MartinC Posted June 7, 2023 Share Posted June 7, 2023 10 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said: You gotta stop with this. Nobody is running 1 LBer and an extra DB as a base or a normal package or they'd just get run on all day. We did last year. A lot. In 2021 we were in base 4-3 on 16% of snaps. We were in nickel on 67% of snaps. When in nickel last year we started replacing a backer with either Curl or sometimes Forrest - I think @Skinsinparadise ran some stats on this in another thread. Base is nickel. Most NFL offenses are in 11 personnel most of the time - defenses match up. Teams play almost as much dime coverage as true 4-3 or 3-4 base. These snaps are logged and the numbers are what they are. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2022/2021-defensive-personnel-cowboys-and-bills-abandon-base 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skinsinparadise Posted June 7, 2023 Share Posted June 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, MartinC said: We did last year. A lot. In 2021 we were in base 4-3 on 16% of snaps. We were in nickel on 67% of snaps. When in nickel last year we started replacing a backer with either Curl or sometimes Forrest - I think @Skinsinparadise ran some stats on this in another thread. Base is nickel. Most NFL offenses are in 11 personnel most of the time - defenses match up. Teams play almost as much dime coverage as true 4-3 or 3-4 base. These snaps are logged and the numbers are what they are. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2022/2021-defensive-personnel-cowboys-and-bills-abandon-base I recall that. I think that was @Always A Commander Never A Captain ? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Koolblue13 Posted June 7, 2023 Share Posted June 7, 2023 8 minutes ago, MartinC said: We did last year. A lot. In 2021 we were in base 4-3 on 16% of snaps. We were in nickel on 67% of snaps. When in nickel last year we started replacing a backer with either Curl or sometimes Forrest - I think @Skinsinparadise ran some stats on this in another thread. Base is nickel. Most NFL offenses are in 11 personnel most of the time - defenses match up. Teams play almost as much dime coverage as true 4-3 or 3-4 base. These snaps are logged and the numbers are what they are. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2022/2021-defensive-personnel-cowboys-and-bills-abandon-base Yes and 74% of the time we had 2 LBers on the field. TWO LINEBACKERS. Our base is the nickle. 4-2-5. We always have 2 LBers on the field. Sometimes a nickle CB, sometimes that's a safety. Some times that safety is on the line like a backer. Still a DB and still have 2 LBers. The NFL doesn't devalue the LBer position, just because it doesn't center around them. Things chage and there aren't a bunch of newer style LBers, which is why Holcomb is the 20th highest paid LBer. Hell, the article you posted says that teams play base or nickle in over 80% of snaps. That's 2+ LBers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MartinC Posted June 7, 2023 Share Posted June 7, 2023 Just now, Koolblue13 said: Yes and 74% of the time we had 2 LBers on the field. TWO LINEBACKERS. Our base is the nickle. 4-2-5. We always have 2 LBers on the field. Sometimes a nickle CB, sometimes that's a safety. Some times that safety is on the line like a backer. Still a DB and still have 2 LBers. The NFL doesn't devalue the LBer position, just because it doesn't center around them. Things chage and there aren't a bunch of newer style LBers, which is why Holcomb is the 20th highest paid LBer. Do you have source for that 74% - because I have seen stats that show way lower? And we absolutely 100% do not always have two backers on the field in nickel - I'm just not sure what the actual stats are on that though. Someone did cite them in another thread earlier this offseason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Koolblue13 Posted June 7, 2023 Share Posted June 7, 2023 4 minutes ago, MartinC said: Do you have source for that 74% - because I have seen stats that show way lower? And we absolutely 100% do not always have two backers on the field in nickel - I'm just not sure what the actual stats are on that though. Someone did cite them in another thread earlier this offseason. 74% was from the article Always posted a while back. The article you posted says over 80% And yes, we absolutely have 5 DBs and 2 LBers on the field most of the time. That's our Nickle. Off. Def. ST Fantasy Rk G# Date Tm Opp Result Pos Num Pct Num Pct Num Pct FantPt DKPt FDPt Total 0 446 0 1 1 2022-09-11 WAS JAX W 28-22 LB 0 0.0% 70 100.0% 0 0.0% 2 2 2022-09-18 WAS @ DET L 27-36 LB 0 0.0% 61 100.0% 0 0.0% 3 3 2022-09-25 WAS PHI L 8-24 LB 0 0.0% 64 91.4% 0 0.0% 4 4 2022-10-02 WAS @ DAL L 10-25 LB 0 0.0% 61 100.0% 0 0.0% 5 5 2022-10-09 WAS TEN L 17-21 LB 0 0.0% 64 100.0% 0 0.0% 6 6 2022-10-13 WAS @ CHI W 12-7 LB 0 0.0% 72 100.0% 0 0.0% 7 7 2022-10-23 WAS GNB W 23-21 LB 0 0.0% 54 100.0% 0 0.0% Davis was about 70%+ percent before Holcome got hurt and then