Bleacherreport: Andrew Luck vs. Robert Griffin III Simulation performed 1,001 times on WhatIfSports.com

[21MadFan]

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1176475-andrew-luck-vs-robert-griffin-iii-simulation

As a kid I loved the Choose Your Own Adventure series of books. In case you are in the dark, the premise was pretty simple. You read a few pages before the book presents two or three options of which direction the story should head next.

Do you want to turn around? Turn to page 46. Do you want to enter the cave? Turn to page 54. Because the reader was ultimately in control of the narrative, each book had several dozen possible endings — much like an athlete's rookie season.

For Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III, their paths have already been chosen for them by Indianapolis and Washington. Unless Peyton Manning winds up back in Indy and/or Rex Grossman magically transforms into the NFL's version of The Natural, the two rookies will be starters this season.

So, following the NFL Draft, I was presented with two choices:

1) Wait until the third week of the NFL preseason (late August) to watch Luck and RGIII go head-to-head for a couple offensive series before heading to the sidelines.

2) Use the WhatIfSports.com NFL simulation engine to "play" Luck's Colts versus Griffin's Redskins 1,001 times with both teams at full strength for 60 (or more) minutes right now.

I chose No. 2. I chose wisely.

Luck's Colts vs. RGIII's Redskins

Matchup Win% Avg Score

Washington Redskins 58.8 24.2

Indianapolis Colts 41.2 21.7

Now for you to completely comprehend how this simulation played out, let me pull the curtain aside for just a minute and explain how we generate the results above.

1) Each NFL player within our simulation engine possesses a variety of offensive ratings that account for average passing, rushing and receiving stats.

Luck and RGIII began as average league quarterbacks within our engine (50) but were awarded a few more positive ratings in areas where they excelled.

2) Each NFL defense (as a whole) possesses a variety of defensive ratings that account for their ability to stop the pass/rush, how often they pick up sacks/interceptions, and how well they perform in the red zone.

3) Each team possesses a simulation offensive playbook. This was set to pass (60/40 play distribution) for the Colts and run (50/50) for the Redskins.

After 1,001 simulations the computers like the Washington Redskins to beat the Indianapolis Colts 58.8 percent of the time by an average score of 24.2 to 21.7.

Luck's and RGIII's Average Game Stats

Player Avg. CMP % Avg. Pass Yards Avg. TD Passes

Griffin III 61.4 235.9 1.56

Luck 61.6 267.6 1.52

Luck's passing numbers are better, in part, because he attempted six more passes on average when compared to Griffin. However, Griffin averaged nine carries a game for 63 yards (7.0 yards per carry) in the 1,001 simulations.

Keep in mind that RGIII could rush for 95 yards in one simulation game and the next he could only muster 34. The stats above are just averages. In both quarterback's cases they averaged better than one touchdown pass per game.

Knowing the way our engine works inside and out, my assumption is that with the average margin of victory roughly a field goal, it was the Redskins' defense that was ultimately the difference in the 1,001 simulations and not so much the quarterback play.

In the end, Griffin and Luck are pretty even in the simulation world. We'll see how that translates in the real world this September to December.

[terpskins10]

I think 63 rush yards per game is pushing it. That equates to a 1000 yard season and only one QB in NFL history has done that, and Vick is a much better runner than Griffin is.

I'd be happy if he put up a Newton-eqsue 700 yards, but I'll also be content with anything over 450 or so.

[RonArtest15]

This is about as revelant as when Sports Center does a Madden-sim to see who will win playoff games.

No offense to you, OP. Nothing really matters until they actually play on the field.

[21MadFan]

This is about as revelant as when Sports Center does a Madden-sim to see who will win playoff games.

No offense to you, OP. Nothing really matters until they actually play on the field.

I didn't do the simulation I just found the article and though I would share

[frommd]

RGIII should at least be able to out-rush Rex from last year... by halftime of game one.

Rex in 2011 - 20 Attempts for 11 yards

2011 Stats

[RonArtest15]

I didn't do the simulation I just found the article and though I would share

I know you didn't. Personally, I put ZERO stock in stuff like this.

