mistertim Posted April 22, 2009 Share Posted April 22, 2009 Really 65.8% completion, 3207 yards, 34 touchdowns, 164 QB rating for the season computes to failing statistics? Sanchez does fine in the comp % portion, but is very worrisome in the games started. If you look at some of the more successful NFL QBs (or even decent ones) you will see that they started plenty of games in college. If you look at some of the busts, you'll see an opposite correlation. Big Ben: 38 starts Philip Rivers: 49 starts Donovan McNabb: 45 starts Peyton Manning: 45 starts Eli Manning: 37 starts Jay Cutler: 43 starts Carson Palmer: 45 starts Daunte Culpepper: 43 starts The other side: Akili Smith: 11 starts Tim Couch: 25 starts Alex Smith: 22 starts David Carr: 26 starts Ryan Leaf: 24 starts Joey Harrington: 26 starts Mike Vick: 21 starts (he was relatively successful as an NFL athlete but was never a high quality QB or put up any higher than a 56% comp rate in the NFL) Of course there are outliers. Breese only started 26 games and eventually became very good in the NFL. Grossman started 32 games and is "meh". Cade McNown started 42 games. But like I said, those are the exception, not the rule. So Sanchez has started 16 games. That puts him way at the bottom of the heap. He put up great numbers and has plenty of talent and potential, but the same stuff was said about many of the guys above who didn't start many games but shot up the draft boards because of their potential and stats they put up in their starts (a big Bowl Game performance helps quite a bit too). If we drafted Sanchez I would want him to sit for AT LEAST 1 season before he started. Even Carson Palmer, who was a better prospect and was almost a full 4 year starter at USC, sat for a year to learn and get up to speed. This kid is definitely boom or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Acre Posted April 22, 2009 Share Posted April 22, 2009 Another way to make the point is good RT's don't seem that hard to find in comparison to franchise QB's. That's true. It's not like franchise QBs have ever been found in, say, round 3 or 6. Really, do you think guys like Montana and Brady last that long? No way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
onnie007 Posted April 22, 2009 Share Posted April 22, 2009 I don't know who Schein is but I agree with him on this point. What are we going to do this year with 3 big holes on our team and a 1st QB draft pick who is on the bench and not ready to contribute. If the Redskins select Sanchez, the will give ESPN even more stuff to rag on us about. I think ESPN wants us to draft him so they can write the stories of Sanchez's struggles in D.C. and JC's rise elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SWFLSkins Posted April 22, 2009 Share Posted April 22, 2009 Dan Snyder wont be outbid again on a QB he covets. I just keep picturing Rick Moaranis in that oversized helmet (Snyder):saber:running around in the draft room complaining about being outbid again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mistertim Posted April 22, 2009 Share Posted April 22, 2009 That's true. It's not like franchise QBs have ever been found in, say, round 3 or 6. Really, do you think guys like Montana and Brady last that long? No way. Why do we keep seeing this stuff? For every Tom Brady there are hundreds of QBs drafted in the late rounds who are bagging groceries now. Stop using outliers as a reference point. It is nonsensical. As far as RT. Check the starting RTs in the NFL vs the starting QBs. I'm betting you'll find QUITE a bit more RTs that were drafted after the 1st, or even in mid to late rounds, than starting QBs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skinsinparadise Posted April 22, 2009 Share Posted April 22, 2009 That's true. It's not like franchise QBs have ever been found in, say, round 3 or 6. Really, do you think guys like Montana and Brady last that long? No way. Are you making the point that franchise QB's are found as commonly in round 3-6 as RT's? If not sorry am not following what you are trying to say. If that's your point clearly there are players in EVERY position SOMETIMES found in later rounds, but we are talking probabilities. It seems IMO easier to find a good RT than QB period, never mind even talking about in which round. Sanchez does fine in the comp % portion, but is very worrisome in the games started. If you look at some of the more successful NFL QBs (or even decent ones) you will see that they started plenty of games in college. If you look at some of the busts, you'll see an opposite correlation. Of course there are outliers. Breese only started 26 games and eventually became very good in the NFL. Grossman started 32 games and is "meh". Cade McNown started 42 games. But like I said, those are the exception, not the rule. This kid is definitely boom or bust. Yeah I know his lack of starts is what gives some people pause. My whole thing is simple, I don't think I am qualified to judge Sanchez. You say he is "definitely" boom or bust -- what makes you confident