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The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut


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30 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Teams are, indeed, willing to deal for Deshaun Watson without full resolution of the 22 lawsuits filed against him. The biggest question is whether the Texans believe they can get fair value before such resolution comes about.

What all of the reporting seems to skirt over, are they willing to trade for him before the district attorney determines if they are going to charge Watson with a crime.

 

I have no doubt there are teams, maybe even this one, who would trade for Watson and deal with the civil cases and the Comish.  

 

The question is, are they willing to trade for him before knowing if he might go to jail.  THAT'S what I want to know.  I think the answer is no.  Which means, based on the reporting, I believe Watson's attorney said the DA is going to have an answer from the Grand Jury on charges prior to April 1st.  But I don't think we know exactly when that will happen.

 

The other thing that is tricky (for the Texans) is Watson's cap number balloons to $40M on March 16th, the new league year.  It was $15M last year.  So, they could just let him sit out without TOO much of an effect.  (OBTW, that's almost the same as one of our salary cap penalty years.  Granted, a smaller percentage because the cap has gone up. but even $15m isn't something to sneeze at.) $40M is not doable.

 

I THINK, if I'm reading this correctly, if he's traded before the new league year starts, the Texans are on the hook for $15M of dead cap space based on his pro-rated bonus payments.

 

However, the receiving team would get his $35M 2022 salary, and future salary amounts ($20, $32, $32).  There is also a $17M roster bonus which is applied in 2023.  I think the team trading for Watson has to pick that up. 

 

Honestly, the cap hits for a team who receives Watson are really not bad, starting in 2022: $35, $37, $32, $32.  For a Franchise QB, that's not terrible.  

 

What I don't know, let's say you trade for Watson now, and then he's sentenced to Jail time and can't report.  Can the team just release him and have no cap liability? I'm not sure how that works, as I've never looked into it.  I know the signing bonus is pro-rated, and escalates to the year you release trade a player.  I don't know what happens to the salary cap once you've traded for a player. 

 

So you're juggling 2 things if you trade for him BEFORE the criminal side is sorted out.

 

1) What assets are you willing to risk if he can't play ever again

2) What salary cap implications are there if he can't play again?

 

The civil stuff will get worked out eventually.  Then we need to hear from the Commish.  My hope is if he's contrite and apologetic, he can argue for time served and pay a MASSIVE (I mean, like maybe his entire 2021 base salary) fine and be done with it.  But with Rodger, who knows.  

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49 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

Honestly I don't think we'll have any idea of his speed until he runs at the combine. I'd guess he's probably a close to a 4.5-4.6 guy from what I've seen. Certainly not as fast as Willis but I think it would probably qualify as close to NFL+

 

Corral isn't doing drills at the combine due to his ankle injury right?

 

49 minutes ago, mistertim said:

He also has some nice wiggle and cutting ability when he runs, unlike Howell for example who was mostly a power runner. But I agree that he'll probably need to adjust his running in the NFL, though some of that is scheme. There seemed to be a fair amount of designed A gap runs and I really don't want to see too much of that in the NFL, and we probably won't.

 

Corral is definitely more elusive than Howell.  I don't think Howell can or should run at the next level.  I do think he showed enough athleticism to say he can buy time in the backfield though.  When I say "run", I mean have that be a sizeable part of the offensive gameplan be the QB running.  Occasional option to surprise the D?  Sure.  Some scrambles?  Sure.  But unless there's wide open green grass, I think everyone but Willis should be keeping their eyes downfield more often.  Willis can make people miss and he's built to take hits like a RB.  RG3, Lamar, etc aren't built like that.  Cam Newton was though.  Luck was as well, but as we saw it caught up to both Luck and Cam.  It does buy time for Willis to develop as a passer (ala Josh Allen).

 

49 minutes ago, mistertim said:

Also agree that he'll need to add a bit of weight. He's not a beanpole, but 6'1-6'2 205 is a bit thin. I don't think he necessarily needs to get up to 225-230 or anything, but adding 10 pounds or so would be a smart move and probably pretty obtainable with NFL conditioning.

 

Corral mostly seems to be under the radar at the moment, which makes sense because he couldn't play in the Senior Bowl. I think once the combine rolls around we'll probably start to hear more about him again.

