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The Draft Analysis Thread. For those who still advocate shortcuts.


FSUSkins24

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I was going to do a detail analysis yesterday for 49ers and Redskins but they locked me from posting new thread. So I did a quickie in another thread to prove that 49ers didn't win just because of Jim. They have key players there already and he helped them play better.

Point is, this team needs at least 4 years of drafting and signing key FA. And having 4 x 7th round picks is not the same as have one in each round(1 - 4). We are on the right track.

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I was going to do a detail analysis yesterday for 49ers and Redskins but they locked me from posting new thread. So I did a quickie in another thread to prove that 49ers didn't win just because of Jim. They have key players there already and he helped them play better.

Point is, this team needs at least 4 years of drafting and signing key FA. And having 4 x 7th round picks is not the same as have one in each round(1 - 4). We are on the right track.

I was gonna give credit to the person who inspired me to do this, but I forgot the poster's name. It was you. You inspired this.

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THIS! Being able to evaluate a player is huge, sometimes you luck into a great player, but when you're trading away your draft picks you're not even giving yourself a chance for either.

I'm not saying trade the farm for Luck, but I wouldn't object to two or three firsts and a second or two. We can work trades in the draft to recoup those picks.

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Posted this in another thread:

Let's say for sake of argument we do this:

1st round: QB

2nd round: RT

3rd round: ILB

4th round: RG

4th round: CB

Then in FA we sign a LG, WR, S, CB, ILB (not all of these need to be flashy signings, just upgrades)

How would this be for a rebuild just looking at the O:

2009 / 2012

QB: Campbell / 2012 1st round pick (MS)

RB: Portis / Roy Helu (MS)

FB: Sellers / Young (MS)

LT: Samuels / Williams (MS)

LG: Dockery / Lichtensteiger/FA pickup (MS)

C: Rabach / Montgomery (holdover)

RG: Thomas / Chester (MS)

RT: Heyer / 2012 2nd round pick (MS)

TE: Cooley / Davis (holdover)

WR: Moss / Moss (holdover)

WR: Randel El / Hankerson (MS)

That's 8 of 11 replaced. How many of the players from 2009 are even still in the league?

And on Defense (going to do top three DL and top 4 LB):

2009/20012

DE Carter / Bowen (MS)

NT Haynesworth / Cofield (MS)

DE Daniels / Carriker (MS)

OLB Orakpo / Orakpo (holdover)

ILB Fletcher / Fletcher (holdover)

ILB ?Blades? / Riley/2012 3rd round pick (MS)

OLB McIntosh / Kerrigan (MS)

CB Hall / Hall (holdover)

CB Smoot / Wilson (MS)

S Landry / Landry (holdover)

S Horton? / Atogme (MS)

7 of 11 replaced. And that does not take into account depth that has been upgraded across the board.

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You left out: Rocky M, Chris Cooley, Logan Paulson, CB Barnes,

I was going by the Depth Chart (only using starters) and using the format

QB, RB, FB, WR, WR, TE, LT, LG, C, RG, RT

DE, NT, DE, OLB, MLB, MLB, OLB, CB, CB, FS, SS

I couldn't put Fred Davis and Chris Cooley/Logan Paulson in. Same with Rocky 52 (I had Riley as the starter) and Barnes didn't fall into the base 3-4 starters.

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not that it really matters to your point, but Marshall Newhouse (2010, 5th round, 169 overall) is the starting LT in place of an injured Chad Clifton, not Derek Sherrod.

Also, not sure what defensive alignment you're using for starters here. If it's the 2-4-5 Nickel that we use most often, then Tramon Williams should be added to the list. If it's the base 3-4, then he should be there in place of Sam Shields as Woodson gets the other corner spot.

---------- Post added November-15th-2011 at 04:23 PM ----------

Awesome analysis..kudos! OTOH, I'm disheartened to know that we're so far out from a competent team. We're moving (crawling) in the right direction, but still have a LONG way to go! Based on your stats, GB has 20 starters that they drafted, SF has 17, and lowly us has 9. We've got some work to do over the next several years to in order to become relevant again.

if you put our injured players back into the lineup, then you can add Nick Collins as another starter drafted (assuming he ever plays football again :() and Frank Zombo as an Undrafted Free Agent.

Chad Clifton and Mike Neal take spots in the starting lineup, both drafted by the Packers, and unseating other players drafted by the Packers, so that's a wash.

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not that it really matters to your point, but Marshall Newhouse (2010, 5th round, 169 overall) is the starting LT in place of an injured Chad Clifton, not Derek Sherrod.

I was kind of shocked when Newhouse started and Sherrod didn't. He played earlier this season, didn't he?

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I was kind of shocked when Newhouse started and Sherrod didn't. He played earlier this season, didn't he?

Derek Sherrod only played when both Bulaga and Clifton were hurt at the same time; otherwise, Newhouse has been the #1 backup. Heck, Sherrod wasn't even activated until Bulaga missed a game. Sherrod's had a hard time adjusting to the NFL because of the lockout and because they were splitting his reps between LT and LG in training camp until TJ Lang ran away with the job.

Newhouse has had an entire year to develop before hitting the field. I don't remember him even being activated last season. I think TJ Lang was our backup option at Tackle after Tauscher went down and Bulaga filled in as the starter.

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Having a guy, who was possibly the top choice overall in that draft, fall to 24?

The Redskins aren't that lucky.

The Redskins were that lucky. Horrible mismanagement of the draft just led to us reaching for a QB with the very next pick.

Breaks like that happen to varying degrees in every draft and good franchises capitalize on them.

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The Redskins were that lucky. Horrible mismanagement of the draft just led to us reaching for a QB with the very next pick.