to give a definite verdict here? I presume that Zorn knows a heck of a lot more about QB's than we do. And I would assume he knows how to judge them, I doubt if he came onto this board he would be taking notes. I don't really have a dog in the draft Sanchez or not debate -- for me its I think we have the right guy here to make that call. If Zorn thinks Campbell has the goods, and the best thing to do is trade down and give him a RT like Britton, am on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rocky52Mc Posted April 22, 2009 Author Share Posted April 22, 2009 I just hate to picture Snyder going after a QB he likes and getting him just to prove that he won't be outbid. I think when you look at Snyder's era, this is exactly how we always FAIL. Skip draft picks and trade them = Traded Players busted Having no players from draft picks = No young talent Grabbing 10 picks in a draft for a change and adding youth to the roster when the team desperately needs young talent= 3 questions marks at receiver, a busted punter cut mid-season, a decent safety, some guys who might one day play (Chad, Tryon). Signing coaches with great reputation = mediocrity and even a HOF could only achieve that here. Signing a no-named coach to a team with talent and finally grooming our own coach = Mediocrity I wish Snyder could just define this team as something and stick to the damn plan. It's one thing to learn from your mistakes, it's completely different thing to actually fix your mistakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brandon Lloyd Christmas Posted April 22, 2009 Share Posted April 22, 2009 campbell is def better than clemmons, but if zorn thinks sanchez can do better in this offense than campbell we need to get it done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peregrine Posted April 22, 2009 Share Posted April 22, 2009 I think we have a very good ability to judge talent in Washington. If Snyder oozes over the talent, you pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skinsinparadise Posted April 22, 2009 Share Posted April 22, 2009 campbell is def better than clemmons, but if zorn thinks sanchez can do better in this offense than campbell we need to get it done. IMO Exactly, Zorn clearly has studied Campbell like crazy and works closely with him in practice, in the off season, etc. Zorn was a long time starter in the league and long time QB coach. I bet he knows a thing or two about that position that we don't. Something tells me that Zorn would have a clue about Campbell's abilities and something tells me he can put it into context in terms of the team's play makers and protection. And wouldn't need us to explain it to him that Campbell needs to be judged within that context. And something tells me since Zorn calls the plays, he knows how good Campbell has been at executing them and can put it into the context of what broke down. Something tells me Zorn watches the tape after the games! Maybe Zorn does love Campbell, this isn't a hit on Jason, its just that if they do make a move on Sanchez, am doubting its becuase Zorn has no clue about Campbell's abilities and we know better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mistertim Posted April 22, 2009 Share Posted April 22, 2009 Yeah I know his lack of starts is what gives some people pause. My whole thing is simple, I don't think I am qualified to judge Sanchez. You say he is "definitely" boom or bust -- what makes you confident to give a definite verdict here? I presume that Zorn knows a heck of a lot more about QB's than we do. And I would assume he knows how to judge them, I doubt if he came onto this board he would be taking notes.I don't really have a dog in the draft Sanchez or not debate -- for me its I think we have the right guy here to make that call. If Zorn thinks Campbell has the goods, and the best thing to do is trade down and give him a RT like Britton, am on board. Oh I know Zorn knows much more about the QB position than me or anyone else on this board; I'm certainly not claiming the opposite. However, the concern I have is how much say Zorn will really truly have when it comes to a guy Snyder and Vinny are seemingly in love with. If he is a lone (and probably weak) voice in an echo chamber with Danny and Vinny and whoever else then any doubts he might have will likely hardly even register much with them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brandon Lloyd Christmas Posted April 22, 2009 Share Posted April 22, 2009 no one has answered my question that ive asked a few times: when was the last time we were this enamored with a player and didnt get him? and not cutler, because we actually wanted cutler and tried hard to get him. this is mainly going against the people who claim this is some smokescreen. can we all agree that the FO wants sanchez? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skinsinparadise Posted April 22, 2009 Share Posted April 22, 2009 Oh I know Zorn knows much more about the QB position than me or anyone else on this board; I'm certainly not claiming the opposite. However, the concern I have is how much say Zorn will really truly have when it comes to a guy Snyder and Vinny are seemingly in love with. If he is a lone (and probably weak) voice in an echo chamber with Danny and Vinny and whoever else then any doubts he might have will likely hardly even register much with them. I understand where you are coming from and I hate a lot of what the FO has done -- in particular trading draft picks for veterans. I would suspect that they would trust the resident expert when it comes to the QB position. Really that's Zorn whole pedigree and arguably why he was hired. IMO Danny and Vinny are overeager to win and give up too much when they want something -- its hard for me to picture Zorn telling those guys he's not excited about Sanchez and he thinks Campbell is as good or better -- but them being excited to do this anyway. We do know that Zorn was at the meeting with Sanchez so at the very least he can't be completely out of the loop. And who knows we will see how into this they are on draft day, because maybe the whole Sanchez thing is overplayed. Personally am not one of the Campbell haters on the board, so there is no wishful thinking on my end either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Going Commando Posted April 22, 2009 Share Posted April 22, 2009 Why spend all the money to fix the 2nd bathroom of the house when you're missing a roof to protect you from the rain? What's the roof in this metaphor? And what's the second bathroom? I'm interpreting you to mean that the roof is the offensive line who would protect our quarterback. Makes sense, but the QB is not just a second bathroom It's the single most important position on the team. To keep going with the Abraham Lincoln-like housing metaphors, the QB is the foundation because you can't build a passing offense without one. The fact of the matter is that if the FO and coaching staff don't think Campbell can take us anywhere and they aren't going to resign him, it's time to get a viable replacement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Going Commando Posted April 22, 2009 Share Posted April 22, 2009 no one has answered my question that ive asked a few times:when was the last time we were this enamored with a player and didnt get him? and not cutler, because we actually wanted cutler and tried hard to get him. this is mainly going against the people who claim this is some smokescreen. can we all agree that the FO wants sanchez? Depends on how far he falls. I don't think we'd get him at 3 or 5 because it'd be too rich for even Snyder's blood. (And it's colored green with money!) But if he falls to eight then you see the discussion begin and if he is still there at 9 or 10 I think there is a 70-80% chance we take him. Now, if by a small miracle he falls to 13, I think there is a 99% chance we take him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mistertim Posted April 22, 2009 Share Posted April 22, 2009 I understand where you are coming from and I hate a lot of what the FO has done -- in particular trading draft picks for veterans. I would suspect that they would trust the resident expert when it comes to the QB position. Really that's Zorn whole pedigree and arguably why he was hired. IMO Danny and Vinny are overeager to win and give up too much when they want something -- its hard for me to picture Zorn telling those guys he's not excited about Sanchez and he thinks Campbell is as good or better -- but them being excited to do this anyway. We do know that Zorn was at the meeting with Sanchez so at the very least he can't be completely out of the loop. And who knows we will see how into this they are on draft day, because maybe the whole Sanchez thing is overplayed. Personally am not one of the Campbell haters on the board, so there is no wishful thinking on my end either way. I definitely don't think Zorn is "out of the loop", I just question exactly how they are approaching him about it. Danny and Vinny apparently love the kid. So what if they say to Zorn "We really want to draft this kid, he looks great, he may be inexperienced but that's why we have you here. You can work with him, right? You can make him successful." What is Zorn likely to say? "No, I'm not really sure I can. He certainly has talent but is too inexperienced to start any time soon" or "Well...yeah he has talent...yeah I could do it." I'm guessing the latter. He would be in a tough spot. His boss wants something and is willing to give up quite a bit to get it. He might have reservations about the kid, or at least how long it would be before he could play a down, and he knows we are in serious need of O line and other positions. But would he be willing to stand pat if it came down to it? No way to know. Hell, I could be completely wrong and Zorn could be enamored with Sanchez too. But I find it hard to believe that he wouldn't find his lack of starting experience at least a bit disconcerting considering where they would be drafting him or that they might even move up to draft