Est.1974 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 BPA has to be the way on day 2, even into the top of the 4th. After that I don’t mind a few flyers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Koolblue13 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Top of the 2nd is usually where the LBer run starts and I think there's possibly 5 that could go early day two. I want one. Some of these OTs and JPJ could easily slide out of the first round. I think more WRs and DBs are going to go in the first and push these other guys down. I love the idea of JPJ or Brian Thomas or Robinson at 36, but the trade back could be too good to pass on and there is a ton of day one starters in the top 100 or so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warhead36 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I don't see anyway JPJ falls to 36. He's getting first round buzz. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Koolblue13 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 minutes ago, Warhead36 said: I don't see anyway JPJ falls to 36. He's getting first round buzz. While you're probably right and I think it's a long shot, but if he gets past the Steelers at 20, there won't be a lot of center needy teams, but there will be CB and WR needy teams. I also think some more edge guys are going to work their way up draft boards. Center in the first is rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bantu Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Warhead36 said: I don't see anyway JPJ falls to 36. He's getting first round buzz. The hope is that a few QBs in the tiers below the top 3 sneak into the first, along with a run on CBs that could facilitate a fall for guys like JPJ and the OT from Arizona, etc. The 2nd & 3rd rounds, if they keep all of their picks is going to be really interesting. Edited February 16 by Bantu 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrFan Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Discriminant Function Analysis Reveals Which Combination of Measures from the NFL scouting Combine Predict NFL Performance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Going Commando Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 hours ago, FrFan said: Discriminant Function Analysis Reveals Which Combination of Measures from the NFL scouting Combine Predict NFL Performance Looks like almost all of the findings in this are totally obvious and familiar to even laymen observers like us, but I suppose science requires evidence based proofs to define things fully understood by conventional/trade wisdom. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlayAction Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 5 hours ago, Going Commando said: We just need to go BPA at each of our picks and let the draft come to us. If we do that, we're going to get like five really good players and have a monster class that sets the foundation for our roster for years. That is the goal for every draft. My favorite hypothetical classes don't focus on position, but focus on specific players where we get great value on good prospects. Jordan Morgan, Graham Barton, or Bralen Trice in the second round. Cooper Beebe, Sedrick Van Pran, Peyton Wilson, or Audric Estime in the third. Ladd McConkey, Mike Sainristil, or Keon Coleman in the late second. Situations where we get prospects half a round to a round later than they should go. That's when you have your best picks and find those foundation pieces, like what happened with Cosmi and Jon Allen and McLaurin. BPA is a good philosophy but if the board suggests 2 WR and a pass-catching TE with the first three picks, I want them to trade out of those spots! You have these guys as possibilities in the second round: Morgan OT, Barton OT, Trice DE, McConkey WR, Sainristil CB, and Coleman WR. I am guessing that a first round OT will slip to the top of the second round. Then I have WR, DE, LB or CB for the remaining three picks in the 2/3 rounds. I think we will end up in the same place in this draft - not in the same order but the positions filled. I'm not advocating any huge reach for any player, but I don't want an excess of one position or a DT that won't have the opportunity to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Always A Commander Never A Captain Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 7 hours ago, Going Commando said: He had the