2023 Offseason Mini Camp, OTA’s, Training Camp Discussion Thread: Hallelujah, Josh Harris & Co. Era Edition

[Voice_of_Reason]

19 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

Watching the week 4 Cowboys game last year and the main problem is the Oline. The week before the Eagles sacked Wentz 7 times in the first half. Cowboys had two sacks in our first drive. 

 

We're also going to miss Holcomb a lot and he's not a great LBer.

Turner also did a horrendously awful job trying to do anything to help the OL. The entire season.

 

His attempt to help the protection was to run the ball and use slow developing play action.

 

I think EB is going to protect the OL a lot better.

 

And with any luck at all, Howell is a little better at getting the ball out than either Wentz or TH.  
 

It all works together. My hope is the combination of:

 

1. EB not being an idiot, which is the biggest upgrade of the off season for the off-season.  So Scheme being a lot better

 

2. Younger, more athletic OL players 

 

3. Howell being slightly better than Wentz and TH.

 

All together will make a big improvement.

[philibusters]

13 hours ago, Chris 44 said:

I can easily see 3-3 in the division (not exactly going out on a limb there). I'm not as high on Dallas as a lot of people, I think Dak has regressed and think it shows up this year. If Sam can limit the mistakes (turnovers) this team will be in every game.

 

I think Philly is more likely to regress than Dallas.  I think Dallas will be similar to the past couple years, top 12ish team in the NFL.  I think Dallas has had a good offseaon.  Stephon Gilmore is a legit top 10 CB they added, Brandon Cooks is a legit 2 WR, and I am not sure what Mazi  Smith will address one of their weaknesses on D, the interior of the D-Line.  They get back their top O-Line, Tyron Smith who was lost for the season in the preseason (though in fairness he gets injured a lot).  I have heard a couple people say they expect Dallas to take a step back, but I don't see it.  Its true Dak had a bad year last year, but he had a relatively down year last year, if he regresses to his mean, he gets better not worse.

[Koolblue13]

6 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Turner also did a horrendously awful job trying to do anything to help the OL. The entire season.

 

His attempt to help the protection was to run the ball and use slow developing play action.

 

I think EB is going to protect the OL a lot better.

 

And with any luck at all, Howell is a little better at getting the ball out than either Wentz or TH.  
 

It all works together. My hope is the combination of:

 

1. EB not being an idiot, which is the biggest upgrade of the off season for the off-season.  So Scheme being a lot better

 

2. Younger, more athletic OL players 

 

3. Howell being slightly better than Wentz and TH.

 

All together will make a big improvement.

Rewatching this game (rewatched the Eagles game yesterday), the problem on offense is 100% on the Oline. Nick Martin being terrible, along with Turner and Norwell. Guys get through with little to no contact and when they do block for runs, holding penalties bring it back. 

 

The "slow developing plays" are really prevalent when Wentz wasn't the QB.   I'm not trying to defend Turner or Wentz, but the problem is certainly the Oline.

 

I don't love the moves we made for the Oline this offseason, but dear god was this line awful last year.

 

I like how Turner is calling this game. Equal run/pass ratio. Spreading it around. Lots of quick screens that aren't getting blocked to well. Trying to get some rhythm. 

 

I'm glad that you have faith in a guy who's never called a game or schemed anything on his own, but that's not an automatic upgrade.

Also, I think this secondary is going to be special. I also think we're going to see a ton of 5-1-5 defenses.

 

Davis is not great and no Holcomb is going to hurt.

[mhd24]

6 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

Rewatching this game (rewatched the Eagles game yesterday), the problem on offense is 100% on the Oline. Nick Martin being terrible, along with Turner and Norwell. Guys get through with little to no contact and when they do block for runs, holding penalties bring it back. 

 

The "slow developing plays" are really prevalent when Wentz wasn't the QB.   I'm not trying to defend Turner or Wentz, but the problem is certainly the Oline.

 

I don't love the moves we made for the Oline this offseason, but dear god was this line awful last year.

 

I like how Turner is calling this game. Equal run/pass ratio. Spreading it around. Lots of quick screens that aren't getting blocked to well. Trying to get some rhythm. 

 

I'm glad that you have faith in a guy who's never called a game or schemed anything on his own, but that's not an automatic upgrade.

Also, I think this secondary is going to be special. I also think we're going to see a ton of 5-1-5 defenses.

 

Davis is not great and no Holcomb is going to hurt.

Disagree on Holcomb being a massive loss.  Dude could never shed blocks in the run game.  Bostic (ugh) was actually an improvement in that area to my eyes.  Of course Bostic can't cover worth anything, but no was was Holcomb worth the contract he got.  

