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2022 Comprehensive Draft Thread


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21 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

 

4. Mac Jones is WAY WAY better than advertised, and it must be said a thousand times over. The Patriots have nothing but garbage at the playmaking positions other than TE. They have no exceptional athletes or weapons at WR or RB, Damien Harris is a good solid between the tackles RB, but he's not super elite, the WR's are yuck as hell (and I say this as a fan of Harry and disappointed he's a bust), they do have two solid though not elite TE's. I guess the OL is solid to good (i think, I don't know). People aren't as insanely impressed as they should be with him. He's doing this with very, very little around him. It's amazing. 

 

 

 

To me Mac Jones wasn't much of a dark horse player.  He put up monster numbers in Alabama.   His range of accuracy IMO was really good.  I constantly compared him on this thread to Kirk but with more mobility.  Not that Mac was that mobile but he can move some -- he wasn't a statue like for example Kyle Trask. 

 

I give a lot of credit to volsmet who used to post a lot on the draft threads and helped me think of how to judge QBs in a different way than i was doing by him ironically constantly urging me to rewatch Haskins.  He wasn't a fan of his play.   He got me to focus on accuracy all the around the field -- and suggested don't be fooled by college offenses that didn't challenge their QB outside of their sweet spot ala Ohio State.  Also he had me focus on footwork/movement outside the pocket when the QB was flushed out and what happens to their accuracy then. 

 

Haskins is spilled milk so I don't want to focus on him but using that same approach Jones IMO really shone.  He can throw in routes, out routes, in the flat, intermediate, deep.  He can change speeds on his throws if needed.  His footwork wasn't a mess when he was flushed out of the pocket.  He didn't IMO have any insane attribute.  He doesn't have a rifle.  He's not fast.  But his accuracy and footwork was advanced IMO. 

 

And he was a master as I pointed out at selling play action (useful skill for the pros) and manipulating defenses with his eyes-body language.  My mistake on him was I liked him but didn't love him but I would have taken him in a heartbeat at 19. 

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On 10/24/2021 at 6:59 AM, Skinsinparadise said:

On another note, something I, @stevemcqueen1 and @KDawg took some grief on in the last draft thread -- for pushing the power of having TWO RBs.

 

A GB reporter talked on 980 about how GB fans didn't get why they drafted Dillon high when they already had Aaron Jones, it was an unpopular move with them but now they get it.  He went on about how that two headed monster at RB has made their offense even more dangerous. 

 

https://zonecoverage.com/2021/packers/aj-dillon-has-become-what-the-packers-need-him-to-be/

We’re four weeks into the season, and it’s clear the Green Bay Packers are at their best when they run the ball.

It sounds odd to say that when you’ve got the 2020 MVP at the helm, but the strong running game makes Rodgers’ life much easier. It takes the pressure off of him and the wide receivers while adding a threat to the play-action game. Of course, it helps when you have a dynamic duo of backs. We’ve seen just how vital Aaron Jones is to this offense, and it appears that his running mate, A.J. Dillon, is also a game-changer.

 

Interesting, this draft probably isn't the draft for it. No top tier guys, though some good 2nd and 3rd tier guys. If we target the position in round 3-5 I wouldn't complain, but I'd prefer they wait for the more offensive oriented '23 class. 

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21 hours ago, Rex Tomb said:

Carson Strong... thoughts?

 

Seen him in person twice, against Idaho State in September, and New Mexico State in October (bummed I missed the Hawaii game). He's basically a tape scout guy because the #'s are completely a mess due to paucity of talent he's facing on defense, and the team itself throws a ton of bubble screens/short passes that ramp up completion percentages. He definitely has an NFL arm, no question, he's accurate on his deep throws generally. He's a pocket guy only. No Konami Code to his game. 

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12 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

To me Mac Jones wasn't much of a dark horse player.  He put up monster numbers in Alabama.   His range of accuracy IMO was really good.  I constantly compared him on this thread to Kirk but with more mobility.  Not that Mac was that mobile but he can move some -- he wasn't a statue like for example Kyle Trask. 

 

I give a lot of credit to volsmet who used to post a lot on the draft threads and helped me think of how to judge QBs in a different way than i was doing by him ironically constantly urging me to rewatch Haskins.  He wasn't a fan of his play.   He got me to focus on accuracy all the around the field -- and suggested don't be fooled by college offenses that didn't challenge their QB outside of their sweet spot ala Ohio State.  Also he had me focus on footwork/movement outside the pocket when the QB was flushed out and what happens to their accuracy then. 