opposite strengths and weaknesses of Morgan. He was a fabulous run blocker who was weak in pass pro. That is a future NFL guard's skill set. Morgan is much more like Slater, where the reason he's a first round pick is almost entirely about his pass pro. He could play guard, but that's wasting the special lateral athleticism. Hmm, I think I recall that now about Bergeron as a prospect as well. I believe Slater's performance has fallen off a little since his stellar rookie introduction. But that's just word of mouth, I'm not sure I watched a Charger's game all season. I haven't seen Morgan play, but I hope I am as pleasantly surprised as you are about his abilities. I will say that Morgan's lack of arm length not being a problem when handling Latu well doesn't mean as much since Latu is one of the Edges with even shorter arms than Morgan has. I will be neutral in regards to Morgan being an OT or Guard until I've actually watched him though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrFan Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 (edited) 2 hours ago, Going Commando said: Looks like almost all of the findings in this are totally obvious and familiar to even laymen observers like us, but I suppose science requires evidence based proofs to define things fully understood by conventional/trade wisdom. Not all science : In a 2008 paper in the Journal of Strength and Conditioning Research, Kuzmits and Adam wrote that "using correlation analysis, we find no consistent statistical relationship between combine tests and professional football performance, with the notable exception of sprint tests for running backs." Edited February 16 by FrFan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThatNFLChick Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Steve Smith Rating the WRs in the Draft 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Curtisp5286 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 11 hours ago, Koolblue13 said: Top of the 2nd is usually where the LBer run starts and I think there's possibly 5 that could go early day two. I want one. Some of these OTs and JPJ could easily slide out of the first round. I think more WRs and DBs are going to go in the first and push these other guys down. I love the idea of JPJ or Brian Thomas or Robinson at 36, but the trade back could be too good to pass on and there is a ton of day one starters in the top 100 or so. 11 hours ago, Warhead36 said: I don't see anyway JPJ falls to 36. He's getting first round buzz. I kind of doubt that they go for a C early. Stromberg was a 3rd round pick just a year ago. I would think that they probably give him a shot, and focus on getting OT early in this year’s draft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Going Commando Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 8 hours ago, FrFan said: Not all science : In a 2008 paper in the Journal of Strength and Conditioning Research, Kuzmits and Adam wrote that "using correlation analysis, we find no consistent statistical relationship between combine tests and professional football performance, with the notable exception of sprint tests for running backs." Looks like some scientists are better at science than others. You also have to love the amount of work by four very smart people that went into justifying the conclusion "the tade experts pretty much have it right." I'd say their analysis yielded some useful guidelines though. It can't hurt to have a guide for which drills are the most relevant for each position, and they were able to discover that certain drills almost completely lacked relevance for certain positions, which is useful. What would be amazing is if their study could come up with a way to accurately predict draft stock beyond "this player will very likely be drafted." We already know that much about like 200+ players every year, just from doing things the normal way. They talked about how they couldn't measure cognitive ability and personality in their study. The NFL does this though, not scientifically, but effectively. And not via testing like the Wonderlic or S2. Figuring out football IQ and competitive grit is probably the single biggest judgement/endeavor of scouting, and it's where the most intuitive and experienced scouts can separate from the field. It's about as big a factor in successful roster building as teaching ability, holistic long term planning, cultural