RGIII. Peyton Manning's rookie year. And what we can all learn and take from the comparison.

[COWBOY-KILLA-]

I couldn't believe the game day thread vs. the bears. I totally agree that it will take some tIme and everyone should be patient. I do however think that coach has purposefully kept him bottled up, as evidenced by his lack of opportunity/passing attempts. This year is gonna be pure excitement!

[TSO]

Very interesting, GHH, thanks for the work you put into this and I hope it has the intended affect. I do have a couple of thoughts...

1) I seriously believe RG3 is going to have an excellent rookie campaign because of the offense he's in as well as his athleticism. Peyton simply did not have the same talent athletically coming out of college, nor was he in an offense in which guys, young or old, can excel in easily and quickly, especially when they have decent mobility (Elway, Young, Cutler and Plummer).

2) I look at RG3 and all I see is Aaron Rodgers (but faster, of course). Where do the similarities end? Height and Weight? Virtually the same. Incredibly quick release? Check. Rocket arm? Check. Excellent touch? Check. Accuracy? Check. Mobility to make plays with feet? Check. Questionable Oline? Check.

In fact, I think his rookie campaign is going to be a lot more like Rodgers' first year as a starter than Manning's rookie year. Everyone forgets that Aaron Rodgers wasn't always Aaron Rodgers. His first two years as a starter proved he was a great QB, but it wasn't like he was putting up the numbers he did last season. He was running for his life a whole lot behind a below-average Oline and made a LOT of plays on the run, both throwing and using his legs. He held the ball long because he wanted to make every play as well and took a ton of sacks.

Let's take a look at Rodgers' first two years starting (the first of which wasn't his rookie year for those who don't remember):

2008 Passing Stats

GP CMP ATT CMP% YDS AVG TD LNG INT FUM

16 341 536 63.6 4,038 7.53 28 71 13 6

He also rushed for 207 yards and 4 TDs with 56 attempts. He was sacked 34 times.

2009 Passing Stats

GP CMP ATT CMP% YDS AVG TD LNG INT FUM

16 350 541 64.7 4,434 8.20 30 83 7 8

He also rushed for 316 yards and 5 TDs with 58 attempts. HE WAS SACKED A WHOPPING 50 TIMES.

I'm looking at these numbers and I can't help but think, keeping in mind just how similar these QBs are generally speaking, that Robert can put up something very close here. It's hard to imagine Robert throwing for as many yards (that wouldn't even be fair considering Aaron got to start three years into his career with a much better knowledge of NFL defense's), but it isn't hard to imagine Robert running for more yards to make up the difference in total yardage.

For example, Robert might throw for 400 yards less than Rodgers did his first year (which would leave him with 3,600 yards passing, about 225 yards/game on average) but he'll make up for it with that amount more in rushing than Rodgers (around 600 rushing yards, which translates into about 40 yards/game on average).

Apply the same idea to where the TDs come from as well (less passing TDs but more rushing TDs). Now, with our emphasis on the running game I don't think Robert will score as many TDs in total (32 Rodgers' first year, 35 his second), but I don't think it'll be so far off.

I don't know, but to me that's pretty feasible. I think Robert can certainly improve another 400 yards passing the next year after his first like Rodgers did as well. The more I look at it, the more I see these Robert having a very similar career trajectory to Rodgers'. Let's hope and pray that also includes a Super Bowl win and not just when it comes to the stats.

[88Comrade2000]

nm nm nm nm

[darrelgreenie]

From a skillset perspective I think the Griffin/Rodgers comparison is spot on.

However, Rodgers had 2 years with one of the best QB grooming systems/staffs in the NFL before he became the starter.

Also, the year Rodgers took over the Packers OL was good, IIRC it was the following season that injuries hit.

And yes I agree that Rodgers did hold the ball a little long early in his career.

But the Packers use a lot of 5-7 step drops that are pass protection intensive compared to a shorter passing game, which imo inflates their sack stats.

[RandyHolt]

Its a lot about handling pressure from the defense, and coaches recognition of OL's limitations.

Manning seems one of the best to produce with a shoddy offensive line. I think because he was allowed to run the offense from the LOS.

If we have shoddy pass pro, is Shanahan going to ask RGIII to sit in the pocket? Is he going to keep him under center, forced to side peddle in his drops in the face of a ferocious rush, snap after snap? Or will Shanahan recognize a problem, and get him in gun, maybe run some hurry up to slow down the D's ability to stay fresh, and put III in a better place to succeed.

