HTTR24-7: Roster Review: Redskins Running Backs

[Lavarleap56]

are you saying the production Morris got this year is the same "quality" as our backs got in 2011? I don't think so. RGIII and even Cousins works so well with Morris. Both of these QBs are on the same "page" as him. that is a huge plus beyond how many yards each got.

I am not saying spend the house on him, but at least pay him as a number one pick.

Yards are yards bro, doesn't matter if they a pretty or dirty, the result is the same. Alfred is more talented then the backs of 2011 so don't think i'm trying to discredit him. Think you are making way to much of " RG and Cousins being on the same page as morris".. Most QB's can hand off and pitch to any back.

Pay him as a number 1 pick? What?..

---------- Post added January-18th-2013 at 04:00 PM ----------

you guys don't realize one thing. Yes Mike S has been using most of his backs as "chips" and he probably feels like anyone can rush for 1000 yards in his offense but when he finds a back like Morris, durable, perfect for his offense I am not so sure he will use him as a "chip"

Clinton Portis was a perfect fit for a Mike Shanahan offense, better than TD and Alf. I think people forget how special the Portis/Shanahan combination was in Denver. CP was a complete back you could use on all three downs running or receiving out of the backfield. Alf is a hell of a runner but his game is limited as a receiver out of the backfield, not a huge knock but one that limits "value".

Just for kicks:

CP under Mike : 563 carries, 3,099 yards =, 5.5 YPC, 29 Tds, 71 receptions, 678 yards 9.5 average, 2 Tds ( In a traditional offense)

Portis wanted a new deal and Shanny thought he deserved the money but still traded him because he didn't want to pay top dollar to a RB.

Alf is good but vs Cleveland he found yards a lot harder to come by than in the zone read.

Case and point Terrell Davis. he rode him to two SBs.

TD had 4 good years then fell off the cliff.. Can't move a RB that isn't healthy.

---------- Post added January-18th-2013 at 04:01 PM ----------

you guys don't realize one thing. Yes Mike S has been using most of his backs as "chips" and he probably feels like anyone can rush for 1000 yards in his offense but when he finds a back like Morris, durable, perfect for his offense I am not so sure he will use him as a "chip"

Clinton Portis was a perfect fit for a Mike Shanahan offense, better than TD and Alf. I think people forget how special the Portis/Shanahan combination was in Denver. CP was a complete back you could use on all three downs running or receiving out of the backfield. Alf is a hell of a runner but his game is limited as a receiver out of the backfield, not a huge knock but one that limits "value".

Just for kicks:

CP under Mike : 563 carries, 3,099 yards =, 5.5 YPC, 29 Tds, 71 receptions, 678 yards 9.5 average, 2 Tds ( In a traditional offense)

Portis wanted a new deal and Shanny thought he deserved the money but still traded him because he didn't want to pay top dollar to a RB.

Alf is good but vs Cleveland he found yards a lot harder to come by than in the zone read.

Case and point Terrell Davis. he rode him to two SBs.

TD had 4 good years then fell off the cliff.. Can't move a RB that isn't healthy.

[rk3025]

We have contracts for next year on Helu for $672,000, Royster $555,000 and Morris for $509,000 plus Davis, K Williams and Hightower waiting in the wings for a chance. These were contracts according to draft rounds and Morris will get paid after contract is over by us or another team if not traded for draft need or pick that we gave for RG3.

[Rypien1191]

Disagree with " The most stupid thing you can do" ....

Running Back is a spot you don't want to invest too much money into. The league has a few outliers but you can get the same production out of a rookie that you can out of a vet. No reason to pay a lot of money to a RB when it is not necessary.

Shanahan feels his system creates these backs to a extent..

2011- Redskins Running backs- 1,489 yards

2012 Alfred Morris 1,613 yards

How much money do you want to commit for a difference of 124 yards..

I love Alfred but Mike's history is what it is... Running Backs are poker chips to him.

