WP: Confidence in Stimulus Plan Ebbs, Poll Finds

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/06/22/AR2009062202000.html?hpid=moreheadlines

2 things this poll tells me

A) The stimulus is NOT having the immediate impact that was promised

President Obama will have no problem with re-election, nor will Democrats in the 2010 midterms, despite the shape of the economy. Looking long term, this is a very big problem for Republicans (feeds into my hypothesis about power in DC for the next few decades)

Barely half of Americans are now confident that President Obama's $787 billion stimulus measure will boost the economy, and the rapid rise in optimism about the state of the nation that followed the 2008 election has abated, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

Overall, 52 percent now say the stimulus package has succeeded or will succeed in restoring the economy, compared with 59 percent two months ago. The falloff in confidence has been sharpest in the hard-hit Midwest, where fewer than half now see the government spending as succeeding. In April, six in 10 Midwesterners said the federal program had worked or would do so.

The tempered public outlook has not significantly affected Obama's overall approval rating, which at 65 percent in the new survey outpaces the ratings of Presidents George W. Bush and Bill Clinton at similar points in their tenures. But new questions about the stimulus package's effectiveness underscore the stakes for the Obama administration in the months ahead as it pushes for big reforms in health care and energy at the same time it attempts to revive the nation's flagging economy.

Obama maintains leverage on these issues in part because of the continuing weakness of his opposition. The survey found the favorability ratings of congressional Republicans at their lowest point in more than a decade. Obama also has significant advantages over GOP lawmakers in terms of public trust on dealing with the economy, health care, the deficit and the threat of terrorism, despite broad-based Republican criticism of his early actions on these fronts.

With unemployment projected to continue rising and fears that the big run-up in stock prices since February may have been a temporary trend, fixing the economy remains the most critical issue of Obama's presidency -- and retaining public confidence in his policies is an important element of his recovery strategy.

The shift in public assessments of the stimulus package has clear political ramifications: At the 100-day mark of Obama's presidency, 63 percent of people in states that were decided by fewer than 10 percentage points in November said the stimulus act had or would boost the economy. Today, in the telephone poll of 1,001 Americans conducted Thursday through Sunday, the number has plummeted to 50 percent in those closely contested states, with nearly as many now saying the stimulus program will not help the national economy.

The falloff since April cuts across partisan lines. Confidence in the package's effectiveness has dropped from 81 percent to 73 percent among Democrats and from 32 percent to 26 percent among Republicans. Among independents, it has dropped from 56 percent to 50 percent. What was once a clearly positive assessment of the program among independents (56 to 39 percent) is now an almost even split (50 to 47 percent).

Public confidence in the direction of the country remains well above pre-election lows, but in the new survey, that indicator stopped rising for the first time since the election. In April, the number of Americans saying things were moving in a positive direction hit 50 percent for the first time in more than six years, up from single digits before the November election. In the new survey, 47 percent said they believe the country is moving in the right direction and 50 percent said it is pretty seriously off on the wrong track.

Obama's approval rating is slightly lower than it was in April, and his disapproval figure has risen by five percentage points. In general, public approval of his handling of major issues is lower than his overall rating. Still, majorities of Americans said they approved of Obama's handling of the economy, health care and global warming.

Two weak points on the domestic front remain: Obama still gets tepid marks on his handling of problems facing the big U.S. automakers, and as many people disapprove as approve of his handling of the federal budget deficit. On the deficit, intensity runs against the president, with 35 percent "strongly" disapproving, compared with 22 percent who say they are solidly behind his efforts.

More broadly, worries about the deficit remain widespread, with almost nine in 10 Americans saying they are "very" or "somewhat" concerned about its size.

One factor that continues to work for Obama, however, is that most Americans still see him as a new type of Democrat, one "who will be careful with the public's money," rather than an old-style, "tax-and-spend Democrat." By this point in 1993, Clinton had lost the new-style label, which he had maintained over the first months of his presidency.

Obama has used the power and financial resources of the federal government repeatedly as he has dealt with the country's problems this year, to the consternation of his Republican critics. The poll found little change in underlying public attitudes toward government since the inauguration, with slightly more than half saying they prefer a smaller government with fewer services to a larger government with more services. Independents, however, now split 61 to 35 percent in favor of a smaller government; they were more narrowly divided on this question a year ago (52 to 44 percent), before the financial crisis hit.

As in previous polls, Obama's ratings on foreign policy are generally higher than on domestic issues. Six in 10 said they approve of his handling of international affairs, and 57 percent said they approve of his handling of the threat of terrorism. More said Obama's policies are making the United States safer than said they have weakened the country, but, as in April, a plurality said they have not made much of a difference.

