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Russian Invasion of Ukraine


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How Putin’s Move Into Ukraine Could Backfire Disastrously

 

President Joe Biden acknowledged on Thursday that his new sanctions against Russia would take months or longer to affect Vladimir Putin’s behavior, if they affect it at all. So what are the U.S. and its allies doing now—what can they do now—to help Ukraine resist the invasion?

 

The stark answer is not much. The hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of anti-tank and anti-air missiles, which Biden and other NATO leaders have sent Ukraine in recent months, are probably stiffening its defenses, but even if we sent more now, they might arrive too late to matter.

 

Ukrainian soldiers are reportedly putting up fierce fights in the eastern city of Kharkiv and at the main airport outside Kyiv. According to one report of unknown reliability, a column of Russian tanks was devastated by a Ukrainian brigade firing U.S.-supplied Javelin anti-tank missiles.

 

Still, it is doubtful they can keep the invaders from accomplishing their aims for very long. The Russians vastly outmatch them in firepower, missile arsenals, air superiority, and mobility. Some have predicted Kyiv falling in a matter of days, if not hours. This is probably exaggeration. Russians haven’t conducted such a large, complex military operation in more than a half-century. It isn’t likely to go like clockwork.

 

But let’s say that Russia captures the capital, ousts the popularly elected president, Volodymyr Zelensky, and installs a puppet leader with the mandate to haul Ukraine back into Moscow’s orbit—all reasonable expectations. Then what? Ukraine has been an independent country since 1991. As Tim Judah notes in a dispatch from Ukraine for the New York Review of Books, “Most young Ukrainians, who have no memory of the Soviet era … are now just like other Europeans.” There is no appetite for resuming a supplicant’s status to an empire to the east. Even among the older generation, three decades of independence, combined with Putin’s new aggression, have intensified a sense of Ukrainian nationalism and a longing to join the West.

 

As a result, after the main fight is over (whenever that happens), those 150,000 Russian troops in or around Ukraine will have to remain as an occupation force. They will face resistance—not just from Ukrainian soldiers, who will have access to weapons, but from civilian insurgents, who have training in arms as well and who will surely receive supplies (and perhaps more) from U.S. and other intelligence agencies. Without Russian occupiers, the new Quisling regime would be overthrown at once. Even with the occupiers, its edicts are unlikely to be obeyed. The notion that Putin could control Ukraine, in the way that his Kremlin predecessors did in Cold War times, seems improbable.

 

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White House asks Congress for $6.4 billion to aid Ukraine

 

The Biden administration asked Congress to provide $6.4 billion in funding to assist Ukraine as it fights off Russia's advances, an administration official confirmed to Axios on Friday.

 

Driving the news: $2.9 billion would go toward security assistance, humanitarian aid and economic stabilization needs, and regional efforts to combat Russian cyberattacks, among other things. The administration is also seeking $3.5 billion for the Pentagon's response to the crisis.

 

Part of the $2.9 billion would also be allocated to aid Ukraine's neighboring countries.


The request is likely to receive bipartisan support. "We’re looking at including a Ukraine assistance package and COVID relief in the omnibus," a congressional leadership aide told Axios on Friday.

 

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2 hours ago, PeterMP said:

 

Your initial post made a comparison between the Soviet Union's attempt to put nuclear missiles in Cuba and NATO expansion.  There is no real comparison.  NATO expansion has not come with an expansion of our nuclear weapons systems and especially not nuclear missiles.  Our nuclear missile system is now further from Russia's border than it was at the time of the Cuban missile crisis.

 

Completely disagree on both counts.  Putin doesn't want NATO on his doorstep, the same way we didn't want the Soviet Bloc in the Caribbean (or in the western hemisphere).  Cuba housed those ICBMs to assure their defense at the time.  

 

NATO nations have 100+ nuclear weapons we own, deployed in support of their mission.  Which is a capability they only have at their disposal, because of NATO.  Fact of the matter is, the same way those publicly known locations of nuclear weapons are shared, others (with more mobile means of delivery) likely are as well.  So the concept that anywhere we 'know' houses nuclear weapons, is the *only* place they can be deployed, isn't based in reality.

 

2 hours ago, PeterMP said:

What we're moving closer to Russia is really missiles that are part of an anti-missile/air craft defense system.

 

That can be easily outfitted in an offensive configuration...in fact into the same retaliatory air strike capability we've used extensively over the past 30+ years...you're keying in on missiles literally being pointed, but our relationship w/ N. Korea right now, is pretty much dependent on whether we're conducting training exercises w/ ROK or not.  There's also a lot of agitation with China over disputes in the S. China Sea...I could see someone picturing the Black Sea being a new playground for more cold war maneuver nonsense.   

 

2 hours ago, PeterMP said:

 

It made sense to expand because those countries worried about their security and they were new democratic regimes that needed support.  We expanded because those countries WANTED to join NATO.

 

Poland, Estonia, etc, didn't want to join NATO for no reason and our reasons for letting them join are the same reason they wanted to join.

 

To protect them from Russian aggression and Russian attempts to control and subjugate them as it was doing to Chechnya at the time that we opened expansion up to them.

 

Those countries didn't just say hey we want to join NATO and we didn't just say yes hey why not.  Russian actions lead to NATO expansion.