Breaks like that happen to varying degrees in every draft and good franchises capitalize on them.

yeah, you guys took Carlos Rogers before Aaron was drafted, right? Must suck to see them both excelling with different teams.

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yeah, you guys took Carlos Rogers before Aaron was drafted, right? Must suck to see them both excelling with different teams.

I've always said that I don't think we would've been able to do half the job McCarthy and the Packers front office did developing Rodgers and building a team and support system around him.

Carlos Rogers can suck it, though.

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It sucks on the outstanding Rodgers.

Not so much on the career average Rogers who's just having one of those seasons.

Hail.

Or maybe Los is thriving b/c he's in a better situation. He was always good here, just couldn't seem to hold on to the pics. Los isn't the first guy that under-performed here and then and went elsewhere and thrived. Brandon Lloyd comes to mind.

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Or maybe Los is thriving b/c he's in a better situation. He was always good here, just couldn't seem to hold on to the pics. Los isn't the first guy that under-performed here and then and went elsewhere and thrived. Brandon Lloyd comes to mind.

Totally moot point now he's gone, but Rogers was FAR from a first round corner in DC.

He was the best cover corner on the team, but that was saying little given the competition around him. An ES myth grew about Carlos down to a 6 game period in the 6-2 start in Zorn's first season when he completely shut down Boldin, Owens, Holt, Edwards and Johnson in games against Arizona, Dallas, St Louis, Cleveland and Detroit respectively. All to his credit, but before and after he had WAY more poor games than good ones when average wide-outs dominated him. His lack of hands here where just a complete joke I never did hold him accountable for. It was the myth that he was a great cover corner through a 6 game spell that was so amusing.

Total dead issue now, but I'm personally MORE than happy he's no longer anywhere near this team going forward. We have more than enough problems in the secondary that his mediocre talent wouldn't cure.

Hail.

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Well he's playing like a first rounder right now, and he's definitely better than Josh Wilson who has been mediocre at best. Just pointing out that there does seem to be a pattern of players under-achieving for the skins and then thriving elsewhere.

---------- Post added November-15th-2011 at 10:42 PM ----------

Great OP btw. Really shows how deep of a hole the Skins have dug for themselves.

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Good luck to him out West. Nothing against him per se. Maybe it will last, maybe it won't. I personally think he's an average corner who can be good/very good on his day. But those days are too few and far between.

The bigger picture of our secondary, corners and safeties, is just another glaring, major issue still to fix going forward with this team; both in starters and back-up's.

Hail.

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1) Dallas Cowboys

QB: Tony Romo sits to pee (2003 Undrafted)

RB: DeMarco Murray (2011 Round 3, Pick 71)

C: Phil Costa (2010 Undrafted)

T: Doug Free (2007 Round 4, Pick 122)

T: Tyron Smith (2011 Round 1, Pick 9)

TE: Jason Witten (2003 Round 2, Pick 69)

WR: Miles Austin (2006 Undrafted)

WR: Dez Bryant (2010 Round 1, Pick 24)

DT: Jay Ratliff (2005 Round 7, Pick 224)

DE: Jason Hatcher (2006 Round 3, Pick 92)

LB: DeMarcus Ware (2005 Round 1, Pick 11)

LB: Bradie James (2003 Round 3, Pick 103)

LB: Sean Lee (2010 Round 2, Pick 55)

LB: Anthony Spencer (2007 Round 1, Pick 26)

CB: Mike Jenkins (2008 Round 1, Pick 25)

CB: Terence Newman (2003 Round 1, Pick 5)

PK: Dan Bailey (2011 Undrafted)

2) Number Of Picks By Round In 10 Years

1st round picks: 10

2nd round picks: 10

3rd round picks: 8

4th round picks: 14

5th round picks: 8

6th round picks: 16

7th round picks: 14

3) Number Of Picks Per Draft In 10 Years

Drafts with 4 picks or less: 0

Drafts with 6 picks or less: 2

Drafts with 7 picks or more: 8

Drafts with 10 picks or more: 1

Drafts with 12 picks or more: 1

1) Cleveland Browns

QB: Colt McCoy (2010 Round 3, Pick 85)

FB: Owen Marecic (2011 Round 4, Pick 124)

G: Jason Pinkston (2011 Round 5, Pick 150)

C: Alex Mack (2009 Round 1, Pick 21)

G: Shawn Lauvao (2010 Round 3, Pick 92)

T: Joe Thomas (2007 Round 1, Pick 3)

WR: Greg Little (2011 Round 3, Pick 59)

WR: Mohammed Massequoi (2009 Round 2, Pick 50)

DT: Phillip Taylor (2011 Round 1, Pick 21)

DT: Ahtyba Rubin (2008 Round 6, Pick 190)

DE: Jabaal Sheard (2011 Round 2, Pick 37)

LB: D'Qwell Jackson (2006 Round 2, Pick 34)

CB: Joe Haden (2010 Round 1, Pick 7)

SS: T.J. Ward (2010 Round 2, Pick 38)

2) Number Of Picks By Round In 10 Years

1st round picks: 10

2nd round picks: 13

3rd round picks: 6

4th round picks: 13

5th round picks: 11

6th round picks: 14

7th round picks: 8

3) Number Of Picks Per Draft In 10 Years

Drafts with 4 picks or less: 0

Drafts with 6 picks or less: 2

Drafts with 7 picks or more: 8

Drafts with 10 picks or more: 1

Drafts with 12 picks or more: 0

A couple of interesting points about these 2 teams, They both had disastrous trades in the last 10 years that cost them 1st round picks. The Browns for Brady Quinn and the Cowboys for Roy Williams. Also, the Cowboys 12 pick draft was 2009 and the only guys still on the team are Stephen McGee and David Beuhler (IR).

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