2022 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[RWJ]

7 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

Here's my second question for the room about QB boards:

 

Let's say Pickett, Willis, Corral, and Howell all require a first round pick, but that Ridder and Strong will go in the second.

 

Would you rather use #11 on one of those first four QBs, or pick a BPA position player and use 42 on Ridder or Strong?

IF I knew w/o a doubt that we could draft Ridder at #42 he'd be a steal, IMO.  We could get one of the best MLB prospects out there, even though I like Muma best of them all but he will never be drafted at #11.  Llyod would be a great pick at #11 and by some impossible possibility that FS Hamilton is still on the board we'd get a steal with him at #11. 

[FLSkinz83]

13 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

Here's my second question for the room about QB boards:

 

Let's say Pickett, Willis, Corral, and Howell all require a first round pick, but that Ridder and Strong will go in the second.

 

Would you rather use #11 on one of those first four QBs, or pick a BPA position player and use 42 on Ridder or Strong?

 

The only way I would draft any of these QB's is if we trade down into the 20's....don't want anyone at 11 or 42.

[Going Commando]

12 minutes ago, RWJ said:

IF I knew w/o a doubt that we could draft Ridder at #42 he'd be a steal, IMO.  We could get one of the best MLB prospects out there, even though I like Muma best of them all but he will never be drafted at #11.  Llyod would be a great pick at #11 and by some impossible possibility that FS Hamilton is still on the board we'd get a steal with him at #11. 

 

For the purposes of this scenario, let's say that Ridder and Strong will absolutely be available in the second round.  Either at 42 or a very easy trade up that we manage that doesn't touch 11.  So in that scenario 11 can be spent on anything.

[GhostofAlvinWalton]

31 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

Here's my second question for the room about QB boards:

 

Let's say Pickett, Willis, Corral, and Howell all require a first round pick, but that Ridder and Strong will go in the second.

 

Would you rather use #11 on one of those first four QBs, or pick a BPA position player and use 42 on Ridder or Strong?

Strong 100%

[Koolblue13]

32 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

Here's my second question for the room about QB boards:

 

Let's say Pickett, Willis, Corral, and Howell all require a first round pick, but that Ridder and Strong will go in the second.

 

Would you rather use #11 on one of those first four QBs, or pick a BPA position player and use 42 on Ridder or Strong?

I'd rather Lloyd and Ridder than Corral and Clarck.

[RWJ]

12 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

For the purposes of this scenario, let's say that Ridder and Strong will absolutely be available in the second round.  Either at 42 or a very easy trade up that we manage that doesn't touch 11.  So in that scenario 11 can be spent on anything.

and.......what follows anything at the end?

[Skinsinparadise]

Christian Watson.  Watched him some tonight.  What a freak in terms of his breakaway speed with the ball in his hands.  Long strider.  Big play waiting to happen.  He's 6 '4, 211.

 

In the game versus Northern Iowa I watched, the announcers ironically mentioned there were scouts at the game and cited from Seattle and Washington.   Most said he was the top receiver at the Senior Bowl.  Early 3rd round?

 

 

Pro:

 

Freakish speed for a dude that size -- explosive player.  Has good short and long speed.

 

Good run blocker -- physical, even plays with a mean streak on that front at times, not perfect though sometimes he whiffs but definitely a willing blocker

 

Can play the hybrid role -- used on end arounds and sweeps.  They even hand the ball off to him.   

 

Well rounded receiver from the context of playing every spot.  Played, X, Z and Y. 

 

Tracks the ball well -- can be both a weapon with the long ball-posts, etc and in the flat

 

Con:

 

Inferior competiton -- he was wide open so many times without it looking like he had to so much to do to shake off his defender, a lot of comebacks, crossers

 

Didn't see a lot of press so tough for me to judge him on that

 

I recall some had issue with Terry's college stats so this dude's stats are similar in that his yard numbers aren't big, they are good but not great but like Terry this dude had a sick YPC.  And he had that every one of his college years

 

He's not a Drake London type or Burks as for contested catches, hands look good but not great

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 3, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, Going Commando said:

Here's my second question for the room about QB boards:

 

Let's say Pickett, Willis, Corral, and Howell all require a first round pick, but that Ridder and Strong will go in the second.

