The Benefit of Sherm Williams Playcalling

[kovachs]

They plays were better last night and I felt there was more of a game plan. However, the offensive line is just ridiculous. No quarterback can last more than a few games getting sacked 6 times and knocked down 14 times a game. You do that for more than a couple of weeks and your quarterback will get hurt. If Todd Collins gets behind an offensive line like that he will not last more than two weeks.

[Oldfan]

Oldfan, I think going for it on 4th down in the first quarter is different than going for it in the 4th...and probabilities play out over the long run and can be quite dicey for that individual situation.

The probabilities will be the same regardless of the situation. If we held a lead of 17, going for it would have been a mistake. Down 17, going for it is a no-brainer in that situation given the probabilities.

Now, if we had a fourth down and four on the +23, then you try for the 40 yard FG because the chances of scoring a TD even if you make the first down are higher.

[darrelgreenie]

We threw the ball in the RZ and scored.

Imo, that's enough of an improvement.

[Oldfan]

Barring a complete collapse by the offense, we could safely predict that the posters who griped about Zorn's playcalling would see some improvement.

[BornToHail]

The probabilities will be the same regardless of the situation. If we held a lead of 17, going for it would have been a mistake. Down 17, going for it is a no-brainer in that situation given the probabilities.

Now, if we had a fourth down and four on the +23, then you try for the 40 yard FG because the chances of scoring a TD even if you make the first down are higher.

Sorry, you're right. I mean the consequences are different.

In the end, a field goal, I believe keeps you in a game. While I understand getting the TD will make it easier later on, I think the consequence of missing the conversion or TD will be worse than if you have to kick off and defend a 3 and out there. In the fourth quarter the clock is your enemy when you're down by 3 scores...

Different philosophies.

[str8jacket]

Here's the problem. The problem on offense is this: No one group is consistently good. You have one play where the line protects great, but campbell does a lousy job on the read, then throws a crap pass. Then the next play the o line gets torched and campbell gets sacked. The next play the o line and campbell do well but a wr drops the ball. next play the wr's get open, but its a bad throw. It's inconsistency and what can you say with all the injuries. Alot of young players on the field. Growing pains. Add in a bad play call once in a while and the inconsistencies just keep going. But overall the playcalling isn't the biggest problem. Its all about execution as a team.

[Lombardi's_kid_brother]

Absolutely. The Skins made the right call in that position.

When I heard Gruden's call, I added one more reason that I wouldn't want him coaching here.

The field goal extends the game.

Not scoring the TD ends the game.

[KDawg]

The field goal extends the game.

Not scoring the TD ends the game.

And not scoring two more TDs ends the game anyways.

Going for it and failing, but keeping the Eagles pinned does NOT end the game, by the way. In the same fashion that kicking a field goal, making it, and then the defense allowing a few first downs ends the game.

The game isn't over until it's over. "Ends the game" is cliche.

[Enforcer_FFX]

We threw the ball in the RZ and scored.

Imo, that's enough of an improvement.

Amen - for once, it wasn't "Portis, Left" over and over and over. They actually made some TD scoring plays in RZ. It's not much, but it's better than the usual.

[RED06]

By the time those two scored, The Eagles were protecting their lead. Sherm did nothing.

Is that why the Eagles where still throwing the ball on offense and blitzing on defense?

RED06

[RED06]

the 13 points we gifted the eagles from errors was the difference

You think so? Or was it the 2 explosive plays that Carlos Rogers and the D gave up......................

RED06

[Lombardi's_kid_brother]

And not scoring two more TDs ends the game anyways.

Going for it and failing, but keeping the Eagles pinned does NOT end the game, by the way. In the same fashion that kicking a field goal, making it, and then the defense allowing a few first downs ends the game.

The game isn't over until it's over. "Ends the game" is cliche.

Well, Andy Reid's clock management skills being prominently involved helped matters significantly. If Andy runs three dives, he kicks the ball back to the 50 with 3:00 minutes left, a 17-point lead, and the Redskins having no time-outs.