him. However, I do remember him being interviewed by (I think it was) Larry Michael regarding the draft, etc and when asked about the QB thing he very briefly made a little face. He sort of sucked in his lower lip and took a quick breath. To me that looked like frustration. But who knows, it could be that he was just trying to be wary of giving anything away. It just made me wonder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Veretax Posted April 22, 2009 Share Posted April 22, 2009 no one has answered my question that ive asked a few times:when was the last time we were this enamored with a player and didnt get him? and not cutler, because we actually wanted cutler and tried hard to get him. this is mainly going against the people who claim this is some smokescreen. can we all agree that the FO wants sanchez? In terms of the draft? or Free Agents? Last year it was reportedly Ocho Cinco a 1st a 3rd that escalates to a 1st with metrics.... Also, How about Calvin Johnson, we were all over him till we realized he was gone. Before that I didn't really have good sources to follow the skins so I can't go back much further than that :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Going Commando Posted April 22, 2009 Share Posted April 22, 2009 That's true. It's not like franchise QBs have ever been found in, say, round 3 or 6. Really, do you think guys like Montana and Brady last that long? No way. If you have to go to two of the all time greats to find who franchise QBs who were taken that late, that should be a sign of the weakness of your argument. Because for every Brady and Montana there is a Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Jay Cutler, Donovan McNabb, Carson Palmer, Phil Rivers, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Kerry Collins, and Aaron Rodgers. All good QBs who are crucial pieces of their teams offense. And that's just today's landscape in the NFL. Not only that, I bet you could find 10 times as many excellent right tackles taken after round 1. You simply aren't going to win an argument claiming that a franchise QB is less important or easier to find than even an exceptional starting RT. 9 times out of 10, if you want an excellent QB prospect, you are going to have to take him in the first round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Going Commando Posted April 22, 2009 Share Posted April 22, 2009 The offensive line is troubling but you know what... so is quarterback. If you are Zorn and Cerrato and you think Sanchez will offer you a substantial upgrade over Campbell in the WCO, then you pick him. You figure you got your WCO receivers last year in Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly. You've got your tight ends. And you have a few promising young guards on the team. So you pick Sanchez and your man at Center this year, and then get the two young OT prospects you like best next year via the draft or FA. Then you give Zorn at-least 4 years total to put it all together and you grab a half decent running back somewhere down the road and you've got yourself an offense. That is how it needs to be built, and that's only 3 off seasons by going through the draft. Just about whatever we do, Campbell and Heyer/Jansen are going to be our starters next year anyway. So you might as well make the best long term pick. My only concern is that we give Zorn enough time to get his people in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Sisko Posted April 22, 2009 Share Posted April 22, 2009 Really 65.8% completion, 3207 yards, 34 touchdowns, 164 QB rating for the season computes to failing statistics? (Edit: if you read at the bottom of my post, I spell out that Peyton Manning's completion rate in college was lower than Sanchez's #'s.)And if so how come none of the other NFL draft geeks are tearing apart Sanchez's stats? And how come the Redskins and the draft geeks aren't aware that there is a specific analysis that predicts success as QB or if they are why are they ignoring it? A lot of people tout how Belichick found Brady in the 6th round but I was watching a show last night where Belichick said it wasn't him but their QB coach. We have arguably one of the best QB coaches in the NFL who happened to play the position -- am trusting he would know a thing or two about scouting Sanchez and for that matter know the weaknesses and strengths of Campbell and how protection play into it. I am assuming Zorn isn't lost about how to factor in everything when it comes to making a decision here. I really doubt we are bringing up observations that haven't crossed his mind. I didn't say late in the draft, I specifically said a 2nd or 3rd rounder Since I pointed out that's the position that needs fixing, how am I sleeping on it? If you read my post closely I said that its tougher to find a franchise QB than a RT. Edit: I just looked up Peyon Mannings statistics, you said completion percentage is one of two variables in success and failure. OK well Peyton Manning's completion percentage in his last college season was 60.37, and never in his college career matched Sanchez's completion rate as a starter. See this article which has a link to Lewin's original F.O. article on the subject. 