stability, etc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrFan Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 (edited) 2 hours ago, Going Commando said: Looks like some scientists are better at science than others. You also have to love the amount of work by four very smart people that went into justifying the conclusion "the tade experts pretty much have it right." I'd say their analysis yielded some useful guidelines though. It can't hurt to have a guide for which drills are the most relevant for each position, and they were able to discover that certain drills almost completely lacked relevance for certain positions, which is useful. What would be amazing is if their study could come up with a way to accurately predict draft stock beyond "this player will very likely be drafted." We already know that much about like 200+ players every year, just from doing things the normal way. They talked about how they couldn't measure cognitive ability and personality in their study. The NFL does this though, not scientifically, but effectively. And not via testing like the Wonderlic or S2. Figuring out football IQ and competitive grit is probably the single biggest judgement/endeavor of scouting, and it's where the most intuitive and experienced scouts can separate from the field. It's about as big a factor in successful roster building as teaching ability, holistic long term planning, cultural stability, etc. I want to trust this FO, so far they're nailing it all across the board. If I'm not mistaken the final piece of the puzzle will be added after the draft when they'll be able to beef up the scouting department. I'd like to hear this FO about the draft selection, especially when scouts' evaluations are split 50/50 about a player. What is their grading system ? How do they value certain traits over others such as stats, character, game film, football IQ, strength,...... For example if they're split between a physical "freak" with below average football IQ and an average physical player with a superior football IQ. Edited February 17 by FrFan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chump Bailey Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 *Perhaps the deepest position of the 2024 draft IMO Top Draftable OG’s (to my eyes) 1. Zak Zinter Michigan 2. Troy Fautanu Washington 3. Cooper Beebee Kansas State 4. Christian Mahogony Boston College *Underrated 5. Christian Haynes UConn 6. Javion Cohen Miami 7. Layden Robinson Texas A&M 8. Brandon Coleman TCU 9. Dominick Puni Kansas 10. Sataoa Laumea Utah 11. Mason McCormick South Dakota State 12. Keaton Bills Utah *Underrated 13. Matthew Jones Ohio State *Underrated 14. Kenneth Horsey Kentucky *Underrated 15. K.T. Levenston Kansas State 16. Doug Nester West Virginia *Underrated also can play RT very well IMO 17. C.J. Hanson Holy Cross 18. Trevor Keegan Michigan 19. Clark Barrington Baylor 20. Corey Bullock Maryland 21. XZauvea Gadlin Liberty 22. Isaiah Adams Illinois 23. Elijah Klein UTEP 24. Kyle Hergel Boston College 25. McKade Mettauer Oklahoma 26. Brady Latham Arkansas 27. Jarrett Kingston USC *Underrated especially for zone blocking schemes 28. Xavier Delgado Missouri 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Koolblue13 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 10 minutes ago, Chump Bailey said: *Perhaps the deepest position of the 2024 draft IMO Top Draftable OG’s (to my eyes) 1. Zak Zinter Michigan 2. Troy Fautanu Washington 3. Cooper Beebee Kansas State 4. Christian Mahogony Boston College *Underrated 5. Christian Haynes UConn 6. Javion Cohen Miami 7. Layden Robinson Texas A&M 8. Brandon Coleman TCU 9. Dominick Puni Kansas 10. Sataoa Laumea Utah 11. Mason McCormick South Dakota State 12. Keaton Bills Utah *Underrated 13. Matthew Jones Ohio State *Underrated 14. Kenneth Horsey Kentucky *Underrated 15. K.T. Levenston Kansas State 16. Doug Nester West Virginia *Underrated also can play RT very well IMO 17. C.J. Hanson Holy Cross 18. Trevor Keegan Michigan 19. Clark Barrington Baylor 20. Corey Bullock Maryland 21. XZauvea Gadlin Liberty 22. Isaiah Adams Illinois 23. Elijah Klein UTEP 24. Kyle Hergel Boston College 25. McKade Mettauer Oklahoma 26. Brady Latham Arkansas 27. Jarrett Kingston USC *Underrated especially for zone blocking schemes 28. Xavier Delgado Missouri Isn't Zinter recovering from a pretty serious injury? I've seen him everywhere from 30 to 120. Hoping he can be a day 3 steal and injury redshirt. I'd have Beebe at 1 personally. I think he's the best OL in the draft. Maybe close or equal with JPJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chump Bailey Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Just now, Koolblue13 said: Isn't Zinter recovering from a pretty serious injury? I've seen him everywhere from 30 to 120. Hoping he can be a day 3 steal and injury redshirt. Yes, but he appears to be well on his way to a full recovery and is walking without crutches from what I read. