PokerPackers take: 'Skins v. Pack

[PokerPacker]

Alright, so someone thought I should start a thread to give my view on the matchup we have ahead of us, so here's what I got. Bear with me, 'cause I don't usually tackle these massive threads.

Let me start by saying that this is not the Redskins team of last year. I am well aware of your lineup changes and your performance thus far, and it is not a team to be taken lightly.

matchups:

Redskins WRs v. Packers secondary

advantage: Green Bay

You guys have a decent receiver in Santana Moss, but in my opinion, he's not a #1. If its him v. Charles Woodson, he's not gonna have a good day. There is also the possibility he'll be lined up against Tramon Williams. That match up may be more even, however I did read somewhere that Tramon Williams had not given up a reception yet this season (though I think I may have read that from an article before the Lions game).

With Sam Shields looking to sit out another week, it is likely that the 3rd CB will likely be a now healthy Brandon Underwood, who was expected to play Nickel coming into the season before he hurt his shoulder and then had UDFA Sam Shields come in and wow the coaches. The matchup between him and your #2-3 receivers may be one to watch, as he hasn't really been battle-tested yet this season.

Strong Safety will be a bit of a question mark going into this game. Without Atari Bigby and now Morgan Burnett, we're running a bit thin at the position. It looks like that a now-healthy Charlie Peprah may be taking the spot. He's not a starting safety, but he may be workable. On the opposite side, Nick Collins will be dangerous as ever, and may punish McNabb on one of his inconsistent throws.

Redskins TEs v. Packers MLBs

Advantage: Redskins

With our best cover-LB Brandon Chillar, and our next best in Nick Barnett, ruled out, we will likely have a bit of trouble covering your TEs up the middle. There is a possibility Green Bay lines up Charles Woodson to cover Chris Cooley, which I normally would be comfortable with, but without Al Harris and Sam Shields, we do not have the same security as we normally would. However, with the Redskins receiver corps, it is still feasible. Back to TEs, with Woodson covering Cooley, that leaves Fred Davis. Perhaps we'd bring Nick Collins in to cover him you're in 2 TE sets?

Redskins O-line v. Packers D-line and OLBs

Advantage: Green Bay

I can back that up quite easily: Clay Matthews. NFL Sack leader who rushes the QB from every angle and attacks the O-line with a multitude of tools. He's now playing on the left side, which means (assuming Trent Williams is starting) he'll usually be up against Jammal Brown, who I've read has allowed almost as many sacks as Clay Matthews has taken. On the other side of the line, Brad Jones and Frank Zombo will look to create pressure and maybe come away with a sack if Matthews can flush McNabb that way. Cullen Jenkins has a sack in each game so far despite playing with a club. B.J. Raji will collapse the pocket giving McNabb nowhere to step up.

Redskins RBs v. Packers front 7

Advantage: not sure

Couple things I want to state here. First, Torain seems like he could be a legit RB. Second, while the Packers on paper seem to have given up a lot of yards on the ground, believe it or not a lot of that is from scrambling QBs (on a related note, would not be surprised to see McNabb get a few rushing yards in here). The D-line is very responsible with gap control allowing A.J. Hawk to get in and bring down the back (his solid run-defense is why we keep him around ... and because of injury, I suppose). Cullen Jenkins is playing with a club, which I would think is not the best thing for trying to take down a running back running at you with momentum.

Packers WRs v. Redskins secondary

Advantage: Packers

One of the questions about our WR corps was if Donald Driver could keep up the production despite his age. All early signs point to yes. He and Greg Jennings make for one hell of a 1-2 pairing on WR, and add in James Jones and Jordy Nelson as 3 and 4 and you have possibly the best WR corps in the league. Maybe Carlos Rogers will keep Jennings quiet, but Driver will still find a way to be heard, and Jones and Nelson will have you digging deep into your secondary.

Packers TEs v. Redskins LBs

Advantage: Packers

Jermichael Finley is uncoverable. don't really know what else to say here.