 

Haskins is spilled milk so I don't want to focus on him but using that same approach Jones IMO really shone.  He can throw in routes, out routes, in the flat, intermediate, deep.  He can change speeds on his throws if needed.  His footwork wasn't a mess when he was flushed out of the pocket.  He didn't IMO have any insane attribute.  He doesn't have a rifle.  He's not fast.  But his accuracy and footwork was advanced IMO. 

 

And he was a master as I pointed out at selling play action (useful skill for the pros) and manipulating defenses with his eyes-body language.  My mistake on him was I liked him but didn't love him but I would have taken him in a heartbeat at 19. 

 

I was just lazy with him. Alabama hasn't had many top end QB prospects until Tua, they're loaded with ridiculous weapons, and lines, so it makes it monstrously difficult to tell who is actually doing the job, and whose riding on coat tails. I also didn't like that he was in 1970's shape (totally irrelevant, but alarming that a guy auditioning for the NFL in this day and age wouldn't be match fit, to borrow soccer nomenclature). At the end of the day I had no opinion on him one way or another. He'd done the business to earn the 1st round grade, but beyond that, I wasn't as sold I was with Fields and Lawrence, and I liked Lance's long term upside bet. Wasn't sold Mac was anything more than basically a QB whose ceiling would be 12-18th good in the league. 

 

Clearly he's way better than all of that. I don't speak to the technical details like footwork, mechanics, what not, as you dig into that stuff and usually find a ton of disagreement and contradictions. He just looked solid to me. At this point I don't trust my QB evals anyway beyond generally sniffing out sure busts (I've missed on Rosen and Allen but otherwise have been good). 

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19 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

 

Interesting, this draft probably isn't the draft for it. No top tier guys, though some good 2nd and 3rd tier guys. If we target the position in round 3-5 I wouldn't complain, but I'd prefer they wait for the more offensive oriented '23 class. 

 

3rd-5th round often can be fine at that spot.  Outside of the top RBs in the last draft, I really liked Khalil Herbert among others.  Herbert is looking really good.  He was taken in the 6th round.  Even better than him is Elijah Mitchell, who SF took in the 6th round. 

 

I haven't really dived in yet to the RBs but there are some IMO who are intriguing who I've mentioned here and there.  There are usuallly RBs to be had in just about any draft.  I think we should be able to pull one in this draft.  It's IMO a need for sure.

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1 hour ago, The Consigliere said:

 

I was just lazy with him. Alabama hasn't had many top end QB prospects until Tua, they're loaded with ridiculous weapons, and lines, so it makes it monstrously difficult to tell who is actually doing the job, and whose riding on coat tails. I also didn't like that he was in 1970's shape (totally irrelevant, but alarming that a guy auditioning for the NFL in this day and age wouldn't be match fit, to borrow soccer nomenclature). At the end of the day I had no opinion on him one way or another. He'd done the business to earn the 1st round grade, but beyond that, I wasn't as sold I was with Fields and Lawrence, and I liked Lance's long term upside bet. Wasn't sold Mac was anything more than basically a QB whose ceiling would be 12-18th good in the league. 

 

Clearly he's way better than all of that. I don't speak to the technical details like footwork, mechanics, what not, as you dig into that stuff and usually find a ton of disagreement and contradictions. He just looked solid to me. At this point I don't trust my QB evals anyway beyond generally sniffing out sure busts (I've missed on Rosen and Allen but otherwise have been good). 

 

It's not that I think anyone has cracked the QB spot.  Obviously its really hard.  So lol, I am definitely not claiming to have cracked it.  I've been wrong on some QBs.  But Mac to me seemed to be one of the easier ones.   He had some loud critics on this thread -- so the debate on him was a bit more mixed than some of the other QBs.  And I get the whole hey its Alabama so he's loaded with weapons.  Yeah Alabama was loaded but....

 

It feels like my best shot at judging a QB is to watch his range of accuracy.  I talk about this sometimes in the training camp threads when I've been able to sit through a series of training camp practices where you can see their range because they test so many different types of throws in camp and do them repeatedly unlike a game -- Haskins to me was so textbook because the same types of throws where he was erratic throwing in Ohio State overlapped what you saw in camp.   You could see Colt McCoy's range well, Kirk, etc.   It's cool to just sit and watch it.

