2022 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[Forever A Redskin]

29 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

What I am struggling with most as we approach the draft ...

 

How are we going to maximize our draft capital?

 

On the surface we need a WR2 ... TE ... MLB ... Safety depth ... CB Depth ... OL depth ... DT depth ...

 

Per the team's visits we also need an OT3 (highly ranked) and RB (highly ranked).

 

Tough to square the Top 30 visits with what we seem to need on paper. I KNOW this staff has differing thoughts on how certain players might fit in that we as fans have no insights on. A lot of us feel we need a backup TE because of Logan Thomas' recovery and age. But maybe this staff really thinks John Bates is a future star TE, and Reyes is a huge upside TE2 this year in their minds. Anyway, who knows. But I still have a hard time seeing how we fill WR2, MLB and FS while also drafting a RB and OT high ... without trading back. And truthfully, with 1/2/4 you're only going to be able to fill 2 of those holes, with the 4th being iffy ... then 6/7/7 are truly fliers that you hope stick.

Anyway, as much as I'd love Olave or Hamilton at 11 ... if we go Hamilton at 11 we almost have to go WR at 47. And at that point, you've addressed FS/LB and WR in 2 picks, with RB, OT, LB, TE at play at 113. And whatever you don't do at 113, you likely won't be able to have a reliable player step in with 189 and our 7ths ...

 

I guess a trade-down could happen from 113 ... that's sort of the range in which teams might be willing to overpay to get a guy that falls. So we could theoretically trade a 4th for a 4th and 5th. But even then ...

 

Anyway, rant over.

 

The only thing I would say to consider is that OTs in college often project inside in the pros. Our OT visits are likely guys we see as guards for us. But we do like position flex and the guard having played OT in college gives us flexibility in the event of in-game injuries.

 

Outside of that I agree with your post 100% and is why I am a large supporter of trading down if we can find a partner. If not in the 1st, then definitely in the 2nd. 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

2 minutes ago, KDawg said:

if Houston gives up draft capital from next year they deserve what their record will be. 

 

There are some options for double-trade downs. Instead of going from 11 to 16 for a 2nd (which is an overpay by NO, that should only net us a 3rd really) ... we could go from 11 to 13 with Houston in exchange for a 3rd or a 4th and 5th. Then at 13 if we feel we can bounce a bit further back, that would still be a chance to trade back with Pittsburgh at 20, Green Bay at 22 ... heck even NO at 16 if Penning is still there at 13.

 

Could go ... trade 11 to Houston for 13 and a 3rd. Trade 13 to New Orleans for 16 and a 3rd. So instead of going 1/2/2/4 you would go 1/2/3/3/4 ... just some ideas, idk. One trade is tough to swing, two would be pretty rare ... at some point you just want to get a guy you like, and they might be okay taking Olave at 13. But maybe they get an offer they can't refuse from, say, GB ... and decide to fall back to 22 for 22 and 53 ... and roll with a plethora of BPA picks. Still could get Olave at 22 but if you go that far back you have to be okay with just loading up on talent in a deep class.

 

22, 47, 53, 67, 113 ... you would have added 53 and 67 (2 and 3) at the expense of moving down from #11 to #22. I think I'd do it.

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[Forever A Redskin]

19 minutes ago, Ball Security said:

What do you take from that?  Some combination that  these guys were used less on screens and were targets on more deep shots?

I took it as the receivers often had to adjust to being under-thrown.

[skinsfan93]

Let’s keep in mind the draft won’t address all of our needs. That’s what the second round of free agency is for. Teams will be letting go of some key vets based on who the drafted. 

[skinny21]

17 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

What I am struggling with most as we approach the draft ...

 

How are we going to maximize our draft capital?

 

On the surface we need a WR2 ... TE ... MLB ... Safety depth ... CB Depth ... OL depth ... DT depth ...

 

Per the team's visits we also need an OT3 (highly ranked) and RB (highly ranked).

 

Tough to square the Top 30 visits with what we seem to need on paper. I KNOW this staff has differing thoughts on how certain players might fit in that we as fans have no insights on. A lot of us feel we need a backup TE because of Logan Thomas' recovery and age. But maybe this staff really thinks John Bates is a future star TE, and Reyes is a huge upside TE2 this year in their minds. Anyway, who knows. But I still have a hard time seeing how we fill WR2, MLB and FS while also drafting a RB and OT high ... without trading back. And truthfully, with 1/2/4 you're only going to be able to fill 2 of those holes, with the 4th being iffy ... then 6/7/7 are truly fliers that you hope stick.