Packers O-line v. Redskins D-line and OLBs

Advantage: mixed results

Orakpo doesn't have many sacks this season, but from what I've read, he's been held... a lot. On the flip side, Rodgers hasn't been sacked very much, but there's been a bit of holding there, too. As a matter of fact, our O-line gets a LOT of penalties. Expect to see more. Don't know how healthy Clifton and Tauscher will be, but their backups in Bryan Bulaga and T.J. Lang are capable and won't be giving out all-access passes to the Aaron Rodgers show. Josh Sitton and Scott Wells have gone unnoticed, which is largely a good thing for interior linemen. It means they aren't getting beat. With Haynesworth likely out, that's one less threat up the middle. So why mixed results? I think Orakpo's gonna give us trouble on the outside, but I think the inside could hold up fine.

Packers RBs v. Redskins front 7

Advantage: Redskins

I miss Ryan Grant. I guess no everybody downplaying him can see he's not just a product of the system. Expect to see Jackson get the ball in early downs and Kuhn to get it in short-yardage situations. Perhaps we'll give Demetri Nance a longer look this week. A little lost on why we didn't sign Quinn Porter when we lost Grant, considering he was mostly cut because we held onto so many FBs and TEs. Perhaps we saw something in Nance?

Well that's enough matchups. I don't think those really do the football game as a whole justice, anyways.

key injuries

Packers:

Ryan Grant- don't need to say much here.

Nick Barnett- always-solid LB who can play side-line to side-line. Gonna miss him in base and nickel.

Brandon Chillar- best cover-LB on the team. Heck of an athlete. Really hurts the nickel defense and TE coverage.

Sam Shields- speedy nickel back who's been surprisingly good for an UDFA. May make moving Charles Woodson around a bit more difficult, though having Brandon Underwood back should help.

Morgan Burnett- Rookie SS who's played solid ball. Makes a few mistakes here and there, but starter material. likely to be replaced by Charlie Peprah who may be a serviceable starter, but hard to tell at this point.

Quinn Johnson- beastly run-blocking FB. I expect Kuhn to spend time at FB and HB with only Korey Hall left at FB (not that he's bad, but we like to mix it up).

Mark Tauscher- His status is still a bit unknown at this point. I think Bulaga or Lang should fill in just fine should he not be in game-condition, though.

Redskins:

Bidwell- Gave the front-office the perfect opening to get rid of him and pick Hunter Smith back up without having to explain themselves.

Trent Williams- Likely to play, but at what level? We'll have to wait and see.

Clinton Portis- Great at the blitz-pickup. McNabb's really gonna miss that when Matthews is getting in his face.

Albert Haynesworth- well, not an injury, but he may not play due to personal reasons. Redskins have experience playing without him, so they won't be lost, but they will be weaker.

Poker's take:

This game could go many ways. I would feel uncomfortable giving only one prediction, because I am not confident about this game at all. This is anybody's game. If the Packers want to win this, we'll need our special teams to be special (no more fumbled kickoffs and muffed punts! :mad: ), our receivers are gonna have to find space, and we need to cut out the damn penalties. The Redskins could come in here and earn a win with hard play in a close game or they could be handed a win by an undisciplined Packers team. On the other hand, the Packers could win decidedly with an offense firing on all cylinders and a stout defense. More realistically, I think the Packers win would come in a close game where the offense had some rough patches and some success while the defense allows quite a bit but also creates key-turnovers turning the tide in the Packers direction.

The one prediction I AM willing to make is that it is going to be an interesting game.

And finally... who wants to take pity on a poor displaced Packers fan and take him to the game? I can bring beer.

[Warhead36]

I think our secondary matches up with your WRs quite nicely. I'm actually more afraid of James Jones than anyone.

Woodson is a stud CB but he does tend to give up some big plays. Megatron had a field day vs. the Packers D last week and I'm assuming(correct me if I'm wrong)that Woodson was on him. Now Moss obviously isn't as good as Calvin Johnson but I think Shanny and co. can find a way to exploit that at least a few times.

Neither of us can run the ball(although we are improving), I could see this being a repeat of our Week 2 game with both QBs having huge days.