 

When watching a college QB, its tough to see it in the same way in just one game because its rare to see a full range of throws multiple times.  If I see for example a college QB complete a wicked intermediate out route, that's awesome   Some dude will post it on twitter or someone like Riddick will highlight a throw like that on an NFL program and define the player by that throw.  But that was just one throw.  If you watch 5 plus games you'll see enough typically to have a feel for the QBs range and notice if that throw is a fluke or can they consistently make it? 

 

Bringing this to Mac.  His range of accuracy looked special.  Some would say well the receivers were wide open.  Yeah that was often true.  But if you watched enough throws you'd see some good tight window throws.  And even if the WR was wide open, his ball placement was often special.  He would hit the receiver in stride.  I mentioned this in camp, you'd watch Haskins even on throws in the flat the receiver had to turn back often to catch the ball, ball placement was "meh".  Watching Heinicke, i love his moxie but some of his throws are wild.  You didn't see that with Mac.  the main weakness from what I saw as to his accuracy was on the deep ball, sometimes the WR had to turn back to catch the ball.  But his accuracy in the flat and for intermediate throws looked superb to me.

 

The thing that I hesitated on him was he didn't have any special gift physically.  But the thing that I should have hung on to and I did to some extent (but not enoough in retrospect) was his intangibles were sold as special. 

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For those wondering I think Landon Collins was ranked like 76th or 78th out of 86 Safeties.  Jon Bostic also had a terrible rating.  For what its wroth Matt Ion. actually has a better rating at DT than the start Payne, though I trust you guys when you say the PFF ratings are not accurate for Payne.

Ricky Seal Jones has  a really good rating.  I think different offense and defense systems do sometimes contribute to certain positions getting relatively high or low ratings.  Its probably some systems give the position harder assignments than others.  Our system tends to be kind to TE's.  Wasn't Logan Thomas ranked liked 7th last year or something?   Seals Jones has done a good job at filling in but do I really think he is the 23rd best TE out of 69 in the league.  Probably not--just like I thought Logan was probably more in the 11-20 range of TE's last year rather than top 10.

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Former Maryland Terp and current Ole Miss Rebel linebacker Chance Campbell won SEC defensive player of the week.  Any feel for how he is viewed as a prospect.  As a Terp fan, my impression is he is a really good run defender and serviceable as a pass defender.

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47 minutes ago, philibusters said:

 

Ricky Seal Jones has  a really good rating.  I think different offense and defense systems do sometimes contribute to certain positions getting relatively high or low ratings.  Its probably some systems give the position harder assignments than others.  Our system tends to be kind to TE's.  Wasn't Logan Thomas ranked liked 7th last year or something?   Seals Jones has done a good job at filling in but do I really think he is the 23rd best TE out of 69 in the league.  Probably not--just like I thought Logan was probably more in the 11-20 range of TE's last year rather than top 10.

 

Seals-Jones has a better rating with PFF than Thomas did last year.  Thomas had a 64 from PFF last year, I couldn't find how high that ranked him.  You might be thinking of the TE coach touting him?

 

I like Seals-Jones, not as a top TE but backup.  Cooley, who knows a thing or two about the spot, seems high on him.  And Cooley has been a cynic about the TEs we've had.  Rivera when asked weeks back what player might be a surprise sleeper on this team he cited Seals-Jones. 

 

https://www.nbcsports.com/washington/football-team/washingtons-te-coach-sees-logan-thomas-among-top-complete-tight-ends

“I think right now, when I talk about a complete tight end, he’s got to be in the top five, six or seven in the league," Hoener said. "As far as the way he blocks, his total attitude as a real pro, his leadership qualities, and then his production as a receiver obviously is proven now. And I just look for that to keep going up and up.”

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1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Seals-Jones has a better rating with PFF than Thomas did last year.  Thomas had a 64 from PFF last year, I couldn't find how high that ranked him.  You might be thinking of the TE coach touting him?

 

I like Seals-Jones, not as a top TE but backup.  Cooley, who knows a thing or two about the spot, seems high on him.  And Cooley has been a cynic about the TEs we've had.  Rivera when asked weeks back what player might be a surprise sleeper on this team he cited Seals-Jones. 

 

https://www.nbcsports.com/washington/football-team/washingtons-te-coach-sees-logan-thomas-among-top-complete-tight-ends

“I think right now, when I talk about a complete tight end, he’s got to be in the top five, six or seven in the league," Hoener said. "As far as the way he blocks, his total attitude as a real pro, his leadership qualities, and then his production as a receiver obviously is proven now. And I just look for that to keep going up and up.”