But on specific questions about the use of torture in terrorism investigations and the closing of the detention center at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, there is still broad public pushback to his announced policies. Fewer than half, 45 percent, said they approve of shutting down the military prison, and when asked whether they would accept those terrorism suspects in their home states, support dropped to 37 percent.

The country remains sharply divided on torture, with nearly half saying there are cases in which torture should be considered. The president has condemned the practice.

On Iran, some Republicans have criticized Obama's response to the recent anti-government demonstrations there, with critics saying he has not been vocal enough in promoting democracy and in siding with the protesters. In the new survey, 52 percent said they approved of how he has handled the situation. There has been no noticeable change in assessments of his handling of relations with Iran since the last poll in April, before the controversy over the Iranian presidential election erupted.

The state of the Republican Party remains grim. Just 22 percent of those surveyed identified themselves as Republicans, near April's decades-long low point. Thirty-six percent said they have a favorable impression of the GOP, and 56 percent said they have an unfavorable impression. (Fifty-three percent said they have a favorable view of the Democratic Party.)

Obama leads congressional Republicans by more than 20 points in public trust on dealing with health care, the deficit, terrorism and the economy. The margin on the economy has slipped since April, but it remains a hefty 55 percent to 31 percent.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's ratings stand at 38 percent positive and 45 percent negative. The last time the Post-ABC poll asked about Pelosi (D-Calif.) was in April 2007. At that time, 53 percent said they approved of the way she was handling her job and 35 percent disapproved.

The latest poll has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points.

I totally agree with your 2 hypotheses SHF.

The GOP stigma will remain unless we see a very dramatic shift in approach coupled with point blank acknowledgment of where they went astray from core principles. In short, Dump the neo-cons.

That stigma probably will carry the Dems for the next few years alone, despite the failures in economic policy that are evident.

have you heard the rumors that they are considerring another trillion in stimulus coming? I heard it yesterday but have not seen validation of the rumor as yet.

I totally agree with your 2 hypotheses SHF.

The GOP stigma will remain unless we see a very dramatic shift in approach coupled with point blank acknowledgment of where they went astray from core principles. In short, Dump the neo-cons.

That stigma probably will carry the Dems for the next few years alone, despite the failures in economic policy that are evident.

have you heard the rumors that they are considerring another trillion in stimulus coming? I heard it yesterday but have not seen validation of the rumor as yet.

Haven't heard any rumors of the trillion dollar stimulus. Would not surprise me however if growth remains weak going into next year that something is brought to the table for mid terms

Peter Schiff put it best in a speech he made to the Libertarian Party of Connecticut. He said the Libertarians must "infiltrate and take over" the Republican party, and very quickly in order for there to exist a chance of providing legit opposition in DC

Right now, there is no legit opposition. Just crazy people

Who thought it was going to work?

Who thought it was going to work?

Sadly, only a few professed the "truth" in that matter, and were subsequently gagged by the masses.

Even now, we will see many make silly claims of "it just needs time" or even better, "It ""SAVED"" jobs" (Which is unmeasurable at best)

If unemployment,energy costs and taxes continue the present course there will be consequences at the polls.

If the elections were this fall, the GOP would gain nothing.

However, if things dont improve by this time next year, the leftwing cries about how it's all Bush's fault will fall on deaf ears.

The Virginia Gov election will be an interesting early test of Obama and the Dems election power.

Also remember, the GOPers left in Congress are about as safe as they can get. IF they survived 06 and 08 and kept their seats, it's highly unlikely they will lose them now.

The trend is not in Obamas favor.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/june_2009/39_now_blame_bad_economy_on_obama_s_policies

While most U.S. voters still blame the Bush Administration for the nation’s economic problems, a growing number are inclined to blame President Barack Obama.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 39% of voters now say the country’s economic problems are caused more by the policies Obama has put in place. That’s a 12-point jump from a month ago.

Fifty-four percent (54%) still say the country’s economic woes are due to the recession Obama inherited from President Bush. That figure is down eight points from 62% from early June.

The idea that infrastructure spending would boost the economy at all, let alone quickly, was always absurd. Two weeks ago Biden was on Meet the Press explaining how we had to be patient because the money was still working it's way through competitive bidding processes at the state level -- exactly the reason this was a stupid way to stimulate the economy. Did we need infrastructure spending? Yes. Was it the best , or even a viable, way to stimulate the economy? Obviously no.

As for Obama's high public rating compared to Bush and Clinton at the same point, it is an absurd comparison. By this point, Clinton's administration had stumbled from one gaff to the next; Bush had just finished a contested, Supreme-Court-decided post-election battle. So wow, their numbers were low in comparison? Go figure.