Anyway, as much as I'd love Olave or Hamilton at 11 ... if we go Hamilton at 11 we almost have to go WR at 47. And at that point, you've addressed FS/LB and WR in 2 picks, with RB, OT, LB, TE at play at 113. And whatever you don't do at 113, you likely won't be able to have a reliable player step in with 189 and our 7ths ...

 

I guess a trade-down could happen from 113 ... that's sort of the range in which teams might be willing to overpay to get a guy that falls. So we could theoretically trade a 4th for a 4th and 5th. But even then ...

 

Anyway, rant over.

First of all, my feeling is that the team has their needs ranked something like this:

1. WR/Flex

2. RB/OL

3. ILB, depth at corner/DL

 

My best guess is that their choices at 11 will be:

1. Best Receiver - I think this is the route they take as I believe they’d like London or Olave, probably like Wilson, and might even like Williams here.  I’m doubting they get a serious trade down offer and I think 1-2 of those guys will be available.

2a. Trade down

2b. Hamilton

3. Tackle

 

At 47, I don’t think they’ll love the WR value (and they likely took one at 11).  My guess is:

1.  One of the top RBs (I’m guessing Walker or Hall, but that both will be gone)

2. Trade back

3. OL/Flex/ILB/Corner

 

In the 4th:

1.  RB (if they haven’t taken one - mainly because of the value/depth of class at this point)

2.  Trade back

3.  Whatever they haven’t addressed - Receiver/Flex/OL/Corner/ILB/S

 

 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

1 minute ago, skinny21 said:

First of all, my feeling is that the team has their needs ranked something like this:

1. WR/Flex

2. RB/OL

3. ILB, depth at corner/DL

 

My best guess is that their choices at 11 will be:

1. Best Receiver - I think this is the route they take as I believe they’d like London or Olave, probably like Wilson, and might even like Williams here.  I’m doubting they get a serious trade down offer and I think 1-2 of those guys will be available.

2a. Trade down

2b. Hamilton

3. Tackle

 

At 47, I don’t think they’ll love the WR value (and they likely took one at 11).  My guess is:

1.  One of the top RBs (I’m guessing Walker or Hall, but that both will be gone)

2. Trade back

3. OL/Flex/ILB/Corner

 

In the 4th:

1.  RB (if they haven’t taken one - mainly because of the value/depth of class at this point)

2.  Trade back

3.  Whatever they haven’t addressed - Receiver/Flex/OL/Corner/ILB/S

 

 

 

Pretty spot on. I think in the non-trade down version it's very likely that we go ...

1. WR

2. LB/S

4. RB

 

If we are able to trade down from 11 and add a pick in R2 or R3 then ...

 

1. WR

2. LB/S

3. OL

4. RB

 

That leaves 6/7/7 for depth in the secondary, etc.

 

There's definitely Wave 2 of FA as well. I expect we'll add some talent there for sure. I just want some long-term options from this draft. Wish we could turn 11 into a 1/2/2/3/4 so that we can hit WR, DB/LB, OL, RB, TE with those picks and feel pretty good about this year and the future.

[Warhead36]

18 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

There are some options for double-trade downs. Instead of going from 11 to 16 for a 2nd (which is an overpay by NO, that should only net us a 3rd really) ... we could go from 11 to 13 with Houston in exchange for a 3rd or a 4th and 5th. Then at 13 if we feel we can bounce a bit further back, that would still be a chance to trade back with Pittsburgh at 20, Green Bay at 22 ... heck even NO at 16 if Penning is still there at 13.

 

Could go ... trade 11 to Houston for 13 and a 3rd. Trade 13 to New Orleans for 16 and a 3rd. So instead of going 1/2/2/4 you would go 1/2/3/3/4 ... just some ideas, idk. One trade is tough to swing, two would be pretty rare ... at some point you just want to get a guy you like, and they might be okay taking Olave at 13. But maybe they get an offer they can't refuse from, say, GB ... and decide to fall back to 22 for 22 and 53 ... and roll with a plethora of BPA picks. Still could get Olave at 22 but if you go that far back you have to be okay with just loading up on talent in a deep class.

 

22, 47, 53, 67, 113 ... you would have added 53 and 67 (2 and 3) at the expense of moving down from #11 to #22. I think I'd do it.

