he not bobbled it, initially. I have no problems with what Bill did. And how can you argue with a man that's won 3 SB's?

[bubba9497]

If it was the "right call" the Pats should have won.

it's more difficult to make 4th and 2 than stop a team scoring a TD from 70+ away with less than 2 min. to play.

even for Tom Brady

[fsunoles0021]

If it was the "right call" the Pats should have won.

it's more difficult to make 4th and 2 than stop a team scoring a TD from 70+ away with less than 2 min. to play.

even for Tom Brady

Agreed.

All of us watching agreed before the play that is was DEFINITELY the wrong decision, whether it was successful or not. It's just too simple for Peyton to go 29 yards. Force him to go 80, at least you've got a much better shot.

[Vicious]

He should have ran it up the gut his Oline is awesome.

[Capt Rich Fla]

I thought it was the right call too. You don't give the ball to Peyton Manning up by 6 with 2 minutes left to go. You just don't do it.

And why did I keep hearing that night that it was a sign Bill didn't trust his defense? Why couldn't it simply have been that he TRUSTED his offense?

I mean, you have the greatest QB in the history of the game throwing to the 2nd greatest WR to ever play, with the greatest receiving back out of the backfield in the league and the best slot receiver in the league.

Why not go for it? It would have been a dumb decision for Jim Zorn to trust that play to Campbell and Randle El. It was the right call for Tom Brady and co, however.

.....

ditto!

What do you think that defense was thinking when the Pats said they were going for it? I bet they were puckered up and figured the pats were about to get a first down and end it.

[renaissance]

Actually, I think Belly's worst mistake was burning his last timeout before that play. If he'd had a timeout he could have at least challenged it. Poor time management all around considering after the Colts got the ball they were able to pretty much run out the clock with a couple running plays.

[DTK]

The mistake was made when the Pats had the ball with a 31-21 lead and instead of going for the TD they settled for a FG. They ran the ball on consecutive plays, like 2nd and 4 and 3rd and 4, something they NEVER do. If they put the ball in Brady's hands they probably score a TD there and any chance for a Colts comeback is hindered by a 3 score lead. But they settled for a FG and left themselves with only a 13 point lead. IMHO, that's where the bonehead decision was made. Though, the 4th and 2 call was definately out there.

[TD_washingtonredskins]

I had no problem with his decision to go for it or the play call. In fact, the play worked to an extent as Brady seemingly completed a pass past the first down marker. The bobble and correct spot were something that wouldn't happen very often.

Edit: I love the Friday Night Lights write-up!

[zoony]

If it was the "right call" the Pats should have won.

What convoluted logic.

Anywho, I hope you were equally critical of Jim Zorn's playcalling that cost us a few games on 4th down.

......

[Botched]

So am I the only one who is sick of hearing about this one 4th down call?

I turn on the radio on Monday morning and they're talking about it. Get to work and turn on the radio to a different station and they won't talk about anything else, on the way home they're talking about it again, at home I turn on ESPN and it's all they're talking about, switch to NFL network and they're debating it. This morning as I'm getting ready for work I turn on NFLN they're STILL talking about it.:puke:

I have never seen a single call in the middle of the regular season get so much media attention. I haven't even seen a 15 second recap of the Skins game on ESPN or NFLN because they are too busy devoting entire programs to this one stinkin call. It is unreal.

/rant

[Lombardi's_kid_brother]

If it was the "right call" the Pats should have won.

it's more difficult to make 4th and 2 than stop a team scoring a TD from 70+ away with less than 2 min. to play.

even for Tom Brady

Mathematically, that is simply not right.

Bubba, bear with me.

It is the right call to hold on 15 against a 2. The dealer might flip a ten and then hit a 9. And you might lose. But, mathematicall, you made the right call.

The odds of making a 4th and 2 are better than the odds of not stopping Peyton Manning from going 60 yards in 2 minutes.

[Lombardi's_kid_brother]

Agreed.

All of us watching agreed before the play that is was DEFINITELY the wrong decision, whether it was successful or not. It's just too simple for Peyton to go 29 yards. Force him to go 80, at least you've got a much better shot.

You are missing something here.

An NFL team makes 4th and 2 about 75 percent of the time; the Pats make it at a higher rate than that. Every other option is worse for the Pats.

You are looking at a three dimensional problem two-dimensionally...which is still better than Trent Dilfer who thought about it one-dimensionally. ("That's not the way George Halas did it! Grrrrr!")