If the current situation persists, the American people will punish the Dems, starting in Congress. Nasty Pelosi and crew are nowhere near as popular as the president.

I guess the news of thousands of dead people getting stimulus money and other wasteful and fraud spending has people wondering after Obama said fraud waste and abuse wouldn't be the case with VP "Nobody messes with Joe" Biden in charge.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/06/22/AR2009062202000.html?hpid=moreheadlines

2 things this poll tells me

A) The stimulus is NOT having the immediate impact that was promised

President Obama will have no problem with re-election, nor will Democrats in the 2010 midterms, despite the shape of the economy. Looking long term, this is a very big problem for Republicans (feeds into my hypothesis about power in DC for the next few decades)

I see.

FOX = Right leaning = Crazy

Post = Left leaning = OBAMA IS AWESOME!

Why don't you ask people who are getting rejected for mortgage aid because they are "too responsible" or they "have a savings account." Or the small business owners who bring just over $200,000 and are forced to pay more then 40% in taxes to help aid people who are irresponsible, but are getting bailed out by Obama. (Wasn't it Obama's plan to protect these people and not tax the hell out of them?)

You ask them how awesome Obama is.

I think the more Obama makes it easier ot be lazy and irresponsible, the more working people are going to get pissed.

I already can't watch him spin more crap without getting angry.

He is a stereotypical tax-and-spend democrat who just wants to be liked by everyone.

I see.

FOX = Right leaning = Crazy

Post = Left leaning = OBAMA IS AWESOME!

Why don't you ask people who are getting rejected for mortgage aid because they are "too responsible" or they "have a savings account." Or the small business owners who bring just over $200,000 and are forced to pay more then 40% in taxes to help aid people who are irresponsible, but are getting bailed out by Obama. (Wasn't it Obama's plan to protect these people and not tax the hell out of them?)

You ask them how awesome Obama is.

I think the more Obama makes it easier ot be lazy and irresponsible, the more working people are going to get pissed.

I already can't watch him spin more crap without getting angry.

He is a stereotypical tax-and-spend democrat who just wants to be liked by everyone.

I never said Obama is awesome

hell, I am probably one of his bigger critics

It is just that the GOP right now is laughable as opposition. And you can't win elections on "I am not them" Thats what Dems and John Kerry tried in 2004

I never said Obama is awesome

hell, I am probably one of his bigger critics

It is just that the GOP right now is laughable as opposition. And you can't win elections on "I am not them" Thats what Dems and John Kerry tried in 2004

It's also how Obama got elected...

I see.

FOX = Right leaning = Crazy

Post = Left leaning = OBAMA IS AWESOME!

Riggo, I'd like to introduce you to SkinsHokieFan.

I think you'll find he's not who you think he is. :hysterical:

I think the dissonance is still in what the purpose of the stimulus is/was. In my mind the purpose was to create jobs and staunch the blood flow, but it wasn't to fix the economy. Now, people (including me) think about the size of the stimulus and think that it should be the great cure, but it wasn't intended to do that. Even President Obama said and said repeatedly that the stimulus was the start, not the finish.

The biggest problem with the stimulus is the problem I see going forward with Health care. It was too rushed. It's worse with health care actually because while it is situation that has been neglected for decades and needs to be dealt with... we can still artificially manufacture enough time to try to get this done thoughtfully. I think it is a terrible mistake to try to sprint to get THE major healthcare reform written, analyzed, and passed so quickly.

I think the stimulus suffers from the same sprinter's flaw. Too much, too quickly done is bound to have mistakes, fraud, and waste. Mind you, the banks have seemed to stabalize. The real estate market seems better. and there are other symptoms that we aren't falling off a cliff. So, perhaps the stimulus has done some short term good.

What I worry about with the stimulus is the long term though. Sure, we got the sprinter through the first forty yards fine, but the problem is he's running a twenty six mile marathon and that forty yard lead might just do more harm than good.

Anyone who lives around here can see the effects of the stimulus. The gridlock is literal, every road being worked on simultaneously. The thing that bothers me is that MD generally takes good care of it's roads, so they are getting redone when they do not really need it, and done at a hurried pace. I guess, I just do not see how a paving company and it's 50 foreign born minimum wage workers are going to stimulate the economy.

I'm not even that opposed to infrastructure investment. It's the irrational allocation of resources I have a problem with. There's no transparent screening process out there that can help decision-makers at local, state, and federal levels determine which infrastructure needs are more pressing than others.

Obama's solution? Print up trillions upon trillions of worthless dollars, let the sharks frenzy, and leave the tab for our grandchildren.

The notion that this would stimuluate anything but bankrupcy is a reach.