That would be great but those teams would need a good enough reason to trade up.

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

Here is his wingspan compared to most of the whole group

 

 

[Forever A Redskin]

8 minutes ago, skinsfan93 said:

Let’s keep in mind the draft won’t address all of our needs. That’s what the second round of free agency is for. Teams will be letting go of some key vets based on who the drafted. 

 

How common is it to find starting level talent post draft? I think we got lucky with the bears situation last year with Leno and think it's a bit optimistic to bank on it again this year. I'd much rather trade down AND pick up any good cuts from other teams and let them compete.

 

I think relying on post draft FAs to be players at positions of need is how we end up with David Mayo as our starting Mike backer again this year.

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, Forever A Redskin said:

Super interesting advanced scouting metrics put together by acmepackingcompany called WRAPS Score.

 

https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/nfl-draft-2022-packers/2022/4/9/23017029/2022-nfl-draft-overrated-wide-receivers-based-on-wrops-ras-and-wraps

 

Worth checking out. Further gives me confidence in Pierce, Watson and Pickens (Especially coupled with Pickens best-in-class drop percentage)

 

Only concern about Pickens is Maturity.

 

I went through it.  Interesting.  They are basically compiling stats and RAS scores and combining them.  It actually flashes one of the more dark horse players I've pushed in the later rounds: Kevin Austin.  But using Kevin Austin as an example.  His stats were good.  He made a lot of big plays which their metrics valued.  And he's a really good athlete.  So he's going to shine.  But when you watch him, you can see he's raw and not the most refined and polished route runner among other things.    But I still like him as a late round flier because of his potential.  He has though some character red flags.

 

I like to post stats and RAS, athletic measurements too.  I've been compiling it over time and putting it up on and off.  But that alone has limits.  But in their defense, there isn't really any way IMO to score players via stats with any confidence.  Heck if you go through PFF scores -- their scores and rankings often don't match up that well with each other  That is, because when they rank the players they go past the scores and factor context and other varaibles that scores alone can't compute. 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 15, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[Forever A Redskin]

I'd trade back this year at least a few spots even if it isn't a kings random/bidding and war type haul of picks. I'd even go as far to say I'd be willing to do a trade for compensation slightly favoring the other team on the value chart. Thats how much I like the depth of this draft. We simply don't have enough picks.

 

I would've made the conditional pick for Wentz a guaranteed 2nd if it meant keeping our 3rd this year.

8 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I went through it.  Interesting.  They are basically compiling stats and RAS scores.  It actually flashes some of the more dark roses players I've pushed in the later rounds like Kevin Austin.  But using Austin as an example.  His stats were good.  He made a lot of big plays which their metrics valued.  And he's a really good athlete.  So he's going to shine.  But when you watch him, you can see he's raw and not the most refined and polished route runner among other things.  

 

I like to post stats and RAS, athletics too.  I've been compiling it over time and putting it up on and off.  But that alone has limits.  But in their defense, there isn't really anyway IMO to score players via stats with any confidence.  Heck if you gop through PFF scores -- their scores and rankings often don't match up that well.  That is, because when they rank the players they go past the scores and factor context and other varaibles that scores alone can't compute. 

 

 

 

 

 

Mind expanding on the Dominator score and how it's calculated?

 

Also, is your intention to have the chart complete prior to the draft?

 

I'm a huge advanced stats guy.

Edited April 15, 2022 by Forever A Redskin

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[KDawg]

Look at that. Dude is smooth as silk.

[Skinsinparadise]

11 minutes ago, Forever A Redskin said:

 

Mind expanding on the Dominator score and how it's calculated?

 

I am not really hung up on that score, ditto breakout age but some who have debated me have been so I figure I'd add to the mix partly for their benefit. 

 

https://www.pff.com/news/fantasy-football-predicting-2022-rookie-wide-receivers-dominator-rating-breakout-age

Dominator rating considers the number of touchdowns and receiving yards a particular player commands within his own offense. Breakout age is the age in which a receiver reaches a 20% dominator rating for the first time. Producing at a young age is a solid indication that a player will continue his stretch of production into the pros. After all, when a kid balls out at 19 years old against a bunch of 21- and 22-year-old defensive backs, how can you not be entertained?

