Predictions: What to Look for From Jim Zorn in 2009

[Oldfan]

I agree with this, but I think this will just exacerbate our current OL woes. The current crop is a run-blocking unit. Without a major overhaul of the group going into next season, how can he justify not tailoring the scheme to fit the team's strengths? Prob every NFL team struggles with this in some fashion, but I've seen this show before.

The relative strengths of the O line to protect and run-block is just one factor of several to consider in the decision. Using the big receivers plus Betts in a spread with the shotgun to speed up the release seems to me to offer more benefits than pounding Portis for 16 games.

.

.. it's the slow delivery. He has to improve that, or Zorn is never going to get his wish here on a consistent basis.

Jason looked quicker and more compact to me compared to past seasons. Zorn says the work isn't finished yet.

[Skins_Throwback]

Cooley wasn't used at all in the red zone this year. Like he wasn't even on the field. This can not happen. Zorn totally had no idea what to do except for trying to run the football down close. Ram it down the opponents throat.

I wish the Skins would use Randle-El in the Wes Welker mode. But, I'm not sure he's tough enough to slant into the middle and take the hit on a regular basis.

[TheLongshot]

Cooley wasn't used at all in the red zone this year. Like he wasn't even on the field. This can not happen. Zorn totally had no idea what to do except for trying to run the football down close. Ram it down the opponents throat.

I wish the Skins would use Randle-El in the Wes Welker mode. But, I'm not sure he's tough enough to slant into the middle and take the hit on a regular basis.

Both of those issues can be taken care of if the rookies step up and provide a threat. From what I could see, it looks like other teams knew the threat Cooley was in the end zone and was blanketing him. Having another viable target in there would help things open up for Cooley.

As for ARE, I always thought he was better off as a slot receiver, but was forced into this role because of the lack of productive WRs. Maybe if Kelly can actually step up and play next year ARE can do that.

[CGSKINS]

I predict..................PAIN!!!!!

[Toe Jam]

I predict that Jim Zorn will finally figure out that our team colors are not Maroon and black.

[33]

Never heard that. I can understand one year of settling in for a WR but two?

Anyone who has played fantasy football is usually aware of the third year rule for WR's. It generally takes until a WR's third year to become productive in the NFL. Check it out for yourself, I think it would be research right up your alley. There are of course a few exceptions (R. Moss, A Boldin, L Fitzgerald, etc.)

I think you're wrong about the Ravens and Miami. I think they run hybrid systems. At San Diego, Cam ran the system system that Norv had installed, but he ran it with a dink and dunk approach ala the WCO. Pennington ran WCO style dink and dunk for the Jets. I don't know what he's running at Miami, but he certainly isn't going to go downfield much with that arm.

Dan Henning is currently in Miami and obviously it's a bit of a hybrid system, but it's a Coryell hybrid. As is whatever Cam Cameron is running in Baltimore. I'm just trying to say that there are a lot of Coryell guys around the league right now (3 of them had games this past weekend) so I think it's a bit odd to say it requires a dominant line.

It's hard to think of a SB winner who didn't have a great O-line with the exception of Walsh's 49ers.

[SkinsNumberOne]

It's hard to think of a SB winner who didn't have a great O-line with the exception of Walsh's 49ers.

I have heard this a lot, and while it's true that Walsh didn't have a great o-line, they were serviceable. They did a lot of "what was required" to the point of doing lame cut-blocks just to get those few seconds that were required for the system to work.

That policy didn't always work against some of the bigger defensive linemen, but when it did, it was effective as I recall. Effective and highly irritating.

[paintrain]

The evidence from 2008 suggests that:

= Z is a great believer in playing the ball control/field position game

= He likes big, physical receivers

= He believes in a small playbook run precisely

= He has said that he prefers a 60/40 pass-to-run ratio

= He wants the quick, short pass to move the chains

= He likes to spread the field, but doesn't worry about stretching it

= His calls go against the expected 50% of the time

= Z is gradually overcoming his bias against the shotgun

= He grew to like Betts more and more as a receiver at year's end

Prediction: Don't look for a dynamic, exciting, high-scoring offense. that's not what Zorn has in mind. He wants boring but effective. We will continue to see low scoring games, but we will dominate in TOP in our wins as we did this season.