[Koolblue13]

2 minutes ago, mhd24 said:

Disagree on Holcomb being a massive loss.  Dude could never shed blocks in the run game.  Bostic (ugh) was actually an improvement in that area to my eyes.  Of course Bostic can't cover worth anything, but no was was Holcomb worth the contract he got.  

Holcomb got an average LBer salary.

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

some other stuff.  Interesting that Sharp called out the O line 2 years ago when PFF ranked them well as fools gold. 

 

 

Edited July 10, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Chris 44]

15 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

That assessment is brutal. Ranked 20th at reciever?

[Skinsinparadise]

3 minutes ago, Chris 44 said:

That assessment is brutal. Ranked 20th at reciever?

 

Going on pure production we just have one major WR.  they don't have that 2nd WR with numbers like some other teams, do

 

While fans (me included) see Dotston as a future 80 catch, 1000 yard guy.  But last year he was a 35 catch, 500 yards plus guy.  So pedestrian production wise because of injury and pure Qb play.  

 

Personally I think its tough half of the league but I get the numbers guy aren't sold until the numbers actually come in.

 

Some more below from Sharp

 

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

14 minutes ago, Chris 44 said:

That assessment is brutal. Ranked 20th at reciever?

Sharp also uses Vegas over/unders as a component to strength of schedule.

 

I like him in general but there are flaws in his analytical approach. 
 

as I pointed out in an earlier post, Vegas got 1/3 of the league wrong by more than 3 games.  Since Sharp uses that as a component to SoS, his SoS number is crap.  Is it better than using last year’s winning percentage? Maybe? Maybe not? Is there anything better? Probably not?
 

I haven’t looked at all of his analytics, and I rather like him more than a lot of other talking head idiots.  
 

All of these guys are doing what I have come to believe is basically impossible: predict the unpredictable.  The NFL is just not predictable year over year, even week over week.  And opinions are like noses: everybody’s got one.  

[Skinsinparadise]

The lack of urgency point is one I've stressed.  It's the main reason why i am out on him unless he has a surprise big year.  I and @Koolblue13 used to say last year, its an off season away from a going for the kill off season.  But alas, both of us are surprised that the go for the kill approach never came.

 

I'd add a number 4 to things I don't like. -- his mediocre seasons are also boring -- non-sexy approach in everything he does.   In short, his approach doesn't put butts in the seats.  

 

 

 

Edited July 10, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

13 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Sharp also uses Vegas over/unders as a component to strength of schedule.

 

I like him in general but there are flaws in his analytical approach. 
 

as I pointed out in an earlier post, Vegas got 1/3 of the league wrong by more than 3 games.  Since Sharp uses that as a component to SoS, his SoS number is crap.  Is it better than using last year’s winning percentage? Maybe? Maybe not? Is there anything better? Probably not?
 

I haven’t looked at all of his analytics, and I rather like him more than a lot of other talking head idiots.  
 

All of these guys are doing what I have come to believe is basically impossible: predict the unpredictable.  The NFL is just not predictable year over year, even week over week.  And opinions are like noses: everybody’s got one.  

 

Sharp's level of detail is insane.  I haven't posted any of his graphs.  I usually take a week or so to digest his takes.  He goes into everything from tendencies on you name it to what O lineman do they run the best behind.

 

He also spends a ton of time on match ups-schedules.

 

We've kind of been at war with PFF-Warren Sharp, Football Outsiders in part because of their slamming of Wentz in the previous off season.  Sharp doubles down on it here.  Heck I recall some of his videos blasting the Wentz move.  Came off nasty at the time. 😢. But until they get it wrong and we all get it right, tough for me to ridicule them for that take. 

 

I sort of played it in the middle on Wentz.  I understood the gamble.  I hated the compensation for the trade  -- I thought they got ripped off. (I was right about that).  But i also thought the national media-analytics types were off the top harsh on Wentz.  I was wrong about that -- heck Wentz was even worse than those guys painted him.    

 

I've listened to Sharp and the PFF guys and the Football Outsiders guys on the radio on and off for years.  I don't think they came off like they believe they have the perfect model to predict seasons.  Sharp is more into gambiling than the other outfits, so he gives it a try. 

 

i find the dude that is most unfair is Aaron Schatz from Football Outsiders.  He hates Snyder and seems to think Rivera is a bit of a an old school dinosaur as to roster building-coaching so he likes to tee off at this team in this yearly previews.  Page 1 of their preview of this team seems to be a diatribe mostly on Dan. 

 

Sharp is a bit more tame but its not hard to see he's not much of a fan of Rivera. 