[Missouri_Skins_Fan]

Lets hope for these stats to come to reality & for RG3 to remain healthy as well. If he does average 63 yards per game & 1000 yard seasons regularly? He will be wearing a Gold Jacket, as well as be on this list.

http://www.craveonline.com/sports/articles/176896-top-5-rushing-quarterbacks-of-all-time

Top 5 Rushing Quarterbacks Of All Time By James LeBeau October 26, 2011

1. Steve Young

There may be two others that hold an edge to Steve Young in amount of yards rushed, career wise, by a QB but make no mistake about it, if you are a QB that can run, then Young is who you want to emulate. The Hall of Fame, Super Bowl MVP, former San Francisco 49ers signal caller had the rare gift of explosive speed combined with deadly accuracy. Thanks, perhaps, to the coaching guidance of Bill Walsh, Young was able to maximize both aspects of his gift. For his career, he compiled 4239 rushing yards and a 5.9 YPC, as well as an NFL record 43 rushing touchdowns (the most ever by a QB). To balance that, he also holds the NFL record for the highest career quarterback rating at 96.8.

2. Randall Cunningham

Once anointed by Sports Illustrated as the NFL's “Ultimate Weapon”, Randall Cunningham was the first rushing QB to showcase game-breaking running ability on a weekly basis. Over his 16 year career that included 4 Pro Bowls, Cunningham would amass 4482 yards and 32 TDs with 6.6 YPC average on an NFL QB record 775 rushes. His greatest rushing season came in 1990 when led the Eagles in rushing and produced the third-highest quarterback total of 924 yards.

3. Michael Vick

If you were basing this top 5 list on pure running ability, then Michael Vick would be at the top of the list. Vick currently hold the record for the most rushing yards by a QB at 5,002 and did it in only nine season. He takes the term 'explosive runner' to new heights as he is an every down threat to take it to the house with his legs. While still a member of the Atlanta Falcons back in 2006, Vick broke the single season QB rushing record with 1,039 yards. If he could ever evolve into more of a passing threat, then Vick has the chance to leapfrog to the top of this lest and may one day be wearing his own gold jacket in Canton.

4. Donovan McNabb

Is it me or does a lot of rushing QB's make their way to Philadelphia. I mean, we are talking Randall Cunningham, Michael Vick, Vince Young and, of course, who could forget Donovan McNabb. McNabb, who is nearing the end of his football career at 13 seasons so far, is one of the most entertaining personalities that the league has ever seen. Thankfully for him, and for us, he was also gifted with a rocket for an arm and a pretty serviceable pair of legs. Never one to embrace the title of a 'running QB', McNabb nonetheless compiled some pretty impressive stats on the ground over his career. Over his 13 current years in the league, McNabb has managed to rush for 3459 yards and 29 Tds.

5. Fran Tarkenton

How can you have a top rushing QB list and not include the man known as the 'Mad Scrambler'? The answer is, you can't, so I'm throwing Tarkenton on here as my fifth greatest rushing QB of all time. The Hall of Fame QB rushed for 3,674 rushing yards and 32 touchdowns on 675 carries during his illustrious career, including an NFL record rushing touchdown in 15 straight seasons. What makes his running stats even more impressive is that Tarkenton did it in an era where the QB position was basically drop back and stand there. When Tarkenton retired in 1981, he held the NFL records for pass attempts, completions, yardage, and touchdowns; rushing yards by a quarterback; and wins by a starting quarterback. Now that's a complete QB.

Obviously, Cam Newton is on his way to this list.

But having a guy like RG3 capable of making this list as well, just goes to show WHY, we paid what we paid to get him.

And Shanahan is correct.

RG3 has the ability to do what no QB has ever done in the NFL. Including Steve Young, who's #1 on this list.

What I have highlighted in red, is what RG3 would shatter, with the simulation.

[Diesel Hog]

Looking forward to the actual live match up this pre-season. I wonder if this will be one of the most watched pre-season games ever?

[Zzj]

I think 63 rush yards per game is pushing it. That equates to a 1000 yard season and only one QB in NFL history has done that, and Vick is a much better runner than Griffin is.

If he does average 63 yards per game & 1000 yard seasons regularly? He will be wearing a Gold Jacket

Remember that it was a simulation against one team, the Colts, who finished dead last in wins last year with a terrible defense. So, (and bearing in mind that it's just a simulation anyway), this is not indicative of Griffin's potential running ability against any other team in the league.