[PokerPacker]

I think our secondary matches up with your WRs quite nicely. I'm actually more afraid of James Jones than anyone.

Woodson is a stud CB but he does tend to give up some big plays. Megatron had a field day vs. the Packers D last week and I'm assuming(correct me if I'm wrong)that Woodson was on him. Now Moss obviously isn't as good as Calvin Johnson but I think Shanny and co. can find a way to exploit that at least a few times.

Neither of us can run the ball(although we are improving), I could see this being a repeat of our Week 2 game with both QBs having huge days.

Honestly, I think Moss is a borderline #1 receiver. Megatron is among the very best. And on the note of him "having a field day", one of those TDs was a result of blown coverage by Morgan Burnett, who was at the time playing with a blown ACL. But yes, Woodson does allow some plays to elite WRs.

for your secondary v. our receivers, I think it'll be a decent matchup between 1 and 2, but its our depth at receiver with Jones and Nelson that puts us over the top (as you said, you're afraid of Jones). I wasn't trying to say Driver and Jennings were beyond your corner's capabilities.

[THEREALTOR1]

Great write up PP.

Skins 27

pack 17

[lowek723]

Im expecting a great game myself...I dont have tickets but I have more beer if anyone has two extra tickets for pokerpacker and myself

[Johns Bass]

Nice write up

I don't know that GB makes that many penalties - other than the anomaly in Chicago - they have 11 in the other three games and had 3 of against the Lions last week. Quite an improvement from the previous week.

It will be interesting to see how well the GB O Line stands up (literally). One way to help is to do like they did last week; the offense held the ball for all of 22 min's.

There may be some preparation issues for GB on the RB's because there just anything much out there yet. Simpson will probably return KO's or at least be in position to.

Over the last two weeks, Packers have given up more pass yds than the Skins have and about the same rushing which was before losing their #3 tackler.

Neither of these teams have shown much in terms of second half scoring. On the other hand, they have not shown much in terms of stopping their opponents from scoring past halftime either.

Rodgers 5 INT's/McNabb 2 - and Washington has one more forced fumble than GB; in a close game, turnovers can be huge.

Should be an interesting game to say the least. I see Rodgers getting sacked (he is much better protected this year but has still gone down 5 times) a couple of times and tossing an INT.

Skins 30

GB 24

[Gigantor]

Good analysis. I do think that Hasslet will attempt to blitz Rogers. Not bringing the house, but safety and corner blitzes from the edge. If it works, then he'll stick to it.

I admit it's a huge gamble because Rodgers can get rid of the ball quickly; however, it would have to be to a TE. I think McIntosh and Landry can hold long enough. I expect this gamble early.

If it doesn't work, I think we go to a 4 man front and drop back like we did against Philly.

An interesting game for sure.

Skins 24

Pack 21

[PokerPacker]

Nice write up

thank you :bow:

I don't know that GB makes that many penalties - other than the anomaly in Chicago - they have 11 in the other three games and had 3 of against the Lions last week. Quite an improvement from the previous week.

It will be interesting to see how well the GB O Line stands up (literally). One way to help is to do like they did last week; the offense held the ball for all of 22 min's.

I'm basing this on that Chicago game this year and their tendencies last year. I think we had either the most penalties against or the most penalty yards against last year. Also, I think the chicago game is a fair one to base it off of because we were facing Julius Peppers on the edge, like we'll be facing Orakpo against you guys.

Over the last two weeks, Packers have given up more pass yds than the Skins have and about the same rushing which was before losing their #3 tackler.

As I mentioned before, a lot of those rushing yards came from the QBs. Torrain's not gonna have a field day, but McNabb may bust a few 1st down runs on us.

Rodgers 5 INT's/McNabb 2 - and Washington has one more forced fumble than GB; in a close game, turnovers can be huge.

A couple of those interceptions, at least, appeared to be miscommunication between he and Jennings. I don't know what's going on there, but I sure hope they got it worked out. But yes, I do suspect turnovers are going to be a huge difference-maker in this game. Could be what defines the game (maybe not the number, but just how costly they are).

