nonniey Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Interesting results out of Florida. Earlier today and over the past few days Republican pundits were spinning that this election would not be a good indicator of what would happen in November. The Democrats were predicting that the race would be a good indicator. The writers on both sides expected a democratic victory. And of course it had to happen - the Republican won. Tomorrow's analysis ought to be a hoot (From both sides). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wrong Direction Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Losers will minimize the "implications." Many winners will make it out to be a huge indicator. Reality says much can change by November, but this isn't a good Democrat environment. They won't win the house, and many D senators rode Obama's coat tails in 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kilmer17 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Surprising result. Sink was up 7-10 in almost every poll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheGoodBits Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Surprising result. Sink was up 7-10 in almost every poll Sounds like a turnout issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larry Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Sounds like a turnout issue. Voter suppression! Gerrymandering! Citizens United! Diebold! (Just thought I'd get those out there.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheGoodBits Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Voter suppression! Gerrymandering! Citizens United! Diebold! (Just thought I'd get those out there.) Haha. Let's go with gerrymandering. Poll results were skewed, obviously because voters don't know what district they're in anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan T. Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 I think the bellwether in Florida might be in Brevard County, where there's an Elvis impersonator named Jack Smink running for Brevard County Council. I was in Cocoa for Nats spring training and caught Smink fever.I hope he wins: Get on the Smink bandwagon now:http://www.thinksmink.org/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wrong Direction Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Stu Rothenberg isn't exactly a pundit. Here's an article he wrote in January. http://www3.blogs.rollcall.com/rothenblog/the-race-democrats-cant-afford-to-lose/ The Race Democrats Can’t Afford to Lose A loss in the competitive March 11 contest would almost certainly be regarded by dispassionate observers as a sign that President Barack Obama could constitute an albatross around the neck of his party’s nominees in November. ... Fundamentally, the district, left vacant by the death of longtime Republican Rep. C.W. Bill Young, looks competitive but has a slight Democratic tinge. ... Given all of the advantages that Sink has — the district, her experience and proven electoral success, her money in the bank and her united party — and the problems the GOP nominee will face, shouldn’t the likely Democratic nominee be a clear favorite to win the special election, getting her party one seat closer to the majority in November? The answer is “yes,” and if this seat had become open in 2006 or 2007, there is little doubt that Democrats would have been solid favorites to win. But the president’s weak poll numbers nationally and the problems associated with the launch of the health care law could undermine Sink’s obvious advantages, particularly in this Central Florida district, where 22 percent of residents are 65 or older. (Republican strategists believe that voters 65 and older could constitute close to 30 percent of the special-election electorate.) ... Still, all things being equal, Sink has enough advantages to produce a narrow but clear victory. So, while a victory would constitute a takeover and give her party’s talking heads an opportunity to demonize the Republicans in Congress once again, it would not be surprising. On the other hand, since most nonpartisan handicappers and analysts have for years expected this seat to go Democratic when it became open, a Republican victory in March would likely say something about the national political environment and the inclination of district voters to send a message of dissatisfaction about the president. And that possibility should worry the White House. The National Republican Congressional Committee would love to keep this Florida seat in the special election. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee cannot afford to lose it. Those are two very different perspectives that reflect the relative importance of this election to the two parties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Evil Genius Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Personally, I'm always stunned when a District that has been represented by a Republican since 1983 voted for another Republican. Heck, only once since 2002 has the difference in vote between the winning R and the losing D in that District been less than 9.5%. Granted, I don't know the nuances of the candidates - but if the District votes like a Republican (for 30+ years), I suspect it's not out of the realm to expect the R who is running to win (despite pre-polling), right? Although, to be fair, maybe the expectations were different because of the redistricting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Evil Genius Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Looking at the demographics of the District, I'm not suprised it went GOP. 87+% white. 22%+ over 65. Percentages well above the Florida (and US) average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wrong Direction Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Personally, I'm always stunned when a District that has been represented by a Republican since 1983 voted for another Republican. Heck, only once since 2002 has the difference in vote between the winning R and the losing D in that District been less than 9.5%. Granted, I don't know the nuances of the candidates - but if the District votes like a Republican (for 30+ years), I suspect it's not out of the realm to expect the R who is running to win (despite pre-polling), right? Although, to be fair, maybe the expectations were different because of the redistricting? The article I linked to explains this pretty well. In a nutshell, Obama won there twice, the popular R is gone, the replacement R is a recently divorced lobbyist who's now dating a woman 14 years his junior, the D candidate was considered a great candidate with excellent financing and unified national party support, the R candidate had about 10% of the money as the D candidate, the D candidate won that district when she ran for governor. I think the one mistake the D candidate made was when she said we need illegal immigrants to be our janitors. In the end, just like every election, the loser didn't get the turnout they needed. The reasons are likely the electorate differences between a special election and a regularly scheduled election, with a little bit of ObamaCare sprinkled in. I'm not sure there's too much to take away, but the D's wanted this one bad, and didn't get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Evil Genius Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 That makes sense WD. Although I am always at a loss at trying to figure out the goings on in Florida elections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kilmer17 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 The real issue that swung this race at the end was not Obamacare in general, it was the Obamacare cuts to Medicare Advantage. That doesnt play well in areas like Pinellas county. Sink should have run away with this. A popular centrist Dem, who almost won the Governors race and beat Rick Scott in this county 154k- 137k. Against a former lobbyist divorcee who campaigned with his MUCH younger girlfriend. Sink out raised and out spent him. He couldnt even get the former Congressmans family to give him complete support (some supported other GOPers in the primary). He was and is a terrible candidate who ran an aweful campaign. But still won. If you had asked me over the weekend, Id have guessed Sink would win by 5-7 points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Evil Genius Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Is this proof that in some areas you can run almost anyone out there with a certain designation in front of their name (be it R or D) and they will almost always win at the local level? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mad Mike Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 The tea party is huge down here. I feel like I am surrounded by morons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan T. Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Jack Smink is running unaffiliated to any party. TCB independently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wrong Direction Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 The real issue that swung this race at the end was not Obamacare in general, it was the Obamacare cuts to Medicare Advantage. That doesnt play well in areas like Pinellas county. It's worth noting that many of the ACA cuts to traditional Medicare go into place in 15 and 16. I suspect politicians everywhere are running against those cuts, but it's unclear how they can be avoided at this point unless the R's win the Senate. In that case, I can't see the D's stopping a bill that "saves" traditional Medicare, and I also can't see the R's coming up with a "pay-for" for that bill. This could be an interesting dynamic in 16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
88Comrade2000 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Honestly, these midterms don't mean much when there will still be divided government. All it means that Republicans will have full control and Obama will be whipping out his veto pen. I fully expect impeachment hearings in January; should Republicans get full control of congress as expected. All the GOP is going to do is position themselves to try win everything in 2016. Of course, the GOP will be the ones with the most Senate Seats to defend then. They will also have to explain their right wing shenanigans to a PRESIDENTIAL electorate in 2016. The story of 2014 will not be that the Republicans take the Senate; that is expected. The story will be if the Republicans fall short of that goal. Actually, for the Dems; losing the Senate this year might not be a bad thing for the long term. Yes, it definitely mean the end of the OBama presidency- he'll just be veteoing his last 2 years. Even more gridlock. I fully expect a rightward tilt that will repeal those 2016 voters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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