What makes everyone so sure we take QB early in draft???

[honejc]

everyone thinks that we are going QB, because everyone knows that if Campbell fails... colt doesnt even stand a chance.

hopefully shanny knows whats best in the time to come.

[The Robert Griffin Experience]

The fact is, "solid starter at LT" and "star at QB" is a better combination than "stud at LT and solid starter at QB". The franchise LT is only ONE part of an overall unit, and one that doesn't even touch the ball at that. The franchise QB makes plays for the entire team, including the running game (by making plays downfield, thus negating stack defense). Furthermore, the franchise QB can make the entire line look better - while a franchise line can potentially make a QB look better, you need ALL 5 members of the unit to be great to do that - not just the great LT. Even though the LT protects the (right handed) QB's blindside, that does not mean much if the guard or center is getting blown up the middle, or if the RT gets beat. Our line will be better next year, but not a franchise unit (unless we got something like Okung/Pouncey).

And as Tris said, 2nd round QBs have a worse track record than 2nd round LTs, and I think there will be a significant run on QBs at the back end of the 1st (Peyton's not getting any younger, neither is Brady, the Vikings may need to draft a QB, and McCoy is not making it past our pick if they don't take Bradford/Clausen #1). In addition, Okung may well be off the board at #2, and while I like Bulaga, he's not worth the #4 unless you are dead-set on taking a LT with the first pick.

[MustangSteve]

I agree as well, I think Jason will have 1 more shot to prove he can be an elite QB. I also believe he will have a pretty good O-line and all the weapons he needs to work with this season. His excuses won't fly this year, either he gets it done or he hit's the road!

[Oldskool]

What team with a franchise QB is not winning?

Eli Manning and Trent Dilfer would like to have a word with you about this.

Joe Thomas is arguably the best LT in the league, and his team sucks because of terrible QB play.

I think a few guys besides Marcus McNeill, Ryan Clady, and Jake Long may have to disagree with you.

Unless you can name the team with a franchise QB that is losing, both statements are true. And of course this is not mutually exclusive. But the single biggest need we have is to solve the QB issue. There is no reason to delay solving this issue, especially when the solutions to our other problems can be found outside the first round.

Look, at the end of the day, I am going to be excited by our first pick which is either going to be a LT or a QB. If its LT, while I will be disappointed that there was no QB worth taking and we are going to be at the mercy of the draft next year, we will have a stud LT...who isn't going to be excited by that. And of course I am going to be excited if its a QB, especially when he is paired with a new tackle from the 2nd round.

As stated many times before, franchise LT's and QB's do not grow on trees. Both are in position of need on this team, the only difference is that the team currently has a QB but doesn't have a LT.

But say we had the 1st pick of the draft and we can't trade out of it, do you really think Shanahan would take Okung over Bradford or Clausen? No chance in hell.

You don't know Shanahan's draft record do you? In 14 years as a HC, he has selected a QB ONCE higher than the 3rd round and that was Cutler. Cutler obviously was a reach on his part and a non-need considering that Plummer lead the Broncos to a 13-3 record the year previous. Besides that obvious gaff, Shanahan has been very consistent with his drafting of QB's.

Also when longtime Bronco LT Matt Lepsis retired, Shanahan did not hesitate for a second to use the #14 pick that offseason on Ryan Clady.

[darrelgreenie]

What team with a franchise QB is not winning?

I'll answer your question with this question.

Which 'franchise' QB plays behind a bad OL?

[Oldskool]

I'll answer your question with this question.

Which 'franchise' QB plays behind a bad OL?

From an article last year that proves my point even more. How soon the haters forget two important things:

1. Shanahan has had success with non-elite QB's in the past such as Plummer and Griese.

2. Campbell had put up career numbers last year behind the worst OL that I can remember on any team.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/football/nfl/2009-03-29-sw-tackles-cover_N.htm

Quarterbacks might be the cornerstones of franchises. Running backs provide punch. Wide receivers make flashy plays.

Yet the game's guts remain rooted in line play. No quarterback succeeds without protection. No running back survives long without holes to hit. No receiver catches a pass if the quarterback doesn't have the time to throw it.

Nuts and bolts. That's the key to the revitalization of teams now.

Look at the Atlanta Falcons last year. Sure, No. 3 overall pick Matt Ryan gave them stability at quarterback, and free agent arrival Michael Turner gained 1,699 rushing yards. But they worked behind five guys who weigh nearly 1,600 pounds combined, including another first-round selection, left tackle Sam Baker.

