Drafting a franchise QB from the Redskins draft slot: what 25 years of history tells us

Last year I would have traded 2 full drafts for Sam Bradford, and this year might be tempted to do it again for Andrew Luck. By full drafts, I mean all available picks, rounds 1-3.

However, this year I don't see the Panthers giving up the pick, assuming they pick #1, and I don't see Shanahan offering what would be required.

So, we move on to Plan B. Elsewhere I've made the argument for Rex Grossman as starter. Here I simply give you History's Guide to QBs Picked in the Redskin Slot.

"Redskin Slot" is defined as the higher of:

• 3rd QB picked in the first round, or
  
• First QB picked with pick #6 or lower
  

This presumes that 2 QBs will be picked in the first 5 picks, and the Redskins will draft #6 or lower. The actual scenario could be worse. As many as 3 QBs could be picked before the Redskins pick, and the Redskins might pick as low as #10.

Here we go. Meet the future Redskin franchise QBs, from 25 years of history!

2010: Tim Tebow (#25, second QB after Sam Bradford)

2009: Josh Freeman (#17, third QB. Mark Sanchez was #5)

2008: Joe Flacco (#18, second QB after Matt Ryan)

2007: Brady Quinn (#22, second QB after JaMarcus Russell)

2006: Matt Leinart (#10, second QB after Vince Young)

2005: Aaron Rodgers (#24, second QB after Alex Smith)

2004: Ben Roethlisberger (#11, third QB after Eli Manning and Philip Rivers)

2003: Byron Leftwich (#7, second QB after Carson Palmer)

2002: Patrick Ramsey (#32, third QB after David Carr & Joey Harrington)

2001: N/A no qualifiers

2000: N/A no qualifiers

1999: Akili Smith (#3, third QB after Tim Couch & Donovan McNabb)

1998: N/A no qualfiers. Ryan Leaf #2, second QB after Peyton Manning

1997: N/A no qualifiers

1996: N/A no qualifiers

1995: N/A no qualifiers. Kerry Collins #5 after Steve McNair.

1994: Trent Dilfer (#6, second QB after Heath Schuler)

1993: N/A no qualifiers. Rick Mirer #2, second QB after Drew Bledsoe.

1992: Tommy Maddox (#25, second QB after David Klinger)

1991: Todd Marinovich (#24, second QB after Dan McGuire)

1990: Andre Ware (#7, second QB after Jeff George)

1989: N/A no qualifiers

1988: N/A no qualiifers

1987: Kelly Stouffer (#6, second QB after Vinny Testaverde)

1986: Chuck Long (#12, second QB after Jim Everett)

Summing up:

• 25 drafts
  
• 4 drafts with franchise QBs available & chosen in / around Redskin slot
  
• 21 drafts with busts in Redskin slot or not even a 2nd QB chosen in first round
  
• Odds of hitting franchise QB: 16%
  

I wanted Sam Bradford last year, and I want Andrew Luck this year. Assuming that we aren't getting Luck, history tells us that picking "the next best thing" has about a 16% chance of working out, and 84% chance of saddling the team with an expensive bust who costs a pick better used for another position.

There is no second place in the franchise QB derby, at the top of the draft. Either you win big, or it's a disaster that scars the franchise for years. You don't get 90% of a franchise QB by missing: you get 100% of a 4-year hangover.

Drafting a franchise QB is a dream come true. Wanting that dream does not make it happen, and using a high #1 pick on wishful thinking has 84% odds of making things much worse.

The Redkins simply don't suck enough to be rewarded with a franchise QB.

So says history.

If Grossman doesn't regress badly and immediately, he's the obvious Redskins starting QB for the next four years under the Shanahan regime. If he does regress badly in the next 2 games, then I'd look long and hard at trading whatever is required for Andrew Luck.

It's all about the next two games. Either Grossman performs, or all chips should be on the table for Andrew Luck.

