PleaseBlitz

Election 2018 Thread (Blue Wave in Progress)

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Daily reminder that we need retirement ages, because modern science has extended our ability to live, not our ability to function.

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https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-democrats-wave-could-turn-into-a-flood/

 

Quote

A new CNN survey released this week showed Democrats leading Republicans by an astounding 56 percent to 38 percent on the generic congressional ballot. That’s an 18 percentage point lead among registered voters — a record-breaking result. No other survey taken in November or December in the year before a midterm has found the majority party in the House down by that much since at least the 1938 cycle (as far back as I have data).

And while the CNN poll is a bit of an outlier, the Democratic advantage in the FiveThirtyEight generic ballot aggregate is up to about 12 points, 49.6 percent to 37.4 percent. That average, like the CNN poll, also shows Republicans in worse shape right now than any other majority party at this point in the midterm cycle1 since at least the 1938 election.

 

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Just now, Predicto said:

 

 

So, taking gerrymandering into account, we can expect the GOP to retain a House majority of about 25-30 seats.  :( 

 

Youre such a wet blanket. :)

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I wish they would concentrate on what Trump and the Republicans have done to our country this year. Tell people what this destruction means for We the People.

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I would prefer that Dempcrats not impeach Trump unless Mueller just absolutely nails him to the wall and the Senate would realistically oust him. Trump is going to deliver them the House in 18, then the Senate and White House in 2020. LET HIM. 

 

I dont think the Dems can get the Senate in 18, the map is just too bad for them. In 2020 however, the it looks like 22 R seats will be up versus only 11 Dem seats. 

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5 hours ago, LadySkinsFan said:

I wish they would concentrate on what Trump and the Republicans have done to our country this year. Tell people what this destruction means for We the People.

 

Strongly agree with you.  For lots of reasons.  

 

1)  "We must demand that all Dems commit to impeachment, before the election" is terrible politics.  Frankly "we promise to stop the attempts to smear the FBI into shutting down an investigation, and let's see what the investigation finds, and then decide" is a much better look.  

 

2)  I suspect that very few voters are going to trek to the poils and pull the D lever because the D's promised to impeach Trump.  Frankly, I'd bet that a good chunk of voters are sick of the smears and such, already.  

 

3)  And, making the election about "what has the government done, since the R's took over full control?" is a much better political message.  It makes it a lot tougher for the GOP to distance themselves from Trump.  It makes the debate about what the GOP (all of them, not just Trump) have actually done.  

 

It makes the Dems a party that's associated with debating issues, rather than about pursuing political vengeance or power.  

 

It also creates a message that can still be used, if something happens to Trump.  

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Exactly Larry.  I don't want to hear one word about impeachment. Make him a one termer like Bush 41. 

 

Stuff going to hit the fan vis a vis the safety net for Trump's base. We need to make Republicans pay for their cruelty and the transfer of wealth upwards.

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Impeachment isn't even worth considering unless an investigation concludes Trump committed an impeachment-worthy offense.  Until then, a call for impeachment is frivolous.  If an investigation concludes that Trump committed such an offense, then impeachment must be pursued and the effort must be bipartisan.  The political calculus for Democrats has to take a back seat to the critical enforcement of laws for the Presidency because not doing so undermines our Democracy.

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6 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

Impeachment isn't even worth considering unless an investigation concludes Trump committed an impeachment-worthy offense.  Until then, a call for impeachment is frivolous.  If an investigation concludes that Trump committed such an offense, then impeachment must be pursued and the effort must be bipartisan.  The political calculus for Democrats has to take a back seat to the critical enforcement of laws for the Presidency because not doing so undermines our Democracy.

 

Your last sentence should also apply to Republicans, but I don't think anyone actually believes that they would do the right thing.

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2 minutes ago, PleaseBlitz said:

 

Your last sentence should also apply to Republicans, but I don't think anyone actually believes that they would do the right thing.

 

Agreed.  Unfortunately.  However, I think there might be enough patriotic Republicans left in Congress to do the right thing in the face of such a serious threat to the country.  But I could be dead wrong, they've given us plenty of reason to doubt their patriotism as a collective group.