[pjfootballer]

We averaged 18 ppg last season. If we average 24 ppg with our defense, that's worth 3-5 more wins this year.

[roanoker]

Looking forward to the actual live match up this pre-season. I wonder if this will be one of the most watched pre-season games ever?

I wish it were the 1st preseason game instead of the 3rd. Luck and RG3 will probably play a series or a quarter max.

[757SeanTaylor21]

Well I clicked the link and it didn't have 2012 redskins on there nor the colts , it only had the 2011 team and no Luck or Griffin was on the depth chart. So how did they get him on there?

[Enter Apotheosis]

I think 63 rush yards per game is pushing it. That equates to a 1000 yard season and only one QB in NFL history has done that, and Vick is a much better runner than Griffin is.

I'd be happy if he put up a Newton-eqsue 700 yards, but I'll also be content with anything over 450 or so.

Remember that he is rushing for 63 yards per game over 1001 games against the Colts. They haven't exactly had a great defense out there lately and it's unlikely that they see MAJOR improvement in year one under Pagano.

[Commander Chaaarmnder]

I wish it were the 1st preseason game instead of the 3rd. Luck and RG3 will probably play a series or a quarter max.

Actually, if i'm not mistaken the 3rd preseason game is where the starters typically play a half or sometimes even 3 quarters.

[Hitman21ST]

I wish it were the 1st preseason game instead of the 3rd. Luck and RG3 will probably play a series or a quarter max.

:no:

The third preseason game is where the starters play the most (generally about three quarters). It's the warm-up for the regular season

[Califan007 The Constipated]

Actually, if i'm not mistaken the 3rd preseason game is where the starters typically play a half or sometimes even 3 quarters.

:no:

The third preseason game is where the starters play the most (generally about three quarters). It's the warm-up for the regular season

What they said lol :yes:...

[cphil006]

:no:

The third preseason game is where the starters play the most (generally about three quarters). It's the warm-up for the regular season

That's the case for starters who've established themselves and veterans.

Rookies are a different case. It really all depends... I could see RG3 playing a half, Cousins playing the other half, depending on progress.

[Hitman21ST]

That's the case for starters who've established themselves and veterans.

Rookies are a different case. It really all depends... I could see RG3 playing a half, Cousins playing the other half, depending on progress.

I can guarantee that, barring injury, RG3 will play the majority of the game in week 3 of the preseason.

[RVAbrendan]

I can guarantee that, barring injury, RG3 will play the majority of the game in week 3 of the preseason.

I wouldn't be surprised to see him out after the half.

With our history of injuries and bad luck, may be better not to take a chance.

[cphil006]

I can guarantee that, barring injury, RG3 will play the majority of the game in week 3 of the preseason.

That's great, but you have no way of knowing. It's only a guess. He might. He might play more than one quarter in the first preseason game.

[Hitman21ST]

That's great, but you have no way of knowing. It's only a guess. He might. He might play more than one quarter in the first preseason game.

He'll do that too. Probably the first quarter and a half of the first game, the first quarter of the second, the majority of the third, and maybe a series in the fourth.

[Rhodus333]

I love this kinda stuff but it should always be taken with a grain of salt. It fails to address the REAL question on everyone's mind.......Could either of them survive a full 10 rounds against Rocky Balboa in his prime?:box:

[roanoker]

Actually, if i'm not mistaken the 3rd preseason game is where the starters typically play a half or sometimes even 3 quarters.

:no:

The third preseason game is where the starters play the most (generally about three quarters). It's the warm-up for the regular season

Great. You're probably right. For some reason, I was thinking that in the first game the starters play a half, second game 3 quarters, 3rd game a quarter (to prevent injuries) and the 4th game the wannabes play. Thanks, now I'm really looking forward to the Indy game.

[amm0409]

Looking forward to the actual live match up this pre-season. I wonder if this will be one of the most watched pre-season games ever?

My buddies from NC are going to the game, Im jealous!!! Hopefully by then the throwback jersey's will be out so I can get one

[Son of Gadsden]

Could argue the same point on Madden.

However, if Luck and RG3 are anywhere close to similar skill, I would take our Redskins over the Colts every day of the week. They got 2 wins, we got 5. They lost to terrible teams, we beat the super bowl champions twice. Our team is the better team. Add in two rookie QB's, in my mind it doesn't change much.