The Draft Analysis Thread. For those who still advocate shortcuts.

[FSUSkins24]

This is my first new thread so I'm hoping it turns out well, and people grasp what the Skins have been missing most. I wanted to analyze the previous drafts of the two teams with the best records in 2011.

It worked perfectly into what I was trying to do, because the two teams turned out to be the 9-0 Green Bay Packers (2010 Super Bowl Champions and potential back-to-back champs) and the 8-1 San Francisco 49ers (a team that just "turned the corner").

I looked into the previous drafts in three different ways, to give a few different snapshots.

1. Based off of NFL.com depth charts I listed the starters that were drafted by and have ONLY played for their current team. Undrafted players may have been on another team's practice squad, but debuted on their current team. I will also color code the players that have been drafted within the last 5 years, to show how a team can draft in a 5 year period.
   
2. I counted the number of picks each team had in the previous ten years (2002-2011) by round. Ideally you want at least one per round per year. So for 10 picks or more over the span. For less than 10 picks.
   
3. I counted the number of picks each team had in the previous ten years (2002-2011) by draft. Ideally for this one you want at least 7 picks or more per year. Drafts with 7 picks or more. Drafts with 6 picks or less.
   

You'll notice a common theme, and the obvious reason for why the Redskins have been terrible on the field.

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1) 2011 Green Bay Packers

QB: Aaron Rodgers (2005 Round 1, Pick 24)

RB: James Starks (2010 Round 6, Pick 193)

WR: Greg Jennings (2006 Round 2, Pick 52)

WR: Donald Driver (1999 Round 7, Pick 213)

TE: Jermichael Finley (2008 Round 3, Pick 91)

LT: Derek Sherrod (2011 Round 1, Pick 32)

LG: T.J. Lang (2009 Round 4, Pick 109)

C: Scott Wells (2004 Round 7, Pick 251)

RG: Josh Sitton (2008 Round 4, Pick 135)

RT: Bryan Bulaga (2010 Round 1, Pick 23)

DE: Jarius Wynn (2009 Round 6, Pick 182)

NT: B.J. Raji (2009 Round 1, Pick 9)

MLB: Desmond Bishop (2007 Round 6, Pick 192)

MLB: A.J. Hawk (2006 Round 1, Pick 5)

OLB Clay Matthews (2009 Round 1, Pick 26)

CB: Sam Shields (Undrafted, Debuted 2010 w/ Packers)

SS: Morgan Burnett (2010, Round 3, Pick 71)

K: Mason Crosby (2007 Round 6, Pick 193)

P: Tim Masthay (Undrafted, Debuted 2010 w/ Packers)

KR/PR: Randall Cobb (2011 Round 2, Pick 64)

2) Number Of Picks By Round In 10 Years

1st Round: 10

2nd Round: 10

3rd Round: 12

4th Round: 10

5th Round: 15

6th Round: 16

7th Round: 16

3) Number Of Picks Per Draft In 10 Years

Drafts with 4 picks or less: 0

Drafts with 6 picks or less: 2

Drafts with 7 picks or more: 8

Drafts with 10 picks or more: 4

Drafts with 12 picks or more: 1

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1) 2011 San Francisco 49ers

QB: Alex Smith (2005 Round 1, Pick 1)

RB: Frank Gore (2005 Round 3, Pick 65)

FB: Bruce Miller (2011 Round 7, Pick 211)

WR: Michael Crabtree (2009 Round 1, Pick 10)

TE: Vernon Davis (2006 Round 1, Pick 6)

LT: Joe Staley (2007 Round 1, Pick 28)

LG: Mike Iupati (2010 Round 1, Pick 17)

RG: Chilo Rachal (2008 Round 2, Pick 39)

RT: Anthony Davis (2010 Round 1, Pick 11)

NT: Isaac Sopoaga (2004 Round 4, Pick 104)

DE: Ray McDonald (2007 Round 3, Pick 97)