Edited April 15, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[KDawg]

31 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

There are some options for double-trade downs. Instead of going from 11 to 16 for a 2nd (which is an overpay by NO, that should only net us a 3rd really) ... we could go from 11 to 13 with Houston in exchange for a 3rd or a 4th and 5th. Then at 13 if we feel we can bounce a bit further back, that would still be a chance to trade back with Pittsburgh at 20, Green Bay at 22 ... heck even NO at 16 if Penning is still there at 13.

 

Could go ... trade 11 to Houston for 13 and a 3rd. Trade 13 to New Orleans for 16 and a 3rd. So instead of going 1/2/2/4 you would go 1/2/3/3/4 ... just some ideas, idk. One trade is tough to swing, two would be pretty rare ... at some point you just want to get a guy you like, and they might be okay taking Olave at 13. But maybe they get an offer they can't refuse from, say, GB ... and decide to fall back to 22 for 22 and 53 ... and roll with a plethora of BPA picks. Still could get Olave at 22 but if you go that far back you have to be okay with just loading up on talent in a deep class.

 

22, 47, 53, 67, 113 ... you would have added 53 and 67 (2 and 3) at the expense of moving down from #11 to #22. I think I'd do it.

Not willing to give up Drake London.

 

And trading to 13 allows someone to trade with a team who is already interested in trading back, Minnesota, to do exactly that. 

[Skinsinparadise]

5 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Look at that. Dude is smooth as silk.

 

Actually I don't want him to have a killer pro day outside of a decent 40 time.  I don't want him to cement himself as a top 10 pick. 

 

 

 

Edited April 15, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[KDawg]

Just now, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Actually I don't have him to have a killer pro day outside of a decent 40 time.  I don't want him to cement himself as a top 10 pick. 

 

 

 

 

I'm hoping for a 4.6 40 to be honest

 

Or maybe lower. Get off his scent!

[skinny21]

2 minutes ago, Forever A Redskin said:

I'd trade back this year at least a few spots even if it isn't a kings random/bidding and war type haul of picks. I'd even go as far to say I'd be willing to do a trade for compensation slightly favoring the other team on the value chart. Thats how much I like the depth of this draft. We simply don't have enough picks.

 

I would've made the conditional pick for Wentz a guaranteed 2nd if it meant keeping our 3rd this year.

There’s a window (depending on the first 10 picks) where we have these guys available to us at 11 - Hamilton, Olave, Lloyd, maybe 1-2 of the Wilson/London/Williams (and maybe Cross/Penning if the team really likes one or both) - and so we have a range to trade back that still guarantees us one of them.  

Landing one of those while gaining a pick(s), even if it’s just a 3rd round comp or a 4th, is probably quite attractive to our FO.  

[Skinsinparadise]

That stinks as for not running, maybe that allows him to drop though

 

 

 

[KDawg]

Just now, Skinsinparadise said:

That stinks as for not running, maybe that allows him to drop though

 

 

 

 

I like it. No 40 time. Unless he's running a 4.8 or lower... it's inconsequential. 

[Forever A Redskin]

Just now, Skinsinparadise said:

That stinks as for not running, maybe that allows him to drop though

 

 

 

 

Kind of a red flag for me. I really wanted to see his 40 and 10/20 yd splits. I worry he won't be able to separate as consistently in the pros as he did in college.

 

He will definitely drop after pushing it back this much only to not run.

[KDawg]

1 minute ago, Forever A Redskin said:

 

Kind of a red flag for me. I really wanted to see his 40 and 10/20 yd splits. I worry he won't be able to separate as consistently in the pros as he did in college.

 

He will definitely drop after pushing it back this much only to not run.

 

Watch the film. Watch the drills. 

 

People care way too much about shorts.

[Skinsinparadise]

1 minute ago, KDawg said:

 

I like it. No 40 time. Unless he's running a 4.8 or lower... it's inconsequential. 

Chase Young didn't run.  Apparently Nakobe Dean won't run.  The mystery of him not running might be what we need to have him drop to 11.  I've seen enough of Drake where I'd risk it without seeing his 40. 

[KDawg]

Just now, Skinsinparadise said:

Chase Young didn't run.  Apparently Nakobe Dean won't run.  The mystery of him not running might be what we need to have him drop to 11.  I've seen enough of Drake where I'd risk it without seeing his 40. 

You can watch a guy and get a feel for his on-field speed. The combine #s are great for risers and for guys you aren't sure on. But guys who are good football players and it's clear... they don't matter as much. I'm with you. I wouldn't be worried about Dean, either. (You probably aren't).

 

He's going to do just fine.