Look at the Carolina Panthers and their turnaround, thanks to two 2008 No. 1 picks: running back Jonathan Stewart and right tackle Jeff Otah. Carolina's re-energized ground game lifted the Panthers from a 7-9 record to 12-4 and an NFC South championship. The Panthers were third in the league in rushing.

Look at the Ravens, who ranked fourth. They added Anderson to their O-line mix after losing Ogden, took care of rookie passer Joe Flacco, ran the ball solidly with a troika of backs and fell one win shy of reaching the Super Bowl.

"It starts up front," says Tennessee Titans coach Jeff Fisher, whose team went 13-3 to win the AFC South and ranked seventh in the league in rushing. "If you're going to build a team, one would assume you're going to start up front. You've got to protect the quarterback. You run the football to keep your defense off the field."

[Hunter_R]

I'll answer your question with this question.

Which 'franchise' QB plays behind a bad OL?

Rodgers, Roethlesberger.

Warner played behind a bad oline in Arizona. How did the Patriots oline look when Cassel was in?

On another note, Elis is not comparable to Trent Dilfer. The only thing they have in common is that they're both quarterbacks who won a superbowl.

Let's look at the Giants' offensive line, which is generally regarded as extremely good.

Kareem McKenzie: 3rd

David Diehl: 5th

Chris Snee: 2nd

Shaun O'Hara: Undrafted

Rich Seubert: Undrafted

Also:

The Colts have 3 undrafted, a 4th, and a 6th for their o-line.

The Saints have a 1st, 2nd, 4th, and 2 5th rounders on their line.

The Pats have a 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 5th, and undrafted. Interestingly, the 1st and 2nd weren't on the SB teams.

Conversly, the Jets have, I believe, 4 1st rounders on their line, and what do they have to show for it?

Then you could talk about the Steelers, but I don't particularly want a line like that.

[mistertim]

Considering how many teams could use a new qb, I'm going with 0.0000001%.

What are the odds of the Skins grabbing them in the second round? Considering where the Rams pick...

Ok, I have to admit. That was pretty damn funny.

[Going Commando]

I don't necessarily agree. They said during his year off he studied a lot of different coaches. Belechik, Myers (FL), and the Steelers 3-4. Interesting to see we are changing our defense. Shanahan seems to be a coach capable of evolving.

All the great ones are and Shanahan is a great coach. He's probably the great offensive mind of our generation and Schefter said he is to offense what Belichick is to defense. We'll have a top 5 offense in 3 or 4 years.

[The Robert Griffin Experience]

1. Shanahan has had success with non-elite QB's in the past such as Plummer and Griese.

Who both played on far better teams than us. But I suppose that we have to wait until we have a team that any QB can win with before we think about addressing the position, right? I think both QBs are a step above Campbell in any case.

2. Campbell had put up career numbers last year behind the worst OL that I can remember on any team.

We've already been through this. He put up great yardage numbers against pathetic pass defenses (just look at all the teams he had his best numbers against), in a system designed to make QBs look better than they actually are (Campbell had the most passes of any QB in football behind the LOS). In addition, one stat that nobody has brought up is that Campbell got more OUT of short passes than nearly every QB in the NFL. Case in point:

Passes thrown from behind the line to 10 yards YPA:

Peyton Manning:

Behind the LOS: 5.27

From 1-10 yards: 6.39

Drew Brees

5.57

5.87

Aaron Rodgers:

4.93

6.98

Eli Manning:

5.89

6.18

Donovan McNabb

5.60

5.67

Tony Romo sits to pee:

5.12

6.63

Jason Campbell:

6.07

6.72

Basically, Campbell has inflated his YPA and thus his overall production by the fact that the screens and short passes were more productive than those of many premier quarterbacks in the NFL. His production begins to dip once he throws passes past 11 yards.

Even Alex Smith, who is a similar QB to Campbell production-wise, posts better stats past 11 yards than Campbell - the main difference is that his WRs aren't doing more on screens, draws and slants. Campbell is productive on passes that are the MOST dependent on the ability of others, as well as the system, and less productive on passes that are indicative of QB ability.

(Also, this evidence goes a long way of acquitting the ability of our skill position players - they were consistently able to gain extra yardage even though our gameplan revolved around short passes and dink and dunk play - Campbell's improved YPA is a reflection of improved performance in the short game, rather than improved deep passing. Case in point once again: Campbell scored 5.55 and 5.68 on short passes, 9.17 and 10.47 on passes from 11-30 yards.)

That article forgets that Baker missed much of the season, and does not take into account that the Panthers and Titans regressed due to Delhomme and Collins' poor QB play (behind that same line and run game) and finished strong because of improved QB play from young backups.

