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Russian Invasion of Ukraine


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10 hours ago, NickyJ said:

Back in March, there were videos of troop trains carrying buses and trucks because they were supposedly on the verge of collapse. Maybe they really were, but after hearing it repeatedly for months on end, I'm now taking any news of collapses as being in maybe half a year or so.


The Russians did collapse, they lost the entire northern front and any chance of a swift victory right after those videos of trains carrying buses and trucks came out. That was a major turning point in the war. 

Edited by RansomthePasserby
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3 hours ago, The Sisko said:

I saw some place today that we’re considering giving the Ukrainians A-10s. That would be da bomb. 

It would be lot of bombs...

 

I'm hearing that Russia has been able to shoot down the HIMARS using the Pantsir, which is a low altitude interceptor (the S300/400 were apparently ineffective), and the second Ukrainian attack on the bridge in Kherson region was unsuccessful.   However they have to concentrate so many units in a small area that it will become difficult to defend everything.  Also it may be possible to saturate / confuse the air defenses with decoys e.g. their unguided rockets (Smersh)

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5 hours ago, The Almighty Buzz said:

Anyone trust Vlad to actually stick to it?

 

At this point, they don't have much capability to stop it.  Their ships can't go near the Ukraine ports.  And if they attack cargo ships in neutral waters, then Ukraine would be justifed in doing the same.  Including their oil tankers.

Edited by DCSaints_fan
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I’d imagine if that happens, Turkish ships would probably end up escorting them afterwards. I’d imagine we might even do it ourselves during the part of the trip when they’re in international waters. So, they could do it once, but that would be the end of that.

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50 minutes ago, The Sisko said:

I’d imagine if that happens, Turkish ships would probably end up escorting them afterwards. I’d imagine we might even do it ourselves during the part of the trip when they’re in international waters. So, they could do it once, but that would be the end of that.

 

Are you sure Biden would be willing to risk a war with Russia by firing on one of their ships just to protect a grain shipment?  

 

Don't get me wrong, I think he should.  But nothing I've seen so far makes me think he would be willing to go all in for that.

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Royal Navy tracks movements of Russian submarines into the North Sea

 

A Royal Navy warship has tracked the movements of two Russian submarines as they sailed into the North Sea.


British submarine hunter HMS Portland was on watch as cruise missile submarine Severodvinsk and Akula-class attack submarine Vepr made their underwater journey south along the Norwegian coast from the Arctic.

 

The Type 23 frigate shadowed the submarines as they surfaced separately in the North Sea, north west of Bergen, Norway, on July 16 and 19, before NATO and Baltic forces took over duties as they continued to St Petersburg for Russian Navy Day celebrations on July 31.

 

Portland and her specialist Merlin helicopter – both equipped with cutting-edge sonars, sensors and torpedoes for submarine-hunting operations – reported on the movements of the Russian Northern Fleet vessels.

 

1.jpg?w=586&rev=6e5f9369ea66404b9f2e596a

 

Click on the link for the full story

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1 hour ago, The Almighty Buzz said:

 

Are you sure Biden would be willing to risk a war with Russia by firing on one of their ships just to protect a grain shipment?  

 

Don't get me wrong, I think he should.  But nothing I've seen so far makes me think he would be willing to go all in for that.

The Russians would have to fire toward a US vessel if they wanted to attack a US escorted grain shipment, we wouldn’t have to fire on them preemptively.

 

But I don’t think Biden would do it anyway, but I also don’t think Russia is going to attack Grain shipments 

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35 minutes ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

The Russians would have to fire toward a US vessel if they wanted to attack a US escorted grain shipment, we wouldn’t have to fire on them preemptively.

 

But I don’t think Biden would do it anyway, but I also don’t think Russia is going to attack Grain shipments 

 

Not necessarily.  They would only need to fire on the cargo ship.  There are a lot of aspects that go into escorting ships and to what level are you authorized to act to defend the target/s.  

 

But I agree that Biden is too soft to do it.  I’m not going to try to guess what Putin will or won’t do though.

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45 minutes ago, The Almighty Buzz said:

 

Not necessarily.  They would only need to fire on the cargo ship.  There are a lot of aspects that go into escorting ships and to what level are you authorized to act to defend the target/s.  