 

I think he is a beanpole.  Brugler posted some stuff saying rumor has it he played under 200.  From looking at Corral compared to his OL and RB's, I'd guess he's closer to Willis/Howell height than the 6'2 he's listed at.  Both Willis/Howell are a bit above 6'0.  I'd guess Corral is as well.  And given his rumored weight (per Brugler), his slender frame, and I think his height being closer to 6'0 than 6'2 is a solid guess.

 

I think most NFL QB's tend to play around 215-225.  Mahomes, Ryan, Rodgers, Brady, Carr. 

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10 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

What all of the reporting seems to skirt over, are they willing to trade for him before the district attorney determines if they are going to charge Watson with a crime.

 

I have no doubt there are teams, maybe even this one, who would trade for Watson and deal with the civil cases and the Comish.  

 

The question is, are they willing to trade for him before knowing if he might go to jail.  THAT'S what I want to know.  I think the answer is no.  Which means, based on the reporting, I believe Watson's attorney said the DA is going to have an answer from the Grand Jury on charges prior to April 1st.  But I don't think we know exactly when that will happen.

 

The other thing that is tricky (for the Texans) is Watson's cap number balloons to $40M on March 16th, the new league year.  It was $15M last year.  So, they could just let him sit out without TOO much of an effect.  (OBTW, that's almost the same as one of our salary cap penalty years.  Granted, a smaller percentage because the cap has gone up. but even $15m isn't something to sneeze at.) $40M is not doable.

 

I THINK, if I'm reading this correctly, if he's traded before the new league year starts, the Texans are on the hook for $15M of dead cap space based on his pro-rated bonus payments.

 

However, the receiving team would get his $35M 2022 salary, and future salary amounts ($20, $32, $32).  There is also a $17M roster bonus which is applied in 2023.  I think the team trading for Watson has to pick that up. 

 

Honestly, the cap hits for a team who receives Watson are really not bad, starting in 2022: $35, $37, $32, $32.  For a Franchise QB, that's not terrible.  

 

What I don't know, let's say you trade for Watson now, and then he's sentenced to Jail time and can't report.  Can the team just release him and have no cap liability? I'm not sure how that works, as I've never looked into it.  I know the signing bonus is pro-rated, and escalates to the year you release trade a player.  I don't know what happens to the salary cap once you've traded for a player. 

 

So you're juggling 2 things if you trade for him BEFORE the criminal side is sorted out.

 

1) What assets are you willing to risk if he can't play ever again

2) What salary cap implications are there if he can't play again?

 

The civil stuff will get worked out eventually.  Then we need to hear from the Commish.  My hope is if he's contrite and apologetic, he can argue for time served and pay a MASSIVE (I mean, like maybe his entire 2021 base salary) fine and be done with it.  But with Rodger, who knows.  

I dont think anyone will trade for him with criminal charges pending for a fair deal. Maybe for a ridiculous discount. If there is no criminal charges I think some teams will trade for him.

Edited by Redskins 2021
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41 minutes ago, RWJ said:

I know you are more concerned about Philly getting Wilson than anything else, at least I think so.  SIP, I think you can take a deep breath.  He going to stay in Seattle.  He's trying to get more money along with an extension.  

 

I am worried about that the most.  If you buy some reports the Eagles really really really want Wilson.  and i think they can outbid for obvious reasons.

 

Some thought exists by some in the media (including a Texans reporter) that they will give a big play for Watson.

 

What makes our division winnable is partly IMO that only one team is in the "have" category for QB.  I'd love for us to enter the "have" club.  But I fear even more another team in the NFC east entering the "have clubs"

19 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

What all of the reporting seems to skirt over, are they willing to trade for him before the district attorney determines if they are going to charge Watson with a crime.

 

I have no doubt there are teams, maybe even this one, who would trade for Watson and deal with the civil cases and the Comish.  

 

 

Seems the most common thing I hear is teams want the criminal thing dismissed but some are willing to take the risk with the civil cases.

 

I've heard enough that I am convinced this team is in on Watson but i don't know under what context.  Keim suggested the legal things clearning -- not sure if that means all the legal stuff or just the criminal?