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Koolblue13 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 2 minutes ago, Chump Bailey said: Yes, but he appears to be well on his way to a full recovery and is walking without crutches from what I read. That's good to hear. Mahogany is another guy I rarely see going before day 3, but with the talent in the top 100/120 this year, it could still happen. This draft is made for us. I really enjoy your lists also. Gives me new guys to look at. Thanks for doing them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chump Bailey Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said: I'd have Beebe at 1 personally. I think he's the best OL in the draft. Maybe close or equal with JPJ. It was very tough for me to rank Beebee, Mahogany, Zinter & Fautanu. They are obviously very, very good. I'm thinking Mahogany is my favorite though even though he is not #1. Zinter's combination of power and agility to me are the reason why he is #1. Edited February 17 by Chump Bailey 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chump Bailey Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 15 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said: That's good to hear. Mahogany is another guy I rarely see going before day 3, but with the talent in the top 100/120 this year, it could still happen. This draft is made for us. I really enjoy your lists also. Gives me new guys to look at. Thanks for doing them. Thanks KB! Much appreciate the kind words. It helps take my mind off things that suck 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Koolblue13 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 (edited) 14 minutes ago, Chump Bailey said: Thanks KB! Much appreciate the kind words. It helps take my mind off things that suck Did you do a LBer one yet? Especially off ball MLB/ILB types? I realized the other day that not only are we getting (hopefully) the QB and leader of our offense for the next decade+, but potentially the same thing on defense. I'm going to start watching the top 4/5 LBers soon. I'm stoked about this. Possibly from the same school as well. Edited February 17 by Koolblue13 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chump Bailey Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 (edited) 3 hours ago, Koolblue13 said: Did you do a LBer one yet? Especially off ball MLB/ILB types? Sure did. I do most of this early before Senior & Shrine Bowls and Combine to test myself. I'll repost later with some revisions but off the top of my head, I really liked the UCLA LB Muasau. Here you go KB. I'll revise later. Well, it's an incomplete version it seems but something to go by. Top 20 ILB’s Tommy Eichenberg Ohio State 1. Cedric Gray UNC 2. Trevin Wallace Kentucky 3. Ty’Ron Hopper Missouri 4. Jeremiah Trotter Jr. 5. Darius Muasau UCLA *Best closing speed to my eyes 6. Jaylan Ford Texas 7. Junior Colson Michigan 8. Smael Mondon Jr. Georgia 9. Jay Higgins Iowa 10. Tyrice Knight UTEP 11. Tyreem Powell Rutgers 12. MJ Tafisi Utah State 13. Tatum Bethune Florida State 14. Johnny Hodges TCU *Injured 15. Steele Chambers Ohio State 16. Jason Henderson Old Dominion *Outstanding reaction timing 17. Power Echols North Carolina 18. Dallas Gant Toledo 19. Omar Speights LSU 20. David Ubenda Texas *Sleepers/Risers Cal Haladay Michigan State Nathaniel Watson Mississippi State Edefuan Ulofoshio Washington *Could be a very good UFDA signing, injuries plagued him Daniel Green Kansas State *Could be a very good UFDA signing Marist Liufau ILB Notre Dame *Needs to test well to rise Top 20 OLB’s 1. Payton Wilson NC State 2. Edgerrin Cooper Texas A&M *His teammate LB#21 Taurean York Freshman is going to be as good if not better IMO 3. Aaron Casey Indiana 4. Collin Oliver Oklahoma State 5. Javon Solomon Troy *More EDGE but very capable off-ball too IMO 6. Curtis Jacobs Penn State 7. Steve Linton