An Examination of Rookie WRs (Devin Thomas blurb)

[Thinking Skins]

http://fftoday.com/articles/marcoccio/08_young_targets.htm

Salvatore Marcoccio III

Young Targets

An Examination of Rookie WRs

6/24/08

In each of the last 10 seasons at least one wide receiver that was capable of starting for your fantasy football team has emerged. In most of those seasons more than one was highly productive.¹ Below is a chart showing all rookie wide receivers from the past 10 years that amassed at least 700 receiving yards (with the exception of Chris Henry and Braylon Edwards who were the biggest impact rookies in 2005 but finished below 700 yards). While 700 yards could be considered an arbitrary total, it should fairly accurately reflect the yardage minimum one would expect from a fantasy football starter at the wide receiver position. The fantasy point totals below are based on six point touchdowns, a point per ten yards, and a point per reception.

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¹2005 was an exception where Chris Henry and Braylon Edwards were the two highest performing rookie WRs and were spot starters at best, although Henry did manage 6 trips to the end zone.

Rookie WRs: 700 Yds +

Player - (Rec Yds, Rec TDs)

Randy Moss - (1313, 17)

Anquan Boldin - (1377, 8)

Michael Clayton - (1193, 7)

Marques Colston - (1038, 8)

Kevin Johnson - (986, 8)

Dwayne Bowe - (995, 5)

Lee Evans - (843, 9)

Larry Fitzgerald - (780, 8)

Roy Williams - (817, 8)

Chris Chambers - (883, 7)

Antonio Bryant - (883, 7)

Torry Holt - (788, 6)

Troy Edwards - (714, 5)

Darrell Jackson - (713, 6)

Andre Johnson - (733, 6)

Keary Colbert - (754, 5)

Calvin Johnson - (756, 4)

Rod Gardner - (741, 4)

Chris Henry - (422, 6)

Braylon Edwards - (512, 3)

I don’t think the fact that Randy Moss sits atop this list would come as a surprise to anyone. His rookie year was legendary, but the fact that 18 rookie wide receivers have amassed over 700 yards – with many eclipsing or approaching 1,000 yards and 15 have grabbed at least six touchdowns - in the last ten seasons puts to rest the notion that rookie wide receivers have no rightful place on your fantasy football roster. Of course picking the right rookie is the key factor. Far and away, most rookies don’t even sniff these totals, so let’s look at some factors that may help one find a rookie gem on draft day.

Opportunity: Obviously a rookie needs to receive significant time on the field as a prerequisite for putting up stats that lead to fantasy points. A young wide receiver that is going to sit behind veterans will not help your squad. There’s no need to really explore this factor much further, since it’s quite apparent all who appear on the list above must have received an opportunity to see playing time as first year players due to either superior talent or injury to a teammate.

Size: There are virtually no mighty mites on this list with Lee Evans being the shortest player at 5’10” and Torry Holt being the lightest player at 190 pounds. In fact all but four of these successful rookies are at least six feet tall (and twelve are 6’2” or taller) and all but five are at least 200 pounds. Even more compelling is that three of the top four most successful rookie wide receivers of the last ten years - all of which had “stud” fantasy seasons - are 6’4” tall (Randy Moss, Marques Colston and Michael Clayton) and while Anquan Boldin is only 6’1” he weighs in at a sturdy 217 pounds. So it seems, contrary to what some of your girlfriends may say politely, size DOES matter (at least when it comes to evaluating successful rookie wide receivers).

Draft Position: All but three wide receivers on the above list were drafted in the first two rounds of their respective NFL drafts with two of those remaining three, Darrell Jackson and Chris Henry, only falling to round three. Only Marques Colston was a second day pick (amazingly he lasted until round seven). Looking further, 12 of the 20 successful rookie wide receivers listed above were first round picks. One can assume draft position is an important determining factor for two reasons – really the two reasons that any player is a success – a combination of talent and opportunity. A first or second round draft pick should be more talented than a late round pick (in theory at least) and it logically follows that a player chosen with a premium pick will more likely be given an opportunity to play since they are talented, being paid well and in most cases likely chosen with a high pick because they were a need position for their new team.

QB: These rookie producers must have all had Hall of Fame quarterbacks tossing the rock to them as young bucks right? Guess again. The following uninspiring QBs were behind most of these breakout rookie campaigns:

Jeff Blake

Josh McCown

Brian Griese

Tim Couch

Damon Huard/Brodie Croyle

Joey Harrington

Jay Fiedler

Kordell Stewart/Mike Tomczak

David Carr

Tony Banks

Trent Dilfer/Charlie Frye

Jon Kitna

The only better than average quarterbacks that were responsible for helping the wide receivers on the above list were Jake Delhomme, Carson Palmer, Drew Bledsoe, and Randall Cunningham and both Bledsoe and Cunningham were past their primes at the time. Does this mean that one should look for rookie wide receivers that are matched up with poor quarterbacks when attempting to guess which rookie wide receiver will be worth a spot on your redraft team? Of course not. However, it should tell you not to automatically dismiss a targeted rookie just because he will have a “no name” QB behind center.