The field goal followed by an onside kick is the play there.

In fairness, there ain't a lot of options down 17 with 5 minutes to go. But Gruden seemed to think it was a no-brainer and so did I.

[Loyal2Washington]

So the Redskins offense get a junk TD under 2 mins. of a game that was decided in the first half and this is a major achievement??? Well lets break the Kool-aid back out and start drinking.

Oh BTW nice thread Vinny we looked much better last night not converting third downs, turning the ball over, not being able to rush the ball and not hitting anything deep.

[HailNatsSkinz]

It is not right to say that SW didnt have an impact tonite--as Zorn alluded to in his presser. Here are some of the points.

#1. Points. The Eagles arent the Rams, the Chiefs, the Lions. The Iggles, although I hate them are a 4-2 team. We scored 17 against them. We scored 13 points total against the Rams and the Chiefs. Yes 13 points in 2 games TOTAL. 17 points in 1 game against a far better opponent looks like a step up to me. Add in the Fact that we dont have Samuels on the OL, then it is even more impressive.

#2. The Redshirts. I personally got sick of Zorn and the coaches blasting DT, MK, Rhinehart and Davis for being lazy, dumb...blah blah blah. Why dont you just kill our rookies? 3-2nd round picks and a third rounder and you expect me to believe theyre ALL busts- they all cant play? Isnt it amazing that once you get rid of Zorn's inability to develop young talent and his dumb playcalling, DT and Davis score 2 tds on 11 catches and 123 yds.

Our picks arent busts, our coaching staff's inability to utilize and devlop these guys are.

Good post. The animosity towards Snyder and Cerrato is blinding people from how terrible Zorn is as a coach. He is also very arrogant and does not take blame for anything. I officially hate Zorn after that smart ass presser of his yesterday. What an idiot.

[REDMAN7]

If not already mentioned...unlike the Carolina game, the Skins scored their 17 pts without turnover help from the D. Still a train wreck, but a little less impotent than last week.

IMO the play calling was certainly better. 17pts against Philly is far better than 6pts against the 32nd ranked Chiefs D.

[THE HAMMER'IN HOG]

The game was over for reasons besides playcalling. Turnovers and missed defensive assignments led to 14 points and the game being over in the first half.

The scoring is a major achievement. We are 2-4 against the worst teams in the league and some of the worst to ever play the game. We scored single digits against the Rams,Chiefs. We scored 14 against a 0-19 Lions team that may be the second worst team ever. We scored 16 against a putrid TB team. 17 points against the Iggles is a step forward esp without our pro bowl LT. Not to see that is hard to believe.

The OL is in shambles, JC has no brain and Zorn is in way over his head. To write off our 2nd years is just silly.

As if there wasn't blown coverage in the Eagles defense, the difference was Mcnabb was able to take advantage of them unlike Campbell.

Stop with the 17 points, JC scored another meaningless TD late in the game down by 3 scores, in reality he managed 1 TD drive. Funny how JC can always pad his stats for the Monday morning JC apologists, or in this case Tuesday morning with an utter meaningless consolation stat padding drive for a TD. He never seems to be able to do it when we are actually in the game though, what a coincidence?

[Oldfan]

The field goal extends the game.

Not scoring the TD ends the game.

The objective is to win the game, not to "extend" it.

[Loyal2Washington]

#2. The Redshirts. I personally got sick of Zorn and the coaches blasting DT, MK, Rhinehart and Davis for being lazy, dumb...blah blah blah. Why dont you just kill our rookies? 3-2nd round picks and a third rounder and you expect me to believe theyre ALL busts- they all cant play? Isnt it amazing that once you get rid of Zorn's inability to develop young talent and his dumb playcalling, DT and Davis score 2 tds on 11 catches and 123 yds.

Our picks arent busts, our coaching staff's inability to utilize and devlop these guys are.