Texas Tech 8. C.J. Goetz Wisconsin *Underrated 9. Tyree Dupree Liberty 10. Jett Johnson Mississippi State 11. Sidney Houston Jr. Ball State * More EDGE but very capable off-ball too IMO 12. Jamoi Hodge TCU 13. Jacob Mangum-Farrar Indiana 14. Aaron Beasley Tennessee 15. Ruben Hyppolite II Maryland 16. Kalen DeLoach Florida State 17. Eugene Asante Auburn 18. Marlowe Wax Syracuse 19. Edefuan Ulofoshio Washington 20. JD Bertrand Notre Dame *Risers perhaps Ron Stone Jr. Washington State * More EDGE but very capable off-ball too IMO Jacoby Windmon Michigan State *More EDGE but very capable off-ball too IMO Matt Jones Baylor *Underrated IMO Aaron Brule Michigan State Byron Vaughns Baylor Francisco Mauigoa Miami *Junior Alphonzo Tuputala Washington *Junior Edited February 17 by Chump Bailey 3 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Koolblue13 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 6 minutes ago, Chump Bailey said: Sure did. I do most of this early before Senior & Shrine Bowls and Combine to test myself. I'll repost later with some revisions but off the top of my head, I really liked the UCLA LB Muasau. Here you go KB. I'll revise later. Top 20 ILB’s Tommy Eichenberg Ohio State 1. Cedric Gray UNC 2. Trevin Wallace Kentucky 3. Ty’Ron Hopper Missouri 4. Jeremiah Trotter Jr. 5. Darius Muasau UCLA *Best closing speed to my eyes 6. Jaylan Ford Texas 7. Junior Colson Michigan 8. Smael Mondon Jr. Georgia 9. Jay Higgins Iowa 10. Tyrice Knight UTEP 11. Tyreem Powell Rutgers 12. MJ Tafisi Utah State 13. Tatum Bethune Florida State 14. Johnny Hodges TCU *Injured 15. Steele Chambers Ohio State 16. Jason Henderson Old Dominion *Outstanding reaction timing 17. Power Echols North Carolina 18. Dallas Gant Toledo 19. Omar Speights LSU 20. David Ubenda Texas *Sleepers/Risers Cal Haladay Michigan State Nathaniel Watson Mississippi State Edefuan Ulofoshio Washington *Could be a very good UFDA signing, injuries plagued him Daniel Green Kansas State *Could be a very good UFDA signing Marist Liufau ILB Notre Dame *Needs to test well to rise Top 20 OLB’s 1. Payton Wilson NC State 2. Edgerrin Cooper Texas A&M *His teammate LB#21 Taurean York Freshman is going to be as good if not better IMO 3. Aaron Casey Indiana 4. Collin Oliver Oklahoma State 5. Javon Solomon Troy *More EDGE but very capable off-ball too IMO 6. Curtis Jacobs Penn State 7. Steve Linton Texas Tech 8. C.J. Goetz Wisconsin *Underrated 9. Tyree Dupree Liberty 10. Jett Johnson Mississippi State 11. Sidney Houston Jr. Ball State * More EDGE but very capable off-ball too IMO 12. Jamoi Hodge TCU 13. Jacob Mangum-Farrar Indiana 14. Aaron Beasley Tennessee 15. Ruben Hyppolite II Maryland 16. Darius Muasau UCLA 17. Kalen DeLoach Florida State 18. Eugene Asante Auburn 19. Marlowe Wax Syracuse 20. Edefuan Ulofoshio Washington *Risers perhaps Ron Stone Jr. Washington State * More EDGE but very capable off-ball too IMO Jacoby Windmon Michigan State *More EDGE but very capable off-ball too IMO Matt Jones Baylor *Underrated IMO Aaron Brule Michigan State Byron Vaughns Baylor JD Bertrand Notre Dame Francisco Mauigoa Miami *Junior Alphonzo Tuputala Washington *Junior That's awesome. Thanks man. I'm really hoping for a day two LBer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DWinzit Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 16 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said: That's awesome. Thanks man. I'm really hoping for a day two LBer. Absolutely! I also think they will gather more day three picks through minor trade downs to add more Edge, LB's and DB's. @Chump Bailey all or your work is appreciated. Like Kool, I look forward to all the LB discussions and grades. This isn't a great class up front but there are a bunch of day 2 and 3 gems. Mausau had a solid college career and has some great qualities. Ken Norton is also well versed with him. While his height might be an issue, I worry more about his speed. What's up with no love for the ND LBs, they don't even make the top 20s lists? Makes you look like a hater.... Just kidding, I am not a big ND fan but those two I see as decent. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Koolblue13 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Watching UNC vs SC right now. Maye, Gray, XL, Knox. Lots of guys I'm high on in this game. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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