 

Impeachment of a sitting President is so grave a measure that it needs to be an apolitical matter of law enforcement.  But it never is and it never will be with a President like Trump.  He's an autocrat with a very large cult of personality and a powerful propaganda network supporting him and he has slaughtered every sacred cow in our political and institutional life in order to weaponize the issue for his personal gain.  And his base does not care about consistency or truth or Democracy.  For them, supporting Trump is a matter of existential survival for White Supremacy in this country.

 

Kicking all of that **** out of power is going to be harrowing.  There will be constitutional crises and there will be politically motivated violence.  The country is perhaps an even bigger powder keg than it was in 1968 and 1972.  If Democrats win a majority in Congress, I think it's going to be much easier for both Congressional Democrats and Republicans to sweep findings from the Mueller investigation under the rug and wait out Trump's term unless they involve very serious and explicit charges.  If they do, then I think there will be enough Republicans to go with the Democrats on impeachment to keep from tearing the country apart.

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Since the Republicans voted lockstep in the Senate and majority of them in the House for their tax scam bill, I don't have much hope that they will do the right thing, ever. In my eyes, they are all compromised.

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3 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

Agreed.  Unfortunately.  However, I think there might be enough patriotic Republicans left in Congress to do the right thing in the face of such a serious threat to the country.  But I could be dead wrong, they've given us plenty of reason to doubt their patriotism as a collective group.

 

 

Everything ive seen for the last few decades says that the Rs in congress might impeach Trump. But if they do, it won't be because their patriotism overrode their party loyalty. It will be because they decided that impeachment will be better for the party than not doing so. 

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7 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

 

Kicking all of that **** out of power is going to be harrowing.  There will be constitutional crises and there will be politically motivated violence.  The country is perhaps an even bigger powder keg than it was in 1968 and 1972.

 

I don't see it.

Though the wheels could come off. :evil:

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3 hours ago, twa said:

 

I don't see it.

Though the wheels could come off. :evil:

 

Fortunately, the GOP is doing their damnedest to give the car insurance, the AAA membership, the spare tire, the jack, and the cell phone to the top 1%.  So that when the wheel comes off, we'll be really, totally, screwed.  

 

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6 hours ago, Larry said:

 

Fortunately, the GOP is doing their damnedest to give the car insurance, the AAA membership, the spare tire, the jack, and the cell phone to the top 1%.  So that when the wheel comes off, we'll be really, totally, screwed.  

 

 

If they are doing a 100 mph do those things matter?

 

 

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17 hours ago, Larry said:

 

Fortunately, the GOP is doing their damnedest to give the car insurance, the AAA membership, the spare tire, the jack, and the cell phone to the top 1%.  So that when the wheel comes off, we'll be really, totally, screwed.  

 

 

9 hours ago, twa said:

 

If they are doing a 100 mph do those things matter?

 

 

 

. . . and trying to justify their intentionally making the nation more dangerous by making vague references somewhere else.  

 

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At this point, without a smoking gun or something so egregious (firing Mueller would be a step in that direction) the only thing impeachment talk is going to do is drive away the fence-riders who are embarrassed by Trump more than anything and would considering voting against his best interests. 

 

I want the mid-terms to be about the destruction his policies will create.  Most of what he has either passed or signed into law is incredibly unpopular, so that is where the focus should be.  Tell people this is only the beginning if the GOP retains control of the House & Senate.  Tell the people if they want Trump gone in 2020, then 2018 is the first huge sign that it will happen.

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While the thought of a nationwide Dem campaign that consists entirely of "The GOP has been in sole control of the government for two years. And this is what they've done, with the power you gave them." absolutely has an appeal, to me, I see drawbacks, too. 

 

A big part of it is that it's a campaign based on running against a pile of legislation that won't have harmed the country yet

 

The folks who are running this conspiracy to harm the country know that their actions will harm the country. They just figure that they can blame somebody else for it. If there's a delay between the passage, and the harm. So, they're designing their bills so that they don't take effect right away. 

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They bad things will hit them in 2019 when their deductions are taken away, and they gave to pay for the bits in their paychecks in 2018.

 

It will affect 2020. 

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7 minutes ago, LadySkinsFan said:

They bad things will hit them in 2019 when their deductions are taken away, and they gave to pay for the bits in their paychecks in 2018.

 

It will affect 2020. 

 

Which they will blame on the Democrats, for not extending the temporary tax cuts.  

 

Just like they've done, successfully, for the last two decades.  

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