 



I hear what you are sayin, but if the us vessel is reasonably close to the cargo ship to escort it wouldn’t the Russian vessel have go fire towards it to fire at the cargo ship 🤔 

 

 

Also I think you are wrong in calling Biden soft. I mean, he has caused Russia and Putin to suffer grave losses without having to risk the lives of any American servicemen. The strategy is working, why change it up now? The trigger man isn’t the boss and the boss isn’t the trigger man.

1 hour ago, Wildbunny said:

Nope.

 

I'm expecting them to break it anytime soon for whatever reason. Then blame Ukraine/EU/NATO for this.

If Russia actually had the ability to project power they wouldn’t allow the shipments to happen in the fire place and would instead load the grain up on their own ships.

Edited by CousinsCowgirl84
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5 minutes ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

I hear what you are sayin, but if the us vessel is reasonably close to the cargo ship to escort it wouldn’t the Russian vessel have go fire towards it to fire at the cargo ship 🤔 

 

 

They can shoot from below.  And an escort still can't get too close because ships would need room for emergency evasive maneuvers.  And being shot towards is a lot different than being fired upon.  

 

8 minutes ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

Also I think you are wrong in calling Biden soft. I mean, he has caused Russia and Putin to suffer grave losses without having to risk the lives of any American servicemen. The strategy is working, why change it up now? The trigger man isn’t the boss and the boss isn’t the trigger man.

 

Would he be willing to start WW3 to protect that grain shipment?  I dont and that is why I think he is soft.  I also disagree with how Russia has been handled this whole time.  So that is why I consider him soft.  You don't have to agree.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:


out of curiosity do you think avoiding world war 3 is soft 🤨 

 

Depends on the situation obviously.  But I think Biden has over-hyped the WW3 possibility because he is afraid of any shooting between us.  And yes, I think he is soft.   

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13 minutes ago, The Almighty Buzz said:

 

Depends on the situation obviously.  But I think Biden has over-hyped the WW3 possibility because he is afraid of any shooting between us.  And yes, I think he is soft.   

Won’t China be forced to support Russia. If Russia gets turned into a third world country, or a country like Japan post WW2 who is allied with China?

 

If America gets involved directly in conflict against Russia, doesn’t China have a national security interest in keeping Russia as an ally?

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31 minutes ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

Won’t China be forced to support Russia. If Russia gets turned into a third world country, or a country like Japan post WW2 who is allied with China?

 

If America gets involved directly in conflict against Russia, doesn’t China have a national security interest in keeping Russia as an ally?

 

No.

 

Nothing personal but I've had this discussion before and honestly no one can say for sure what woulda/coulda happened.  I don't even mind having the discussion again now with updated circumstances.  But I'm currently smoking a bowl and watching family feud.  I just don't have it in me to discuss geopolitics at the moment.

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21 hours ago, DCSaints_fan said:

It would be lot of bombs...

 

I'm hearing that Russia has been able to shoot down the HIMARS using the Pantsir, which is a low altitude interceptor (the S300/400 were apparently ineffective), and the second Ukrainian attack on the bridge in Kherson region was unsuccessful.   However they have to concentrate so many units in a small area that it will become difficult to defend everything.  Also it may be possible to saturate / confuse the air defenses with decoys e.g. their unguided rockets (Smersh)

It was a softball.😉

 

1 hour ago, The Almighty Buzz said:

 

Depends on the situation obviously.  But I think Biden has over-hyped the WW3 possibility because he is afraid of any shooting between us.  And yes, I think he is soft.   

I don't think he's soft, but rather highly deliberative and risk averse. I suppose one could make the case that amounts to being soft and if that's your opinion, so be it. However, there are other things Biden could do. So if the Orcs do fire on one of these ships whether we're escorting or not, I could see a valid response being to quietly provide the Ukrainians with tech to upgrade their own missiles to extend their range, long range US missiles, or some other real game changing hardware. The next time a grain ship is fired on, Sevastopol goes bye bye. Vlad would be P.O.'d but everybody knows there's not a damn thing he could do about it unless he's willing to go nukie pooh because their conventional forces are damn near depleted as it is. The question is whether I think Biden would do anything like this and if I'm honest, I have to say almost certainly not. Just wishful thinking on my part.

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