Predictions: What to Look for From Jim Zorn in 2009

[Laron Burgundy]

2 years ago our d blitzed the most of any defense in the league. Not sure how it looks this year. The problem is that we are so ineffective at blitzing. I hope we make upgrading our DT's and increasing depth for our DE's a big priority this offseason otherwise that won't change next year.

Those insights on our offense are top notch though. We need our young receivers to improve so we're not so terrible in the redzone.

[33]

You've moved on without addressing some counterpoints that pertain to the thoughts you continue to espouse.

Never heard that. I can understand one year of settling in for a WR but two?

Anyone who has played fantasy football is usually aware of the third year rule for WR's. It generally takes until a WR's third year to become productive in the NFL. Check it out for yourself, I think it would be research right up your alley. There are of course a few exceptions (R. Moss, A Boldin, L Fitzgerald, etc.) You're welcome to name some WR's who were practically useless in their 1st year and then productive in their second if you can find them.

I think you're wrong about the Ravens and Miami. I think they run hybrid systems. At San Diego, Cam ran the system system that Norv had installed, but he ran it with a dink and dunk approach ala the WCO. Pennington ran WCO style dink and dunk for the Jets. I don't know what he's running at Miami, but he certainly isn't going to go downfield much with that arm.

Dan Henning is currently in Miami and obviously it's a bit of a hybrid system, but it's a Coryell hybrid. As is whatever Cam Cameron is running in Baltimore. I'm just trying to say that there are a lot of Coryell guys around the league right now (3 of them had games this past weekend) so I think it's a bit odd to say it requires a dominant line.

It's hard to think of a SB winner who didn't have a great O-line with the exception of Walsh's 49ers.

[Thinking Skins]

The 60/40 split wasn't my guess, GSF. This is what he told us he prefers, explaining that he was heavier on the run this year because the passing game was lagging.

When was this? Was it in one of his press conferences or the weekly show on 980 ot with George and Sunny or a post game interview?

I saw evidence that he wants ball control which, by deduction, eliminates stretching the field in my way of thinking.

Not really. If we take shots deep and can build a lead, then we can have ball control with Portis by running the ball with a lead. I do remember him saying that he likes to see Campbell kneel the ball to end the game.

[SirClintonPortis]

I think Zorn is flexible enough to give Campbell a few more intermediate and deep attempts IF the pass protection is improved next season and Portis stays healthy.

Campbell's attempts in the intermediate and deep range are lower than fellow QBs Hasslebeck(in 2007) or McNabb(in 2008). It could be coverage and/or protection that he had so few attempts, so Zorn should lobby for O-linemen and/or help get this year's rookie WRs and TE up to speed.

[Darth Tater]

The downfield passing game has been called OF. A lot. It's just not been executed.

Yes, we went downfield often especially in the early going (with the exception of the Giants game). The fact that Zorn called less downfield stuff in the second part of the season tends to lend credence to those who argue that our primary problem on offense was the line. I also remember several times when Campbell looked deep but ended up going short.

[Darth Tater]

The relative strengths of the O line to protect and run-block is just one factor of several to consider in the decision. Using the big receivers plus Betts in a spread with the shotgun to speed up the release seems to me to offer more benefits than pounding Portis for 16 games.

.

Jason looked quicker and more compact to me compared to past seasons. Zorn says the work isn't finished yet.

During last off season when Zorn indicated he was changing Campbell throwing mechanics, I really became worried.

[Thinking Skins]

Yes, we went downfield often especially in the early going (with the exception of the Giants game). The fact that Zorn called less downfield stuff in the second part of the season tends to lend credence to those who argue that our primary problem on offense was the line. I also remember several times when Campbell looked deep but ended up going short.

That's something that annoyed me this year. I know that he's much better at reading defenses than I am, but I just wished he would play a bit more freely so that we could just throw deep sometimes even if the guy had our guy covered....just try to throw it over the correct shoulder out of the guy's reach....thats how they complete deep passes against our CBs . We should do the same more often.

[Darth Tater]

2 years ago our d blitzed the most of any defense in the league. Not sure how it looks this year. The problem is that we are so ineffective at blitzing. I hope we make upgrading our DT's and increasing depth for our DE's a big priority this offseason otherwise that won't change next year.

Those insights on our offense are top notch though. We need our young receivers to improve so we're not so terrible in the redzone.

We were one of the most blitz-happy defenses this year.

[Oldfan]

I disagree with this; the shotgun will never be our base formation, it runs counter to everything the WCO is.

There was a time when the WCO proponents would not use the shotgun. There are none left now. Gruden was the last holdout.