 

Would you rather use #11 on one of those first four QBs, or pick a BPA position player and use 42 on Ridder or Strong?

 

At this moment in time, I'd take a QB at 11 if it were me.  Even though I love Lloyd, Dean, Burks.  

 

Maybe if Ridder runs a 4.4 tomorrow I would change my mind.   It's possible that Ridder has some freakish speed-agility numbers but if he does he might end up going in the late first. 

 

I will say I get the logic of taking a QB in the 2nd round considering arguably the top 6 QB prospects aren't a mile off each other.   So I wouldn't flip out if they did it.  Normally I hate the idea of passing over the first round for a QB if in need of one for the 2nd round -- but this draft feels a bit different. 

Edited March 3, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[mistertim]

1 hour ago, Going Commando said:

Here's my second question for the room about QB boards:

 

Let's say Pickett, Willis, Corral, and Howell all require a first round pick, but that Ridder and Strong will go in the second.

 

Would you rather use #11 on one of those first four QBs, or pick a BPA position player and use 42 on Ridder or Strong?

 

I'd go with the 1st, but sort of like @SkinsinparadiseI wouldn't necessarily freak out if we waited until the 2nd, though I'd still quesiton whether it was actually worth it, considering the bust rate of QBs taken after the 1st round. The gap between the first group and the 2nd isn't enormous.

 

Ridder's physical abilities and intangibles definitely intrigue me, but his really spotty accuracy and decision making worry me. I really like Strong's accuracy and arm, but his knee injury along with already not being very mobile is a bit worrying there.

 

I guess it all depends on how thy have the guys graded. If they have one or two of the guys in the first group graded out as a 1st rounder then take him at 11. Don't try to get cute and trade back. If they truly don't have any of the guys available at 11 graded as 1st rounders then they probably shouldn't reach.

 

I have a feeling there are going to be a fair amount of fans who freak out, no matter what happens. It's a very polarizing draft.

[The Rook]

Here is a good profile of Christian Watson:

 

 

 

 

 

The Rook

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

14 hours ago, Going Commando said:

What is everyone's QB board pre-combine?  Just do the top six.

 

For pure potential?

Willis

Ridder

Corral

Pickett

Howell

Strong

 

For best chance to actually reach that potential?

Pickett

Ridder

Corral

Willis

Howell

...

not Strong, I've got him off my draft board due to medicals.  I don't think he's getting drafted in the first 2 days either.

 

Also realize this makes it look like I'm really down on Howell.  I do not dislike Howell.  He's the moxie version of Taylor Heinicke in this years class.  I like how he's found a way to get stuff done.  I don't think any of the QB's is worth #11, even with the position premium.  But I'm trying to talk myself into it.

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

3 hours ago, Going Commando said:

Here's my second question for the room about QB boards:

 

Let's say Pickett, Willis, Corral, and Howell all require a first round pick, but that Ridder and Strong will go in the second.

 

Would you rather use #11 on one of those first four QBs, or pick a BPA position player and use 42 on Ridder or Strong?

 

The latter.  This implies that no QB's are selected #1-10, which means the board is wide open at that point.  I would also prefer trading back from #11, even if it's less value than you're supposed to get, and grabbing a QB later in the 1st.

 

Honestly, I'd take trading back in the 1st and grabbing a 2023 2nd rounder with no benefit in this years class.  Just anything.  That gives us a little more ammo if we realize the QB rookie we get now, blows...we can then hopefully move up in 2023 for one with that little extra ammo.

 

You did tiers earlier, so I'm going to do an oddball tier ranking here.

 

Tier 2 (as of right now I don't think there is a Tier 1 guy)

Pickett and Ridder

Tier 3

Corral

Tier 4

Howell

Tier UDFA

Strong

 

Tier I can't make up my mind at all

Willis (is he Tier 2?  Tier 3?  Tier 4?  Ask me anytime at all and you'll get a different answer each time)

[Skinsinparadise]

8 hours ago, mistertim said:

 

I'd go with the 1st, but sort of like @SkinsinparadiseI wouldn't necessarily freak out if we waited until the 2nd, though I'd still quesiton whether it was actually worth it, considering the bust rate of QBs taken after the 1st round. The gap between the first group and the 2nd isn't enormous.

