The Washington Nationals Thread: The Future is Near!

[StillUnknown]

16 minutes ago, skinsfan_1215 said:

If the market pushes Donaldson beyond the Nats comfort zone, I’d strongly consider having Kieboom at 3B as plan A. It’s risky given the uncertainty about his defense and how he will do at the plate over a full season, but there are about a half dozen FA 2B that will be far cheaper than Donaldson and don’t involve trading prospects. 

 

I know the team likes his mental makeup, but its almost unfair to start Kieboom at 3rd base. Reality is that his every move will be scrutinized even more because it will be compared to what we lost in Rendon. When he was in the team last year, you could see the mistakes weighing on him. I dont think its good way to set him up for long term success

Edited December 13, 2019 by StillUnknown

[TheGoodBits]

3 minutes ago, StillUnknown said:

 

I know the team likes his mental makeup, but its almost unfair to start Kieboom at 3rd base. Reality is that his every move will be scrutinized even more because it will be compared to what we lost in Rendon. When he was in the team last year, you could see the mistakes weighing on him. I dont think its good way to set him up for long term success

 

I agree. It's risky and I wouldn't love it, but if they miss on Donaldson that might be the least bad move. If they buried Kieboom in the order and signed a veteran backup infielder, maybe pressure would come off of him to an extent. Ben Zobrist apparently wants to play baseball. 2 year $16m for a 39 year old should get it done. You could potentially have that second year be a team option. Then invest the saved $ in the bullpen. 

 

Turner - SS

Eaton - RF
Soto - LF

Kendrick/Zimm - 1B

Zobrist- 2B

Robles- CF

Kieboom- 3B

Suzuki/Gomes- C

 

That's not a terrible lineup. You aren't replacing MVP-caliber offense by any means, but with our rotation and a revamped bullpen, that team should be able to win 90 games. 

 

 

 

[bearrock]

2 hours ago, Riggo#44 said:

 

But, again, Rendon's salary this year puts us at the CBT (if not over, I am not sure the exact amount) without any one else: not Zimmerman, not any bullpen help, not any more bench help, no trades at the deadline, none of the arbitration increases for players like Turner, and 10 empty spaces on the 40 man roster. You're not looking at "just going over the CBT for two years." You're approaching the 2nd tier of the CBT--where our picks are dropped 10 spots, we lose significant International signing bonus money, and are taxed something like 30%.

 

The estimated payroll factors in us keeping all the arbitration players.  For example if we had to make room, you could move Taylor, etc.  The number is fluid. 

 

Rizzo would obviously have a scenario for multiple contingencies.  If one of those contingencies included having Rendon on the payroll for 30 AAV, then I'm of the belief it's not the fear of moving into the second tier of CBT that would hamper the organization from offering 35 AAV.  That would only be true if there was a scenario where Lerners authorized a 15-20 mil over the CBT spending.  That has never been true and based on Mark Lerner's comments, it's hard to believe that was ever on the table.  If you believe that Rizzo's plan for Rendon resigning was 228 mil payroll, then we'll just have to disagree.  I don't think Rizzo was ever given the authority to go that deep into the CBT threshold based on ownership comments.  We'll see where the final payroll is, but I seriously doubt it's going to be over the CBT threshold.

[Bacon]

We're not going to send Kieboom into the season at 3B without a veteran contingency plan in place. That's not like us at all. We might not break the bank to do it, but somebody will be there to limit Kieboom's starts and it may be someone we don't expect. 

[TheGoodBits]

16 minutes ago, Bacon said:

We're not going to send Kieboom into the season at 3B without a veteran contingency plan in place. That's not like us at all. We might not break the bank to do it, but somebody will be there to limit Kieboom's starts and it may be someone we don't expect. 

Asdrubal Cabrera, perhaps... range is not good. Bat is fine. Bottom line is that our 3B defense is going to take a dive no matter who we pick up. Not a lot of guys play the hot corner like Rendon. 
 

edit- Zobrist also played 3rd before he got old. Could do worse as a stop-gap. 

Edited December 13, 2019 by skinsfan_1215

[Riggo#44]

 

Welp, he's going to the Braves.

[bearrock]

I have read that Donaldson prefers the Braves if all things were equal so if we want him, we probably have to tack on that 4th year.  Braves have more farm talent for a trade, so they may feel more comfortable missing out.  Rangers fans on the other hand will be lit, just in time for the new Stadium opening.

[Bacon]

I'd take Donaldson on a relatively short, front-loaded deal that limited long-term risk. I know front-loaded deals are uncommon because of inflation and luxury tax, but we all know his level of production could drop in the next couple years and it wouldn't hurt to have a stronger trade chip with Kieboom waiting in the wings.

 

Obviously he has a lot to contribute to the offense and solves a temporary problem. I just don't want us opening up new problems in the process like we would trading for Bryant. 

Edited December 13, 2019 by Bacon

[NoVaSkins21]

It's probably a dead issue, but they could've addressed the Rendon contract earlier and gotten a deal done, but low-balled him and waited until free agency when it was too late.  The deferral strategy only works for pitchers.  Position players don't like it and then take their talents elsewhere.   

[StillUnknown]

1 hour ago, SAli457180 said:

It's probably a dead issue, but they could've addressed the Rendon contract earlier and gotten a deal done, but low-balled him and waited until free agency when it was too late.  The deferral strategy only works for pitchers.  Position players don't like it and then take their talents elsewhere.   

 

deferrals are not a hitters/pitchers thing. its a strict case by case basis. Bobby Bonilla still eating off deferred payments.

