2022 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[JSSkinz]

I guess its a year too early and I don't even know if he's good but I was watching a little of the Syracuse vs Wake game and the Syracuse QB rolled out and threw a ball on the run accurately 60 yds downfield.

 

Also ran for almost 200 yds, he's an interesting player.

[philibusters]

1 hour ago, JSSkinz said:

I guess its a year too early and I don't even know if he's good but I was watching a little of the Syracuse vs Wake game and the Syracuse QB rolled out and threw a ball on the run accurately 60 yds downfield.

 

Also ran for almost 200 yds, he's an interesting player.

 

Wasn't tracking the Syracuse QB.   A couple years ago (2015-2018) Syracuse had Eric Dungey who was a heck of a college QB.   Didn't make it in the NFL beyond practice squads, but was a dual threat playmaker at the college level.

[philibusters]

To me WFT looks like a 7-10 team.  That is not to say we could flip those numbers if the defense gets it act together (particularly the secondary).  So we may be looking at something like the 13th pick.  At 13 you may be able to get 

 

-the second or third qb

- the second or third corner

-the second or third Offensive Tackle

- the top interior lineman

- the second or third WR

- the top safety (though that is not going to happen this year with Kyle Hamilton like going in the top 5 or 6)

- the top TE

- the top non-edge LB

 

Obviously not all those guys will be available but may half of them will so we should be able to fill a need with say the 13th pick

[KDawg]

8 minutes ago, philibusters said:

To me WFT looks like a 7-10 team.  That is not to say we could flip those numbers if the defense gets it act together (particularly the secondary).  So we may be looking at something like the 13th pick.  At 13 you may be able to get 

 

-the second or third qb

- the second or third corner

-the second or third Offensive Tackle

- the top interior lineman

- the second or third WR

- the top safety (though that is not going to happen this year with Kyle Hamilton like going in the top 5 or 6)

- the top TE

- the top non-edge LB

 

Obviously not all those guys will be available but may half of them will so we should be able to fill a need with say the 13th pick

I think you’re overly optimistic on the record. 5-12/6-11 is much more likely but I’d say it’s very possible we win 4 games as well. 
 

Going to be a long season.

[philibusters]

18 minutes ago, KDawg said:

I think you’re overly optimistic on the record. 5-12/6-11 is much more likely but I’d say it’s very possible we win 4 games as well. 
 

Going to be a long season.

 

Well with say the 8th pick we will have even more options though I think this team has too much talent on defense not to put together a solid stretch.  But yeah we play like we did for the first five games for the last 12 games, 3-9 down the stretch would be realistic

Edited October 10, 2021 by philibusters

[philibusters]

How different are things if we finish 6-10 last year (just one less win) and have the 10th pick and can pick either Justin Fields or Mac Jones

[Going Commando]

On 10/10/2021 at 9:04 AM, philibusters said:

I think PFF is an okay indicator.  It certainly gives me a better feel for how guys played than the simple eye ball test.  That said, I thought they graded Tyler Linderbaum to high against Maryland.   A Maryland poster posted about 5 plays of Linderbaum getting beat (usually by Ami Finau) including one where he gets away with a hold.  Yet PFF gave Linderbaum a really good grade against Maryland by far the highest of the Iowa O-Linemen.

 

Don't know if the same is true of the Penn St game.

 

I don't think they do a great job grading run game performance.  They do it better for offense than defense, but it's hit or miss.  In general, I think they do a better job for offense than defense.  But the one thing they do help see past is Q rating bias.  They can be overhyped when they're promoting their material about players, but their hype is based on their grades.  And rarely do they grade a guy high that just isn't playing well.  If you see a guy with a really high grade from them who seems like a "false positive," it's almost always because of small sample size issues rather than they just flat out got him wrong.