...

So which rookie wide receivers fit into the above criteria? Who should a fantasy owner target in 2008? Bear in mind than not one wide receiver was deemed worthy enough to be drafted in round one, so this could be a down year, but there were certainly some talented wide receivers that went off the board in rounds two and three. Below are my top five rookie wide receivers that I feel are most likely to break-out and put up fantasy numbers worthy of starting in 2008.

Devin Thomas (6’2”, 215): Thomas was drafted in round two by the Washington Redskins, a team that will be converting to a West Coast Offense and started two undersized wide-outs (Santana Moss and Antwaan Randle El) last season. Randle El is better suited to play in the slot so Thomas is very likely to crack the starting line-up in his rookie season. Thomas has a nifty combination of size and speed and is a terrific runner after the catch – an important part of the WCO. It would not shock me if he ends up leading the Redskins in receptions, yards and touchdowns at season’s end.

[DWinzit]

700 yards in 2008 would be a wonderful start to long and successful career in Washington for Mr. Thomas!!!:cool:

[Morneblade]

After all that, he picks the guy that is having trouble running routes and is slotted behind Moss, not ARE (Kelly).

[Thinking Skins]

This article talks mainly about fantasy, but does a nice analysis of the rookie WRs who have had impact seasons, and actually selected Devin Thomas to be one of those possible impacts. I do wonder why Kelly wasn't on that list of potential stars this year.

I bring this up as a contrast to the people who say things like "it takes a WR 3 years to develop into the pro game". I was just wondering how often WRs made an impact in their rookie season. So this is a nice bit of data to look at. I do think that the fact that Kelly and Thomas may be fighting one another for playing time could mean that they combine for 1000 yards instead just saying one getting 700+ (at least thats what I hope for).

[Thinking Skins]

After all that, he picks the guy that is having trouble running routes and is slotted behind Moss, not ARE (Kelly).

yeah, I kinda figured that he just picked Thomas based on him being the first one of our WRs taken, and not really having info on Thomas being told to train for the flanker spot and not the split end. If anything, I think Kelly is more prime for a breakout rookie season beacuse he's being groomed for the split end spot, which means he may be starting much sooner than Thomas. But then again, Thomas is behind Moss who is constantly injured. If Moss goes down with injuries this year, he may not get his spot back. He may actually wind up being in the slot with Thomas and Kelly starting.

[skinfan2k]

One of our WR will make a major contribution. The reason why we lacked a big physical target the past couple of years and our last one had 6 Tds in a short stint here. His name was McCants. We also have multiple rookies trying to earn jobs and there will be plenty of balls to go around

[Morneblade]

True, but Thomas is also struggling to run routes. It's lilely if Moss goes down you're liable to see Thrash out there first over Thomas. I think Kelly is the guy that will have more of an impact, but I dont see either really having a large impact this year. They will have to unseat the guys in front of them first.

[scskin]

Moss is more than likely to play the X receiver or split end this year. Kelly and Thomas have been training at Z{flanker} from my reading.

http://realredskins.com/2008/06/santana-mossx-man.html

[Thinking Skins]

True, but Thomas is also struggling to run routes. It's lilely if Moss goes down you're liable to see Thrash out there first over Thomas. I think Kelly is the guy that will have more of an impact, but I dont see either really having a large impact this year. They will have to unseat the guys in front of them first.

There's also the concern about Kelly's knee injury, and how serious it is. I stand by my confidence that they can produce good numbers as a duo, and hopefully Kelly can put up Bowe type numbers as a rookie, but I wouldn't be mad if Thomas did this.

[elkabong82]

This is another reason why training camp and preseason are going to be very interesting this offseason.

Right now, it will probably be Moss on the far left at split end, ARE just to the left in the slot, and then Thrash at the far right in the flanker spot (experience, only WR with swerious time in a WCO before, lots of praise from Zorn).

However, Mix, Kelly, or Thomas is going to be the starting flanker before the season is up, and if one of them really impresses they could be starting at the beginning of the season. I am inclined to think Kelly will be the other flanker given his size and separation ability. I believe Thomas will wind up backing up Moss in the split end, to utilize his speed. That leaves Mix in the slot backing up ARE, which is perfect because a WCO can use either a speedster or a big guy in the slot to create mismatches. Of course this is all me speculating, but it is where I see things right now.

[The Fourth King]

Please, Devin Thomas would be in the hall of fame in 5 years if he was half the player Rod Gardner was.

[KCJDLJ]

This is another reason why training camp and preseason are going to be very interesting this offseason.

Right now, it will probably be Moss on the far left at split end, ARE just to the left in the slot, and then Thrash at the far right in the flanker spot (experience, only WR with swerious time in a WCO before, lots of praise from Zorn).