LOL!!! I'm so happy that you think our great young players stepped up last night. I guess being down at half by 17 and forced to throw damn near every second half play didn't inflate those stats?

Forget the fact that 4 of Davis catches, half his total, and TD came late in the fourth when the game was over, and what a performance by DT, I mean if anyone every looked like a clone of Jerry Rice it was him with that monumental 3 catch performance. Oh and talk about stepping up huge Malcolm Kelly doing absolutely nothing was breathtaking to watch, and have you ever seen anyone fill an inactive hole like Chad Rhino??? Yes sir last night clearly showed those young guys abilities to take over a huge blowout loss.

[RandyHolt]

Sherm gets a C

Dont be impressed with the DT TD. it was the same old short crap pass to Moss at the 2 yd line :doh: Jason, still remembering what Gibbs taught him, held back. Decoy Thomas, never covered because we never pass to any young WR, was wide open.

On the pass Jason "missed" the TD to Moss. Again, it was the same old short crap where Moss is blanketed. Our only hope a pass interference. Jason looked away, Moss goes deep. Why didn't Sherm dial up a pump fake and go at that same corner? Does the west coast not have that play call? I dont think they do. Philly exploited a similar weakness in our D for 7, we didnt even try.

Why in the world do we week after week try to throw fades to our tiny WR's in the end zone. Why are they even on the field?

[Koolblue13]

So we cleared our coaches job to do other things.

Why couldn't he calm down JC and get the kids head back in the game?

Seriously, that was his most important job last night.

[KDawg]

The objective is to win the game, not to "extend" it.

Exactly.

So we cleared our coaches job to do other things.

Why couldn't he calm down JC and get the kids head back in the game?

Seriously, that was his most important job last night.

Because it's not something that can be done through a coach. Campbell is in his own head, only one that can stop that is Campbell.

[SoCalSkins]

All those calls were good calls. You are aligned with the old, conservative coaching theories. I suggest you read up on the topic beginning with It's Fourth Down, What Does the Bellman Equation Say? by economist David Romer. I think it's still online. The author studied more than 20,000 NFL plays and pulled out about 1,100 fourth-down calls by coaches, 900 were the wrong calls based on probability. The study influenced Belichick to become the most aggressive NFL coach in going for it on fourth down.

There are also a couple of stat-oriented websites with recent artricles including one which studied the Zorn calls that you challenge.

You actually brought this up before. It was in a fast moving thread, so you might have missed my response.

Here is your post with the link:

Smart coaches play the percentages. Belichick would have gone for it just as Zorn did because David Romer's study of 20, 000 plays and 1,100 fourth and short NFL calls proved that the percentages favor going for it in that situation. If Jim wasn't aware of it before, we can bet that Chris Meidt, the math whiz, has briefed Zorn on Romer's paper.

"It's Fourth Down and What Does the Bellman Equation Say?

My response to you:

Interesting read but it is very flawed. Biggest flaw is the weight he gives momentum. His theory is that momentum has zero impact on the decision because the gain in momentum is offset by the loss in momentum. This is not the case early in a game.

A team going for it on 4th and short is expected to get the first down or TD. When they do, they met expectations. Conversely, stopping a team on 4th and short gives a huge momentum boost.

The only way his theory works is if teams also went for it on 4th and long. The momentum boost on 4th and 10 being converted would fall in line with the boost a defense gets on stopping a 4th and 1. However, teams will not go for it on 4th and long.

His use of 3rd down stats to extrapolate 4th down predictions is also highly flawed. The way he adjust his formula gives the offense an unrealistic boost in probability for success.

Additionally, the situations are far different, the stakes are far higher. It is a game of emotion. If more teams actually use this theory, then he can use actual data to support it.

He also lumps all NFL teams together. There is no analysis for differences between strengths of the opponent and the team playing. New Orleans on offense and Tampa on offense are given the same probability and defenses are conversely the same. The NFL is not a 32 sided dice.