 

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5 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I am worried about that the most.  If you buy some reports the Eagles really really really want Wilson.  and i think they can outbid for obvious reasons.

 

Some thought exists by some in the media (including a Texans reporter) that they will give a big play for Watson.

 

What makes our division winnable is partly IMO that only one team is in the "have" category for QB.  I'd love for us to enter the "have" club.  But I fear even more another team in the NFC east entering the "have clubs"

Well, the Giants need a QB.  I think IF RR and Co. want Trubisky we will outbid the Giants even if they want him.  IF let's say Wilson does get traded I think we would outbid them too for him.  RR would look pretty silly going on all these radio/TV/podcasts saying how much we need a QB and fail by not trading for Wilson but again I think he stays in Seattle.  Right now the only team that has a decent QB in our division is the Cowboys.  

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6 minutes ago, Always A Commander Never A Captain said:

 

Corral isn't doing drills at the combine due to his ankle injury right?

 

Corral is definitely more elusive than Howell.  I don't think Howell can or should run at the next level.  I do think he showed enough athleticism to say he can buy time in the backfield though.  When I say "run", I mean have that be a sizeable part of the offensive gameplan be the QB running.  Occasional option to surprise the D?  Sure.  Some scrambles?  Sure.  But unless there's wide open green grass, I think everyone but Willis should be keeping their eyes downfield more often.  Willis can make people miss and he's built to take hits like a RB.  RG3, Lamar, etc aren't built like that.  Cam Newton was though.  Luck was as well, but as we saw it caught up to both Luck and Cam.  It does buy time for Willis to develop as a passer (ala Josh Allen).

 

I think he is a beanpole.  Brugler posted some stuff saying rumor has it he played under 200.  From looking at Corral compared to his OL and RB's, I'd guess he's closer to Willis/Howell height than the 6'2 he's listed at.  Both Willis/Howell are a bit above 6'0.  I'd guess Corral is as well.  And given his rumored weight (per Brugler), his slender frame, and I think his height being closer to 6'0 than 6'2 is a solid guess.

 

I think most NFL QB's tend to play around 215-225.  Mahomes, Ryan, Rodgers, Brady, Carr. 

 

You're right about the combine; forgot about that. I'm curious if he'll run at his pro day. That's another 3 weeks after the combine so I guess we'll see.

 

Yeah I don't think most QBs are really built for doing much running up the gut. Cam because he was huge, Luck as you noted. But yeah it caught up to Cam, though to be honest IMO he was never much of an actual QB. His passing was always pretty mediocre. Willis might be able to do it since he's built pretty well, but in general I'm always wary about that.

 

Honestly it's hard to tell sometimes about a guy's weight. But I can see how you'd see him as a beanpole. He's definitely a bit skinny when compared to some other guys. I don't think it's a huge issue as long as he's not used as a run first QB in the NFL (which would be silly so I doubt it would happen) and he puts on some weight. I wouldn't think putting on 10-15 pounds would be a major issue with professional training.

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16 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

The Athletic from just a little while ago.

 

We are always in the forefront of the narrative of the team that wants a QB the most.  Rivera clearly is willing to wear his desperation for a QB on his sleave in a big way.

 

 

Screen Shot 2022-02-28 at 4.50.20 PM.png

Screen Shot 2022-02-28 at 4.50.38 PM.png

Screen Shot 2022-02-28 at 4.51.13 PM.png

 A lot of qb on this list but it looks like none are available? 

 

Other then Mia and Car do we know if any other team has made an offer for Watson?

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1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Seems the most common thing I hear is teams want the criminal thing dismissed but some are willing to take the risk with the civil cases.

 

I've heard enough that I am convinced this team is in on Watson but i don't know under what context.  Keim suggested the legal things clearning -- not sure if that means all the legal stuff or just the criminal?

I'm desperate enough I would do it before the Criminal IF and ONLY IF the picks were contingent on playing time.  Like, we would trade Houston 3 #1's and a #2 NOW, except, if he goes to jail, it all goes poof and we owe them absolutely nothing, and we get a 2023 #1 back. (Since they will have used our 2022 already before we know the outcome, most likely...) That gives them the relief they need, the QB we need, and at the end of the day, if he goes to jail, in theory, we've just swapped first rounder for a year.  