Edited July 10, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Voice_of_Reason]

9 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Going on pure production we just have one major WR.  they don't have that 2nd WR with numbers like some other teams, do

We also had Wentz and TH playing QB, an OC who was a slave to his system and a bad OL.

 

This is where analytics have a really difficult time distinguishing cause and effect.  

[Voice_of_Reason]

2 hours ago, Koolblue13 said:

Rewatching this game (rewatched the Eagles game yesterday), the problem on offense is 100% on the Oline. Nick Martin being terrible, along with Turner and Norwell. Guys get through with little to no contact and when they do block for runs, holding penalties bring it back. 

 

The "slow developing plays" are really prevalent when Wentz wasn't the QB.   I'm not trying to defend Turner or Wentz, but the problem is certainly the Oline.

 

I don't love the moves we made for the Oline this offseason, but dear god was this line awful last year.

 

I like how Turner is calling this game. Equal run/pass ratio. Spreading it around. Lots of quick screens that aren't getting blocked to well. Trying to get some rhythm. 

 

I'm glad that you have faith in a guy who's never called a game or schemed anything on his own, but that's not an automatic upgrade.

Also, I think this secondary is going to be special. I also think we're going to see a ton of 5-1-5 defenses.

 

Davis is not great and no Holcomb is going to hurt.

Every OC has to start somewhere with play calling.  A lot of coaches off the Reid tree have done exceptionally well and they didn’t have play calling duties.  Pederson is the prime example, but there are others.  Actually, Reid himself was the Packer’s QB coach when he got the job in Philly.

 

EB had a ton of play design and game plan responsibilities.  I’m not worried. I think he’s going to be a huge upgrade.  I also think a 3 year dead cat might have been an upgrade.  But I like the way the Reid offense stretches the field and gets the ball out quickly.  I think that’s going to help everybody assuming Howell can actually pull it off.  
 

I went back and watched/categorizes a number of games. There was so much Run-Run-pray because now we’re in known passing situation with crap OL it should have landed Scott Turner in a Gulag in Russia.  Just horrendous play organization and game management.  He somehow managed to accentuate the weaknesses and minimize the strengths.  
 

Until proven otherwise, I’m going to go with EB is going to be a huge upgrade based on his pedigree.  

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

We also had Wentz and TH playing QB, an OC who was a slave to his system and a bad OL.

 

This is where analytics have a really difficult time distinguishing cause and effect.  

 

I mentioned that.  But they aren't ranking the team in a vacuum.  They are doing it head to head with other teams.  Do you grade potential production > actual production.

 

This team has a lot of variables like that. A lot of what ifs.  More than some teams IMO. I for example like Brian Robinson's potential a lot.  But considering he had a below 4 YPC, I get the national types not buying into him as a stud, yet. 

 

Also the anayltics types value run blocking highly in the context of RBs and they don't seem sold on this O line.  I get it neither am I. 

 

Again, i think the national media, anayltics types, Vegas are too harsh on this team's prospects.  They envision a bad team.  i envision a so so team.  But will see.  It's not like the national media-Vegas is always wrong about this team.  If I recall looking at the stats you posted, Vegas nailed it on this team last year.

 

Nonethless, my opinion on this team has nothing to do with what others think.  But i do think the narrative of how little these guys think of the team is interesting albiet doesn't matter clearly to the botttom line.  Sheehan was talking about it on his show today.  It's interesting to me if by chance the national media is right considering the backdrop with Dan leaving -- how much could they keep fan momentum if they had a crap season?  Personally, I think it might not be easy to keep momentum if its a mediocre season but will see.

4 hours ago, Koolblue13 said:

Rewatching this game (rewatched the Eagles game yesterday), the problem on offense is 100% on the Oline. Nick Martin being terrible, along with Turner and Norwell. Guys get through with little to no contact and when they do block for runs, holding penalties bring it back. 

 

The "slow developing plays" are really prevalent when Wentz wasn't the QB.   I'm not trying to defend Turner or Wentz, but the problem is certainly the Oline.

 

I don't love the moves we made for the Oline this offseason, but dear god was this line awful last year.

 

I like how Turner is calling this game. Equal run/pass ratio. Spreading it around. Lots of quick screens that aren't getting blocked to well. Trying to get some rhythm. 

 

I'm glad that you have faith in a guy who's never called a game or schemed anything on his own, but that's not an automatic upgrade.

Also, I think this secondary is going to be special. I also think we're going to see a ton of 5-1-5 defenses.

 

Davis is not great and no Holcomb is going to hurt.

 

I am slowly rewatching the Atlanta game with coaches tape.  I am only a few drives into it but you can see crap run blocking, across the board on the O line. 