Should be an interesting game to say the least. I see Rodgers getting sacked (he is much better protected this year but has still gone down 5 times) a couple of times and tossing an INT.

Yeah, its nice that we've been able to start the same players on the O-line each week, and we have a workable backup ready at each position in the event someone goes down. Last season we had Allen Barbre sucking on the right side, Clifton hurt on the left which shifted Colledge over to LT and then shifted Spitz (I think it was him, maybe Wells) from Center to LG and finally bringing in Wells to play C. Once we got Tauscher and Clifton back and discovered 4th round pick T.J. Lang could hold his own at Tackle, our line really started coming together. Now we've got Bulaga as well, so we hopefully we never have to play musical chairs again.

[Slacky McSlackAss]

PP, you're definitely one of the more level headed opposing fans we have over here. That was a great analysis of each of the matchups, it's going to be a close game for sure but if the Redskins can establish the running game early then I like our chances to win.

[SirClintonPortis]

Anthony Armstrong will be heard loud and clear tommorow.

[Oldskool]

matchups:

Redskins WRs v. Packers secondary

advantage: Green Bay

I don't expect the Skins WR corps to have an advantage against many teams secondaries. Packers CB's are some of the best.

Redskins TEs v. Packers MLBs

Advantage: Redskins

Agree with you here, especially with the injuries that the Packers have.

Redskins O-line v. Packers D-line and OLBs

Advantage: Green Bay

Agree but not to the extent that you believe.

Redskins RBs v. Packers front 7

Advantage: not sure

This would be a pass in my book. Have no way of knowing how either side will react.

Packers WRs v. Redskins secondary

Advantage: Packers

This is a push. You have Jennings who will be doubled all day. Then you have Driver, who isn't nearly as dangerous as he used to be and Jones/Nelson who are average.

Packers TEs v. Redskins LBs

Advantage: Packers

Jermichael Finley is uncoverable. don't really know what else to say here.

Skins shut down Witten, who is better than Finley and a bigger part of the offense. Finley will need to stay back and help in pass protection with the Packers Tackles less than steady.

Packers O-line v. Redskins D-line and OLBs

Advantage: mixed results

Agreed.

Packers RBs v. Redskins front 7

Advantage: Redskins

Agreed. Packers will not run the ball much and when they do have a RB set, expect a dump off pass or him to be there on pass protection.

And finally... who wants to take pity on a poor displaced Packers fan and take him to the game? I can bring beer.

If you're in SoCal tomorrow morning, send me a PM.

[PokerPacker]

This is a push. You have Jennings who will be doubled all day. Then you have Driver, who isn't nearly as dangerous as he used to be and Jones/Nelson who are average.

Just gonna have to agree to disagree on Jones/Nelson

Skins shut down Witten, who is better than Finley and a bigger part of the offense. Finley will need to stay back and help in pass protection with the Packers Tackles less than steady.

Couple things here. First, **** Dallas and **** Witten. Second, the fact that you guys are gonna have to focus in on Jennings and Driver only makes Finley that much more dangerous. With Dallas, you had Austin and then who? Roy Williams? Third, Rodgers prefers having the TEs out to receive passes when dealing with the blitz. Last season when the O-line was doing poorly and the coaches were bringing in the TEs on pass protection, Rodgers told them he'd rather have more targets and punish them for sending the blitz.

If you're in SoCal tomorrow morning, send me a PM.

D:

[The Brave Little Toaster Oven]

Hey you damn cheesehead, get off our boards with your words and stuff! we dont take kindly to your kind around here!

[Oldskool]

Couple things here. First, **** Dallas and **** Witten. Second, the fact that you guys are gonna have to focus in on Jennings and Driver only makes Finley that much more dangerous. With Dallas, you had Austin and then who? Roy Williams? Third, Rodgers prefers having the TEs out to receive passes when dealing with the blitz. Last season when the O-line was doing poorly and the coaches were bringing in the TEs on pass protection, Rodgers told them he'd rather have more targets and punish them for sending the blitz.