I think early on he will expect the OL to hold up, and keep III standing tall in the pocket like Mark Rypien. I bet that's where Manning was as a rookie. Run the play, don't think. But I do think we will see III move around. We saw it last game. At some point, coaches just have to go ahead and call plays where he is away from the rush, and end the improvising on almost every pass.

[TSO]

From a skillset perspective I think the Griffin/Rodgers comparison is spot on.

However, Rodgers had 2 years with one of the best QB grooming systems/staffs in the NFL before he became the starter.

Also, the year Rodgers took over the Packers OL was good, IIRC it was the following season that injuries hit.

And yes I agree that Rodgers did hold the ball a little long early in his career.

But the Packers use a lot of 5-7 step drops that are pass protection intensive compared to a shorter passing game, which imo inflates their sack stats.

That would make sense seeing just how high his sack totals jumped.

And, yeah, I agree that it's actually a bit unfair for Robert to be compared to Rodgers since he will not be getting the luxury of sitting and learning one offensive system. That being said, coming out of college who is the more talented QB, Robert or Aaron? If today was the draft and you had no idea how Rodgers would end up who would you select in the draft?

I would honestly take Griffin over Rodgers based on college careers and potential. So, if we can accept Robert as even slightly more talented than Rodgers, that would balance out (maybe not perfectly, however) a little of the advantage Rodgers had for being able to sit and learn for two years. That's why I think it's not out of the question to compare the two and believe Robert can have a similar affect on his team, albeit in a slightly different way (more rushing yards, less passing).

I may be wrong, of course, and this is all speculation for the most part as none of us can sense the unknown.

[darrelgreenie]

And, yeah, I agree that it's actually a bit unfair for Robert to be compared to Rodgers since he will not be getting the luxury of sitting and learning one offensive system. That being said, coming out of college who is the more talented QB, Robert or Aaron? If today was the draft and you had no idea how Rodgers would end up who would you select in the draft?

Without a doubt I would take Griffin.

Griffin is like Aaron Rodgers on HGH.

I would honestly take Griffin over Rodgers based on college careers and potential. So, if we can accept Robert as even slightly more talented than Rodgers, that would balance out (maybe not perfectly, however) a little of the advantage Rodgers had for being able to sit and learn for two years. That's why I think it's not out of the question to compare the two and believe Robert can have a similar affect on his team, albeit in a slightly different way (more rushing yards, less passing).

No, no, trust me I'm with you on Griffin physical skillset superiority.

But, imo McCarthy is a QB guru and a great QB teacher in the WCO tradition.

I think sitting and more importantly learning to play QB in high functioning WCO was invaluable.

Rodger was trained and groomed and took over an offense that was already capable of functioning at a high level.

Griffin is training on the job with an offense that is learning and hopefully has all the pieces to become a high functioning offense.

I may be wrong, of course, and this is all speculation for the most part as none of us can sense the unknown.

True indeed, we could all be wrong.

But if you took away speculation then what would we have left?

-Ma'a salama brother

[MartinC]

Actually rather than looking at Peyton Manning, take a look at Eli's rookie stats. 9 games started, just over 1000 yards passing at 115 yards a game, 48% completion rate, 6TDs and 9 INTs. Trust me when I say those stats flater him - he looked totally lost as a rookie.

The sky is NOT falling if RGIII struggles as a rookie - I just want to see him making progress.

[NoVaSkins21]

One number I think will be significantly different is that "sacks" statistic. Only taking 22 sacks as a rookie is a testament to the OL & also to the rookie QB. Seems to me, keeping the number of hits on your rookie QB is probably a pretty good indicator of how they do through that first season. Incredible that Manning only was sacked 11 times in the last 11 games.

Question is: Can the Skisn OL keep RG protected, and allow him to progress thru the year?

The OL is going to be an integral part of RG3's success this year and beyond. Right now it's a question mark at best. Griffin can definitely make plays with his feet, but for them to really execute the Shanahans' offense, the OL is going to have to hold up. 22 sacks is pretty incredible for Manning's first year and after that the Colts made sure that Manning had to stay upright to become the HOF player he was for them.

[pointyfootball]

Without a doubt I would take Griffin.

Griffin is like Aaron Rodgers on HGH.

You would really take Griffin over Rodgers? Or is that based on their college careers? If that's true, one would also take him over Brady, Brees, and many other QBs. It's what makes NFL talent evaluation so tough.

