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ESPN-Tuesday Morning Quarterback: Bottom line is, Bill Belichick was right


GhostofSparta

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Their 4th down conversion percentage is high because they go for it on 4th down to run up the score against crappy teams.

What's their 4th down conversion rate against good defenses, who are pumped up because the game is on the line? Probably not as good, although I have no way of knowing since the very premise is so subjective.

Well, I don't know what the pumped factor is, because I am not captain of a junior high football team.

The funny thing is, I think they actually made it.

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Actually, I think Belly's worst mistake was burning his last timeout before that play. If he'd had a timeout he could have at least challenged it. Poor time management all around considering after the Colts got the ball they were able to pretty much run out the clock with a couple running plays.

Yeah, but the problem with that is, the ruling on the field was that it was short. Therefore, when they watched the replay it would have been clear that Faulk juggled it, when he first got his hands on it. It would only have been a first down had the ball not been moving around. That's why he didn't get forward progress.

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It was the right decision.

Its not even all that complicated.

If you convert the 4th down the game is essentially over.

Herman Edwards sublime point applies here: You play to WIN the game.

The best chance to win the game was right then and there.

If you punt you're playing not to lose; your hoping your defense can stop them.

Its a distinction that many people miss(Shanahan doesn't), you play to WIN the game:

http://www.nfl.com/videos/denver-broncos/09000d5d80ad513d/Eddie-Royal-Highlight-WK-02-vs-Chargers-2008

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