OLB: Parys Haralson (2006 Round 5, Pick 140)

MLB: Patrick Willis (2007 Round 1, Pick 11)

MLB: NaVorro Bowman (2010 Round 3, Pick 91)

CB: Tarell Brown (2007 Round 5, Pick 147)

FS: Dashon Goldson (2007 Round 4, 126)

P: Andy Lee (2004 Round 6, Pick 188)

2) Number Of Picks By Round in 10 Years

1st Round: 13

2nd Round: 7

3rd Round: 12

4th Round: 11

5th Round: 10

6th Round: 16

7th Round: 18

3) Number Of Picks Per Draft In 10 Years

Drafts with 4 picks or less: 0

Drafts with 6 picks or less: 1

Drafts with 7 picks or more: 9

Drafts with 10 picks or more: 4

Drafts with 12 picks or more: 0

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1) 2011 Washington Redskins

FB: Darrel Young (Undrafted, Debuted 2010 w/ Redskins)

TE: Fred Davis (2008 Round 2, Pick 48)

LT: Trent Williams (2010 Round 1, Pick 4)

C: Erik Cook (2010 Round 7, Pick 229)

ROLB: Brian Orakpo (2009 Round 1, Pick 13)

MLB: Perry Riley: (2010 Round 4, Pick 103)

LOLB: Ryan Kerrigan (2011 Round 1, Pick 16)

SS: Laron Landry (2007 Round 1, Pick 6)

KR/PR: Brandon Banks (Undrafted, Debuted 2010 w/ Redskins)

2) Number Of Picks By Round in 10 years (Shanny Picks)

1st Round: 8 (2)

2nd Round: 7 (1)

3rd Round: 7 (1)

4th Round: 4 (2)

5th Round: 9 (2)

6th Round: 14 (3)

7th Round: 19 (7)

3) Number Of Picks Per Draft In 10 Years (Shanny Drafts)

Drafts with 4 picks or less: 2 (0)

Drafts with 6 picks or less: 7 (1)

Drafts with 7 picks or more: 3 (1)

Drafts with 10 picks or more: 3 (1)

Drafts with 12 picks or more: 1 (1)

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What should be taken away from this:

• The more picks you have the better chance to strike gold on a player
  
• The 49ers have been building a winner for a while now. It's not just Harbaugh.
  
• A bad coach can make a good team play bad (Previous Niner coaches), but a good coach can't make a bad team play well (Shanahan)
  
• Trading picks and players for Andrew Luck (or anybody for that matter) doesn't benefit your team, it cripples your team
  
• The Redskins have not valued the draft in any shape or form, but that shouldn't be news to anyone. In 10 years we've had two drafts with 4 or less picks and one with 3!
  
• Good teams build through the draft
  
• If we're going to be making any big name signings, it should be the people drafting in Green Bay
  

This is a rebuild. The ONLY way to do it is through the draft. It takes time.

Anybody have anything else to add?

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11/16/11: Loved the feedback I received from the thread so I figured I'd delve a little deeper. A few posters said it would be interesting to see more teams from both ends of the spectrum. So I will be adding teams like the Steelers, Patriots, Dolphins, and so on... So please stay tuned.

Here is the Dolphins' Draft History

http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft?teamId=2700&type=team

We draft much better than they do (In terms of player evaluation). Unless it is a first round pick, they seem to miss A LOT.