Also, Eli Manning is a franchise QB. He was one of the main drivers behind their SB run; while his numbers weren't overwhelming, he was consistently productive in the clutch, which is a commonality to nearly all franchise QBs (even a percieved choker like Peyton Manning performs better in the clutch).

Trust me, I can have the Campbell debate all day and night, and am taking on all comers. The evidence points to a mediocre QB. A detailed analysis of the numbers points to a mediocre QB. Even what we see with the eyes points to a mediocre QB. And the track record for mediocre QBs becoming great under improved conditions is incredibly limited. Look at a player like Kyle Orton - he went from throwing to Devin Hester and having Chris Williams blocking for him to throwing to Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal and having Ryan Clady block for him. It did not help him much (though this is mitigated by the fact that Josh McDaniels is a JOKE and is on his way to being yet another failed Belichick assistant. If not for Mike Nolan's defense, that team would have gone 4-12 or worse).

[mistertim]

(Also, this evidence goes a long way of acquitting the ability of our skill position players - they were consistently able to gain extra yardage even though our gameplan revolved around short passes and dink and dunk play - Campbell's improved YPA is a reflection of improved performance in the short game, rather than improved deep passing. Case in point once again: Campbell scored 5.55 and 5.68 on short passes, 9.17 and 10.47 on passes from 11-30 yards.)

So how does the fact that none of our pass catchers were in the top 50 in the NFL in YAC equate with this?

EDIT: Actually Santana was #46 if I remember correctly.

[Going Commando]

I think a few guys besides Marcus McNeill, Ryan Clady, and Jake Long may have to disagree with you.

Thomas is better than all of them. Or at least he had a better year last year than they did. I wouldn't put McNeill in that group though but Long and Clady belong. However, I think the Joe Thomas metaphor is illuminative because it shows having a top left tackle won't be enough to fix our protection problems. Now they were inconsistent at Center last year but they stand to get a lot better soon because Mack is such a promising prospect. But the Browns have All-pros on their left side and still have some protection problems coming from the right. You need 5 good players starting on your line, you just can't get around that. That's why I expect us to commit significant resources to building the line sooner rather than later.

However, it also shows that a ****ty QB like Quinn will still fail even when his protection is solid. Also a good QB will fail when his protection is poor just like Peyton Manning did in the second half of the Super bowl. You need a good QB AND an excellent line to field a champion caliber team.

Also when longtime Bronco LT Matt Lepsis retired, Shanahan did not hesitate for a second to use the #14 pick that offseason on Ryan Clady.

I think Clady was actually a 12th pick because I think I remember some sort of oddity where the Broncos have had the 11th or 12th pick almost every year for the past four or five years. That's a good point about Clady. Shanahan clearly understands the importance of stability at the LT position and its not something he's going to try and get cute with. It doesn't mean that he'll draft a LT before a QB though.

It's not that hard to figure out what we'll do if you know the answers to a few contingent questions:

1.) Does Shanahan view Sam Bradford as a franchise caliber QB?

2.) Does Shanahan view Jimmy Clausen as one?

3.) Will we be in position to draft either at 4?

4.) Does Shanahan think he can get as much out of a later round QB such as Snead or McCoy as he could from the first two?

The problem is, probably nobody outside the organization knows the answers to 1, 2, or 4 and nobody at all knows the answer to 3. If the answer is yes to the first three questions, then it's a safe bet we'll draft one of them. If it's no, or if the answer to 4 is year, then we'll go with a tackle or defender at 4.

It's a boring answer but it's the only logical one. We won't know our intentions at 4 until we see how the draft unfolds and we actually make the pick.

[The Robert Griffin Experience]

So how does the fact that none of our pass catchers were in the top 50 in the NFL in YAC equate with this?

Simply because we had more of them? Davis, Kelly, and Thomas (who have, to varying degrees, been very productive in gaining YAC) weren't factors last year. Cartwright got more playing time this year. We spread the ball out far more evenly than we did in 2008.

[The Tris]

It's not that hard to figure out what we'll do if you know the answers to a few contingent questions:

1.) Does Shanahan view Sam Bradford as a franchise caliber QB?

2.) Does Shanahan view Jimmy Clausen as one?

3.) Will we be in position to draft either at 4?

4.) Does Shanahan think he can get as much out of a later round QB such as Snead or McCoy as he could from the first two?

The problem is, probably nobody outside the organization knows the answers to 1, 2, or 4 and nobody at all knows the answer to 3. If the answer is yes to the first three questions, then it's a safe bet we'll draft one of them. If it's no, or if the answer to 4 is year, then we'll go with a tackle or defender at 4.