 

The risk we would take would be taking on the salary cap hit for this year's salary.  Again, I'm not sure what would happen to that hit if you just released him.  

 

I mean, that would be SUPER aggressive, and Dan would get KILLED for it, and Congress would go nuts, and all that stuff would happen, and I get that. But I don't really give a damn if Dan gets more bad press.

 

I would, of course, want to make sure the guy still isn't taking liberties with women, he's contrite, apologetic, and finds a way to make amends as best as possible.  

56 minutes ago, RWJ said:

 

 

 

Mark my words, he won't be there at 11.  All of this "the first QB is the 20th player on my big board" stuff is great until a team needs a QB, there is one available, and then they go up to take them.  It happens every year.

 

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9 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I know you get that.  I've made the point to you multiple times.  Yet, you still made the case that you can't win with major money alllocated to the QB spot where you go with a post about see look at the last few SB winners even though one of those examples actually big time defeats your point but instead you presented in a way to help your point by ignoring the real numbers for the Rams.   Even though you know that the Rams stats don't actually help your point.

 

“Can’t win” is never anything I’ve said, it’s just not likely. It’s actually less likely over the last 15 years or so to win the SB or be in it with a QB that’s paid top 5 than it is to have a Joe Flacco, Foles, 

9 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

My other issue is you hang on the SB for judging.  Even though as you even said, tough to win a SB for anyone so why are we judging purely based on that?  Brady has dominated the SB.  He's a unicorn as opposed to a trend setter as you like to say he is becoming as for other players likewise leaving major money on the table.    
 

 

I used the SB because that’s the main argument for many, I totally dislike that being the only measure and feel it lacks depth and real value. Using the final 4-8 teams over a period of time has much better value.

 

It’s not that I feel the rest of the league is going to follow exactly as Brady did it, especially fresh off a rookie deal (it’s money making time), but the idea the QB must work with the organization and be willing to sacrifice yearly earnings to feed the rest and compete for SBs is certainly a part of Brady’s legacy that others have witnessed. This fact has influenced the younger QBs and Mahomes has spoken directly towards sacrificing dollars to remain competitive. 


https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sportscasting.com/patrick-mahomes-made-stunning-sacrifice-to-help-chiefs-teammate-secure-85-million/%3famp


He didn’t maximize or leverage his situation and force the team into player centric deal. It’s trending this direction and Mahomes went against it. I often compare it to the NBA superstar, the QB is becoming much like this, and admittedly, I dislike it a great deal (bias view). So I’m a sucker for anything where the QB seems to be working with the organization. With a hard cap, it’s incredibly difficult to remain competitive if the QB is paid 15-20% of the cap, this is fact the data supports it. 

 

9 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:


I'd put money that as Mahomes contracts skyrockets. This year 36 million, next 44, next 46 -- we will be watching him in the playoffs still.   Being a perennial playoff team is actually pretty cool.   6 out of 11 of the top cap teams for QBs were in the playoffs, the ones that missed were close, exception being Atlanta who wasn't bad this season and had a staggered contract, and the Texans whose player didn't start and Wilson/Seattle who got hurt.  9 out of the top 15 in the playoffs. One of the teams who were in bottom of QB cap allocation made the playoffs.  The Eagles.   And I do think they were that good.  Had an easy as heck schedule this season.

 

It’s less to do with the amount and more about the cap percentage. Also, by signing a 10 year deal it provides the team many more avenues to manipulate the cap and put money in future years when cap goes up. Shorter term deal would’ve been the money maximizing way to go for Mahomes. It was a team friendly deal to allow the  Chiefs to remain competitive in Mahomes eyes. 

 

9 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Joel Corry who knows his way around the cap, ex-agent, and considers himself a cap specialist, is on the radio all the time to explain cap situations often hits two points that you don't seem to factor in your points.

 

A.  Where the cap is going is very relevant.  Today's 20 million is tomorrow's 30.   So teams that might look dumb to fans in the moment as for the overall contract won't look so dumb once the cap meets the salary.