1) 2011 Miami Dolphins (2-7)

FB: Charles Clay (2011 Round 6, Pick 174)

WR: Brian Hartline (2009 Round 4, Pick 108)

LT: Jake Long (2008 Round 1, Pick 1)

C: Mike Pouncey (2011 Round 1, Pick 15)

RG: Vernon Cary (2004 Round 1, Pick 19)

NT: Paul Soliai (2007 Round 4, Pick 108)

DE: Kendall Langford (2008 Round 3, Pick 66)

OLB: Koa Misi (2010 Round 2, Pick 40)

CB: Vontae Davis (2009 Round 1, Pick 25)

CB: Sean Smith (2009 Round 2, Pick 61)

FS: Reshad Jones (2010 Round 5, Pick 163)

SS: Yeremiah Bell (2003 Round 6, Pick 213)

P: Brandon Fields (2007 Round 7, Pick 225)

KR: Clyde Gates (2011 Round 4, Pick 111)

PR: Davone Bess (2008 Undrafted)

2) Number Of Picks By Round In 10 Years

1st Round: 8

2nd Round: 10

3rd Round: 9

4th Round: 9

5th Round: 10

6th Round: 11

7th Round: 17

3) Number Of Picks Per Draft In 10 Years

Drafts with 4 picks or less: 0

Drafts with 6 picks or less: 5

Drafts with 7 picks or more: 5

Drafts with 10 picks or more: 1

Drafts with 12 picks or more: 0

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2011 New England Patriots (6-3)

Here is the Patriots' Draft History

http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft?teamId=3200&type=team

*****Work with me on this one... they switch up their personnel a lot so if I didn't get the opening day starters down perfect, forgive me.

QB: Tom Brady (2000 Round 6, Pick 199)

RB: BenJarvus Green-Ellis (2008 Undrafted)

FB: Shane Vereen (2011 Round 2, Pick 56)

WR: Deion Branch (2002 Round 2, Pick 65) <---- If anybody doesn't want me including him because he played for the Seahawks let me know. I can change the rule that until now made sense or take him off.

TE: Ron Gronkowski (2010 Round 2, Pick 42) <---- Sticking with the rules I can't include A Hernandez, but yeah they play two TE a lot

LT: Matt Light (2001 Round 2, Pick 48)

LG: Logan Mankins (2005 Round 1, Pick 32)

C: Dan Koppen (2003 Round 5, Pick 164)

RT: Nate Solder (2011 Round 1, Pick 17)

*****They switch between the 3-4 and the 4-3 so I figured I'd stick with the 3-4 theme. And let's be honest when Wilfork is your NT and Spikes and Mayo are your MLBs you're gonna be very strong in that defense

NT: Vince Wilfork (2004 Round 1, Pick 21

MLB: Brandon Spikes (2010 Round 2, Pick 62)

MLB: Jerod Mayo (2008 Round 1, Pick 10)

OLB: Gary Guyton (2008 Undrafted)

CB: Devin McCourty (2010 Round 1, Pick 27)

CB: Ras-I Dowling (2011 Round 2, Pick 33)

FS: Pat Chung (2009 Round 2, Pick 34)

K: Stephen Gostkowski (2006 Round 4, 118)

P: Zoltan Mesko (2010 Round 5, Pick 150)

KR/PR: Julian Edelman (2009 Round 7, Pick 232)

2) Number Of Picks By Round In 10 Years

1st Round: 10

2nd Round: 14

3rd Round: 11

4th Round: 13

5th Round: 10

6th Round: 14

7th Round: 18

3) Number Of Picks Per Draft In 10 Years

Drafts with 4 picks or less: 0

Drafts with 6 picks or less: 1

Drafts with 7 picks or more: 9

Drafts with 10 picks or more: 4

Drafts with 12 picks or more: 2

[SkinsHokieFan]

This is an excellent analysis. Having picks is critical. This team certainly needs to have a period of 9-10 picks per draft for the next 5 years.

Granted, I am also in the "grab Luck if possible camp" which I believe becomes very possible if we have the number 2 pick.

An excellent look nonetheless

[Hitman21ST]

Good post. It has to be asterisk'd though, because before we had Shanahan, we had Vinny, the worst GM in the history of the NFL. I agree that 99% of the time, more picks = more success. There are always exceptions, however. Luck is looking like the one prospect in a long time that looks like he would be that 1%.