True but at the same time, Alf doesn't seem like the kind of guy who is gonna go bolting out the door looking for a max deal as soon as his 4 years are up. As of now he loves the team, the city, his teammates...If him and RG3 are still healthy and successful, I could see him staying and us paying him a modest deal. I love CP but lets be honest their personalities aren't the same.

True that apart from the elite guys like AP, backs are pretty close to each other in talent but you also don't want to let a guy like Alf who is so humble and runs so hard and works so hard out the door...

[TheGreek1973]

hey Lavarleap56....See Alcoholic Zebra's post above your reply to me. It explains very well what I ment by "quality" production. Yards are not just yards dude, especially average per carry. Morris was putting the offense in 2nd and 4 or 2nd and 3 time after time. That is HUGE.

having said this yea if someone gives us a 2nd round pick and a top 5 CB I would make that trade with Morris.

[mojo]

True but at the same time, Alf doesn't seem like the kind of guy who is gonna go bolting out the door looking for a max deal as soon as his 4 years are up. As of now he loves the team, the city, his teammates...If him and RG3 are still healthy and successful, I could see him staying and us paying him a modest deal. I love CP but lets be honest their personalities aren't the same.

True that apart from the elite guys like AP, backs are pretty close to each other in talent but you also don't want to let a guy like Alf who is so humble and runs so hard and works so hard out the door...

I think the next offseason will determine the Skins future with Morris, IF he has another monster year.

1) We hold steady on his contract and he holds out (perfectly acceptable in my opinion, he would be financially raped by the team if we held to a 6th rd rookie deal)

2) We renegotiate a new deal

3) We trade him

I agree with Lavaleap. The days of sinking a ton of money into a running back are gone. I'd prefer to get some picks and continue with younger RB's

[Botched]

If Morris has another 1600 yard, 10+ TD season, we can and should trade him for a 1st round pick. There are plenty of sucker teams out there who still use 1st round picks for running backs.

[Lavarleap56]

It's really not just 124 yards. That's a gross simplification.

The difference is that 2011 had 350 RB carries. 2012 had 335 for Morris. Morris averaged 4.82 yards per carry. 2011 backs averaged 4.25 yards per carry.

According to Football Outsiders:

Alfred Morris had a success rate of 52%, which is 7th in the league. Roy Helu had a success rate of 47%, which was 24th. Evan Royster/Tim Hightower didn't have enough runs to qualify for this stat.

In 2011 our Adjusted Line Yards was 4.21. The running back yards for that was 4.19.

In 2012 our Adjusted Line Yards was 4.25. Our running back yards for that was 4.72.

In terms of average yards gained between 5-10 yards past the LoS, were we 5th in the league this season compared to 15th last season. Alfred Morris isn't a burner, but we were still 13th in average yards for runs that went 10 or more. In 2011 we were 25th in that category.

We were 3rd in the league with the lowest % of our runs being stuffed this season. In 2011, we were 19th in the league.

Alfred Morris improved as the season went on. We can't say that his ability to make the right reads, press the hole, and cut back didn't also improve. He got more comfortable in this scheme and with this line. We can't make long term estimates about Morris based off of one season. He's got a 4 year contract, we don't have to rush to make decisions on how long he'll be here. Alfred Morris's running style is one that does not rely on speed, acceleration, and elite athleticism. Morris makes the right cuts, at the right time by setting up blockers or pressing the hole. That trait is a bit more prone to longevity than say speedsters.

If Morris improves some more, he could deserve a few year extension. If Morris shows again that he's very durable and doesn't get injuries, that's valuable. He could deserve an extension. Thankfully, this whole topic is moot for another season, since right now we only have 1 year to go off of. But I don't think we can just write him off as another guy that would fade. He has less mileage at age 25 than other RB's do.

1. I never said anything about a extension... I said in 4 years he won't be the RB based on Shannys history,

2. I'm familiar with all the advanced metrics from various different sites and think some have merit and some do not. The difference is pretty marginal between 2011-2012. FO doesn't have a accurate formula to judge the back vs the front he's facing, and that is needed in this discussion IMO.

Morris did have the benefit of running against one less defender for a good majority of his carries. Defenses also could not really key in on him with Robert at QB vs Grossman.. A lot of different variables.