Also, he makes broad assumptions about the impact of the play. He basically looks at each play on its own and not connected with the rest of the game. Kind of going back to the momentum argument, but his value chart does not take into account the score at the time. It is simply a down and distance formula.

It does not take into account a team scoring first and their increased likelihood of winning a game.

He also uses statistics of teams having to start near their own endzone. However, it does not take into account momentum here either. Typically when a team is near its own endzone, there was a very solid special teams play that took place. The defense is pumped up, the offense is not. Following, a failure on 4th down it is the opposite.

He basically states that out of 1100 situations his formula suggests going for it, 992 times NFL teams kicked instead. That is a flaw of his formula. There might be some bias, but a discrepancy that large has other factors involved. These guys are professional coaches at top of their professions.

When the two point conversion was introduced several years ago, similar statistical theories were made. Some coaches followed them and were burned by it. What the formula also does not account for is ongoing impact. If the perception among NFL coaches and fans is that you should kick 992 out of 1100 times and you go against that and fail, the repercussion to your reputation as a coach, criticism in the media and among fans will be exponentially higher. The formula does not account for that either.

It is a cute theory to use in Madden, but has no place in the NFL. Although it might work well at St. Olaf with short QB's.

The probabilities will be the same regardless of the situation. If we held a lead of 17, going for it would have been a mistake. Down 17, going for it is a no-brainer in that situation given the probabilities.

Now, if we had a fourth down and four on the +23, then you try for the 40 yard FG because the chances of scoring a TD even if you make the first down are higher.

That is another fallacy. Probabilities are not the same in different situations and are not uniform on individual teams. This assumption is far too simplistic. The NFL is not a deck of cards or a bingo ball. The Redskins on 4th and 3 do not have the same probability of success as the Saints or Patriots on 4th and 3. Similarly, the Redskins against KC's defense do not have the same probability of success as they do against the Ravens or Steelers.

The NFL is a game of emotion and momentum. Good coaches know how to motivate their team in specific situations and factor in risk based on that knowledge and experience. General averages are fantastic for discovering tendencies and gaining advantages, but can't be used as the primary decision point on a crucial play.

With all of that aside, statistically taking a simplistic probability view of kicking the FG or going for it on 4th down. The correct call would have been to kick the FG. The Redskins are 5 for 11 on 4th down attempts. They were 2 for 10 on 3rd down last night at that point. Factoring in the position on the field in the red zone even reduces those numbers further, but we'll set that aside.

So Zorn took a 45% chance of success in that drive once and made it, then took the same chance again. The repeat doesn't factor in if you look at each decision on its own, but the success only gives you another set of downs unless you are 4th and goal. It doesn't give you the TD. The probability of Suisham hitting the FG at that range was in the upper 90% range.

With the time left on the clock and down 17. Statistically, you take the FG every time.

The objective is to win the game, not to "extend" it.

Again, unless you are 4th and goal, a successful 4th down conversion only extends the game. Unless you score a TD, you get another set of downs. Kicking the FG gives you 3, makes it a 2 score game and let's you attempt an onside or go for the defensive stop.

[fansince62]

The game was over early in the second quarter. Not a hallmark of good playcalling.

Scoring 17 points against the Eagles, especially in a game that was never in doubt, is not particularly mind boggling: Carolina 10, NO 38, KC14, TB 14, Oakland 13. Hardly a great offensive effort, unless you think scoring 3-4 more points than KC, TB and Oakland is a major achievement.