[Riggo#44]

Donaldson is fine...just not for 4 years

 

[Commander -JB-]

Regardless of what happens at 3B all I know is that Robles will be at the top of the lineup next season.  Maybe leading off with Turner batting 3rd.  

[Riggo#44]

Officially sad to see him go.

 

[Commander -JB-]

I was thinking Jake Noll had a great spring training and he’s only 25.  Could roll with him at 3B.  Didn’t have room for him last season but why not give the young guy a shot??

 

[Riggo#44]

8 hours ago, -JB- said:

I was thinking Jake Noll had a great spring training and he’s only 25.  Could roll with him at 3B.  Didn’t have room for him last season but why not give the young guy a shot??

 

 

Jake "No Really I'm NOT Ryan Zimmerman!" Noll. Can he play 3rd? He always struck me as a AAAA 1st baseman 

[StillUnknown]

8 hours ago, -JB- said:

I was thinking Jake Noll had a great spring training and he’s only 25.  Could roll with him at 3B.  Didn’t have room for him last season but why not give the young guy a shot??

 

 

The great thing about Rizzo is that we know he will play the young kids when they are ready to contribute. If he's still in the minors at 25 in tbis organization, it says he's probably not an everyday mlb player.

[bearrock]

Interesting tidbit.  Since 2000, Red Sox never ranked top 5 in attendance (usually closer to 7-10.  Highest was one year at 6) and in fact their attendance was pretty middling before the WS win in 2004.  They get 70 mil per year in tv contract (after multiple WS since 2004), Nats were awarded 59 mil in the arbitration.  Boston and DC market is similar in size.  

[Commander -JB-]

1 hour ago, StillUnknown said:

 

The great thing about Rizzo is that we know he will play the young kids when they are ready to contribute. If he's still in the minors at 25 in tbis organization, it says he's probably not an everyday mlb player.

Some guys are late bloomers.  He had a tremendous spring but was never going to get significant time at the major league pec last season?  Michael A Taylor spent a significant amount of time in AAA last season and he’s a few years older than Noll.  I’m sure Taylor could start somewhere.  

11 minutes ago, bearrock said:

Interesting tidbit.  Since 2000, Red Sox never ranked top 5 in attendance (usually closer to 7-10.  Highest was one year at 6) and in fact their attendance was pretty middling before the WS win in 2004.  They get 70 mil per year in tv contract (after multiple WS since 2004), Nats were awarded 59 mil in the arbitration.  Boston and DC market is similar in size.  

They averaged over 8k more fans per game in 2019.  

[Riggo#44]

Guys, we need to stop celebrating. Winning the division is the real goal.

 

[Commander -JB-]

May I be so bold as to say “Dude, that’s a chick” LOL

[bearrock]

25 minutes ago, -JB- said:

They averaged over 8k more fans per game in 2019.  

 

They were coming off a WS and DC attendance dipped (probably due to the bad start and Harper leaving).  Usually the gap is about half that (and that's with Boston having multiple WS in the last decade vs DC without a ring till this year).

 

Pre 2004 attendance for Boston is pretty much in line with Harper years of DC, back in an era when baseball itself was a bigger sports than it is now.

 

With the Skins being in the dumpsters, a market the size of DC definitely has the potential to be one of the big baseball markets in MLB.  Not LA or NY, but right below that.  Comparable towns like Boston proved that over the long haul and Houston proved it after their recent WS run.

[TradeTheBeal!]

“Braves, Falcons and Huskers”

 

Poor Mindy.

[Riggo#44]

 

[Commander -JB-]

1 hour ago, bearrock said:

 

They were coming off a WS and DC attendance dipped (probably due to the bad start and Harper leaving).  Usually the gap is about half that (and that's with Boston having multiple WS in the last decade vs DC without a ring till this year).

 

Pre 2004 attendance for Boston is pretty much in line with Harper years of DC, back in an era when baseball itself was a bigger sports than it is now.

 

With the Skins being in the dumpsters, a market the size of DC definitely has the potential to be one of the big baseball markets in MLB.  Not LA or NY, but right below that.  Comparable towns like Boston proved that over the long haul and Houston proved it after their recent WS run.

Fenway capacity is like 37,000 so they fill the stadium every year all season.  As you can see with the Nats plenty of empty seats all season.  Not even comparable.  Red Sox have been a Boston staple for so many years.  The Nats just showed up in 2005.  Come on, man.  Not comparable.  Especially merchandising etc.

[bearrock]

Just now, -JB- said:

Fenway capacity is like 37,000 so they fill the stadium every year all season.  As you can see with the Nats plenty of empty seats all season.  Not even comparable.  Red Sox have been a Boston staple for so many years.  The Nats just showed up in 2005.  Come on, man.  Not comparable.  Especially merchandising etc.

 

Leading up to 2004, they did not fill the stadium. In the 7 years before the WS title, they topped 33K once, 32K twice and averaged 30,994 during those years.

 

In the 7 years before the WS win this year, Nats topped 30K in all years but one and averaged 31,321.  That's without the benefit of being one of the most historic franchise in MLB with an entrenched fanbase in the city.  Also in an era when baseball is no longer the top sports in US.  You don't think Nats will start selling out on a regular basis if they win 4 rings 14 years?  Especially when they don't have to compete with the Pats, Bruins, and Celtics, who all won championships in that same window?

 

Merchandising money outside of those sold at the team store (which should correlate with attendance) is split evenly by the teams.  It doesn't matter if everyone on the planet all buy Redsox gear.  If they buy outside of the team store at Fenway, Nats get a same slice of the pie.