[ntotoro]

If it was the "right call" the Pats should have won.

it's more difficult to make 4th and 2 than stop a team scoring a TD from 70+ away with less than 2 min. to play.

even for Tom Brady

Yeah, I've been thinking the same thing ever since Monday.

Why does it seem like ESPN has been falling all over themselves trying to give Bellichick an out over this?

[TD_washingtonredskins]

You are missing something here.

An NFL team makes 4th and 2 about 75 percent of the time; the Pats make it at a higher rate than that. Every other option is worse for the Pats.

You are looking at a three dimensional problem two-dimensionally...which is still better than Trent Dilfer who thought about it one-dimensionally. ("That's not the way George Halas did it! Grrrrr!")

This is the best response so far. The Patriots convert 4 out of every 5 4th and 2. They had an 80% chance of ending the game right there.

Manning has better than a 20% chance of driving down for a TD from 70-80 yards away with 2 minutes on the clock.

That's the answer right there...statistically, it was a sound decision. It's not the norm in the NFL which has become about playing not to lose, so the decision is bashed.

[DaveMason]

Their 4th down conversion percentage is high because they go for it on 4th down to run up the score against crappy teams.

What's their 4th down conversion rate against good defenses, who are pumped up because the game is on the line? Probably not as good, although I have no way of knowing since the very premise is so subjective.

[DCsportsfan53]

I just have to ask those who thing it was a bad decision. In Peyton Manning's career, when given the ball with enough time left, down one score, how many times has he failed? We're talking about a HOFer, not Jason Campbell. If you think about the answer to that question for a moment you'll realize that, while maybe not conventional, Belichick made the right call.

Otoh, I thought tackling Addai at the 1 yard line was a mistake. At that point, you have to let him get in and then let Brady win the game with a FG drive.

[TD_washingtonredskins]

Otoh, I thought tackling Addai at the 1 yard line was a mistake. At that point, you have to let him get in and then let Brady win the game with a FG drive.

I completely agree. It would have taken some quick-thinking since it's very counter-intuitive, but it would have given a great clutch QB plenty of time to get to the 35 yard line.

[Brixtion_skin]

The whole world has gone mad. If anyone but BB had made that call it would have rightly been condemned as foolishness. It was foolishness, plain and simple. If a genius sets fire to his backside its still stupid! Going for it on 4th down inside his own 30! Not genius..just dumb.

[scyber]

This is the best response so far. The Patriots convert 4 out of every 5 4th and 2. They had an 80% chance of ending the game right there.

Not true. Since the pats called a pass that went incomplete before the 4th down play, the Colts still had a TO left. 1 TO, plus the 2 minute warning, means even if they convert, the Colts could have still gotten ball back with some time on the clock if the Pats didn't convert another 1st down. Not much, but probably a little less than 30 seconds or so. Getting a 1st down did not guarantee the win.

[TD_washingtonredskins]

Not true. Since the pats called a pass that went incomplete before the 4th down play, the Colts still had a TO left. 1 TO, plus the 2 minute warning, means even if they convert, the Colts could have still gotten ball back with some time on the clock if the Pats didn't convert another 1st down. Not much, but probably a little less than 30 seconds or so. Getting a 1st down did not guarantee the win.

Fair enough.

Converting that 4th down would have led to a situation where a 40-yard punt would have put your opponent 70+ yards away from a game-winning TD with less than 20 seconds on the clock and no timeouts. That's essentially 3 plays IF they can get out of bounds every time.

Anything can happen, but that's a much different scenario than putting Manning 70+ yards away with 2 minutes on the clock and 1 TO in his pocket.

[GhostofSparta]

The Patriots made 3 fatal errors in the last 2 1/2 minutes that led to the loss.

1. They burned 2 timeouts over the course of 3 plays when up by 6 points and under 3 minutes. Yes, neither TO actually stopped the clock, but how often do the Pats have the wrong personel in on a play? And the confusion before the 4th down play leading to another burned TO. Poor clock management.

2. They didn't run it on 3rd down. You have 3rd and 2, the Colts have 1 TO left and the2 minute warning. If Bellicheck knows he is going for it on 4th, it's 2 down territory, and with that line you can gain 2 yards on 2 running plays.

3. 4th and 2, game on the line....you throw a 3 yard curl to Kevin Faulk? Really? You have Randy Moss and Wes Welker, one of the most lethal WR combos in the NFL, and you throw a 3 yard curl to your RB? Just doesn't make sense.

And to be honest, I'm amazed nobody's yet commented on the Dallas comment I quoted. I'm just a little dissapointed tr1 (at bare minimum) hasn't jumped all over it yet.