 

I am not sure exactly what I was thinking, but possibly it was your quote.   In the preseason rankings, PFF ranked Logan Thomas as the 14th best TE heading in the 2021 season.

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Serious question.  If you don't have a legit quarterback in today's NFL then you have nothing and NOTHING else matters.  History has shown time and time again that finding QBs in the draft is a crap shoot at best.   Would you take a QB with each of you first 2 or maybe even 3 picks?  

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Passing on the opportunity to trade a modest amount to go up and get Mac Jones will prove to be one of Rivera’s biggest blunders, and may eventually get him fired. 
 

I knew jones was being slept on, I knew it as soon as Shanny was rumored to love the guy that he was a great prospect. He fell cause he wasn’t Lamar or Mahomes or super flashy. Guess who else wasn’t like that? The guy he replaced that’s down in Tampa Bay toying with teams in his mid forties. I bet Kyle is really really second guessing the Lance decision, there’s a long time to go, but they could have stood pat and kept their picks and taken Mac. That’s not aging too well at the moment.

 

We should have gone up and gotten Mac, and if we did, this whole messy situation where we are in essentially no mans land probably wouldn’t look so messy. They cannot punt on the position again, they need to identify someone they believe in and go get him. No more half ass effort at the most important position in all of sports. 

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1 hour ago, kwitt said:

Serious question.  If you don't have a legit quarterback in today's NFL then you have nothing and NOTHING else matters.  History has shown time and time again that finding QBs in the draft is a crap shoot at best.   Would you take a QB with each of you first 2 or maybe even 3 picks?  

 

QB is paramount.  But that line of thinking is flawed.

 

Some QB's need more time and less asked of them to develop.  Look at Dak Prescott.  The team was good enough he didn't need to do much, and they could take things much slower with him.

 

A good team will make developing a QB easier.  There's less pressure on them.  Less heroics demanded of them.  They can focus on the basics.

 

Tom Brady's first few years were with a great defense and offensive line.  They brought in a HoF bellcow RB (Curtis Martin) to help make things easier for one of his earlier seasons too.

 

Russell Wilson definitely benefited from an elite defense keeping scores low so he didn't have to be in a shootout.  Just a few good drives early on.

 

Ben Roethlisberger's process was the same as Dak Prescott.  What he was asked of offensively in 2003 was super basic.  The team around him was good enough he could slowly develop.

 

If you could draft a QB and immediately know if you won the lottery, then sure, your method would be great.  But it takes the development aspect out of the equation.

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33 minutes ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

 

If you could draft a QB and immediately know if you won the lottery, then sure, your method would be great.  But it takes the development aspect out of the equation.

 

Agree. A supporting cast is essential. 

 

But the more I've digested the position the more i've arrived to the conclusion that the makeup of the QB is absolutely essential to the plot.  For example, Haskins IMO failed in part because he lacked the makeup.  If your coaching staff has to brainstorm how to be Anthony Robbins like to light a fire under the dude and get him to show up on time and prepare for a game, etc -- that's a problem.  The QB has to be self-motivated.  You can't baby sit a player all the time. 

 

Not to pick on Haskins since he's not an isolated case. Some have the fire and some don't.  You can't change a player's personality drive and personality.   That doesn't make a player a good or bad person.  It's like any profession, some are special and some not so much, much of that is about drive.

 

Jim Nagy who scouted for years and now runs the Senior Bowl has talked about it.  He talked up Herbert and Mac Jones BEFORE excelling in the pros.  He talked up their makeup and drive.   Shanny has said you don't know about the QBs until you have them in the building but when you do a key factor that seperates them is work ethic.  Gibbs has said the same. 

 

My favorite book about QBs is from Arians and a big part of his thesis is the QB needs to have a special makeup.   In short, to be a great QB according to him you have to be obsessed with mastering your craft.  He likened it to a golf swing.  To gain that consistency you got to work at it constantly.  And to win you need to out prepare or at least keep pace with the defense coordinator you are about to face to excel. 

 

Bill Belichick has a losing record without Tom Brady.   Belichick didn't make Brady.  Brady did more IMO to make Belichick than the other way around.   As someone pointed out, Belichick didn't load up Jones with weapons yet he's doing well regardless. 