60% accuracy is the cutoff so I was wrong-Sanchez meets one of the two criteria. But hey, cut me some slack. I was not only posting from memory, I was also driving at the time. The former is probably equally as dangerous as the latter. :paranoid: Because of Sanchez's accuracy, Lewin says he's probably a better prospect than Stafford. However, that's somewhat balanced by Sanchez's small number of starts (i.e. small sample size) at USC. In other words, if he works out, he'll likely be very good, however there's a very real risk that his numbers, though good, are an anomaly and he'll end up as yet another early college exit bust. My hunch is that Sanchez saw Leinart lose a bunch of $$$ by staying an extra year and decided to come out early before he (Sanchez) potentially hurt his 2010 draft position. Since you seem to have your panties all in a bunch and are getting all offended by things, don't take that last comment the wrong way. I'm NOT saying Sanchez thinks he's a bust and is taking the money and running. Rather, I think he knows he's got everything to lose and nothing to gain by staying an extra year. I'd do the exact same thing if I were him regardless of my confidence in my ability. FWIW, I do take Lewin's work with a grain of salt since he did say Leinart was the "safe" pick in that draft. Even so, Kevin Seifert from ESPN came up with similar questions about Sanchez. He ranked Sanchez slightly ahead of Daunte Culpepper and interestingly, a few slots behind JC. Finally, to answer your question about why none of the draftniks are tearing Sanchez apart, the anwer is simple-marketing and money. The NFL draft is a great marketing tool for the league, provides a lot of buzz and facetime for the draftniks and nobody is checking their results. Therefore, they're only there to pump up the hype on the players and collect a check in the process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brandon Lloyd Christmas Posted April 22, 2009 Share Posted April 22, 2009 In terms of the draft? or Free Agents?Last year it was reportedly Ocho Cinco a 1st a 3rd that escalates to a 1st with metrics.... Also, How about Calvin Johnson, we were all over him till we realized he was gone. Before that I didn't really have good sources to follow the skins so I can't go back much further than that :/ we were never all over calvin johnson, everybody just realized he was a beast. we never took him out to dinner and wined and dined him (to my knowledge) and had this many outlets claiming we wanted him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CommanderDOOM Posted April 22, 2009 Share Posted April 22, 2009 How many games did Matt Cassell start? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mistertim Posted April 22, 2009 Share Posted April 22, 2009 How many games did Matt Cassell start? Not much of a comparison. Cassell was pretty much a no risk aquisition as a 7th round pick. Many are talking about Sanchez going top 5 overall. Big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CommanderDOOM Posted April 22, 2009 Share Posted April 22, 2009 I ain't talking where someone picks him. How many games he started at USC under Pete Carroll in relation to it helping him in the NFL. He is built for the WCO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Veretax Posted April 22, 2009 Share Posted April 22, 2009 BLC, then I gotta be honest I can't remember the last Draft pick we were "all over" :/ My hunch is that Sanchez saw Leinart lose a bunch of $$$ by staying an extra year and decided to come out early before he (Sanchez) potentially hurt his 2010 draft position. Since you seem to have your panties all in a bunch and are getting all offended by things, don't take that last comment the wrong way. I'm NOT saying Sanchez thinks he's a bust and is taking the money and running. Rather, I think he knows he's got everything to lose and nothing to gain by staying an extra year. I'd do the exact same thing if I were him regardless of my confidence in my ability. I have two problems with that. First, there was another QB between Leinart and Sanchez that people forgot, John David Booty, who Minnesota drafted on the second day last year. Secondly, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure this out. Next year you have Snead, Bradford, Tebow, and Colt McCoy graduating and having to come out. This year there wasn't much depth at the QB Position. SO if you are any QB who is a top tier QB which draft gives you the best chance to go early and make money? I'd say this year, and Sanchez made the decision probably about how early he is drafted. Let's face it there haven't been many Drafts where 4 or more QBs go in the first round. I don't think the Money or Skill level or what happened to Leinart matters as much here, its just a back log of prospects next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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