 

 

some where arguing in the QB thread, that taking a 2nd round QB is some sort of debacle because of the bust rate.  I get the point and I've made it before.  But its tough for me be that abstract.   In every draft, I got to look at the specifics.  Sometimes things are different.

 

So for me even though I still prefer usng a first rounder on a QB.  I got some intrigue albeit concerns about Strong and Ridder.  For example I had no intrigue about Trask last year. 

Edited March 3, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[IrepDC]

2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

some where arguing in the QB thread, that taking a 2nd round QB is some sort of debacle because of the bust rate.  I get the point and I've made it before.  But its tough for me be that abstract.   In every draft, I got to look at the specifics.  Sometimes things are different.

 

So for me even though I still prefer usng a first rounder on a QB.  I got some intrigue albeit concerns about Strong and Ridder.  For example I had no intrigue about Trask last year. 

The relative value a "2nd round QB" will have in this draft, if the QB hype doesn't pick up, isn't much different from a "1st round QB" this year. That's why that rule of thought has to be looked at in context.

 

Ridder or Howell at the top of the 2nd may even have more value than Pickett, Willis, or Corral at 11. The difference being the game changer you can draft at 11 to go with Ridder or Howell.

 

This is an interesting draft class. The combine and workouts could absolutely destroy the "weak QB draft" narrative, but we'll see.

[IrepDC]

We should already be talking with teams at the bottom of the 1st and top of the 2nd about a potential trade. Get that communication open as soon as possible.

 

During this draft, a well timed trade could be the make or break move; especially if we don't go QB at 11. One of these rookie QBs will need to be a Commander in 2022. 

[Going Commando]

2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

some where arguing in the QB thread, that taking a 2nd round QB is some sort of debacle because of the bust rate.  I get the point and I've made it before.  But its tough for me be that abstract.   In every draft, I got to look at the specifics.  Sometimes things are different.

 

So for me even though I still prefer usng a first rounder on a QB.  I got some intrigue albeit concerns about Strong and Ridder.  For example I had no intrigue about Trask last year. 

 

Me too, except I did like Trask last year (and Mills).  Every draft is particular and you have to evaluate every player on his own merits, and you have to account for your own system and roster situation in the evaluation.  Coming up with hard and fast rules like "2nd round QBs are worthless" is just lazy thinking in the absence of real evaluation.

 

Second round prospects would have value to us since we have no long term prospects at the position on our roster.  I'm not worried about the bust rate of prospects since that is the most general analysis possible and those rates depend on a myriad of factors that might not apply to my situation.  I'm worried about whether I think a specific guy can develop into a long term starter or not.  If yes, then getting him in the second is just better value than getting him in the first.

 

I don't care about the fifth year option argument either.  One more cheap season of QB play isn't going to make or break my build, and getting a stud in the first round and then getting my QB at a better draft value is worth far more than reaching on that QB to make sure I get an extra season of cheap team control.  If my QB pans out, I'm not going to have issues paying  him a big extension.

 

For me the consideration is "do I like Malik Willis, Matt Corral, and/or Kenny Pickett enough over Ridder/Strong (or maybe even Howell) to give up Devin Lloyd?"  I'm not sure.  With Willis, yeah probably.  With Pickett? Maybe.  With Corral?  Probably not.

[Going Commando]

What I was trying to suss out by asking if we'd rather take a QB at 11 or get one of the others at 42 is how big a gap we have between our tiers in our board consensus.  The average rankings hint at the gap, but can't be taken as a full measurement of that gap.  The sense I'm getting is that the board doesn't actually believe there to be a big gap between tier 1 (Willis/Corral), tier 2 (Pickett/Howell), and tier 3 (Strong/Ridder).

 

My guess is that, if we did a collective big board, our top six QBs would average out to a tightly clustered placement between ~15 - ~45.  We're not sure any of them are worth 11, but all are worth 42.

[HigSkin]

 

[Going Commando]

This is an entertaining highlight video:

 

 

The dude has true knockback power.  That final step or two into contact is just incredible explosive and generates so much force.  His build looks a little lanky but he's got a thick base and his functional power is more like an edge rusher's than a typical stack linebacker.