he was 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MartinC Posted June 7, 2023 Share Posted June 7, 2023 7 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said: 74% was from the article Always posted a while back. The article you posted says over 80% And yes, we absolutely have 5 DBs and 2 LBers on the field most of the time. That's our Nickle. Off. Def. ST Fantasy Rk G# Date Tm Opp Result Pos Num Pct Num Pct Num Pct FantPt DKPt FDPt Total 0 446 0 1 1 2022-09-11 WAS JAX W 28-22 LB 0 0.0% 70 100.0% 0 0.0% 2 2 2022-09-18 WAS @ DET L 27-36 LB 0 0.0% 61 100.0% 0 0.0% 3 3 2022-09-25 WAS PHI L 8-24 LB 0 0.0% 64 91.4% 0 0.0% 4 4 2022-10-02 WAS @ DAL L 10-25 LB 0 0.0% 61 100.0% 0 0.0% 5 5 2022-10-09 WAS TEN L 17-21 LB 0 0.0% 64 100.0% 0 0.0% 6 6 2022-10-13 WAS @ CHI W 12-7 LB 0 0.0% 72 100.0% 0 0.0% 7 7 2022-10-23 WAS GNB W 23-21 LB 0 0.0% 54 100.0% 0 0.0% Davis was about 70%+ percent before Holcome got hurt and then he was 100% You have now gone from "always' 2 backers on the field to 'most of the time'. I'd love to find those stats someone posted a while back - its started when we had some injuries to linebackers around mid season - we started experimenting out of necessity replacing a backer with a safety in nickel. Not all the time by any means but a bit - probably on downs we expected pass. But we started improving and it stuck and became something we did more. I cant recall the percentages though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Koolblue13 Posted June 7, 2023 Share Posted June 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, MartinC said: You have now gone from "always' 2 backers on the field to 'most of the time'. I'd love to find those stats someone posted a while back - its started when we had some injuries to linebackers around mid season - we started experimenting out of necessity replacing a backer with a safety in nickel. Not all the time by any means but a bit - probably on downs we expected pass. But we started improving and it stuck and became something we did more. I cant recall the percentages though. You'll have to point out where I said that we "always" have two LBers, because I can't find it. When Holcomb went down, so did Curl. When everyone was healthy, we ran 2 LBers most of the time. 3/4 of all plays had two LBers. Nobody is running a base with 1 LBer. Stop pretending that's a thing. Certainly not us and if a bunch of injuries changed our personnel that's not our base either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
philibusters Posted June 7, 2023 Share Posted June 7, 2023 Earlier in this thread I mentioned the idea of trading for Kelvin Beachum. The reasoning was teh Cardinals may be willing to trade him because he is 34 years old and they already have two Tackles in DJ Humphries and the rookie Parris Johnson Jr. I was listening the to the Off the Charts podcast and they put together a list of top 10 active tackles (so retired guys like Andrew Whitworth were not included) over the past three years based on a formula they came. The formula had a bias for volume over quality (so guys who never get hurt were at an advantage) and it had a slight bias for guys who were good at pass blocking over run blocking. A little bit to their dismay Kelvin Beachum made their top 10. I say a little dismayed because I don't think any of them believe he is a top 10 tackle, but he tends to play almost all the snaps every year and is a good pass blocker and as they said, it is bad science to run numbers then change the formula after you run the numbers because it doesn't match your preconceived notions. They ended up with like three guys I think they would rather not be on the list like Brian O'Neill from the Vikings and Jake Matthews--guys who never miss any snaps. Orlando Brown also finished higher than they would like (#3) partly because his run blocking was so high. They had him with the most value added in terms of of the top 20 Tackles on the list in terms of run blocking mostly built on the 2020 season in Baltimore when Baltimore churned out the rush yards. I surmised that in terms of run blocking, you accumulated points added faster when the team ran behind you and Baltimore ran a lot in 2020 and a lot to the right side where he was the RT. The other thing they mentioned about their list in addition to their regret for making it about 75% volume based and only 25% quality based is it was biased against players like Laremy Tunsil who plays for the Texans a really bad offense that makes it more difficult to get value added points in their metrics. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MartinC Posted June 7, 2023 Share Posted June 7, 2023 32 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said: Our base is the nickle. 4-2-5. We always have 2 LBers on the field. @Koolblue13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Koolblue13 Posted June 7, 2023 Share Posted June 7, 2023 14 minutes ago, MartinC said: @Koolblue13 Okay, I was wrong to say that. We "almost always" have 2 LBers on the field. Close enough. We have less than 2LBers on the field 10% of the time. All those posts correcting you for the 2nd or 3rd time just from me and you found one generalization to point out. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MartinC Posted June 7, 2023 Share Posted June 7, 2023 33 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said: Okay, I was wrong to say that. We "almost always" have 2 LBers on the field. Close enough. We have less than 2LBers on the field 10% of the time. All those posts correcting you for the 2nd or 3rd time just from me and you found one generalization to point out. lol The thing is I don’t agree you are ‘correcting me’. We fundamentally disagree about how NFL defenses are evolving and how the role - and therefore ideal profile - of an NFL linebacker is evolving with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Koolblue13 Posted June 7, 2023 Share Posted June 7, 2023 1 minute ago, MartinC said: The thing is I don’t agree you are ‘correcting me’. We fundamentally disagree about how NFL defenses are evolving and how the role - and therefore ideal profile - of an NFL linebacker is evolving with that. You saying that we use 1 LBer and an extra DB on most plays is wrong. A few people seem to think that's a real thing about the BN. It's not and you keep saying it. If you can find a 6'3" 255 LB that can move like a 6' 225 LBer you get them. That won't change. LBers being more coverage focused doesn't change that. The going rate for a LBer is $5mill per year, because there just isn't a ton of big LBers that can do it. We drafted a 1rst rd LBer, This year there were 3 1rst round LBers, including a top 5 guy. 3 the year before. Ro Smith went for a 2nd and a 5th, We offered Milano a top 5 contract and he turned it down. Nobody is devaluing the LBer position and nobody is running a 1LBer base like you keep saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MartinC Posted June 7, 2023 Share Posted June 7, 2023 17 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said: If you can find a 6'3" 255 LB that can move like a 6' 225 LBer you get them. . Sure. But they are very very few and far between. When you find one you draft him in the first round. Like we did with Davis, although he's like 235 not 255. Teams need backers who can run, operate in space and cover. Average weight of an NFL linebacker is currently 240lbs - and that weight is trending down. Only two of the top 10 drafted backers this year weighed over 240 and four were 230 or less. You can keep denying it as much as you like - but NFL linebackers are getting smaller, faster - and fewer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Koolblue13 Posted June 7, 2023 Share Posted June 7, 2023 1 hour ago, MartinC said: Sure. But they are very very few and far between. When you find one you draft him in the first round. Like we did with Davis, although he's like 235 not 255. Teams need backers who can run, operate in space and cover. Average weight of an NFL linebacker is currently 240lbs - and that weight is trending down. Only two of the top 10 drafted backers this year weighed over 240 and four were 230 or less. You can keep denying it as much as you like - but NFL linebackers are getting smaller, faster - and fewer. I'm not denying that. Not at all. It's not even the topic of the conversation we were having. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MartinC Posted June 7, 2023 Share Posted June 7, 2023 36 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said: I'm not denying that. Not at all. It's not even the topic of the conversation we were having. It absolutely is. As linebackers gradually start to look more like large safeties, and a safety can do more things and help you disguise coverages more than a linebacker - why not replace that second linebacker with a safety. Certainly on downs were you expect pass. That absolutely has started to happen. Not every nickel snap, not most nickel snaps - but its happening and will start to happen more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Koolblue13 Posted June 7, 2023 Share Posted June 7, 2023 1 minute ago, MartinC said: It absolutely is. As linebackers gradually start to look more like large safeties, and a safety can do more things and help you disguise coverages more than a linebacker - why not replace that second linebacker with a safety. Certainly on downs were you expect pass. That absolutely has started to happen. Not every nickel snap, not most nickel snaps - but its happening and will start to happen more. Maybe that will happen more and more in the future. It's possible. Doesn't chanhe the fact that it hasn't happened yet and we have 2 LBers on the field for almost all of our snaps. If this season that changes and we go with 1 LBer (dime) more often, it'' be because we did a **** job of addressing LB and not because of us living in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlwaysBeRedskins2Me Posted June 8, 2023 Share Posted June 8, 2023 Vikings apparently shopping linebacker Danielle Hunter. Multiple teams are interested. I don't suppose one of those teams could be us?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