In his last season at Green Bay Favre was given the shotgun spread to add the the WCO. It revived his career.

Jim Zorn wants to win. He'll do what it takes.

[Oldfan]

Anyone who has played fantasy football is usually aware of the third year rule for WR's.

I'm not aware of any research to back this up. Logically, there's no basis for that much time. It's not rocket science.

I'm just trying to say that there are a lot of Coryell guys around the league right now (3 of them had games this past weekend) so I think it's a bit odd to say it requires a dominant line.

The Coryell vertical passing game relies on the effectiveness of play-action and lots of seven step drops. All that takes time to develop and that's all we need to know to figure this out. O lineman have to hold their blocks longer.

Cam Cameron has a Coryell background, but he's not running a Coryell passing game. He's using a lot of five step drops and shotgun.

[33]

I'm not aware of any research to back this up. Logically, there's no basis for that much time. It's not rocket science.

If you bother to take the time to look into this, you will find that not many WR's blossom in their second season. Or you can just continue to say it defies logic and act like it's a certainty that Thomas and Kelly will be productive next season with even less basis for logic.

The Coryell vertical passing game relies on the effectiveness of play-action and lots of seven step drops. All that takes time to develop and that's all we need to know to figure this out. O lineman have to hold their blocks longer.

I think this is oversimplification. A great O-line tends to mean you will have better chance than most at having a good team no matter what system you run. Look at how poorly the WCO's have done recently without decent O-lines (GB, TB, Seattle) and how much more productive they have been once addressed.

[skinsfan51]

Breaking 30 points in a handful of games next year would be great! There can be no doubt that our main issues are on offense.

[SkinsOrlando]

I look for him to be fired by week 6 when were 1-5.

[skinsfan51]

I look for him to be fired by week 6 when were 1-5.

I think Snyder is smarter than that. I expect him to give Zorn the entire 2009 season to demonstrate a clear upturn in this team. If not, then you can expect Danny to get googly-eyes for either Cower or Shannahan for 2010 and whoever that is will be the highest paid coach in NFL history.

[SkinsOrlando]

I think Snyder is smarter than that. I expect him to give Zorn the entire 2009 season to demonstrate a clear upturn in this team. If not, then you can expect Danny to get googly-eyes for either Cower or Shannahan for 2010 and whoever that is will be the highest paid coach in NFL history.

I think if Zorn loses this team after a horrendous start early which I expect with the disaster we played the last 8, that Zorn goes and Balche gets the interim job.

[Oldfan]

If you bother to take the time to look into this, you will find that not many WR's blossom in their second season. Or you can just continue to say it defies logic and act like it's a certainty that Thomas and Kelly will be productive next season with even less basis for logic.

I made a prediction based on evidence. No one said anything about certainty. You made a claim that seems illogical to me, but you think I should do the research to support it?

I think this is oversimplification. A great O-line tends to mean you will have better chance than most at having a good team no matter what system you run.

That's not the point. The WCO was designed with quick, short passes to make it easier for a mediocre O line to give protection since the linemen don't have to hold their blocks for long. The Coryell scheme was not designed with that in mind. That's really all the information we need to know.

[33]

I made a prediction based on evidence. No one said anything about certainty. You made a claim that seems illogical to me, but you think I should do the research to support it?

I was merely thinking you would enjoy looking into it. I have no problem passing some info along.

Here's a little bit of football trivia: What do Harold Carmichael, Stanley Morgan, Terrell Owens, Rod Smith, Santana Moss, Steve Smith and Javon Walker have in common? Aside from the obvious answer (yes each of these athletes was an NFL wide receiver), all of them recorded statistical breakouts in their third season at the pro level.

This trend has been viable for several decades, from the likes of Homer Jones and Charley Taylor in the 1960s, Carmichael and Steve Largent in the 1970s, Ricky Sanders and Steve Watson in the 1980s, Owens and Rod Smith in the 1990s, and Moss, Steve Smith and Walker in the current era. The trend was also viable in 2006 as the likes of Bernard Berrian, Jerricho Cotchery, Lee Evans, Devery Henderson and Roy Williams all recorded career statistical performances in their third NFL season.

http://www.nfl.com/fantasy/story?id=09000d5d8002531c&template=without-video&confirm=true

There is honestly a wealth of information discussing this theory on the internet. I could add; Albert Connell, Antonio Freeman, Andre Rison, Bobby Engram, Carl Pickens, Curtis Conway, Derick Alexander, Eric Moulds, Jake Reed, Keyshawn Johnson, & Muhsin Muhammad to those listed above as guys that didn't develop statistically until year 3.