[sQuijeW]

dude get to the 21st century. time moves much faster, players are expected to adjust much quicker, results should appear much sooner. RG3 better perform just as well if not better than cam and even dalton for that matter. dont set the bar so low just because you are afraid to get hurt when you see rg3 do terribly.

teams are structured differently with completely different mentalities than the teams almost TWO DECADES ago. Modern teams (for the most part), now, adjust their schemes to help the rookies succeed as best they can where as when peyton maning first started playing football with the dinosaurs, teams were expecting and waiting for rookies to adjust to their system. two different mentalities. life moves faster now, so expectations, which were just as high back then as it is now, are given a shorter time to be met. we are set to have RG3 do better than last season, if he doesnt then we will all start having excuses... ahem

it's ok to dream and even if you are too afraid to do so, dont try to temper it for everyone.

[darrelgreenie]

You would really take Griffin over Rodgers? Or is that based on their college careers? If that's true, one would also take him over Brady, Brees, and many other QBs. It's what makes NFL talent evaluation so tough.

That being said, coming out of college who is the more talented QB, Robert or Aaron? If today was the draft and you had no idea how Rodgers would end up who would you select in the draft?

Without a doubt I would take Griffin. Griffin is like Aaron Rodgers on HGH.

[Destructis]

I agree with everything said in the OP. The difference I see with Griffin right now is going to be boots and rolls. It won't allow the defense to cheat to one side or the other like they did Peytons first year. Peytons first year, they knew that he would have trouble with the reads. Griffin will have those same problems, but with his movement possibilities, it changes things for the defense. Defenders have to stay home so that freezes the defense to a point. It will be less of a read for them and more of a react. By that I mean, they won't see the flow going right and immediately go that direction. With Griffin, they may see the flow going right, but have to wait to react to see if Griffin boots to the left before reacting to it. That opens up a lot of things in the passing game.

Time will tell but I think Shanny is planning on using that to his benefit.

[Gibbs Hog Heaven]

I think a few folk have taken the 'comparison' in the thread title a little too literally.

I was merely interested in how the rookie season of a man who is right up there in the GOAT debate IMHO played out; being as we have one of two QB's taken this year widely considered the best potential talent since that guy came out; to give an example of what could happen here this year and not panic therein.

Hail.

[Skinsfan4life83]

dude get to the 21st century. time moves much faster, players are expected to adjust much quicker, results should appear much sooner. RG3 better perform just as well if not better than cam and even dalton for that matter. dont set the bar so low just because you are afraid to get hurt when you see rg3 do terribly.

teams are structured differently with completely different mentalities than the teams almost TWO DECADES ago. Modern teams (for the most part), now, adjust their schemes to help the rookies succeed as best they can where as when peyton maning first started playing football with the dinosaurs, teams were expecting and waiting for rookies to adjust to their system. two different mentalities. life moves faster now, so expectations, which were just as high back then as it is now, are given a shorter time to be met. we are set to have RG3 do better than last season, if he doesnt then we will all start having excuses... ahem

it's ok to dream and even if you are too afraid to do so, dont try to temper it for everyone.

If you are expecting RGIII to blow up like Cam than I'm afraid you may be sadly disappointed. To expect a rookie to come in and just light up the league is just unrealistic. You base your opinion on two rookies from last year and completely ignore every other rookie QB who struggled early on in their careers. It's good to be excited about our young signal caller buy font expect miracles. It takes time.

[TheShredder]

As it's one thing to compare a great QB to a NEW Rookie QB in 2012, there's a trend that requires consideration. It has been more common for touted Rookie QB's to come out and have better rookie seasons than in the past.

Sam Bradford had a decent first year as did Cam Newton. I see RG III to be a step up from these two. 60% completion rates and a positive TD/INT ration have been normal. We are not in 2004 or 2005 anymore and even then Eli Manning's first 16 game season had him at these ratios.

As with each season, injuries and talent in the supporting cast is paramount in rookie year success. The OL is going to figure into RG III's stat line for sure. As the new QB matures and becomes more comfortable in the pocket, teams will have to protect much more and not be able to push him around like would be expected in the first 1/4 of the season.

RB's and a rushing attack will be huge in a rookie stat line and the ability to dump and burn a contain and collapse rush will keep this philosophy in check. As RG III can place a deep ball and a connection with a speedy WR becomes common place, the game is going to slow down and defending safeties are going to be required to stay out of the box and protect.

RGIII is going to come into his own predictably with success and failure just as any other team in the NFL. More tape, more effective game planning. I would expect some initial success and some poor mistakes to result in turnovers. The Skins 2012 will not hinge on RGIII, but the results of a Defense that's expected to be in the top 10 or better is where the Win Loss column will be determined in the end.

$.02