 

Cincy is the closest thing according to some as a dumpster fire organization to this one.  Yet Burrow right now has them as the top seed in the AFC.  It's not because Cincy turns their prospects into gold but because Burrow is a special dude, great talent and great drive.  We IMO need to find a QB like that.

 

When we've had above average QB play or even leadership from that spot, we've won.  2012, 2015-2016, first half of 2018, we've won.

 

IMO when delving into these QBs we should pay special attention as to their personalites and drive.  In our professions, I am sure we've all seen the power of drive that seperates people.  I think its folly to assume that all QB prospects are equally self motivated, equally driven, and have equal leadership skills.  There are major differences on that count from one player to the next.  Not saying you are saying otherwise. i am just saying for me the more I dive into QBs over the years the more i am obsessed with finding QBs with those qualities.

 

When i hear stories about Josh Rosen not working hard and leaving early.  i am not blaming that on the Arizona Cardnals.  I am not even blaming it on Rosen -- if he isn't that driven that's not a character flaw but he probably doesn't love football.  But the results from it are predictable.  i have a real close friend who works in my profession, great person, but not driven.  They are talented but not good at what they do because their lack of drive.   They are just OK.  They could be special if they wanted to be special.  But that's not them.  

 

The thing about being a QB is you are an example for the rest of the team. 

 

As Scott Turner among others said the QB sets the example including via their work ethic. If they don't set the right example, they IMO aren't the right guy.  I've read multiple books about the Patriots and have the current one from Wickersham.  And part of the point in a bunch of them is Brady's drive was special.  Belichick didn't create Brady's drive.  Brady had that "it" factor from the jump.

 

 

 

 

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17 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

As Scott Turner among others said the QB sets the example including via their work ethic. If they don't set the right example, they IMO aren't the right guy.  I've read multiple books about the Patriots and have the current one from Wickersham.  And part of the point in a bunch of them is Brady's drive was special.  Belichick didn't create Brady's drive.  Brady had that "it" factor from the jump.

 

 

The thing about Brady is very little was handed to him.   He became the starter at Michigan as a junior and had a solid junior year season.  Not amazing but pretty good where he was viewed as one of the top 2 or 3 QB's in the Big 10 that season.   The next year Michigan tried to take away the starting position from him.  Drew Henson who was two years behind him was the star QB recruit.   A much better athlete and a much better arm than Brady he was very as a potential future number 1 overall pick and really good pro.  They viewed Brady as a good college QB who might make it for a few years as a back up NFL QB.   So after a solid junior year where Brady was the sole starter they went to a platoon system where Brady played the first quarter, Henson the second, and they went with the hot hand in the second half.  They did that for a few games until they Henson got them into some trouble and Brady had to bail them out at which point they went exclusively to Brady.   That said, NFL scouts, said Michigan's lack of respect for him hurt his draft stock.   His own team didn't see him as "the guy".  He was at Michigan for 5 years had two really good seasons and  his own school didn't see him as the guy.  His final game at Michigan he had an amazing game against Alabama.

 

Patriots take him the sixth round and performs well in camp.  He performs well in the preseason, maybe too well.  Belicheck wants to send him to the practice squad, but he performed well enough in the preseason that they were afraid another team would take him if they demoted him to the practice squad.  So they kept him...as the fourth qb--a  pretty rare thing.  Works his butt off, year 2 after a tough battle that he was not expected to win, he wins the backup job.  An upset, but still, Brady was a 24 year old back up QB in 2001.  Then Drew Bledsoe gets hurts.  Tom Brady takes over the team and they win the Super Bowl.  But your point stands---Brady was intrinsic motivated to be really good at his craft.  He didn't get the acclaim--he motivated himself.

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11 hours ago, philibusters said:

 

Patriots take him the sixth round and performs well in camp.  He performs well in the preseason, maybe too well.  Belicheck wants to send him to the practice squad, but he performed well enough in the preseason that they were afraid another team would take him if they demoted him to the practice squad.  So they kept him...as the fourth qb--a  pretty rare thing.  Works his butt off, year 2 after a tough battle that he was not expected to win, he wins the backup job.  An upset, but still, Brady was a 24 year old back up QB in 2001.  Then Drew Bledsoe gets hurts.  Tom Brady takes over the team and they win the Super Bowl.  But your point stands---Brady was intrinsic motivated to be really good at his craft.  He didn't get the acclaim--he motivated himself.

 

Yep. 