Prediction: Don't look for more emphasis on the downfield passing game. Z will keep on doing what he's been doing. He'll just try to have his offense get better at moving the chains and converting in the redzone.

Prediction: Look for the big receivers to get far more playing time. Zorn will want bigger targets and stronger blocking. Santana's playing time will drop. We won't see him at all in the redzone.

Prediction: Betts will get more playing time as Zorn throws the ball 60% of the time. Portis will be saved mostly for power situations and to run down the clock. Reason: Z wants more passing, Betts excels at running the screens and swings typical of the WCO.

Prediction: Look for more shotgun spread on downs where passes are expected, but Z will run draws from this formation often. Reason: The change is a simple one to make to ease the pressure on the QB, but he doesn't want defenders to think they can just pin their ears back and charge when his QB is in the shotgun.

Prediction: Look for more passing on first downs. Reason: Eight and nine yard gains on first down "opens up the playbook." The bigger receivers will make this strategy more viable while we deemphasize the run game.

Prediction: Look for Zorn to order a more aggressive defensive approach. Reasons: The Williams/Blache passive defensive approach allows opponents to control the football if they're willing to take what they're given. That runs counter to Zorn's offensive ball control/field position strategy.

Prediction: Look for a positive turnover ratio in 2009. Our offense did very well protecting the football this season. The only reason we didn't have a positive ratio in 2008 is that our passive defensive approach, like playing soft on the corners, doesn't try to force them. Zorn is likely to change this in 2009.

I think we will be a better football team in 2009. If our schedule is no more difficult than it was this year, I foresee 10 or 11 wins.

Prediction: If he doesn't do a better job of adjusting and diversifying his playcalling he and Vinny will be unemployed very early into 2010.

[whatmeworry]

Gibbs adapted to the personnel he had. He didn't try to fit a round peg into a square hole.

[eljeasel]

I predict..................PAIN!!!!!

Prediction?

[eljeasel]

All in all I agree with you OF, but I disagree with one principle partly. You say the offense may not become an explosive offense. Maybe you are right. I absolutely agree he wants to control the ball, as we did early this year. But we would naturally have more explosiveness as familiarity in the system grows.

I agree that we will see more use of Big WRs, especially in the RZ. I would only expect Moss's PT to drop if either Thrash or ARE were to step up. I see what you are getting at I just think Z would keep Moss in along with the class of 08. I totally agree with you about less Moss in the RZ. Again, he could move him to the slot. Who knows.

Hard to say about Betts's PT. He wasnt playing much before he got hurt, and rather than lean on Betts he oddly put the rock in Big Mike's hands. Not to say you arent right, I just cant tell so early (esp with talk of bringing in help at the RB who knows we will be here next year)

All in all, another excellent post from Oldfan. CHEERS TO YOU!

[Shae]

I would like to think that Zorn will change his mind about stretching the field now that rookies Kelly and Thomas are going to have a healthy spring. Not to mention people want to see them perform NOW.

With a 6'2 guy and a 6'5 guy running down the field, I hope that stretches it or at least intimidates defenses a little bit.

[firefly4423]

Prediction: If he doesn't do a better job of adjusting and diversifying his playcalling he and Vinny will be unemployed very early into 2010.

I agree with this. He needs to adjust some key issues before advancing any further.

[veteranskinsfan]

I hope Zorn will use more shotgun next year. I think JC is more effective using it. Other teams used it this year with success. When the offensive line had trouble pass protecting it would have made sense for Coach Z to come up with other options.

[Thinking Skins]

I think its a safe bet JC is on the hot seat. Hopefully JC holds out b/c he wants a contract ext. and Colt gets the nod.

I think this is just a fan's opinion. I didn't get anything like this from Zorn's end of season presser. I think that Zorn is planning on staying with Campbell next season. And if anything I think that Collins is staying above Colt as the #2.

[ECU-ALUM]

Prediction: If he doesn't do a better job of adjusting and diversifying his playcalling he and Vinny will be unemployed very early into 2010.

Agreed about Zorn needing to adjust.

I like to believe that about Vinny as well....have my doubts though.