3. Longevity- It doesn't matter if he is a speed or power guy. I'm aware of Alfred's skill set but he takes a pounding with his running style. The amount of tackles he breaks and players he carries on his back add up over time.Marion Barber is a good example, every time he ran people questioned how long he could hold up being as physical as he was. Every tackle on a player adds up over time...

You have to look at RB's like new cars... Soon as they get of the lot the miles add up and the value depreciates a little bit.

I think Morris is one hell of a RB BUT I also believe it is imperative to stay young at the position rather than a trend..

---------- Post added January-18th-2013 at 06:25 PM ----------

True but at the same time, Alf doesn't seem like the kind of guy who is gonna go bolting out the door looking for a max deal as soon as his 4 years are up.

I didn't say he was but in 4 years he will be 28.. That is not the age you want to try to get a new 4-5 year deal at.

As of now he loves the team, the city, his teammates...If him and RG3 are still healthy and successful, I could see him staying and us paying him a modest deal. I love CP but lets be honest their personalities aren't the same.

Shanny didn't trade CP because of a personality issue.. Shanny has said he felt CP was worth the money he wanted and he couldn't/wouldn't pay him that, so he gave him the opportunity to get it somewhere else. Alf is a first class guy BUT nobody plays for free and Agents are agents for a reason, don't assume Alf will just play for whatever.

[Rypien1191]

I agree we won't sink much money into Alf or any RB, I just hope he stays and we can make it work for whatever. I love how he runs and I love rooting for the guy.

And we definitely need another RB, especially with Helu a ?

[Warhead36]

Morris is a lot more than just a system back. Certainly the system helps but I saw him consistently hit holes hard, break tackles, and he has more than enough speed to get away when he gets a big hole. He's a hell of a back and would be a 1200+ yard guy on any team.

We need a speed guy for 3rd downs. A Darren Sproles or Jaquiz Rodgers type. That would put our O over the top because everything else is set(assuming Davis returns healthy).

[Lavarleap56]

Mike Shanahan's history with rookie Running Backs in case you forgot...

1995- T.Davis - 1,117 yards 4.7 average Drafted- 6th round

1999-O.Gary - 12 games 1,159 yards 4.2 average Drafted- 4th round

2000- M.Anderson - 1,487 yards 5.0 average - Drafted- 6th round

2002- C.Portis - 1,508 yards 5.5 average - Drafted - 2nd round

2005- T.Bell - 921 yards 5.3 average -Drafted - 2nd round

2011- R.Helu - 641 yards 4.2 average- Drafted - 4th round

2011- E.Royster- 328 yards 5.9 - Drafted - 6th round

2012- A.Morris - 1,614 yards 4.8 average - Drafted 6th round

---------- Post added January-18th-2013 at 06:43 PM ----------

Morris is a lot more than just a system back. Certainly the system helps but I saw him consistently hit holes hard, break tackles, and he has more than enough speed to get away when he gets a big hole. He's a hell of a back and would be a 1200+ yard guy on any team.

We need a speed guy for 3rd downs. A Darren Sproles or Jaquiz Rodgers type. That would put our O over the top because everything else is set(assuming Davis returns healthy).

I never said he was a system back...

[DCsportsfan53]

Shanny didn't trade CP because of a personality issue.. Shanny has said he felt CP was worth the money he wanted and he couldn't/wouldn't pay him that, so he gave him the opportunity to get it somewhere else. Alf is a first class guy BUT nobody plays for free and Agents are agents for a reason, don't assume Alf will just play for whatever.

While I love Alfred and thought the extra he brings to the running back position had a lot to do with our success this year I tend to agree that he won't be the RB here in 4 years, for various reasons. The pounding a RB takes for one, the lack of value in paying a RB for another and Shanny's history make it all not so likely. The one part I'll quibble with you on is saying Shanny didn't trade CP because of a personality issue. From the whispers we've heard, even dating back to when the trade happened and later somewhat verified by his performance here (and even Shanny's comments when he got here) it was always assumed that a large part of the reason CP didn't stay in Denver was his practice habits and how hard he didn't work during the offseason and during the week. Yeah, the fact that he wanted blockbuster type money was certainly a factor but I've always felt and it's always been hinted that Shanny would've been willing to pay him a good chunk of money if not for the fact that he believed CP would wear down and/or lose effectiveness quicker than most due to his work and extracurricular habits, not to mention the bad example set by someone paid that much who didn't necessarily carry his load in practice.