I said this in another thread, but there is nothing worse than being really bad but going 5-11, 6-10 or 7-9. If you are going to suck, go big. Go 2-14 or 3-13. It is your best chance to grab a franchise QB. There is nothing worse for a franchise than slowly dying with 7-9 or 8-8 records, drafting 10th through 15th and never being bad enough to grab a game changing franchise player.

I said this in another thread, but there is nothing worse than being really bad but going 5-11, 6-10 or 7-9. If you are going to suck, go big. Go 2-14 or 3-13. It is your best chance to grab a franchise QB. There is nothing worse for a franchise than slowly dying with 7-9 or 8-8 records, drafting 10th through 15th and never being bad enough to grab a game changing franchise player.

Which is why we should have started IRing guys and putting in younger guys earlier in the season. As soon as we were mathematically eliminated we should have started tanking.

No one likes to hear that but there is NO reason to keep winning games once you know you won't make the playoffs. I can't root against this team but I don't want us to win these next games because it does zero for the team going forward.

Good post

If Luck is not possible, get Darius in round 1 and Hudson in round 2 to shore up both lines a bit.

Work on fixing the o-line and d-line until the opportunity presents itself. This QB draft to me is Luck or nothing, similar to last year being Bradford or nothing

And yes, I would have also traded quite a bit for Bradford. It looks like those of us who wanted him last offseason are fairly vindicated, even though Trent has been terrific

---------- Post added December-21st-2010 at 10:25 PM ----------

Which is why we should have started IRing guys and putting in younger guys earlier in the season. As soon as we were mathematically eliminated we should have started tanking.

No one likes to hear that but there is NO reason to keep winning games once you know you won't make the playoffs. I can't root against this team but I don't want us to win these next games because it does zero for the team going forward.

Agree, but we were 4-3 at one point

There was still a very good chance at making the playoffs.

A 4-12 team wouldn't get us the top spot

And also, for those not wanting to trade the farm for Luck, this kid is the total package

WQ-a-N9Y5mc

Personally, I'm going after Luck. Hard.

Multiple 1st rounders, players etc. Do whatever is necessary.

Well, even if we can't get the top QB, good news. We stink and have holes at almost every position and will get a great player.

Ricky Stanzi (or) Pat Devlin

That is all.......

For those wanting to trade up to get Luck, and those last year including myself who wanted Bradford, how much are you willing to give up in draft picks? Every team will trade their pick for the right pick.

For those wanting to trade up to get Luck, and those last year including myself who wanted Bradford, how much are you willing to give up in draft picks? Every team will trade their pick for the right pick.

I wanted Bradford last year but I REALLY, REALLY want Luck.

I'm willing to give up this years 1st, next year's 1st, McNabb, Haynesworth, Cooley, next year's 3rd etc.

The price is going to be costly.....

For those wanting to trade up to get Luck, and those last year including myself who wanted Bradford, how much are you willing to give up in draft picks? Every team will trade their pick for the right pick.

1st this year, 1st next year, 2nd this year, 2nd next year, 4th next year + Cooley or Davis

Andrew Luck is going to be a star and an excellent fit in our system

1st this year, 1st next year, 2nd this year, 2nd next year, 4th next year + Cooley or Davis

Andrew Luck is going to be a star and an excellent fit in our system

I think it would be absolutely crazy to trade multiple picks for luck considering how thin the team is. What good is it to have a great QB when you have no talent around him.

I'd rather see them draft bpa and play Rex.

Last year I was all over doing whatever it took to get Bradford. Hell if the Rams let him test FA in a few years I'd still all for signing him. The year before, I was about getting Cutler in here, though I did know Shanny was on in here. And we almost had him. Cutler & Shanny here together, we'd be a lot further along as they match together almost, if not, perfectly. Cutler is having a good year in Chicago even though he's not the pocket passer needed to run Martz's offense. Make no mistake, Shanny has been watching enough film/cut ups of a few guys already in the Draft. He may not be set on a guy as his next guy, yet, but he is looking for the next apple of his eye.If there's one position Shanny knows better then anything, it's quarterback.

