skinsfannyc76 Posted June 3, 2008 Share Posted June 3, 2008 No. 1 WRs becoming endangered species by John Clayton I did a search and didn't see this posted anywhere. See below for link (article briefly mentions 'Skins and Moss). What are your thoughts on this? I was hoping Clayton would talk a little about the 'Skins drafting Thomas and Kelly, but either way, the article just seems to confirm that, as many of us know, the probability of drafting a great receiver in the early rounds is not an exact science... http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/columns/story?columnist=clayton_john&id=3422209 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoGood28 Posted June 3, 2008 Share Posted June 3, 2008 the probability of drafting a great receiver in the early rounds is not an exact science... I didn't read the article, but that is why we drafted two instead of one: to double our "chances" of finding a hit. And to be honest, we have equal probability that they could both be hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dfbovey Posted June 3, 2008 Share Posted June 3, 2008 It's definitely not an exact science, and for that reason I thought it was smart to take two. Gives them a better chance of hitting the target and finding that go to guy that the team has been missing. And if both of them work out it'll be bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoGood28 Posted June 3, 2008 Share Posted June 3, 2008 It's definitely not an exact science, and for that reason I thought it was smart to take two. Gives them a better chance of hitting the target and finding that go to guy that the team has been missing. And if both of them work out it'll be bonus. Jinx. Now you can't post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gazpar Posted June 3, 2008 Share Posted June 3, 2008 The definition of a "#1 WR" has changed in the last several years. It used to be just a solid skill-set to qualify. However, in the modern game, you need to have the skills, and you also have to be a leader, play the media, and keep yourself out of trouble. Look at Henry.. he has great speed, excellent hands, fantastic awareness, but cant stay out of trouble, and does not manage the media. Thats why hes looking for a job. The only exception to this may be TO, and even he is doing better with the media. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earl Posted June 3, 2008 Share Posted June 3, 2008 maybe its because of the combine. we are looking too hard at 40's and height. So maybe the next jerry rice doesn't get drafted because he's too slow running for a stop watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boy1Der Posted June 3, 2008 Share Posted June 3, 2008 They said underclassman wr don't seem to work out well i guess the pick or kelly looks better. I honestly believe that the worst case scenario is that one of them turns into a Roy Williams or a Fitzgerald because they were both rated as being top 5 at wr. They will compete to be the best from day 1 and they have extra incentive because they were projected to go higher and it didn't happen they don't wan to live off of that 2nd round contract. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoRnAndRaiSedSkinsFan Posted June 3, 2008 Share Posted June 3, 2008 Good article, some of the things he said makes me think our young receivers might turn out pretty well. If you look at the three things Clayton mentioned, our young WRs have some of them. From what i've heard and read, it seems both, esp Thomas, are explosive off of the ball. Both are big guys, so I'm sure they'll be able to bump some CBs out of position. Another thing Clayton said was being a special player either in making spectacular catches or running after the catch. Devin Thomas shows exceptional ability to get yards after the catch, while Kelly has great hands, and he can run a little after the catch as well. Both will have to work on route running and understanding defenses as most young WRs do. I'm hoping the abilites both possess help them get off to a good start. I'm excited because teams won't be able to just double team Moss anymore all game long. I can't wait to see these guys really open things up for each other and their teammates. It sounds like Thomas is a really hard worker and student of the game. I heard he's been impressive so far and might even earn a starting role. After JG left, and GW was not hired as the new HC, I never thought I'd be this excited for this upcomming season. Go Skins!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mistertim Posted June 3, 2008 Share Posted June 3, 2008 I didn't read the article, but that is why we drafted two instead of one: to double our "chances" of finding a hit. And to be honest, we have equal probability that they could both be hits. Bingo. AND...we got them both in the 2nd round so we won't have to give up insane amounts of money to guys who have proven nothing yet in the NFL. I think they both have the talent to at least be good if not great WRs as long as they work hard, which they seem to be doing. If they both work out, great. We eventually sign them to bigger long term contracts; if not, not the end of the world since we didn't pay top dollar for them so we let them go. If one becomes a stud and another mediocre...same thing applies. Good draft by the Skins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redskins2473 Posted June 3, 2008 Share Posted June 3, 2008 Drafting a receiver is not an exact science in any round but the risk is certainly higher in the 1st from a financial perspective. The only negative with drafting three receivers early is that they've already invested heavily in the position. With only so many balls to go around in a game, somebody is going to come up short. May not be an issue down the road since Moss and Randle El are not spring chickens and have not proven to be durable in Skins uniforms but there is definitely a log jam this year. It will be interesting to see which rook emerges as a favorite target. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MartinC Posted June 3, 2008 Share Posted June 3, 2008 The definition of a "#1 WR" has changed in the last several years.It used to be just a solid skill-set to qualify. However, in the modern game, you need to have the skills, and you also have to be a leader, play the media, and keep yourself out of trouble. . If that is the definition there are just about no No.1 wideouts is the NFL - most of those who would qualify under the skill set and production criteria are head cases - Chad Johnson, TO, Randy Moss - heck even Marvin Harrision it seems ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger187126 Posted June 3, 2008 Share Posted June 3, 2008 I read this article and I immediately wanted to call a friend of mine. We were at the O's game on Friday and with that many innings of scoreless baseball we decided to talk about some football. I said that there is this insane lack of #1 receivers and entire divisions are lacking of a true stud #1 receiver. The NFC North or AFC West. I know they have a main guy, but they don't have that #1 playmaker. It seems that the teams that win have a collection of decent guys on the field who all play a major role in the passing game rather than a #1 guy who takes a double and pressure off of other guys so they can get the ball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lombardi's_kid_brother Posted June 3, 2008 Share Posted June 3, 2008 What's funny. In three years, there will be a dozen great receivers who came out of of the first round, and every team will say "We need to get a receiver in the first round. That's the key to winning." Remember when first round QBs were all busts? Tom Brady. That's what you need. Heck, even Trent Dilfer can win a Super Bowl. Where did Kurt Warner come from, after all? Now every team is going to be looking for a Roethlisberger or a Manning or, um, a Manning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnyderMustGo Posted June 3, 2008 Share Posted June 3, 2008 TI honestly believe that the worst case scenario is that one of them turns into a Roy Williams or a Fitzgerald That's the worst case scenario, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skindogger47 Posted June 3, 2008 Share Posted June 3, 2008 That's the worst case scenario, eh? What's the best case scenario? Both break all of Jerry Rice's records? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chanhillbilly Posted June 3, 2008 Share Posted June 3, 2008 The only exception to this may be TO, and even he is doing better with the media. I caught a few min of TO on Opie and Anthony last week. As much as I hate to say it. He didn't sound like the usual $hitbag that he is. He almost sounded... normal??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
36HAMMER Posted June 3, 2008 Share Posted June 3, 2008 you guys think campbell is better than cutler ? the nfl seems ready to proclaim cutler as the next great qb. i like campbell more, soo much more smoother, has all that you need just needs to be comfortable with his offense that and his oline stay healthy. man, just one year at least i pray that this oline could stay together with no injury. to see what they can do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pjfootballer Posted June 3, 2008 Share Posted June 3, 2008 If Thomas catches 40 balls and Kelly catches 35, I think they will have had successful seasons. Moss should catch 70 and ARE 60 in the offense. throw in Cooley at 60 and Davis at 30. If this happens, we'll have a pretty good offense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkinsHokieFan Posted June 3, 2008 Share Posted June 3, 2008 If Thomas catches 40 balls and Kelly catches 35, I think they will have had successful seasons. Moss should catch 70 and ARE 60 in the offense. throw in Cooley at 60 and Davis at 30. If this happens, we'll have a pretty good offense. If that happens we are going to the Super Bowl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darth Tater Posted June 3, 2008 Share Posted June 3, 2008 If that happens we are going to the Super Bowl If that happens, we probably aren't even going to the playoffs as that is about 600 or more pass attempts. Even under Reid, the Eagles have thrown only more than 600 times and that was in one of Reid's worst seasons. Since Brady has been New England's main main, the only time the Patriots missed the playoffs was the time they threw more than 600 times, and the last time they won the SB, they ran more than they threw. The year that Seattle reached the SB, they ran much more than they passed. The Colts under Manning have never thrown over 600 times. Several QBs have thrown it more than 600 times in a season but mostly for a mediocre or bad team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger187126 Posted June 3, 2008 Share Posted June 3, 2008 If that happens, we probably aren't even going to the playoffs as that is about 600 or more pass attempts. Even under Reid, the Eagles have thrown only more than 600 times and that was in one of Reid's worst seasons. Since Brady has been New England's main main, the only time the Patriots missed the playoffs was the time they threw more than 600 times, and the last time they won the SB, they ran more than they threw. The year that Seattle reached the SB, they ran much more than they passed. The Colts under Manning have never thrown over 600 times. Several QBs have thrown it more than 600 times in a season but mostly for a mediocre or bad team. Those aren't throws, those are completions. If we complete over 600 passes we're definitely doing something especially when you consider the average length of a pass receptions compared to the average length of a run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MartinC Posted June 4, 2008 Share Posted June 4, 2008 Those aren't throws, those are completions. If we complete over 600 passes we're definitely doing something especially when you consider the average length of a pass receptions compared to the average length of a run. If we complete 600 passes :doh: To complete 600 passes at say a 60% completion rate we would need to have 1,000 attempts. Thats over 62 attempts per game. Think thats even remotely possible let alone desirable? To get circa 300 receptions you need about 500 attempts which is still over 30 a game which is more than would be ideal. I would say we want Campbell to be averaging about 25 drop backs a game if we are being succesful - at a 60% completion rate thats 240 receptions. Say 60+ to both Moss and Cooley and 50 to ARE gives you 170. Add in say 30 to Portis (ans I think he will get more than that) and thats gives you about 40 catches to go around between Thomas, Kelly and Davis. Only way Thomas breaks 40 catches is if he beats out ARE for the starting role in which case he and ARE might combine for say 70 catches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shotgunner Posted June 4, 2008 Share Posted June 4, 2008 I think we scored with our 2 wr's in the second. It will take 2-3 yrs to fully see what we have , but the foundation is here and now maybe Moss will step up like in 05. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Muzzah Posted June 4, 2008 Share Posted June 4, 2008 One problem I see with this is the fact that most of these teams that have been going gung ho on receivers the past couple of years neglect their offensive line. Cant consistently get a passing game going if your QB is on the floor or being hurried every other play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taylor4Life Posted June 4, 2008 Share Posted June 4, 2008 Only way Thomas breaks 40 catches is if he beats out ARE for the starting role in which case he and ARE might combine for say 70 catches. I thought that I had heard somewhere that Thomas will start as the #2 and that ARE will be moving to the slot in 3 wide out sets.:whoknows: I don't think that means, however, that ARE won't see much action. Zorn will probably throw in a lot of 3-4 wideout sets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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