[Est.1974]

A dynamic 3rd down back is a definate need. I can see one being drafted in the mid-late rounds for sure.

For as good as Alfred is he won't see a second contract from the Redskins..

Good luck selling that to Mike Shanahan. He trades backs all the time, he even sent Clinton Portis packing and he was averaging 5.5 a carry and tearing up the NFL.

Running Back is not a position Mike Shanahan invests big money into.

Earlier in the season I would have agreed with this, but not now.

For me Morris appears to be a class above most guys in the NFL. Top class RB, top class guy, top class pro....and i think their his no way in hell he will change however much success he has.

If the production continues in years 2 & 3, I think he will get looked after here at the Redskins....

And Shanahan did once make Terrell Davis the highest paid running back in the NFL so he has invested big there before. He maybe got bitten a little with that, given how the career of Davis tailed off, however I can now see a scenario where Morris gets fair reward here as a Redskin.

[gortiz]

I hope he is but I have a hard time seeing it right now.

Why Leap? I mean, I kow the obvious reasons - not being able to stay on the field I'm sure is #1, Royster berign able to stay healthy, etc.

What's #2 and #3?

---------- Post added January-18th-2013 at 02:46 PM ----------

If Morris has another 1600 yard, 10+ TD season, we can and should trade him for a 1st round pick. There are plenty of sucker teams out there who still use 1st round picks for running backs.

wait ... if your 6th round RB has probably the second best start begin a career in NFL history ... which 1,600+ yards and 10+ TD's the first two years would be after Dickerson, you still think we trade him?

Jesus ... this is a tough crowd.

[Lavarleap56]

While I love Alfred and thought the extra he brings to the running back position had a lot to do with our success this year I tend to agree that he won't be the RB here in 4 years, for various reasons. The pounding a RB takes for one, the lack of value in paying a RB for another and Shanny's history make it all not so likely. The one part I'll quibble with you on is saying Shanny didn't trade CP because of a personality issue. From the whispers we've heard, even dating back to when the trade happened and later somewhat verified by his performance here (and even Shanny's comments when he got here) it was always assumed that a large part of the reason CP didn't stay in Denver was his practice habits and how hard he didn't work during the offseason and during the week. Yeah, the fact that he wanted blockbuster type money was certainly a factor but I've always felt and it's always been hinted that Shanny would've been willing to pay him a good chunk of money if not for the fact that he believed CP would wear down and/or lose effectiveness quicker than most due to his work and extracurricular habits, not to mention the bad example set by someone paid that much who didn't necessarily carry his load in practice.

Possible but I know Clinton and heard it differently. Think Shanahan has made some public comments about it in the past as well. Shanny made comments aimed at CPs conditioning/practice habits when he took over in 2010, think he was referencing the years under Zorn.

[Botched]

wait ... if your 6th round RB has probably the second best start begin a career in NFL history ... which 1,600+ yards and 10+ TD's the first two years would be after Dickerson, you still think we trade him?

Jesus ... this is a tough crowd.

I'd trade him in a heartbeat. People dramatically overrate the importance, and therefore value, of running backs.

[Leonard Washington]

I'd trade him in a heartbeat. People dramatically overrate the importance, and therefore value, of running backs.

I would agree with you if we had 1600 backs for the last 3 years.

[darrelgreenie]

I'd trade him in a heartbeat. People dramatically overrate the importance, and therefore value, of running backs.

I think the importance and value of a good running back remains high league wide. I think its only perception that leads media/fans to believe a good running back/running game are overrated. I would still trade Morris because Mike Shanahan runs a scheme that has proven the ability to identify and develop mid-late round runners and produce a good running game.