[Skinsinparadise]

 

[philibusters]

It was just one game, but I thoought against Maryland Linderbaum lost too many reps to Ami Finau, the 6'2 320 pound Maryland NT, who will either a day 3 or undrafted free agent.  Here is four plays where Finau beats Linderbaum

 

 

Edited October 11, 2021 by philibusters

[Skinsinparadise]

Relevant to RB discussion, Barkley isn't unique.  You need 1A and 1B.  

 

 

 

[The Consigliere]

23 hours ago, KDawg said:

I think you’re overly optimistic on the record. 5-12/6-11 is much more likely but I’d say it’s very possible we win 4 games as well. 
 

Going to be a long season.

Exactly what I'm seeing. Unfortunately it's yet another year with a ton of horrific teams. 

 

Detroit

NYG

Philly

Chicago

Atlanta

Miami

NYJ

Houston

Jacksonville

and Indy. 

 

We could go 5-12 or 6-11 and still pick like 12th or 13th. It's also a terrible year for QB's. We had some good classes for a while, for their draft years (I acknowledge '18 looks much worse in retrospect), but man, that we didn't get any of the QB talent in '17 '18, '20 or '21 when we had no long term answers at the positions in season those years was flat out criminal. Hopefully we can get lucky like Dallas got with Dak. 

[philibusters]

5 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

Exactly what I'm seeing. Unfortunately it's yet another year with a ton of horrific teams. 

 

Detroit

NYG

Philly

Chicago

Atlanta

Miami

NYJ

Houston

Jacksonville

and Indy. 

 

We could go 5-12 or 6-11 and still pick like 12th or 13th. It's also a terrible year for QB's. We had some good classes for a while, for their draft years (I acknowledge '18 looks much worse in retrospect), but man, that we didn't get any of the QB talent in '17 '18, '20 or '21 when we had no long term answers at the positions in season those years was flat out criminal. Hopefully we can get lucky like Dallas got with Dak. 

 

I think people are overlooking how long the NFL season.  I think at some point:

 

1.  Rivera is going to play Collins less.

2.  The secondary will communicate better

3.  Jamin Davis will be decent

4.  Curtis Samuel and Logan Thomas will return giving our offense three playmakers.

 

I still think 7-10 is the most likely.  I understand why people are saying 5-12 because based on how we are playing that is a good guess, but I think we have  enough talent and Rivera is a good enough coach that we play better and get to 7 wins and get like the 14th pick.

[Skinsinparadise]

Lesson for me in the last draft.  The two dudes who were elusive as heck and YAC monsters who stood out on that front:  Rondale Moore and Kadrius Toney.  they both look really good thus far this season.  I haven't thought about yet who plays in that style in this coming draft.  But as for the short sample thus far, both players look like they are hard for NFL defenses to stop.

[philibusters]

If I could take any WR I would take Garrett Wiilson.  

[Going Commando]

2 hours ago, philibusters said:

If I could take any WR I would take Garrett Wiilson.  

I like him too, but I think I like Olave a little bit more because I think he's faster.  Both are first round worthy IMO, and would be enormous bargains in the second.

 

But after watching Drake London last weekend, I think he's the WR1.  He is practically a TE and he's just such an overwhelming physical mismatch that there won't be many NFL DBs that can guard him:

 

 

It's been a few draft classes since we've had a big ass WR like him be the WR1.  He looks like a future star.

He's got some Andre Johnson to him.

[Going Commando]

Watching more of London's cutups, he's got a problem with concentration drops.  I've counted five in just three games.  He makes ridiculously impressive circus catches through contact, but he lets too many easy ones fly through his hands.  Part of that is the absolutely insane amount of targets he sees, but it's the turd in the punchbowl with him as a prospect.  He draws a ton of penalties though, and he'll get even more calls in the NFL because of how college refs give up and let puny DBs drape all over dominant receivers.

[Skinsinparadise]

The roster according to PFF. Fuller's grade is oddly iinflated IMO but otherwise the rest doesn't seem out of whack to my eyes.

 

 

 

[philibusters]

The O-Line has been solid.   Deandre Carter and Ricky Seal Jones are both journeymen who have done the most with their reps.  Unfortunately the good (albeit minor) surprises have all been on offense.