Shanny and Allen were what this team needed. We started this draft with 6 picks (I think) and turned that into 12, the most in the draft. He knows how to rebuild, and is doing us right in every sense of the word.

[KCClybun]

Very good post sir.

What would be interesting is if you included the number of guys Mike drafted in Denver that are now here. Granted, we didn't draft them here, but they were still Mike Shanahan picks...

[jflow78]

Granted, I am also in the "grab Luck if possible camp" which I believe becomes very possible if we have the number 2 pick.

I would agree with you if Indianopolis wasn't almost guaranteed to have the #1 pick.

Anyway, nice first thread ODU. I'm a big stat guy so I like looking at the numbers and can appreciate the time you spent putting them together. However, I wonder what the numbers are like for other teams who aren't doing well.

EDIT:

For example, the Rams have averaged either 8-9 picks per draft the last decade (they've never had less than 7, and more than that 8 times), but they still suck and haven't EVER been any better in that time span.

[Hitman21ST]

I would agree with you if Indianopolis wasn't almost guaranteed to have the #1 pick.

Anyway, nice first thread ODU. I'm a big stat guy so I like looking at the numbers and can appreciate the time you spent putting them together. However, I wonder what the numbers are like for other teams who aren't doing well.

Not trying to derail the thread, but aside from St. Louis, I think Indy gives us the best shot at trading for him.

They keep Manning, don't want to trade within the conference, and with the picks they'll get they draft defense and offensive support for Peyton for the runs they'll want to make over the last few years of his career.

[RonYoungEra]

Awesome analysis..kudos! OTOH, I'm disheartened to know that we're so far out from a competent team. We're moving (crawling) in the right direction, but still have a LONG way to go! Based on your stats, GB has 20 starters that they drafted, SF has 17, and lowly us has 9. We've got some work to do over the next several years to in order to become relevant again.

[FSUSkins24]

For the record, I think that Shanahan and Allen are going about everything the right way. I tried to sneak that in there showing the Shanahan picks and drafts, the man put together a makeshift team that best fit his scheme because our players were so old and complete garbage. He needs time to build through the draft though. I die a little inside every time I read a post saying he should be fired two years in.

I made the post mainly to remind people how bad the drafts have been and how things seem to be different now.

We've seen some very very bright spots from Shanahan drafts. Kerrigan, Riley, Hankerson, and a lot of people are sold on Jenkins.

[Dan T.]

I hope all those Redskins "fans" openly rooting for losses take note of how Green Bay acquired the best quarterback in the NFL today.

[WhoRUSupposed2Be]

Pretty damning...

If you ask me, we'll be trading down again this year and signing Grossman to a modest extension next year while drafting a QB in the early rounds.

I'm prepared for this scenario because this is what I think Shanahan meant by a 5 year plan. He has already tried gambling but now he must keep his cards close to vest.

[Gibbs Hog Heaven]

Totally disagree with your assertion on Luck (San Francisco for one are having success inspite of the distinctly average Smith rather than because of him; and the chances are it will come to a dead end in the post season when someone takes away the run game); but a very good first thread indeed with some great analysis.

Thank you for the time taken.

Hail.

[SkinsHokieFan]

I hope all those Redskins "fans" openly rooting for losses take note of how Green Bay acquired the best quarterback in the NFL today.

Having a guy, who was possibly the top choice overall in that draft, fall to 24?

The Redskins aren't that lucky.

[Califan007 The Constipated]

Awesome analysis..kudos! OTOH, I'm disheartened to know that we're so far out from a competent team. We're moving (crawling) in the right direction, but still have a LONG way to go! Based on your stats, GB has 20 starters that they drafted, SF has 17, and lowly us has 9. We've got some work to do over the next several years to in order to become relevant again.

Hopefully those 9 starters from the last 5 drafts will grow if guys like Helu, Hankerson and Jenkins pan out into starters.