Edited July 10, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Conn]

Thought you all might enjoy knowing that Joe Barry is still terrorizing NFL fanbases. Bewildering hire ever time he’s been hired in the last decade. 

[HTTSkins]

19 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

This dude touts himself as a game handicapper and has over 25,000 followers.

 

I am not pessimistic like he is among orhers. But the worst team in the NFL takes the cake. Plenty of others expect them to be bad but I think he’s the first projecting them to be the worst 

 

He'a a bum

[Skinsinparadise]

Ranking the NFL's best players at every position for 2023: Execs, coaches, scouts pick their top 10 at every position

8. Daron Payne, Washington Commanders

Highest ranking: 2 | Lowest ranking: Unranked
Age: 26 | Last year's ranking: Unranked

As Payne's name circulated at last year's trade deadline, the Commanders were smart not to indulge. They knew they had an elite player.

Payne's 21.5 disrupted dropbacks -- a combination of sacks, interceptions, batted/tipped/defended passes -- ranked second among defensive tackles behind Jones (23) and tied for seventh among all positions. His 11.5-sack season earned him a four-year, $90 million extension with the club.

"I always thought since I studied him that he has the most talent out of all of those linemen [on the Commanders]," an NFC exec said. "He has a great combination of talent and football intelligence. And he matured and came into his own last year."

An AFC scout added: "He has everything -- power, explosion, can stop run or pass. Probably a bit underrated at this point."

 

10. Jonathan Allen, Washington Commanders

Highest ranking: 4 | Lowest ranking: Unranked
Age: 28 | Last year's ranking: 10

It's no coincidence that Allen, coming off back-to-back Pro Bowls and 16.5 sacks over the past two years, has also landed in our top 10 both times.

Appreciation for his game had been overdue leading up to last year.

"Low-key elite," an AFC executive said. "Powerful, can take over a game in both phases. Super impactful and honestly makes life for Payne easy."

Allen was double-teamed on pass rushes at the second-highest rate of any player in the NFL last season (67%), behind Bills defensive tackle DaQuan Jones.

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/insider/story/_/id/37773470/ranking-nfl-top-10-ball-linebackers-2023-execs-coaches-players-make-their-picks-best-linebackers

 

So far just edge, DT, and LB.  These who we had ranked in those spots.

 

[FootballZombie]

5 hours ago, Chris 44 said:

That assessment is brutal. Ranked 20th at reciever?

 

 

"Recievers" is probably tying in on our TE situation as well. That's a lead weight right there. We might have been able to score a little better rating if it was just our WRs.

[Skinsinparadise]

On 7/9/2023 at 12:18 PM, Koolblue13 said:

 

 

I really ****ing hate Heinicke. I hope he's starting when we play Atlanta so I can watch Payne pummel him.

 

Inspired after reading your post?  i might go to that Atlanta game, that would be fun to see....

 

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

Some rare National love 

 

 

[Conn]

Hard to disagree with the logic, you just have to hope that the players/units in question blossom to their unknown upside for things to turn out differently 

[Rocky21]

18 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

How in the **** do we have the 4th worst RB room in the entire league?!

[Chris 44]

22 minutes ago, Rocky21 said:

How in the **** do we have the 4th worst RB room in the entire league?!

He mentioned lack of explosion at the position (Robinson and Rodriguez) but fails to mention Gibson who will feature as the in space type back this year. Plus Im sure there will be receivers utilized as an extension to the run.

[Skinsinparadise]

10 hours ago, Conn said:

Hard to disagree with the logic, you just have to hope that the players/units in question blossom to their unknown upside for things to turn out differently 

 

He made the same logic I did as to production versus potential.  You can't pick real nuimbers below potential numbers that easily.  Not yet.  I am maybe one of the biggest Dotson's fans on the board.  But I don't expect the rest of the league to evaluate him as a 1000 yard receiver when he was a 500 yard receiver.  I get context matters but still you have WRs who actually did it regardless of context.  And we aren't the only team with players where the argument exists that hey if you knew this or that you'd judge the player higher.  I think next year it changes. 

 

Antonio Gibson had a 3.7 YPC last year.  Robinson at 3.9.  Those aren't stud like numbers.  I do think their issues (I  am a big fan of both players) is the run blocking.  But if you are the typical anayltics guy (including Sharp) you don't expect the poor run blocking to improve much.

 

He's also not high on Ron Rivera.

 

So as the full package, his explanation makes sense.  I think they are going to do a little better than he expects but his explanations are fine.  He dives really deep into this roster and schedule so for those who agree or disagree -- they can't say he didn't dive in deep to form his opinion. 

Edited July 11, 2023 by Skinsinparadise