The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[KDawg]

6 minutes ago, MartinC said:

I’m probably an outlier but I wouldn’t draft him in the first round. He can probably be an NFL starter in a run heavy low pass volume offense and maybe have some good years - but he’s not a guy I think that can elevate an offense. 
 

Hes probably somewhere on the Daniel Jones to Ryan Tannehill scale. 

 

One of my concerns about Kingsbury is he’s used pure progression in the past. I’m not a fan of it - I hope that’s one of the things he’s evolved. 
 

Progression based on read is where you need to be IMO.

I don’t agree with DJ/Tannehill but I can see why someone wouldn’t want him until the second. He doesn’t have the wow factor.

 

Then again, I can see why Caleb Williams would fall to the second in an alternate universe, too (not in this one… zero shot of that)

[HTTRDynasty]

4 minutes ago, KDawg said:

He has more pass attempts per season than Daniels…

But Daniels accounted for a much larger percentage of his offense due to his rushing ability. I’m not completely sold on Daniels either but I would rather have a player who can use his immense rushing ability as a crutch in his early years while he grows as a passer, over someone who will likely have to land in a near-perfect situation (IMO) and be carried by his team to a greater extent while he learns how to become a consistent NFL QB. 

[MartinC]

2 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

But Daniels accounted for a much larger percentage of his offense due to his rushing ability. I’m not completely sold on Daniels either but I would rather have a player who can use his immense rushing ability as a crutch in his early years while he grows as a passer, over someone who will likely have to land in a near-perfect situation (IMO) and be carried by his team to a greater extent while he learns how to become a consistent NFL QB. 

All the top 3 QBs have very good mobility and can use their legs. Daniels tends to tuck it to run once he comes off his read while Williams and Maye tend to keep their eyes up and look to pass when forced to move.

 

But all of them can create out of scheme. Williams is an absolute magician in that regard. 

[KDawg]

Just now, HTTRDynasty said:

But Daniels accounted for a much larger percentage of his offense due to his rushing ability. I’m not completely sold on Daniels either but I would rather have a player who can use his immense rushing ability as a crutch in his early years while he grows as a passer, over someone who will likely have to land in a near-perfect situation (IMO) and be carried by his team to a greater extent while he learns how to become a consistent NFL QB. 

I’m not sure he needs to grow as a passer. The Michigan staff decided they wanted to be a ground and pound running attack to eat clock and control the ball.

 

Meanwhile, they had Roman Wilson who apparently is pretty darn good and McCarthy who makes good decisions and throws a crisp clean ball.

 

Now, because I try to see the entire picture at all times the best I can…

 

That leads to multiple questions.

 

1) if McCarthy was this good, why not air it out? Is it purely strategy to keep the defense off the field and burn clock? Or was it they didn’t know what to expect? Was the pass pro sub par and they wanted to hide it? Was McCarthy? Whatever the reason, they won a natty…

 

2) Why would Harbaugh say he should be drafted one? You always go to bat for your guys, and now that he’s in the NFL mind games are afoot. But that was pretty specific. Is he pining for his dude or trying to dupe some team?

 

3) Why does he look pretty solid as a passer when he does it for the most part, especially so in big moments?

 

4) He starts off slow and takes awhile to get in a rhythm. The natty is a great example of this. Is this a reason they held back throwing?

[clskinsfan]

I watched some High School stuff from JJ as well. He played in a far different offense then. And was an incredible player. The way he climbed the pocket, escapability and the arm strength were evident even at 18 years old. There is a lot to like about him. And I think the offensive system at Michigan might have actually held him back a little bit. While I didnt see a superstar on his college tape. The traits are  there for a good starter in the NFL imo.

 

 

 

[ThatNFLChick]

4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I watched some High School stuff from JJ as well. He played in a far different offense then. And was an incredible player. The way he climbed the pocket, escapability and the arm strength were evident even at 18 years old. There is a lot to like about him. And I think the offensive system at Michigan might have actually held him back a little bit. While I didnt see a superstar on his college tape. The traits are  there for a good starter in the NFL imo.

 

 

 

 

He's a "you can win with him" guy, just not a "they won because of him" guy. 

Edited February 18 by ThatNFLChick

[KDawg]

1 minute ago, ThatNFLChick said:

 

He's a "you can win with him" guy, just not a "they won because of him" guy. 

Not sure I agree with this, either. I don’t think they win the natty without McCarthy,  personally.

 

Having said that… they won more than any of the other guys in the top 3. Those teams certainly didn’t win with those quarterbacks.

 

Teams can be elevated because of them… but USC has been better without Williams. North Carolina has been similar without Maye. LSU won a natty without Daniels not long ago.

 

I’m not sure how you can project that given the facts available and say it so definitively as you did above.