 

IMO you need:

 

A.  QB with talent

B. QB with drive

 

The organization helps bring out the best of said dude.  But an organziation can't change a player's talent and drive.    They either have it or they don't. 

 

Ryan Finley didn't fail becaue Cincy failed him whereas Cincy picked up their game to help Burrow and did right by him.  Burrow is special. Finley isn't. 

 

A great example of that is a story told by an Ohio State reporter in a podcast, I cited this story before.  That Ohio State reporter had access for a story to sit in on a QB meeting and they witnessed Burrow in that meeting actually making fun of Haskins for how little he knew the Ohio State playbook.  in other words, Haskins didn't study it that hard.  is it that much of a shocker that Burrow has excelled and Haskins didn't?

 

Some QBs just have that drive and some don't.  The organization that drafts the player can help bring the best out of them -- no doubt.  But IMO the #1 factor of a QB succeeding is the actual QB.  A dude like Peyton Manning is so talented and driven that he can't be denied.  We need to find people like that IMO.

 

Mac Jones was billed as that kind of dude.  Ditto Herbert.   We can't IMO blow off stories but they paint a pattern, positive or negative.  In the end these narratives tend to matter. 

 

https://thespun.com/nfl/report-adrian-peterson-criticized-dwayne-haskins-over-knowledge-of-redskins-playbook-after-vikings-game

According to a report from NFL Network’s Mike Garafolo, running back Adrian Peterson called out Haskins after the game. Peterson reportedly told Haskins to “learn these plays, everybody thinks that you don’t know them, you’re proving them right. It’s time to study the playbook.”

 

https://www.nbcsports.com/washington/football-team/taylor-heinicke-shares-hilarious-story-first-time-meeting-tom-brady

 

On Thursday, Heinicke shared an incredible story of the first time he met the greatest quarterback of all time, and what he attempted to do to make a great first impression on No. 12.

"The first day I was there, I said [to myself] 'I'm going to make a great impression. I'm going to be the first one in the building,'" Heinicke said.

As the quarterback walked into the Patriots' quarterbacks room between 5:15 and 5:30 a.m., Heinicke found Brady already deep in film study.

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/49ers/news/jim-mora-jr-explains-why-49ers-qb-josh-rosen-has-not-lived-up-to-expectations

 

MORA Jr.: "Josh has already had a reputation of being, um, a little bit different in terms of his personality. Josh is very very smart, and he lets you know he's very very smart. There are some coaches who don't necessarily take kindly to that. There are some players who don't necessarily take kindly to that. 

"The bottom line here is this: If Josh had come into a locker room and shown the type of dedication, humbleness, work ethic, team-first attitude and ability to fit in, there's a good chance he would have stuck at one of those places. But that has been hard for Josh to do.

 

 

 

 

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4 hours ago, kwitt said:

Serious question.  If you don't have a legit quarterback in today's NFL then you have nothing and NOTHING else matters.  History has shown time and time again that finding QBs in the draft is a crap shoot at best.   Would you take a QB with each of you first 2 or maybe even 3 picks?  


I would draft a quarterback in every draft until I found one worth a damn.

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5 hours ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

 

QB is paramount.  But that line of thinking is flawed.

 

Some QB's need more time and less asked of them to develop.  Look at Dak Prescott.  The team was good enough he didn't need to do much, and they could take things much slower with him.

 

A good team will make developing a QB easier.  There's less pressure on them.  Less heroics demanded of them.  They can focus on the basics.

 

Tom Brady's first few years were with a great defense and offensive line.  They brought in a HoF bellcow RB (Curtis Martin) to help make things easier for one of his earlier seasons too.

 

Russell Wilson definitely benefited from an elite defense keeping scores low so he didn't have to be in a shootout.  Just a few good drives early on.

 

Ben Roethlisberger's process was the same as Dak Prescott.  What he was asked of offensively in 2003 was super basic.  The team around him was good enough he could slowly develop.

 

If you could draft a QB and immediately know if you won the lottery, then sure, your method would be great.  But it takes the development aspect out of the equation.

The Bucs were stacked and were a 7 win team before getting a franchise QB. I think that line of thinking holds some weight. Also, using Dak Prescott as a rookie is a bad example. The guy had 29 total TDs and 4 ints as a rookie. He was pretty good right out of the gates, most of us just didn't want to believe that Dallas had hit gold that fast right after Romo and nitpicked him to death. 

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