The definition at play is absurd. Every draft is deep at certain positions and we have no idea if we get the 2nd 3rd or 4th qb. Ramsey is a perfect example of the absurdity at play here. Comparing a guy in the process of falling out of the 1st round to Newton, Locker, and Luck..., three guys that all go before Ramsey in a draft. In fact there might be 2 more in this draft that are better prospects.

The bottom line is if Shanahan sees a franchise qb he likes take him because despite ASF's heavily framed narrow arguments Rec hasn't shown he's the answer to any question other than "who will be the back up"

I think it would be absolutely crazy to trade multiple picks for luck considering how thin the team is. What good is it to have a great QB when you have no talent around him.

I'd rather see them draft bpa and play Rex.

You need a QB in today's NFL to truly become elite. Its that simple. And as of now, this is a 1 QB draft, that being Andrew Luck

I think Cam Newton has terrific potential, but a guy like Luck would set the franchise up the next several years.

Bring in a quality FA class on the o-line and d-line, watch the team improve with its young QB and then start to back fill with young talent in 2 years.

The fact is the NFL of 2010 you need a QB. The 80s are over, you won't ever see a franchise win 3 Superbowls with 3 different QBs in 9 years

Unfortunantly we will probably be 5 and 11, have a defense ranked dead last, both lines as a unit suck, running backs yet to prove themselves, average at best linebackers, problems at safety etc. etc. One quarterback who can play is not going to solve this teams issues. We will have to hopefully find a gem somewhere in a later round. We need those draft picks for other positions. The strategy on this board sounds to much like what we have done the past 10 years in FA. It is not about who you draft in the early rounds, its about those 3rd rounders and below that become contributors. Think about the receivers we drafted several years ago and how they turned out and then look at some of the receivers who were drafted after they were that are now stars in this league.

Looking at your list, something jumps out to me. In most cases where those busts occur, the problem wasn't that the team was too low to get the best QB, it was that that draft simply didn't have a franchise QB.

2010, in my mind, is to soon to tell. I doubt Tebow is anything, but I can't know it for sure.

2009: All three QBs appear to be franchise QBs.

2008: Both were franchise QBs.

2007: Both Russel and Quinn were busts

2006: Both Leinart and Young were busts

2005: Rodgers is a stud, Campbell (right after) and Alex Smith were busts.

2004: RIvers, Eli, and Ben are studs

2003: Tough to grade Leftwhich and Palmer. I wouldn't call them busts.

The point that I'm trying to make is that history shows us that, with the exception of 2005 and MAYBE 2010, we rarely see the draft playing out as some of the QBs being studs and some being busts.

Instead, we usually see clusters. A given draft either has 2-3 studs, or it has 2-3 busts. Look at it in terms of draft classes.

09 are all studs

08 are all studs

07 are all busts

06 are all busts

05 is the anomaly where you get one guy in each category

04 were all studs

03 you can classify either way, but they were pretty equal in their success.

I don't know what the data means, but I can tell you I don't buy into "QB X is a stud and QB Y will be a bust." In my mind, that is just some people wanting to put down the QB they don't like in order to pull up the one they do. When you look at the actual data, you can see that entire draft classes tend to go together. Rarely do you see one of the QBs pan out and one bust, as was the case in 2005. Again, 2010 may be the case, with Bradford looking like a stud. But I'm not ready to make that claim until I see how Tebow, Claussen, and Mccoy pan out. I know they aren't first rounders, but still.

1st this year, 1st next year, 2nd this year, 2nd next year, 4th next year + Cooley or Davis

Andrew Luck is going to be a star and an excellent fit in our system

If you trade away all those picks and players, what system?

If you fix the rest of the team then in a couple of years you can spend every pick on a QB.