 

I think your premise is probably not far off, though I think he has more value than you do. 
 

I’m not sold on any of these QBs ability to carry a team, to be honest. Any of em.

[ThatNFLChick]

6 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Not sure I agree with this, either. I don’t think they win the natty without McCarthy,  personally.

 

Having said that… they won more than any of the other guys in the top 3. Those teams certainly didn’t win with those quarterbacks.

 

Teams can be elevated because of them… but USC has been better without Williams. North Carolina has been similar without Maye. LSU won a natty without Daniels not long ago.

 

I’m not sure how you can project that given the facts available and say it so definitively as you did above.

 

I think your premise is probably not far off, though I think he has more value than you do. 
 

I’m not sold on any of these QBs ability to carry a team, to be honest. Any of em.

 

Thata not what I mean by that.

 

I mean we never had to see him with a poor defense have to put a team on his back, down 21 points, where the ball is in his hands and he has to throw to win. It just never happened. We saw it multiple times this season with the others. 

We did see what happened the year before. The pressure was on against TCU and McCarthy threw 2 pick 6's. 

Edited February 18 by ThatNFLChick

[samy316]

8 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Not sure I agree with this, either. I don’t think they win the natty without McCarthy,  personally.

 

Having said that… they won more than any of the other guys in the top 3. Those teams certainly didn’t win with those quarterbacks.

 

Teams can be elevated because of them… but USC has been better without Williams. North Carolina has been similar without Maye. LSU won a natty without Daniels not long ago.

 

I’m not sure how you can project that given the facts available and say it so definitively as you did above.

 

I think your premise is probably not far off, though I think he has more value than you do. 
 

I’m not sold on any of these QBs ability to carry a team, to be honest. Any of em.

McCarthy isn’t a “special” QB.  His role on that Michigan team was similar to what Brock Purdy’s role was with the 49ers.  He’s a guy who can get you to a SB, with a GREAT team around him, but the previous poster is right, in that you win “with” him, and not “because” of him.

 

In order to win SB’s like KC, you need a special QB.  One that can carry a team, and does things on the field that aren’t scouted, or scripted.  SF will never beat KC, because they have a “good”

QB in Purdy, but not a special QB that can go toe to toe or throw to throw with Mahomes.  There are only a few QB’s in the NFL that can play up to that level, and those QB’s are also special (Burrow, Allen). When looking at this draft, I’m interested to see who can get to that Mahomes, Burrow, Allen level.  IMP, I think that Williams & Daniel’s are those guys that look to have that kind of talent and wow plays. McCarthy doesn’t have that WOW or “IT” factor to his game.

Edited February 18 by samy316

[KDawg]

1 minute ago, ThatNFLChick said:

 

Thata not what I mean by that.

 

I mean we never had to see him with a poor defense have to put a team on his back, down 21 points, where the ball is in his hands and he has to throw to win. It just never happened. We saw it multiple times this season with the others. 

Couldn’t part of that be because the quarterback made good decisions when the ball was in his hands?

Just now, samy316 said:

McCarthy isn’t a “special” QB.  His role on that Michigan team was similar to what Brock Purdy’s role was with the 49ers.  He’s a guy who can get you to a SB, with a GREAT team around him, but the previous poster is right, in that you win “with” him, and not “because” of him.

 

In order to win SB’s like KC, you need a special QB.  One that can carry a team, and does things on the field that aren’t scouted, or scripted.  SF will never beat KC, because they have a “good”

QB in Purdy, but not a special QB that can go toe to toe or throw to throw with Mahomes.  There are only a few QB’s in the NFL that can play up to that level, and those QB’s are also special (Burrow, Allen).  When looking at this draft, I’m interested to see who can get to that Mahomes, Burrow, Allen level.  IMP, I think that Williams & Daniel’s are those guys that look to have that kind of talent and wow plays.  McCarthy doesn’t have that WOW or “IT” factor to his game.

I said he doesn’t have the wow factor above.

[HTTRDynasty]

9 minutes ago, KDawg said:

I’m not sure he needs to grow as a passer. The Michigan staff decided they wanted to be a ground and pound running attack to eat clock and control the ball.

 

Meanwhile, they had Roman Wilson who apparently is pretty darn good and McCarthy who makes good decisions and throws a crisp clean ball.

 

Now, because I try to see the entire picture at all times the best I can…

 

That leads to multiple questions.

 

1) if McCarthy was this good, why not air it out? Is it purely strategy to keep the defense off the field and burn clock? Or was it they didn’t know what to expect? Was the pass pro sub par and they wanted to hide it? Was McCarthy? Whatever the reason, they won a natty…

 

2) Why would Harbaugh say he should be drafted one? You always go to bat for your guys, and now that he’s in the NFL mind games are afoot. But that was pretty specific. Is he pining for his dude or trying to dupe some team?