[jfriedenthal]

I still like Ramsey:D

You go with Ramsey... my gut is telling me Brad Johnson's coming back to DC after his stellar season with the Cowgirls. Lol

[GSF]

OF, yours is a good, well thought out post, but I disagree with several points:

- I remember Zorn referring to balance on offense several times early on. He was right at 50/50 run/pass when we were winning games early in the season, and I think that's where he would ideally like to be.

- There's no real evidence that Zorn doesn't believe in stretching the field. He took shots deep early in the season before pass protection broke down. I think Zorn would like very much to stretch the field more if he can protect his QB. I think what we saw this season was mostly due to his fear of getting his QB killed.

- I do not believe that Moss will get any less playing time, even in the redzone. I do agree though that Thomas and Kelly will get much more playing time. I think we'll see more 3 wr sets, especially in the redzone.

- The defense was actually very agressive for much of the season, playing tight man and blitzing frequently. The did play much more soft zone in the last few games, which I think they'll get away from again as you suggest.

- I agree with your point about time of posession, however I think Zorn would like to score more points than you suggest.

Thanks for the thought provoking post.

[Oldfan]

Cooley wasn't used at all in the red zone this year.

Obviously, we need to have more big receivers and a better redzone plan next season.

I think the entire offense should be designed to be effective in the endzone. If you can make it work there, it will work anywhere on the field.

[Oldfan]

I didn't respond to them individually, but I appreciate the supportive comments re: my thread.

[Oldfan]

GSF: - I remember Zorn referring to balance on offense several times early on. He was right at 50/50 run/pass when we were winning games early in the season, and I think that's where he would ideally like to be.

The 60/40 split wasn't my guess, GSF. This is what he told us he prefers, explaining that he was heavier on the run this year because the passing game was lagging.

- There's no real evidence that Zorn doesn't believe in stretching the field.

I saw evidence that he wants ball control which, by deduction, eliminates stretching the field in my way of thinking.

[Oldfan]

I hope Zorn will use more shotgun next year. I think JC is more effective using it. Other teams used it this year with success. When the offensive line had trouble pass protecting it would have made sense for Coach Z to come up with other options.

As a WCO advocate, Z is a believer in timing off the rythym of the dropback, but there is such overwhelming evidence now that the gun works that it can't be ignored. I see us eventually going where the Patriots are now. The shotgun spread is their base formation. Their QB goes under center when they have a lead to protect with runs.

[Pounds]

As a WCO advocate, Z is a believer in timing off the rythym of the dropback, but there is such overwhelming evidence now that the gun works that it can't be ignored. I see us eventually going where the Patriots are now. The shotgun spread is their base formation. Their QB goes under center when they have a lead to protect with runs.

I disagree with this; the shotgun will never be our base formation, it runs counter to everything the WCO is. Zorn has said countless times that he believes it kills the running game, true or not, and that he went shotgun primarily because Campbell voiced comfort with it. I don't see us using it more than we did in 2008. Zorn is descendant from Mike Holmgren, who employs the "purest" form of the WCO; very seldom do you see Hasselbeck in that formation, or Farve from his Green Bay days. This certainly isn't John Gruden were talking about here.

Additionally, many of the things you stated in your OP are essential tenants of the WCO and not just Zorn's personal philosophy. We will never truly have a vertical passing game, but more a horizontal one that characterizes the WCO and the 60/40 ratio is one that Walsh, himself, favored.

[SWFLSkins]

Think of Betts used like Westbrook. He's not as elusive in the open field, but he's just as good a receiver.

You don't want Ladell in a system that uses the RB often in protection, though.

Great thread OF, and good insight in general. I do however find some fault with the usage of Betts as you have elaborated on here. The problem is that the D's will know with Betts in that the likely hood of a long pass is out. They will key on the run or the short passes. Maybe that can be used to the Skins advantage but all too many times I think this past year teams saw things coming. I would like to see the two TE screens and various other plays out of that TE heavy formation. I think Betts handcuffs the offense to a degree. JMO.

[SWFLSkins]

I understand it's his first year coaching, and I do like Zorn, but I think he did the fans and team a disservice by not being ready at the beginning of the year.

------------

I think alot can be said of hindsight here. I think anyone expecting a guy who was hired to be the OC and then suddenly becomes the HC to perform flawlessly his first year has their expectations alittle too high. And what Coach in the NFL does not look back and see adjustments that were ill timed or not done at all?