If you trade away all those picks and players, what system?

If you fix the rest of the team then in a couple of years you can spend every pick on a QB.

You can't predict that we'll be in a position to get a QB in a couple of years.

we all know a tight end is a QB's security blanket, so we start giving up Cooley and Davis, who the crap is this guy supposed to throw to? Especially a rookie QB, he will need a good TE more than most. Also, correct me if I'm wrong (knowing I covet Luck as well, best QB by far) isn't Kellen Moore coming out this year (Sr.)? I know he's extremely accurate. Not sure about arm strength. But I know Boise ran a lot of roll outs/ play action for him as well and he excelled in that; which is very similar to what we do. He also seems to make better decisions than Jake Locker, Ryan Mallet or Christian Ponder. With Ponder being injury prone I wouldn't want him. Locker and Mallet have riffles for arms, but make me nervous. Just wondering what the thought on Moore is. I would love to get Luck, but it seems Moore would excel in our offense.

-HTTR

we all know a tight end is a QB's security blanket, so we start giving up Cooley and Davis, who the crap is this guy supposed to throw to? Especially a rookie QB, he will need a good TE more than most. Also, correct me if I'm wrong (knowing I covet Luck as well, best QB by far) isn't Kellen Moore coming out this year (Sr.)? I know he's extremely accurate. Not sure about arm strength. But I know Boise ran a lot of roll outs/ play action for him as well and he excelled in that; which is very similar to what we do. He also seems to make better decisions than Jake Locker, Ryan Mallet or Christian Ponder. With Ponder being injury prone I wouldn't want him. Locker and Mallet have riffles for arms, but make me nervous. Just wondering what the thought on Moore is. I would love to get Luck, but it seems Moore would excel in our offense.

-HTTR

I like Kellen Moore but I don't believe that he has the arm strength that Shanny likes in his QBs.

If you trade away all those picks and players, what system?

If you fix the rest of the team then in a couple of years you can spend every pick on a QB.

You get the QB first. It moves your franchise much quicker

Yes, we can spend 5 years to put together a perfect o-line, 2 stud WRs, and the 2000 Baltimore Ravens on D. Yet we still won't get to the Superbowl

Or we could get the man at QB, allow him to work with the pieces we have now, supplement a bit through FA to give him a better o-line and, similar to the Giants, draft well over the next few years and have something special set up for the next decade

I would love it if we found a QB in round 6 like Brady. But damn, think of how much futher along we would be with Bradford today

Agree, but we were 4-3 at one point

There was still a very good chance at making the playoffs.

A 4-12 team wouldn't get us the top spot

True.

Never should have traded for McNabb. Should have traded Fat Albert.

Shoulda coulda woulda.

Gotta get a franchise QB. There's no one on this roster who comes close to that.

I like Kellen Moore but I don't believe that he has the arm strength that Shanny likes in his QBs.

Yeah, that was my biggest question about him. I wasn't to sure of his arm. Maybe with some good off-season work he can build that up. Bradford went from scrawny to pretty well bulked up before the draft and that seemed to help his velocity from what i saw from him in Oklahoma. I know Moore is a sniper, now he needs to trade in that .22 for something with some kick to it...

True.

Never should have traded for McNabb. Should have traded Fat Albert.

Shoulda coulda woulda.

Or we could have just stayed in a 4-3 and built the defense around him (which was my choice).

Shoulda coulda woulda.

---------- Post added December-22nd-2010 at 04:22 AM ----------

Yeah, that was my biggest question about him. I wasn't to sure of his arm. Maybe with some good off-season work he can build that up. Bradford went from scrawny to pretty well bulked up before the draft and that seemed to help his velocity from what i saw from him in Oklahoma. I know Moore is a sniper, now he needs to trade in that .22 for something with some kick to it...

I wish we had managed to pull off the Cutler trade.

Fix the o-line and maybe the QB play will pick up?