 

3) Why does he look pretty solid as a passer when he does it for the most part, especially so in big moments?

 

4) He starts off slow and takes awhile to get in a rhythm. The natty is a great example of this. Is this a reason they held back throwing?

I agree with your questions.  I have similar ones.  But in regards to the first part of your response, I was specifically referring to him growing as “a consistent NFL QB”, not as just a passer. What I mean by that is even if a QB is a great “passer” in college, most QBs still need time to develop their pre- and post-snap processing at the NFL level, which as you know is light years more advanced than at the college level. They also need to learn more advanced blitz schemes, how to set protections, etc. 

 

Players like Daniels can rely on their legs as they figure this all out.  And although McCarthy is fairly athletic, he’s not athletic enough to lean on his legs as he makes the transition.  Players like Williams and Maye can rely on their special off-platform ability as a crutch.   I could see McCarthy needing to sit for at least a year wherever he ends up given he doesn’t have any truly “special” traits to lean on as he makes the transition, at least IMO.  And then you have to wonder about the upside even after letting him sit and learn for a year. 

[clskinsfan]

Love this play from JJ vs. Nebraska as well. Avoids the rush with a full sprint to his left and throws a dime for a TD to Wilson. This play reminds me a lot of Caleb Williams actually. `Great accuracy on a full sprint to the left. It's pretty. 

 

 

 

[KDawg]

1 minute ago, HTTRDynasty said:

I agree with your questions.  I have similar ones.  But in regards to the first part of your response, I was specifically referring to him growing as “a consistent NFL QB”, not as just a passer. What I mean by that is even if a QB is a great “passer” in college, most QBs still need time to develop their pre- and post-snap processing at the NFL level, which as you know is light years more advanced than at the college level. They also need to learn more advanced blitz schemes, how to set protections, etc. 

 

Players like Daniels can rely on their legs as they figure this all out.  And although McCarthy is fairly athletic, he’s not athletic enough to lean on his legs as he makes the transition.  Players like Williams and Maye can rely on their special off-platform ability as a crutch.   I could see McCarthy needing to sit for at least a year wherever he ends up given he doesn’t have any truly “special” traits to lean on as he makes the transition, at least IMO.  And then you have to wonder about the upside even after letting him sit and learn for a year. 

JJ McCarthy is a really, really good athlete.

 

He’s probably going to run a 4.6 and he’s really agile. I suggest watching more of him. 

[Rolo Tomasie]

This all seems like a textbook example of there being too much time to overthink before the draft comes. I'll plant my flag on the "McCarthy is not a first round QB" island, no matter how Twitter and rumored scout conversations trend.

Edited February 18 by Rolo Tomasie
Spelling

[ThatNFLChick]

Just now, KDawg said:

Couldn’t part of that be because the quarterback made good decisions when the ball was in his hands?

 

Meh the best QB in the world has games where they trail. Sorry but I would need to see him in more situations where he didn't have a stout defense, wasn't asked to do much and never trailed.

 

I will say his 2022 game where he tried to come back vs TCU showed a little of that (but they also had to try to come back because he threw two pick 6's)

[samy316]

Strangely enough, I see Daniels as a Burrow type QB, in that he had one special season, but in that season, he showed everyone he had the talent and WOW factor to play like that in the NFL.  His accuracy and his TD to turnover ratio was Joe Burrow like.  I think he can definitely excel in the NFL.

[KDawg]

1 minute ago, Rolo Tomasie said:

This all seems like a textbook example of there being toouch time to overthink before the draft comes. I'll plant my flag on the "McCarthy is not a first round QB" island, no matter how Twitter and rumored scout conversations trend.

That’s okay. No shame in that at all. 
 

We all have our thoughts. 
 

I’m not forming mine from Twitter though. I don’t particularly care what they say. I’ve been fairly down on Caleb/Jayden and Drake (though not so down I’d say not to draft them) since before this draft cycle. 
 

This is all my thoughts here.

 

But I understand and appreciate your perspective.

[HTTRDynasty]

1 minute ago, KDawg said:

JJ McCarthy is a really, really good athlete.

 

He’s probably going to run a 4.6 and he’s really agile. I suggest watching more of him. 

I’ve watched a ton of him. I was comparing him to Daniels as an athlete. And I was comparing him to Williams/Maye as an off-platform thrower. He’s can run, and he can throw off-platform, but he’s not at the level of any of the 3 guys when it comes to their strengths they can use as a crutch at the next level. That was my point. 

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, Rolo Tomasie said:

This all seems like a textbook example of there being toouch time to overthink before the draft comes. I'll plant my flag on the "McCarthy is not a first round QB" island, no matter how Twitter and rumored scout conversations trend.