I'd be willing to say that there is enough evidence to say that the 3rd year may seem slightly arbitrary, but there appears to be overwhelming evidence that it takes most WR's multiple years before they have their first statistically solid season.

That's not the point. The WCO was designed with quick, short passes to make it easier for a mediocre O line to give protection since the linemen don't have to hold their blocks for long. The Coryell scheme was not designed with that in mind. That's really all the information we need to know.

I'm not debating the actual schemes, I understand what they ask of a QB and O-line. You made a comment about the Coryell system needing a dominant line, and I'm merely saying it was an over-simplification.

[Oldfan]

I was merely thinking you would enjoy looking into it. I have no problem passing some info along.

Thanks for your effort but this article makes more sense to me:

There's an old theory going around the fantasy football world, one that claims that a wide receiver's breakout campaign tends to come in his third year in the league. It's tossed around rather casually and is widely accepted. But there's just one little problem with it...

It's simply not true.

Leave it to people in the fantasy realm to treat an oft-discussed theory as gospel, without taking the time to actually check the facts.

http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/football/ffl/story?page=nfldk2k83rdyrWR

[duenni]

prediction: don't look for a dynamic, exciting, high-scoring offense. that's not what zorn has in mind. He wants boring but effective. We will continue to see low scoring games, but we will dominate in top in our wins as we did this season.

so you call 16.6 ppg effective?? We are doomed

[JuicyJ]

Thomas is the same size as the rest of the guys (Santana, El, Thrash)

Devin Thomas is 6'2"......Moss and Randel El are 5'10"

(EDIT: Just noticed that you corrected yourself....but still, haha)

[Oldfan]

so you call 16.6 ppg effective?? We are doomed

I said that Zorn WANTS boring but effective and you came up with that?

[33]

Thanks for your effort but this article makes more sense to me:

http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/football/ffl/story?page=nfldk2k83rdyrWR

That's a pretty flawed study if you look into it. For starters taking only the top 50 WR's automatically skews the entire study. Furthermore, he goes on to say, "It's the second-year receivers who experienced the most notable bump of all, 47.7 percent in receptions, 60.4 percent in receiving yards and 74.8 percent in receiving touchdowns," which is a completely bogus argument when you actually look at the stats and realize that most WR's have very low numbers to begin with in their first year.

Check out this study with accompanying stats. The study says the 3rd year theory is a bit arbitrary, stating that WR's tend to increase production year by year which isn't shocking, however check out the stats at the bottom to see hard evidence of WR production in terms of years in the league.

http://www.draftguide.com/articles/2000/MikeMurray-007012000.htm

My entire point to bringing all this up in the first place is that history doesn't exactly point to Thomas and/or Kelly producing very much in their second seasons. Obviously, that isn't always correct, but in for the most part players that break out in year two go on to be top performers.

[bconngemini]

Portis needs some help, and some quality help, its brutal for him playing this style.

[Oldfan]

That's a pretty flawed study if you look into it. For starters taking only the top 50 WR's automatically skews the entire study. Furthermore, he goes on to say, "It's the second-year receivers who experienced the most notable bump of all, 47.7 percent in receptions, 60.4 percent in receiving yards and 74.8 percent in receiving touchdowns," which is a completely bogus argument when you actually look at the stats and realize that most WR's have very low numbers to begin with in their first year.

Check out this study with accompanying stats. The study says the 3rd year theory is a bit arbitrary, stating that WR's tend to increase production year by year which isn't shocking, however check out the stats at the bottom to see hard evidence of WR production in terms of years in the league.

http://www.draftguide.com/articles/2000/MikeMurray-007012000.htm

My entire point to bringing all this up in the first place is that history doesn't not exactly point to Thomas and/or Kelly producing very much in their second seasons. Obviously, that isn't always correct, but in those cases the players tend to end up being superstars.

I have a good math aptitude which automatically leads to a distrust of any study. Designing a sound approach to measure something like this is a very difficult problem. So, I rely on common sense. Each receiver is a special case.

Charley Taylor, one of the WRs in your study, came into the NFL as a RB and played there for most of his first year. He learned to play the WR at the NFL level. One would not expect him to produce until his third year whereas Kelly's game was polished by a top flight college program. Albert Connell, another Redskin in your study, barely hung on to a roster spot as a fourth-round pick. His potential was about half that of Devin Thomas. The production he gave us in his third year was a surprise. Not much was expected of him.

[Oldfan]

Portis needs some help, and some quality help, its brutal for him playing this style.

From Post #1:

Prediction: Betts will get more playing time as Zorn throws the ball 60% of the time. Portis will be saved mostly for power situations and to run down the clock. Reason: Z wants more passing, Betts excels at running the screens and swings typical of the WCO.