While the GOP is indeed flirting with long-term irrelevance, to think the Democrats won't totally screw things up for the next half century is, IMO, a little ridiculous.

And conservatives will not stand idly by for that long either.

We certainly arent getting our money's worth from the "stimulus."

As far as the GOP winning back power, they need to stop fumbling around with issues, and just put forward good-looking people that speak really well.

We certainly arent getting our money's worth from the "stimulus."

As far as the GOP winning back power, they need to stop fumbling around with issues, and just put forward good-looking people that speak really well.

A whole bunch of Sarah Palins?

OLS

A whole bunch of Sarah Palins?

OLS

I said that speak really well. Not that say a ****load of words that dont mean anything. :laugh:

A whole bunch of Sarah Palins?

OLS

That's funny. :hysterical:

In my mind the Republicans have only two short term problems:

1) They've lost credibility. They have always said one thing and done the other. So, the "words" or "plans/promises" of Republicans are worth only a little less than a three dollar bill.

You may not like what Obama's doing, but he trying to do exactly what he said he would during the campaign.

2) They can't do much. Given that a large part of the nation believes that they dug this ditch and that their words don't match their actions then what the Republicans need to do is ACT and prove their actions are better. Unfortunately or fortunately, they're choosing obstructionism and their numbers preclude them from acting. So, you have empty words followed up by no deeds. That's not a recipe for winning back the American people.

It is my belief that the best way for the Republicans to get back into power is to make Obama as successful a President as humanly possible. An incredibly successful presidency does three things for the Republican Party:

1) It will allow for the argument that things weren't all that bad and makes it easier to "forgive" Republicans for their missteps.

2) By working together, the rancor of partisanship will diminish making the lines blurrier.

3) Allow them to share in the credit for all the good stuff, while still being the party of opposition for the stuff that failed to work.

This strategy will allow the country to do better because everyone will actually be working together instead of poisioning and tearing everything and everyone in sight and while it will probably lead to very short term losses for the Repubs, overall, it will lead to greater vitality within the party and a much more positive out look from the people

I happened to believe that the polls are starting to indicate buyer's remorse. People bought the whole "hope and change" mantra... and these same people couldn't tell you a single policy issue or campaign pillar that Obama stood for in the election. All they could say was ... "He's for hope and change, which is what America really needs".

What they are seeing now is... this "hope and change" comes with a huge price tag... in the TRILLIONS... and they are starting to understand this "change" cannot be done without costing them money. People are starting to realize that the bill is going to come due... and future generations are going to be crushed under the weight of the national debt.

With reports of a Trillion for healthcare, higher energy costs, Pork stimulus bill waste and fraud... they are going to say enough. They'll want to wrest control of the purse springs from the Democrats... and they'll give it back to the Repubs for no reason but to stop the madness. Obama may win re-election, although I have my doubts he won't be thrown out with the rest of the Big spending Dems in 2012, the country is going to want some checks and balances. They see now that having a govt. steamrolling spending and jeopardizing our future generation's future with national debt is a bad thing and should be corrected.

I happened to believe that the polls are starting to indicate buyer's remorse. People bought the whole "hope and change" mantra... and these same people couldn't tell you a single policy issue or campaign pillar that Obama stood for in the election. All they could say was ... "He's for hope and change, which is what America really needs".

What they are seeing now is... this "hope and change" comes with a huge price tag... in the TRILLIONS... and they are starting to understand this "change" cannot be done without costing them money. People are starting to realize that the bill is going to come due... and future generations are going to be crushed under the weight of the national debt.

With reports of a Trillion for healthcare, higher energy costs, Pork stimulus bill waste and fraud... they are going to say enough. They'll want to wrest control of the purse springs from the Democrats... and they'll give it back to the Repubs for no reason but to stop the madness. Obama may win re-election, although I have my doubts he won't be thrown out with the rest of the Big spending Dems in 2012, the country is going to want some checks and balances. They see now that having a govt. steamrolling spending and jeopardizing our future generation's future with national debt is a bad thing and should be corrected.

I truly wish that I had an ounce of confidence in the GOP to "stop the madness". The unfortunately fact remains that they were just as complicit in the economic mess as any Dem.

I'd just love to know who buffaloed everyone into thinking that calling 1000 people at random gives anyone a clear picture of what 300 million of us think on any issue at all.

~Bang

I'd just love to know who buffaloed everyone into thinking that calling 1000 people at random gives anyone a clear picture of what 300 million of us think on any issue at all.

~Bang

Just about any statistician can confirm that it is a sound predictor of a population. Of course, thats given that the sampling method accounts for variation to the same degree in the sample as in the population.