Personally I am with you about him not being a first rounder. But we have to remember that our evaluations are going to be analytically based from now on. We are trying something different than anyone else in the league. Analytics are favorable for McCarthy. And its one of the reasons I am going to question being strictly analytically based. I am hoping they are going to use some kind of blend of analytics and old school scouting to make their decisions. 

[samy316]

JJ McCarthy is a late first round/second round QB in my eyes.  I live with a Michigan super fan, and watched a LOT of Michigan games on Saturdays.  I never once thought that JJ McCarthy was at the level of, or close to Williams/Daniels or even Maye.   If Bo Nix & Michael Penix didn’t have injury/age issues, I’d draft them before McCarthy too.  I just don’t see the hype with him.  He’s going to get drafted higher than he should be, because there’s QB needy teams that aren’t at the top of the draft, that need to get their “guy”, like Atlanta, Minnesota, Las Vegas and Pittsburgh.

Edited February 18 by samy316

[KDawg]

Just now, HTTRDynasty said:

I’ve watched a ton of him. I was comparing him to Daniels as an athlete. And I was comparing him to Williams/Maye as an off-platform thrower. He’s can run, and he can throw off-platform, but he’s not at the level of any of the 3 guys when it comes to their strengths they can use as a crutch at the next level. That was my point. 

Why does he need a crutch? In fact, why do any of them? I understand the running ability = buys time to develop perspective… it’s the Josh Allen/Lamar tactic of building. And it worked great for them. 
 

But Caleb Williams won’t have time to crutch. If he doesn’t come on strong right away it’s going to get loud.

 

Daniels and Maye probably have more time to crutch, though Maye’s weakness being mechanics doesn’t really allow for much of a crutch.

 

Daniels, as long as he avoids the major contact has the best case of a crutch. And while JJ isn’t Daniels athletically, he’s not all that far off, either. 
 

Both of them have the same issue in some regards: their frame is questionable.

[bird_1972]

24 minutes ago, ThatNFLChick said:

 

He's a "you can win with him" guy, just not a "they won because of him" guy. 

 

How many "they won because of him" guys do you think there are in this draft?

 

Furthermore, how many "they won because of him"s are there currently in the league (besides Mahomes, of course)?

[KDawg]

1 minute ago, samy316 said:

JJ McCarthy is a late first round/second round QB in my eyes.  I live with a Michigan super fan, and watched a LOT of Michigan games on Saturdays.  I never once thought that JJ McCarthy was at the level or close to Williams/Daniels or even Maye.  I just don’t see the hype with him.  He’s going to get drafted higher than he should be, because there’s QB needy teams that aren’t at the top of the draft, that need to get their guy”, like Atlanta, Minnesota, Las Vegas and Pittsburgh.

 

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

Personally I am with you about him not being a first rounder. But we have to remember that our evaluations are going to be analytically based from now on. We are trying something different than anyone else in the league. Analytics are favorable for McCarthy. And its one of the reasons I am going to question being strictly analytically based. I am hoping they are going to use some kind of blend of analytics and old school scouting to make their decisions. 

There is zero wrong with these thought processes. Nothing.

 

I want to point that out. 
 

JJ has been an acquired taste for me. But the more I watch the more I see all the “can do” aspects of his game… and I think he has more “can do” than any of the other quarterbacks.

 

Now, there is a very real concern that his “can do” is not the best in the class at any of the stuff he can.

 

He can create - not as well as Williams.

 

He can run - not as well as Daniels.

 

He can throw the intermediate range - not as well as Maye.

 

He can throw the deep ball - not as well as any of the three

 

He can anticipate throws - this may be his strongest asset comparatively

 

He has great mechanics - maybe not as great as Nix

 

He has a pedigree - not quite like Rattler

 

He has good height - not as good as Maye

 

He has meh frame - on par with Daniels.

 

Lots to be concerned with… for all of these guys. The fact he lacks the clear separation in a wow category creates more than a few valid reasons people don’t view him as a high end first option.

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, bird_1972 said:

how many "they won because of him"s are there currently in the league

There are more than just Mahomes in that category imo. Burrow, Jackson, Allen and Stroud all come to mind.

[ThatNFLChick]

If we are going by analytics McCarthy is right up there but analytics without context is meaningless.

 

 

 

 

 

7 minutes ago, bird_1972 said:

 

How many "they won because of him" guys do you think there are in this draft?

 

Furthermore, how many "they won because of him"s are there currently in the league (besides Mahomes, of course)?

 

I think Williams, Maye and Daniels can all be "they won because of him" guys...

 

In the league?

Mahomes

Allen (but he's also a "they lost because of him" guy)

Jackson

Burrow

Stafford

 

Others certianly have the talent 

 

 

 

 

Edited February 18 by ThatNFLChick