However, Mix, Kelly, or Thomas is going to be the starting flanker before the season is up, and if one of them really impresses they could be starting at the beginning of the season. I am inclined to think Kelly will be the other flanker given his size and separation ability. I believe Thomas will wind up backing up Moss in the split end, to utilize his speed. That leaves Mix in the slot backing up ARE, which is perfect because a WCO can use either a speedster or a big guy in the slot to create mismatches. Of course this is all me speculating, but it is where I see things right now.

You're assuming that Mix will make the team. I don't think he will. Thrash will be the fifth receiver.

[Jino]

You're assuming that Mix will make the team. I don't think he will. Thrash will be the fifth receiver.

You're assuming that we will only carry five receivers. I think Zorn will carry 6 WRs on the roster. It's only logical bc we will be running 4 WR formations very often. I think Zorn likes to run 3-4 receiver formations for the majority of his offense, a stark contrast to the 2Back 1TE 2WR standard we were used to under the Great Joe Gibbs.

[pvkeeper19]

I think Kelly is the better pro prospect. Devin Thomas is the more athletic player, but if anything, I'd expect Kelly to have a bigger rookie year. He is a more polished receiver and has a better chance to have an immediate impact, IMO.

[Oldskool]

I disagree with the assumption that Thomas will crack the lineup as a rookie unless there is an injury to Moss or ARE.

ARE is the slot receiver and Moss is the flanker. If any of the 3 - 2nd round picks will start it will be Kelly at Split End.

[Pedro]

Far and away, most rookies don’t even sniff these totals, so let’s look at some factors that may help one find a rookie gem on draft day.

Note the OP states most don't get close to decent production in their first season and then goes on to talk about draft day. Real football has already had draft day. Fantasy football hasn't. It's in the name.

If Kelly has a great season and Thomas has a great season who would have the better numbers? Rookie gem in fantasy terms is a low round fantasy pick that produces great numbers.

Q.

Who should a fantasy owner target in 2008?

A.

Thomas exploded his Junior year with 79 catches, 1260 yards, and 8 touchdowns

(from Wikipedia)

or

In his senior season he (Kelly) ranked second on the Sooners, grabbing 49 passes for 821 yards (16.8-yard average) and nine touchdowns.

(from Wikipedia)

It's in the name - Fantasy Football lol.

[The Caretaker]

People seem to forget How dangerous Santana moss can be when healthy, dont get me wrong, I am hoping Devin Thomas and Malcolm kelly turn out to be stars, but, They are already writing Santana moss off, and his YAC is no pushover.

[REEGSKINS]

i would like to eventually see thomas and kelly on the outside and moss int he slot but i know that might be 2 years down the road cause of the inexperience.

[Koolblue13]

I am so glad we finally have the weapons we need to have a successful offense. What a relief.

We should be throwing more and have the depth to do it. That means a healthier O line and running backs.

2 and 3 TE sets in goal line situations.

5 wide sets will be possible now.

Healthy Portis, Thomas, Jansen.

More options for JC.

All that added to a perennial top 10 defense and special team unit.

I certainly hope Zorn has been chomping at the bit working on an offense nobody has seen yet, over the last 10 years of coaching QBs.

HTTR! I can't wait until kick off.

[scruffylookin]

Assuming they are healthy, I fully expect either Thomas or Kelly to gain 700 plus yards this season because I don't expect ARE to hold on to the starting spot.

Unless they are both busts or hurt, one of them will start opposite Santana Moss.

[elkabong82]

You're assuming that Mix will make the team. I don't think he will. Thrash will be the fifth receiver.

You're assuming we won't keep more than 5 WRs on the roster, which is asinine for a WCO. We'll have 6 WRs, and Mix will be the last one.

[Thinking Skins]

You're assuming we won't keep more than 5 WRs on the roster, which is asinine for a WCO. We'll have 6 WRs, and Mix will be the last one.

Not unless Billy McMullen beats him out.

[skins84]

watch out for devin thomas, he's a faster version of Anquan Boldin. (not as tough, but who is?)

[Thinking Skins]

You're assuming we won't keep more than 5 WRs on the roster, which is asinine for a WCO. We'll have 6 WRs, and Mix will be the last one.

I just realized that Mix also made a guy fumble against the Vikings. If he can do that more often, he may even make Thrash expendable, allowing us to keep Mix and McMullen.

[RandyHolt]

After all that, he picks the guy that is having trouble running routes and is slotted behind Moss, not ARE (Kelly).

Perhaps he see's Moss being quietly moved to the more traditional role of a number 2, as I do myself. Ignoring West Coast terminology of course. We need some size & girth at WR and quick - a move the chains guy. Zorn is no fool I think I remember him mentioning Moss is going to be taking on some deeper patterns that last year. He better, otherwise our passing offense will be anemic for yet another year. He certainly cant run any shorter routes than he did almost all of last year. Moss reminds me of Clark, not Monk.