[theTruthTeller]

What would be interesting is seeing the same analysis for other perennially poor teams over the last 10 years - Cleveland, Jax, KC, Oak - and see how they messed up. I'm all for drafting a team, but the real benchmark is player evaluation. If you suck at that, you'll get a bad team whether you build through the draft or through free agency/trades.

[Brandon Lloyd Christmas]

Pretty damning...

If you ask me, we'll be trading down again this year and signing Grossman to a modest extension next year while drafting a QB in the early rounds.

I'm prepared for this scenario because this is what I think Shanahan meant by a 5 year plan. He has already tried gambling but now he must keep his cards close to vest.

you think we're signing grossman to an extension? im not sure how much more this fan base or our players themselves can take of that loser.

even a rookie from day 1 would probably give us a better chance than rex.

[theTruthTeller]

Having a guy, who was possibly the top choice overall in that draft, fall to 24?

The Redskins aren't that lucky.

You can't get lucky in the draft if you've already traded all of your picks.

[Hitman21ST]

you think we're signing grossman to an extension? im not sure how much more this fan base or our players themselves can take of that loser.

even a rookie from day 1 would probably give us a better chance than rex.

Honestly, I think we sign him to an extension, but as a #2. We draft two QBs in the draft this year (first round and 5th or later).

QB depth in TC next year:

1: First rounder

2: Rex

3: Late rounder

Rex at least knows the system and can teach it to the late rounder, who then takes over the two spot.

[Mursilis]

A bad coach can make a good team play bad (Previous Niner coaches), but a good coach can't make a bad team play well (Shanahan)

I don't agree with the assumption that Shanahan is a good coach anymore.

[Chris Worthy]

Great post OP.

Since it looks like Shanny and Bruce are trying to do this right way, whats the over/under to correct the number of years Vinny was in charge?

Shanny/Bruce: 2 years so far

Vinny: 99 to 01 then 02 to 09.

Typing that just made my stomach hurt.

[theTruthTeller]

you think we're signing grossman to an extension? im not sure how much more this fan base or our players themselves can take of that loser.

even a rookie from day 1 would probably give us a better chance than rex.

I can't even imagine a scenario where Grossman outplayed the rookie in preseason. Someone would organize a OFE (Occupy Fed Ex). Grossman will be gone at the end of the season.

[Gibbs Hog Heaven]

Having a guy, who was possibly the top choice overall in that draft, fall to 24?

The Redskins aren't that lucky.

Certainly not when we took Carlos fricking Rogers (Cue the "he's leading the league in INT's" crowd :doh:) over him on the hope that Captain Checkdown fell to us.

That worked out REAL well.

Hail.

[Hitman21ST]

I don't agree with the assumption that Shanahan is a good coach anymore.

What justifies that?

[Brandon Lloyd Christmas]

Honestly, I think we sign him to an extension, but as a #2. We draft two QBs in the draft this year (first round and 5th or later).

QB depth in TC next year:

1: First rounder

2: Rex

3: Late rounder

Rex at least knows the system and can teach it to the late rounder, who then takes over the two spot.

maybe, but unless our run game is completely fixed he pretty much guarantees we lose every game.

[JohnnyUtah]

Thank you for putting this together. Very well thought out.

I'm glad the new regime is conscious of the importance of the draft.

[MassSkinsFan]

I would agree with you if Indianopolis wasn't almost guaranteed to have the #1 pick.

Anyway, nice first thread ODU. I'm a big stat guy so I like looking at the numbers and can appreciate the time you spent putting them together. However, I wonder what the numbers are like for other teams who aren't doing well.

EDIT:

For example, the Rams have averaged either 8-9 picks per draft the last decade (they've never had less than 7, and more than that 8 times), but they still suck and haven't EVER been any better in that time span.

You'd have to do an analysis of all the teams and see not only if lots of picks doesn't always equate to good teams, but also the converse - does fewer than 7 picks always equate to a bad team.