[KDawg]

Actually, I think Fuller is better on the outside than he is in the slot for us. 

 

I think a corner has to be something we take a long, hard look at in this draft class.

 

Fuller, St Juste, Jackson and a rookie as the primary 4. Ideally a corner that has some versatility and can play in the slot or outside and is adequate in both zone and man. But what I prefer in a corner is a guy with a nose for the ball. A guy who may get beat (not badly, mind you, just beat) once in awhile but finds the ball and gets PBUs and big interceptions. Mistakes happen but aggressive and intelligent.

 

Haven't watched enough cut ups to identify who that fits yet.

 

On offense I think Carter may actually make Samuel expendable for us. I actually like our receivers quite a bit.

 

McLaurin, Carter, Milne, Brown, Humphries and McKissick are my favorite receivers. Brown is a rookie and will grow with opportunity. I know many are nervous about him but I think he's going to be solid.

 

We need a big time #2 guy. Mike Williams from the Chargers isn't due for a contract for another year I think, but he'd be such a big get. But I'm looking for a big bodied possession receiver who has a large catch radius, good speed (not great) and sticky hands. Something similar to a Pierre Garcon in that sense. Doesn't have to be Garcon, but I think he is a vastly underrated receiver in our pantheon.

 

Keep using Khaleke as a buffalo nickel. That's his spot and his niche and he's got a BRIGHT future.

 

Our biggest needs: Linebacker, free safety, and of course, quarterback. Find a running back to form a solid committee with Gibson. Find a corner and a #2 receiver and we're in REAL good shape. 

[Skinsinparadise]

9 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

Our biggest needs: Linebacker, free safety, and of course, quarterback. Find a running back to form a solid committee with Gibson. Find a corner and a #2 receiver and we're in REAL good shape. 

 

Yeah I am in the same place as for those spots.  I haven't studied the free safeties much but I am getting hopped up about it considering the breakdowns with the deep ball which was also sneaky bad last year but is a disaster this year.  I am assuming the first round pick will be dedicated to QB whether in the draft or veteran trade.  So guys like Hamilton are likely off the table.  But will see, who knows what they do but that's my initial gut. 

 

Does Daxton Hill fall to the 2nd?  Loved Moherig and he suprisingly dropped to the 2nd. 

 

 

 

Edited October 12, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[KDawg]

1 minute ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Yeah I am in the same place as for those spots.  I haven't studied the free safeties much but I am getting hopped up about it considering the breakdowns with the deep ball which was also sneaky bad last year but is a disaster this year.  I am assuming the first round pick will be dedicated to QB whether in the draft or veteran trade.  So guys like Hamilton are likely off the table.  But will see, who knows what they do but that's my initial gut. 

 

Does Daxton Hill fall to the 2nd?  Loved Moherig and he suprisingly dropped to the 2nd. 

 

 

 

 

I like Hill. Need to watch a lot more of him, though.

 

I look at Buffalo's D as they are in my backyard.

 

We have better defensive tackles, but theirs are solid. 

 

They have MUCH better LBs in Edmunds and Milano. It's not close. I think they have the best LB duo in the league. And I think their safety combo is the best in the league.

 

They don't have a great #2 corner, but they have a great #1. 

 

That's the blueprint. We can't replicate it because they have a lot of outstanding pieces. 

 

But a top 15 LB corps, top 10 safety unit would change our fortunes big time as we have a much better DL than Buffalo. 

[Skinsinparadise]

45 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

I like Hill. Need to watch a lot more of him, though.

 

 

I like what I've seen thus far from him.  Freak athlete.  5 star recruit.  Though I really got to watch more of everyone before I go hard sell.  Probably the guy I've paid the most attention to thus far is Matt Corral.  Maybe that's a good lucky portent for him.  At this same time last year, I delved the most probably into Mac Jones.  It's not that I loved Jones, I did like him though and thought he might end up in the range of whereever we picked so hence I paid attention.  Hecked if this season tanks maybe Corral stays within range of our pick. 