Agree with you on the **** Dallas part.

In the Dallas game they had Austin and Bryant to worry about along side Williams and Witten. You also have to remember that the Skins had to worry about Dallas running the ball, something GB simply isn't able to do or willing to do. Skins will be in nickle in places where they simply could not during the Dallas game because Dallas had a rushing threat and GB doesn't.

Also Dallas OL > GB's OL

As I said Finley will have to stay back and help pass protect. Bulaga and a gimpy Clifton is a recipe for sacks by speed rushers. Packers are 4-7 when Rodgers gets sacked 3+ times. We all know that Aaron wants to basically run a spread offense but that's not going to happen.

[TheShredder]

Dude, your write up was well aimed and intended to be impartial, obviously. However, you were not impartial on all accounts. You were definitely tainted on multiple evaluations.

The Packers that played the hapless Eagles in week 1 were lead by a QB who played terrible. Your running game was your most productive and was less than the Skins put up against the same opponent in the same stadium. Packers lost the turnover battle and squeaked out a win against a poor Eagles team while being at full strength.

The next week the Packers padded all their stats with a whooping of the worst team in football at home. I would add that Clay Mathews got 3 of his sacks in this one and the team only had 91 total rushing yards.

Week 3 the Packers lost to an overrated and vulnerable Bears team. Packers rushed for a grand total of 63 yards. Rogers was forced to dink and dunk all day and didn't have a pass over 28 yards and threw another interception. Clay Mathews had 3 tackles and NO sacks and was handled by the Bears.

Week 4 Packers almost lost to the Lions, at home. Next year the Lions won't throw you this game. Still, only 92 rushing yards and Rogers threw the ball up for grabs all day and had 2 interceptions. Mathews had 1 sack and was handled by the Lions.

Now, the Redskins have beaten the Cowboys, outplayed the Texans, didn't show up on the road against the Lams, and beat up and outplayed the Eagles in another rivalry huge game matchup in Philly.

AAAAAAAnd.... the Packers have a very beat up Defense. All year long the Packers have had a healthier Defense and given up a lot a lot of points and over 118 yards rushing per game. Everybody knows what the Packers are going to do. Watch what happens when you come up against a good team on the wrong day...See ya 1 PM.

[SirClintonPortis]

Anthony Armstrong will be heard loud and clear tommorow.

I love it when I'm right.

[Ingtar]

I love it when I'm right.

He played very well. I was very happy for him.

[DarrellsMyHero28]

PokerPacker's a good man.

I feel for you right now dude, but I'm still cracking the **** up right now

[Old Dominion Monarch 06]

kick rocks cheeseheads. let's go skins!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! laron ****ing landry!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! **** me!!!!!!!!!! i'm drunk as ****!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[PokerPacker]

bump...

edit: seems its already been bumped.

[Pedro]

Only beat half your first team, you'll be fine

[boysetsfire]

bump...

edit: seems its already been bumped.

Dude atleast the Caps crushed last night. :cool:

[PokerPacker]

So how do you guys think my pre-game analysis stacked up?

[PokerPacker]

Only beat half your first team, you'll be fine

list of players out:

• RT Tauscher
  
• TE Finley
  
• TE Lee
  
• *RB Grant
  
• RB Starks
  
• FB Johnson
  
• CB Shields
  
• CB Harris
  
• *MLB Barnett
  
• *MLB Chillar
  
• *SS Burnett
  
• SS Bigby
  
• OLB Matthews
  
• DE/NT Pickett
  
• *DE Harrell
  

* (possibly) out for season.

[CommandB11]

list of players out:

• RT Tauscher
  
• TE Finley
  
• TE Lee
  
• *RB Grant
  
• RB Starks
  
• FB Johnson
  
• CB Shields
  
• CB Harris
  
• *MLB Barnett
  
• *MLB Chillar
  
• *SS Burnett
  
• SS Bigby
  
• OLB Matthews
  
• DE/NT Pickett
  
• *DE Harrell
  

* (possibly) out for season.

good luck the rest of the season. what is the injury to clay matthews?