 

Same applied to Cuba, for communism.  Really don't see the point of admitting countries we really aren't intending to *defend*, and have no strategic importance to the alliance.  More of a keep away move designed to agitate Russia.  Well congrats, Russia's agitated.  At the time of the expansion of NATO in central Europe in the '90's, it wasn't because of Russian aggression, they were reeling from the Soviet Union's dissolution and more interested in partnering with the US.  

 

Quote

On May 2, 1998, immediately after the Senate ratified NATO expansion, I called George Kennan, the architect of America’s successful containment of the Soviet Union. Having joined the State Department in 1926 and served as U.S. ambassador to Moscow in 1952, Kennan was arguably America’s greatest expert on Russia. Though 94 at the time and frail of voice, he was sharp of mind when I asked for his opinion of NATO expansion.

 

I am going to share Kennan’s whole answer:

“I think it is the beginning of a new cold war. I think the Russians will gradually react quite adversely and it will affect their policies. I think it is a tragic mistake. There was no reason for this whatsoever. No one was threatening anybody else. This expansion would make the founding fathers of this country turn over in their graves.

 

“We have signed up to protect a whole series of countries, even though we have neither the resources nor the intention to do so in any serious way. [NATO expansion] was simply a lighthearted action by a Senate that has no real interest in foreign affairs. What bothers me is how superficial and ill informed the whole Senate debate was. I was particularly bothered by the references to Russia as a country dying to attack Western Europe.

 

“Don’t people understand? Our differences in the Cold War were with the Soviet Communist regime. And now we are turning our backs on the very people who mounted the greatest bloodless revolution in history to remove that Soviet regime. And Russia’s democracy is as far advanced, if not farther, as any of these countries we’ve just signed up to defend from Russia. Of course there is going to be a bad reaction from Russia, and then [the NATO expanders] will say that we always told you that is how the Russians are — but this is just wrong.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/21/opinion/putin-ukraine-nato.html

 

 

Edited by megared
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1 minute ago, AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy said:

The amount of Putin and China apologists I’m seeing today is disgusting.

 

I thought we could all hate the Russians and the Nazis. It seems we hit new lows at every turn.

 

Can you provide me a link to somewhere which shows strong Putin support?

 

Preferably not a Russian patrol drinking Vodka on TikTok...

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Just now, Captain Wiggles said:

I don't hate the Russian people. Their leadership has been historically terrible tho in so many ways.

 

I'm certainly a fan of Russian arts. Music n composers in particular. 🤓

 

They didn't have a Renaissance tho.  Tchaikovsky and the other bamma are all they got.  Oh what, a painter or two?

 

Their bands < our bands.

 

Just playing.

 

I hear you, seeing that headline about the troop carrier getting shot down is incredibly heartbreaking.  The ****ed up part is, those troops would've killed Ukrainians.

 

It's all so ridiculous.

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Now that galaxy-brain Vlad has driven the ruble to its lowest value in history, I feel compelled to mention that the average working Russian earns roughly $300 a month.  The whole of the nation is little more than some pathetic, super-sized Arkansas.  But that exchange rate does give me a good idea…
 

 

TIME FOR THE TAILGATE TO GOFUNDME A RUSSIAN TRUCKER FREEDOM CONVOY TO RED SQUARE!

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20 minutes ago, d0ublestr0ker0ll said:

 

Can you provide me a link to somewhere which shows strong Putin support?

 

Preferably not a Russian patrol drinking Vodka on TikTok...

I am in a couple of discord’s for stock trading. Some of the members are putting this squarely on us. 
 

They say things like “Putin seems like a smart and kinda chill guy” or “China needs a seat at the table”. Of course, “Biden needs to stop pushing for war” and other stuff like that. 
 

They must filter this stuff from Fox News, I wouldn’t know because I don’t watch it.

Edited by AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy
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12 minutes ago, d0ublestr0ker0ll said:

 

They didn't have a Renaissance tho.  Tchaikovsky and the other bamma are all they got.  Oh what, a painter or two?

 

Their bands < our bands.

 

Just playing.

 

Russian romantic period pianists were incredible. 

 

Europeans have legit culture. Ours is Dierks Bentley and SpongeBob. 🤭

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1 minute ago, Captain Wiggles said:

 

Russian romantic period pianists were incredible. 

 

Europeans have legit culture. Ours is Dierks Bentley and SpongeBob. 🤭

 

Pianists are mathematicians, FYI.

 

Unless you're talking about Stevie Wonder...he played by feel.

 

Oh wait....

 

 

We all did.

 

Russia never had anything close to that.

 

They are zombies in the world of arts.

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2 minutes ago, Captain Wiggles said:

 

Russian romantic period pianists were incredible. 

 

Europeans have legit culture. Ours is Dierks Bentley and SpongeBob. 🤭

 

The Russians shine in arts and smarts, they have a LOT to offer the rest of the world if they ever get the opportunity

 

Another element in this, Vlad & Co knew the sanctions were coming, they're moving their ill booten gotty around and international watchdogs are taking notes

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8 minutes ago, AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy said:

They say things like “Putin seems like a smart and kinda chill guy” or “China needs a seat at the table”. Of course, “Biden needs to stop pushing for war” and other stuff like that. 

 

Damn that sucks. Just shows how effective the Russian and Chinese propagandists have been.

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