[skinny21]

I think the importance and value of a good running back remains high league wide. I think its only perception that leads media/fans to believe a good running back/running game are overrated. I would still trade Morris because Mike Shanahan runs a scheme that has proven the ability to identify and develop mid-late round runners and produce a good running game.

I agree with the points about Shanahan and runningbacks, my only hesitation is that a thousand yard back is far different than a 1600 yard back. But that could be explained away by a superior run-blocking o-line (maybe?), having Robert back there (big difference), the 'Skins not throwing as much (and so running more - not sure about that one) and not having a back to take the burden off Morris.

[maskedsuperstar]

I like Theo Riddick as well for that 3rd down role and alot of our zone read stuff from the full backfield but I think I'd like Dennard Robinson in that role a bit more than Riddick. I'd say they would both be available 4th round on (though tbh i would not pick a player for that role eariler than the 6th round). Anyway I just think Dennard is a bit faster and a more explosive athlete than Riddick and in that backfield role he could be a nightmare (like I said I would be happy with either as long as it is in the 6th round).

Like Theo Riddick myself

[Laxpunk2006]

While I hope Morris can be a career Redskin and stay productive I don't have an issue with anything LL is saying. It all seems logical based on not only Mike Shanahan's history but the league's trend in staying young with RB's.

For those of you saying that if Morris has another top notch year he should be getting paid, that isn't even possible. The new CBA requires players to finish their first 3 seasons before renegotiating.

The rookie pay makeover did not stop there. All drafted players must now sign four-year contracts, eliminating the entire category of the fourth-year restricted free agent. Further, there are no renegotiations of rookie contracts until after a player's third year, removing any holdout possibilities for a high-performing young player before his fourth year. The new rookie pay system is written as though the owners were given a blank slate to achieve what they wanted.

As far as the poster who said Shanahan wouldn't trade a healthy AP. Why not? Clinton Portis' first two seasons were on par with anything Peterson has done throughout his career, he didn't have any previous injuries, he was younger, and he was a better receiver out of the backfield.

As far as TD being proof that Shanahan makes exceptions: How did that work out for Shanahan? His last contract renegotiation was 2008 after his 2000 yard season. He was rewarded with 1194 yards over the next 3 seasons in 16 starts. The league as a whole has shifted towards RB's as wear items like tires.

I think its possible Morris sticks around long term but it isn't a given. It's very possible a RB hungry team throws top dollar at him and we choose to stay young at the position. Just because he's a modest guy doesn't mean he isn't going to secure his family's future when he has the chance to.

[redskindan07]

I'd love if somehow RB Zac Stacy would be available in the mid/later rounds of the draft

[Laxpunk2006]

Why Leap? I mean, I kow the obvious reasons - not being able to stay on the field I'm sure is #1, Royster berign able to stay healthy, etc.

What's #2 and #3?

---------- Post added January-18th-2013 at 02:46 PM ----------

wait ... if your 6th round RB has probably the second best start begin a career in NFL history ... which 1,600+ yards and 10+ TD's the first two years would be after Dickerson, you still think we trade him?

Jesus ... this is a tough crowd.

Clinton's first two seasons were 1500+, 5.5 a carry and 15 TD's. I'd say that's a better start than 1600/10.

[Corcaigh]

Davis got a pay raise in Denver.

[TSO]

Well, logical or illogical, good move or bad move, if we were to trade Morris it'd be hard as a Skins fan to see him go. Probably the hardest player on the roster to see go in my opinion. He's easily my favorite player on the roster right now right next to Fletcher, to be honest. As much as I enjoy Robert, this guy's humility as well as where he was drafted is just refreshing and makes it too easy to root for him.

[freetimmysmith]

....Probably the hardest player on the roster to see go in my opinion. He's easily my favorite player on the roster right now right next to Fletcher, to be honest. As much as I enjoy Robert, this guy's humility as well as where he was drafted is just refreshing and makes it too easy to root for him.

Couldn't agree more. Fans that think he will be easy to replace should spend some time watching film. He isn't a dime a dozen RB.