method man Posted June 8, 2023 Share Posted June 8, 2023 6 minutes ago, AlwaysBeRedskins2Me said: Vikings apparently shopping linebacker Danielle Hunter. Multiple teams are interested. I don't suppose one of those teams could be us?? He is not an off ball LB. He is an edge rusher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlwaysBeRedskins2Me Posted June 8, 2023 Share Posted June 8, 2023 3 hours ago, method man said: He is not an off ball LB. He is an edge rusher Oh ok. Wouldn't make a lot of sense then. On the other hand, that might mean that we'll jump all over it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DWinzit Posted June 8, 2023 Share Posted June 8, 2023 10 hours ago, MartinC said: It absolutely is. As linebackers gradually start to look more like large safeties, and a safety can do more things and help you disguise coverages more than a linebacker - why not replace that second linebacker with a safety. Certainly on downs were you expect pass. That absolutely has started to happen. Not every nickel snap, not most nickel snaps - but its happening and will start to happen more. 10 hours ago, Koolblue13 said: Maybe that will happen more and more in the future. It's possible. Doesn't chanhe the fact that it hasn't happened yet and we have 2 LBers on the field for almost all of our snaps. If this season that changes and we go with 1 LBer (dime) more often, it'' be because we did a **** job of addressing LB and not because of us living in the future. Loved reading your discussion. I don't see how a team can't have at least one bigger/fast LB matched with at the very least a large S/small fast LB regardless of what you wish to call them and that smaller guy better be able to tackle. (and your LB3 better be reliable because they will play a lot) They are going to be on islands when a back or TE have the ball and breach the DL. TEs like Darnell Washington or tough bigger RB's like Derrick Henry will run rampant through the backfield if it is just smallish DBs relied on to bring him down all the time. (hoping B Rob and C Rod can take advantage of smaller DBs) As for the smallish LB's, we are putting faith in Hudson (6' 220) proving he was worth his draft status and play similar to how he did at Michigan 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
method man Posted June 8, 2023 Share Posted June 8, 2023 4 hours ago, DWinzit said: Loved reading your discussion. I don't see how a team can't have at least one bigger/fast LB matched with at the very least a large S/small fast LB regardless of what you wish to call them and that smaller guy better be able to tackle. (and your LB3 better be reliable because they will play a lot) They are going to be on islands when a back or TE have the ball and breach the DL. TEs like Darnell Washington or tough bigger RB's like Derrick Henry will run rampant through the backfield if it is just smallish DBs relied on to bring him down all the time. (hoping B Rob and C Rod can take advantage of smaller DBs) As for the smallish LB's, we are putting faith in Hudson (6' 220) proving he was worth his draft status and play similar to how he did at Michigan The ironic thing is Hudson’s college position was more similar to a buffalo nickel vs a true LB. It’s not just that he is small for a LB but he has very short arms too 7 hours ago, AlwaysBeRedskins2Me said: Oh ok. Wouldn't make a lot of sense then. On the other hand, that might mean that we'll jump all over it. By coincidence, he’s the guy that Sweat has been comped to given the body type 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DWinzit Posted June 8, 2023 Share Posted June 8, 2023 4 minutes ago, method man said: The ironic thing is Hudson’s college position was more similar to a buffalo nickel vs a true LB. It’s not just that he is small for a LB but he has very short arms too Yes, Viper which is a bit of a S/LB tweener 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Koolblue13 Posted June 8, 2023 Share Posted June 8, 2023 Hudson blows. I hope he doesn't make the 53. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Koolblue13 Posted June 8, 2023 Share Posted June 8, 2023 Cook probably becomes a Dolphin which is just stupid. Fastest team ever. Mike White is gonna light it up down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrJL Posted June 8, 2023 Share Posted June 8, 2023 20 hours ago, MartinC said: Do you have source for that 74% - because I have seen stats that show way lower? And we absolutely 100% do not always have two backers on the field in nickel - I'm just not sure what the actual stats are on that though. Someone did cite them in another thread earlier this offseason. I'm pretty sure nickel is defined as 5 Db, so unless our 5 man line is mostly in when we're also playing 5 DB we kind of have to have 2 LB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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