 

Hard not to get excited about the speed and size we could put on the field at LBer with him and Jamin Davis.

 

------------

 

 

Jahan Dotson measuring in at only 5'11 178.  He's on the small side and is going to need to run a low 4.3 to have a chance to go in the first round IMO.  Could be a really interesting value proposition for us at 42.

Edited March 3, 2022 by Going Commando

[duffy]

4 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

This is an entertaining highlight video:

 

 

The dude has true knockback power.  That final step or two into contact is just incredible explosive and generates so much force.  His build looks a little lanky but he's got a thick base and his functional power is more like an edge rusher's than a typical stack linebacker.

 

Hard not to get excited about the speed and size we could put on the field at LBer with him and Jamin Davis.

 

------------

 

 

Jahan Dotson measuring in at only 5'11 178.  He's on the small side and is going to need to run a low 4.3 to have a chance to go in the first round IMO.  Could be a really interesting value proposition for us at 42.

Watched a lot of psu games. Love me some Dotson. Big playmaker in a small package. I'd obviously rather land a Burks or London due to their size, but Dotson is a nice player, too. 

[Skinsinparadise]

Good, I noticed his shoulders appeared broader to me when I saw on him TV yesterday.  Corral is my top guy but my number one issue with him is his size.

 

 

 

Edited March 3, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[pcbothwel]

5 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Good, I noticed his shoulders appeared broader to me when I saw on him TV yesterday.  Corral is my top guy but my number one issue with him is his size.

 

 

 

 

Agreed. If we pass on him at 11 I think it may be the biggest miss in the last decade. He profiles as a Carr type QB and you can win a SB with #8-12 QB.

[VirginiaVibes]

2 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Good, I noticed his shoulders appeared broader to me when I saw on him TV yesterday.  Corral is my top guy but my number one issue with him is his size.

 

 

 

 

Coming in at close to 6'2 and being over 210 pounds is great for him. Good hand size too. 

 

So he is taller than Willis and Howell. 

Weighs only 8 pounds less than Willis.

And has bigger hands than Pickett, Willis and Howell 

[VirginiaVibes]

 

[Skinsinparadise]

43 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

Me too, except I did like Trask last year (and Mills).  Every draft is particular and you have to evaluate every player on his own merits, and you have to account for your own system and roster situation in the evaluation.  Coming up with hard and fast rules like "2nd round QBs are worthless" is just lazy thinking in the absence of real evaluation.

 

 

Yeah I recall.  For me I didn't like Trask. I was ok with Mills but didn't love him.  Ironically i was pushing Ridder as a 2nd round option for a good chunk of the 2020 college season but alas he never came out.  I still like Ridder, far from love him but the big thing for me is how athletic is he?  If he's freakish athletic -- some say he is, some say he isn't -- that will really get my attention so today is a big day for me as for Ridder.  Why don't I love him -- very inconsistent accuracy and shaky at times decision making.  But I can overlook that to an extent if he has RB-WR type athleticism.

 

46 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

 

Second round prospects would have value to us since we have no long term prospects at the position on our roster.  I'm not worried about the bust rate of prospects since that is the most general analysis possible and those rates depend on a myriad of factors that might not apply to my situation.  I'm worried about whether I think a specific guy can develop into a long term starter or not.  If yes, then getting him in the second is just better value than getting him in the first.

 

 

Agree.  I was arguing a varaition of this point on the QB thead yesterday.

 

47 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

For me the consideration is "do I like Malik Willis, Matt Corral, and/or Kenny Pickett enough over Ridder/Strong (or maybe even Howell) to give up Devin Lloyd?"  I'm not sure.  With Willis, yeah probably.  With Pickett? Maybe.  With Corral?  Probably not.

 

Granted mocks as we know are far from always accurate but I see Lloyd in the top 10 more often than I don't.   How would you feel if Lloyd is likely not in the picture?

 

 

1 minute ago, VirginiaVibes said:

 

 

Pickett lost some weight, I gather.  Just listened to his coach say he was 225.  And Corral gained some weight.  Only 5 pounds of difference between them.  And Pickett is almost 2 inches taller so as purely from a weight standpoint, Pickett is actually now a hair scrawnier than Corral.