 

Agreed.
 

This is why longer term deal have more value to the team. Shorter term deals provide the QBs more opportunities to take advantage of the escalating cap. Making it much more difficult for the team remain competitive. 

 

9 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

B.  Some contracts are structured in ways on purpose so you experince the pleasure before the pain.  Actually most big contracts are.  Take Matt Ryan's contract as an example.  18 million then 16 million, 19, 27, 49, 44.

 

For sure, and I’m sure the Falcons were expecting the cap to rise much more than it has. Every situation is different filled with nuances and variables specific to that teams situation. 

 

9 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:


They went all in for this and next season. The cap hits of Donald, Ramsey, and Cupp last season made this happen (check it out, it’s wild). The willingness of Stafford to play out a deal with no guarantees at 10% of the cap contributed a great deal. Stafford remaining cheap next year allows them to pay those guys owed money and remain “in it” for next season.

 

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4 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

He's not under contract so they would have to re-sign him.

 

My guess is they won't.  They will let him go, and they will bring in some camp arm to go along with the rookie, the new backup and TH. Then they'll put that guy on the practice squad.  

 

Also, I think they like him, and they're not going to keep Allen around if they KNOW he can't make the final roster.  UNLESS they think Allen could unseat TH for 3rd string, there's just no benefit to bringing him back. 

I'm not going to dig it up, but there's no question it's @kingdaddy

 

In an interview with Nicki Jhabvala Taylor said something like, "I don't care if I'm a starter or backup, I just want to be in the league."

 

 

All I'm saying is that I think his chances of starting a game in Washington again are greater than zero. I have no fantasies about TH starting games....but I do believe if he does that we can win. You make it sound like we'd have a better chance of winning with Dan Snyder himself at QB over TH.....I get that you think he sucks. We'll see how things play out over the rest of his career. 

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24 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

I'm desperate enough I would do it before the Criminal IF and ONLY IF the picks were contingent on playing time.  Like, we would trade Houston 3 #1's and a #2 NOW, except, if he goes to jail, it all goes poof and we owe them absolutely nothing, and we get a 2023 #1 back. (Since they will have used our 2022 already before we know the outcome, most likely...) That gives them the relief they need, the QB we need, and at the end of the day, if he goes to jail, in theory, we've just swapped first rounder for a year.  

 

The risk we would take would be taking on the salary cap hit for this year's salary.  Again, I'm not sure what would happen to that hit if you just released him.  

 

I mean, that would be SUPER aggressive, and Dan would get KILLED for it, and Congress would go nuts, and all that stuff would happen, and I get that. But I don't really give a damn if Dan gets more bad press.

 

I would, of course, want to make sure the guy still isn't taking liberties with women, he's contrite, apologetic, and finds a way to make amends as best as possible.  

Mark my words, he won't be there at 11.  All of this "the first QB is the 20th player on my big board" stuff is great until a team needs a QB, there is one available, and then they go up to take them.  It happens every year.

 


I’ve only watched highlights of the dude and don’t have spectrum of great knowledge to lean on when comparing young QBs, but I see a freak athlete with a clean throwing motion— sign me up. My new theory is the running/playmaking QB with an awkward throwing motion is always going to struggle with accuracy in and out of the pocket (especially in the pocket). 

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42 minutes ago, wit33 said:

 

Agreed.
 

This is why longer term deal have more value to the team. Shorter term deals provide the QBs more opportunities to take advantage of the escalating cap. Making it much more difficult for the team remain competitive. 

 

 

 

It's a balancing act that's been talked about to death by agents-personnel guys over the years. Some players like the longer term security, some do not and prefer the short term contracts.  You are acting as if this dynamic doesn't exist.   I do agree that durable QBs who are in the prime would likely benefit by betting on themselves and in turn on their durability.  But clearly not everyone sees it like that. 

 

Big time guaranteed money like Allen and Mahomes got was ground breaking.  The guaranteed money is often the main plot line in football contracts because those contracts without them give the team leverage not the player.  If you do it the other way around the leverage goes to the player.

 

Injuries happen in the NFL.  So one way to avoid it being catastrophic to the team is to not have much guaranteed money so at some point depending on how the contract is worded you can cut your losses without it crippling your team going forward. 