Watching Desean Jackson was enough to remind me what a monumental bust the 2008 draft was. DT did a good job getting open for his TD; he had at least two other passes ricochet off his hands like they were made of cement. I thought Davis played pretty well in relief, but if you can't dump off passes to you TE when your down by 17, you've really got problems. Kelly - was he in the game? I thought I heard his name called, but 0 catches per usual. Kelly, Thomas and Davis have been in the league for nearly a year and a half, and not one of them has 200 career receiving yards yet. Thomas and Kelly are busts. Davis could be a good blocker and a fair receiver - since he's been playing behind Cooley, its not fair to judge him yet. But he has a lot to show for the rest of the year.

it was over cuz the defense played like *rap early on and our vaunted QB couldn't execute...hold onto the ball. Lewis' playcalls were creating opportunities...you could see it. depsite the fcat that JC is a total zero as a QB...you could see plays opening up in the Red Zone that just weren't there before. ever watch how the better QBs down at the goal line get the ball out of their hands in a hurry or scramble with their eyes up field?....JC does neither...he is a net detriment. he may be getting pounded....but in the end he is not executing and he is a major part of the problem. it's been obvious for a while now. only apologists refuse to see that these are problems that exist indpendent of o-line performance.

as for the 2008 draft....I am by no means a Vinny fan...but I still think all three could be very capable NFL players. this team has a horrible record developing talent and it has no QB. get a real GM in place, a real coaching staff.......and let's see what happens

[thewagen]

It is not right to say that SW didnt have an impact tonite--as Zorn alluded to in his presser. Here are some of the points.

#1. Points. The Eagles arent the Rams, the Chiefs, the Lions. The Iggles, although I hate them are a 4-2 team. We scored 17 against them. We scored 13 points total against the Rams and the Chiefs. Yes 13 points in 2 games TOTAL. 17 points in 1 game against a far better opponent looks like a step up to me. Add in the Fact that we dont have Samuels on the OL, then it is even more impressive.

#2. The Redshirts. I personally got sick of Zorn and the coaches blasting DT, MK, Rhinehart and Davis for being lazy, dumb...blah blah blah. Why dont you just kill our rookies? 3-2nd round picks and a third rounder and you expect me to believe theyre ALL busts- they all cant play? Isnt it amazing that once you get rid of Zorn's inability to develop young talent and his dumb playcalling, DT and Davis score 2 tds on 11 catches and 123 yds.

Our picks arent busts, our coaching staff's inability to utilize and devlop these guys are.

Admittedly by Zorn, 10 points came when he ignored the Cerrato demand and he called plays himself at some key spots..may get him fired for cause though. Call it a Mercy firing...

Also, Sherm didn't seem to have any regard to the pass proptection issues with his calls. Jason kept getting hammered. I think in JZ's defense, he altered his calls to afford Jason better protection, thus sacrificing big plays but keeping his QB Upright! That three step drop crap with Jason gettinghit on every play because Heyer and the TE couldn't stop anyone was ridiculous! The best course of action then would be for quick draws, roll-outs and no-huddle. But I didn't see ShermL call any of that!

[darrelgreenie]

Also, Sherm didn't seem to have any regard to the pass proptection issues with his calls. Jason kept getting hammered. I think in JZ's defense, he altered his calls to afford Jason better protection, thus sacrificing big plays but keeping his QB Upright!

I like the fact the Sherm doesn't let the pass protection or lack there of hindering him from making certain calls.

Imo one of Zorn's issues with playcalling was because he might be too close to Campbell and as a former NFL QB he might be too familiar with getting pounded.

Call the plays and force JC to find away to make it work, he'll be forced to hold the OL accountable and they may be better for it, it might also help the team focus on their blitz pick-ups and audible system.

JC started out rough but by the end of the game when the pass rush was still coming he was more comfortable with anticipation the rush and was able to make an athletic move to avoid it.

That three step drop crap with Jason gettinghit on every play because Heyer and the TE couldn't stop anyone was ridiculous! The best course of action then would be for quick draws, roll-outs and no-huddle. But I didn't see ShermL call any of that!

JC getting hit on a 3 step isn't a playcalling issues its a pass protection issue.

The purpose of a 3 step drop is to nullify the rush by getting the ball out quick.

If a QB is getting hit on a 3 step drop the OL just has to be better.

Now Fred Davis on Trent Cole 1-on-1 was a :doh:

Give the dude some time, he's only been here 2 weeks.

I was happy just to see passing into the endzone from inside the 10.

HTTR!