 

 

“He has a skillset of a corner with the ability to make plays as a safety, and the mindset of a safety,” Clinkscale said. “I’m really, really excited about all the plays he can make. His demeanor, his championship effort — he’s a very, very good football player. Very instinctual.”

 

 

Now, this isn’t the first time we have heard this from the coaches. Previous coordinator Don Brown used Hill in the occasional nickel package and flirted with the idea of playing him at corner in case of injury or depth issues. But he never pulled the trigger on it, opting to instead ride with the younger, inexperienced players at the position.

 

 

In 19 career games at Michigan, Hill has six starts at free safety and 82 tackles (three for a loss), two interceptions and nine pass deflections. He’s considered a high-level playmaker whose ceiling only rises.

 

 

“Every time you think you hit (a new level) with Dax — he finds another rung,” head coach Jim Harbaugh said this summer.

 

https://www.mlive.com/wolverines/2021/08/michigan-plans-to-play-daxton-hill-all-over-the-field.html

[Going Commando]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

The roster according to PFF. Fuller's grade is oddly iinflated IMO but otherwise the rest doesn't seem out of whack to my eyes.

 

Payne and Roullier are both way too low.  Payne has been our best player on D and Roullier has been our second best on offense since Scherff went down.  I think Heinicke's grade is too low too.  He's only had two bad games against three good ones.

[method man]

15 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

Payne and Roullier are both way too low.  Payne has been our best player on D and Roullier has been our second best on offense since Scherff went down.  I think Heinicke's grade is too low too.  He's only had two bad games against three good ones.

PFF has always graded Payne low for some reason

1 hour ago, KDawg said:

Actually, I think Fuller is better on the outside than he is in the slot for us. 

 

I think a corner has to be something we take a long, hard look at in this draft class.

 

Fuller, St Juste, Jackson and a rookie as the primary 4. Ideally a corner that has some versatility and can play in the slot or outside and is adequate in both zone and man. But what I prefer in a corner is a guy with a nose for the ball. A guy who may get beat (not badly, mind you, just beat) once in awhile but finds the ball and gets PBUs and big interceptions. Mistakes happen but aggressive and intelligent.

 

Haven't watched enough cut ups to identify who that fits yet.

 

On offense I think Carter may actually make Samuel expendable for us. I actually like our receivers quite a bit.

 

McLaurin, Carter, Milne, Brown, Humphries and McKissick are my favorite receivers. Brown is a rookie and will grow with opportunity. I know many are nervous about him but I think he's going to be solid.

 

We need a big time #2 guy. Mike Williams from the Chargers isn't due for a contract for another year I think, but he'd be such a big get. But I'm looking for a big bodied possession receiver who has a large catch radius, good speed (not great) and sticky hands. Something similar to a Pierre Garcon in that sense. Doesn't have to be Garcon, but I think he is a vastly underrated receiver in our pantheon.

 

Keep using Khaleke as a buffalo nickel. That's his spot and his niche and he's got a BRIGHT future.

 

Our biggest needs: Linebacker, free safety, and of course, quarterback. Find a running back to form a solid committee with Gibson. Find a corner and a #2 receiver and we're in REAL good shape. 

The answer, in my opinion, at corner is to let Fuller go in the offseason and find a man corner at slot and the #4 corner in FA/draft

 

Great slot corners don’t make Fuller type of money. Look at what Mike Hilton signed for as an example

 

I also agree with @Skinsinparadise that a true ILB is the biggest need and a stud FS is the second biggest

[philibusters]

I agree we are paying Fuller too much based on his production but I wouldn't let him go.  His salary will be 8 million next year (for a salary cap it of 11,125,000 as his signing counts as 3,125,000 per year).  If you cut him you have 6.25 million in dead cap (3,125,000 for two years).  If we use our first rounder on a corner and we want to get the rookie reps than it makes sense to cut Fuller, otherwise I think it doesn't make sense to cut him next year.