 

The Alex Smith injury is a great example.  The buffoon GM Bruce Allen who refused typically to give more than two years of guaranteed money to any other player -- in order to lure Alex here (and some say thumb his nose at Kirk's agent) gave Alex 4 years worth of guaranteed money.  Alex didn't even finish a full season combined for that 4 year deal, yet he got paid almost fully for that time regardless.  Good fo Alex so no complaint from me -- but kudus to his agent for getting him all that security.   Mahomes and Allen more or less have double the guaranteed money that Alex got -- so they got even more security.

 

Mahomes could talk all day long about what he gave up.  but its nothing like Brady who gave up in real time at that moment money on the table. 

 

Brady's thing wasn't that he took a staggered contract where he got a big time pay day and in real time he set the market but sacrificed by taking a longer contract that severed his ability to maximize his contract going further.  Brady left money on the table right from the jump.  It wasn't him getting paid something obscene but hey 5 years later it might not look that obsence as the cap rises.

 

Your point seems to center on there is nothing to see there as for players wanting a large amount of guaranteed money in a long contract.  You think every player, all of them, want to play it like Kirk Cousins.  But if you listen to ex-agents like Joel Corry who represented players, you'll find that every player see its like that.  Some players do.  Some players don't.  I agree that Mahomes and Allen probably left money on the table when all is said and done.  But that's the sacrifice you often make to get obscene somes of guaranteed money.  

 

 

42 minutes ago, wit33 said:


They went all in for this and next season. The cap hits of Donald, Ramsey, and Cupp last season made this happen (check it out, it’s wild). The willingness of Stafford to play out a deal with no guarantees at 10% of the cap contributed a great deal. Stafford remaining cheap next year allows them to pay those guys owed money and remain “in it” for next season.

 

 

Stafford wanted to leave the Lions.  He wanted to go to the Rams.  He wasn't a FA.  The Rams paid about 45 million on the cap for both Goff-Stafford last year.  Stafford was no martyr.  And now they are talking contract.  You seem to think he will give them a deal.  I bet he maximizes his contract.  Will see.

 

If your point is any staggered contract is a sacrifice than yeah he will do that, just about EVERY Qb signs a staggered contract.  Heck ditto just about every other position for that matter.

 

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5 hours ago, sjinhan said:

If we are going for that second tier bridge QB then i would be most interested in Winston.

 

I'm all in for a 40 TD, 40 INT season from our QB. The roller coaster of emotions alone would be the thrill of a lifetime.

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7 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

There is no chance they are going to put TH out as the opening day starter.  Zero.  Zilch.  Zadda.  Nadda.  Not going to happen.

 

Unlike you I don't live in the absolute world. There is no such thing. If it happens it happens. So be it. Make the most out of it. 

 

By the way, Ron said that the 4 games win streak was because they ran 6 more running plays in those 4 games. You can win a lot with a managerial QB if it comes to that. 

 

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Just now, DWinzit said:

Remember when it was the WR's that were the prima donnas...

It only takes one player to play drama ball and then it's just a matter of time before it spreads like a virus.  

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2 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

 

Wait, so Rodgers is going to demand a new contract even though he has 2 years left on his current deal?

 

I see almost no way GB can give Rodgers a huge new contract, give Adams a huge new contract, and give Valdes-Scantling a huge new contract while they're already $33 million over the cap.

 

And if they do somehow manage to pull that off by backloading the living hell out of those deals, then in 2 years they'll probably be $100 million over the cap and will have to completely and utterly clean house and start over.

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3 minutes ago, RWJ said:

So DramaRodgers will be back to the Packers.  I wonder what Brett Favre is thinking about all of this.  LOL

 

Why would Favre care about what Rodgers does? It is not like Favre is the owner and Rodgers is taking him to the woodshed. 

 

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Just now, zCommander said:

 

Why would Favre care about what Aaron does? It is not like Favre is the owner and Aaron is taking him to the woodshed. 

He has his own drama he created and now he watches DramaRodgers.  Not talking about money just the way the two went about it.  Agreed with what you said but just curious.  That's all.  :)  

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