It's a boring answer but it's the only logical one. We won't know our intentions at 4 until we see how the draft unfolds and we actually make the pick.

Yeah, this is really what it boils down to. It doesn't matter what the issues with the line are, it doesn't matter that Campbell is still on the roster, it doesn't matter what the coaches draft history is, the only thing that matters is Shanny's evaluation of them as a prospect.

If you don't have a franchise QB and one is available, you take him. No waiting on next year, no hoping for a slightly inferior prospect to be available.

[Hunter_R]

Yeah, this is really what it boils down to. It doesn't matter what the issues with the line are, it doesn't matter that Campbell is still on the roster, it doesn't matter what the coaches draft history is, the only thing that matters is Shanny's evaluation of them as a prospect.

If you don't have a franchise QB and one is available, you take him. No waiting on next year, no hoping for a slightly inferior prospect to be available.

I forgot about the Shanahan draft history part. It doesn't take into account the years with Elway. It also fails to mention that Shanny never had a pick in the top 10, so he never really had a shot at the best available quarterbacks.

[The Tris]

I forgot about the Shanahan draft history part. It doesn't take into account the years with Elway. It also fails to mention that Shanny never had a pick in the top 10, so he never really had a shot at the best available quarterbacks.

He's drafted 3 QBs outside of the 7th round. A first, a third, and a fourth. The draft history argument ignores the fact that Shanny simply hasn't drafted that many QBs, and to say that b/c Griese was successful, he leans towards late round QBs is retarded.

When you have good QB play, you get to look elsewhere with your first round picks. So yeah, when you only have 2 losing seasons in 14 years, your picking in the second half of the first round, and you have good QB play, you aren't going to be in the position to draft the best QB prospects each year.

[darrelgreenie]

Rodgers, Roethlesberger.

Warner played behind a bad oline in Arizona. How did the Patriots oline look when Cassel was in?

Even if Rodgers and Rothlisberger play behind bad OLs, which by the way is very debateable because both QBs are notrious for holding the ball and all sacks aren't created equal (i.e. a sack on a 3 step drops is much worse then a sack on a 5 or 7 step drop), but 2 QBs out of the list of 'franchise' QBs doesn't make a majority.

It makes the minority.

Does it makes sense to gear your offense using the concept of the exception rather then the rule?

[fansince62]

Even if Rodgers and Rothlisberger play behind bad OLs, which by the way is very debateable because both QBs are notrious for holding the ball and all sacks aren't created equal (i.e. a sack on a 3 step drops is much worse then a sack on a 5 or 7 step drop), but 2 QBs out of the list of 'franchise' QBs doesn't make a majority.

It makes the minority.

Does it makes sense to gear your offense using the concept of the exception rather then the rule?

you're right! The Skins clearly aren't gearing their offense with the exceptional!!!!

[Hunter_R]

Does it makes sense to gear your offense using the concept of the exception rather then the rule?

That's 4 right there. How many franchise qbs are there right now? The pukes' line has been heavily criticized lately. Romo sits to pee would make 5. Even if you say half the qbs in the league qualify as franchise qbs, "the exception that proves the rule," usually doesn't extend to over 25%.

[redskindan07]

I believe that all coaches, especially new coaches want to pick out their own QB when they join a team.

[mistertim]

Simply because we had more of them? Davis, Kelly, and Thomas (who have, to varying degrees, been very productive in gaining YAC) weren't factors last year. Cartwright got more playing time this year. We spread the ball out far more evenly than we did in 2008.

Try again. Our next highest YAC guy was ARE who was at 80 something in the NFL. So I ask again, how did JC make so many of his yards after the catch with no recievers who even sniffed the top of the pack in YAC?

[Going Commando]

That's 4 right there. How many franchise qbs are there right now? The pukes' line has been heavily criticized lately. Romo sits to pee would make 5. Even if you say half the qbs in the league qualify as franchise qbs, "the exception that proves the rule," usually doesn't extend to over 25%.

I only see that Rodgers and Roethlisberger were mentioned. I don't know where the criticism of the Cowboys line comes from. They are actually solid in their protections and Tony Romo sits to pee got lots of time this year. The criticism is from that one playoff game when Adams went down but any time your LT goes down mid-game, you will struggle with your protections. They actually have a really good young player in Doug Free waiting to take over for Adams as well, so I wouldn't put them in the same boat as us.

No one in the league faced the kind of defensive pressure Campbell did this season. There are all kinds of hidden numbers that demonstrate this. Campbell was tied for second in the league in throw aways, 4th in the league for being hit as he threw, second in passes batted down at the line, and tied for third in sacks. No other QB is as consistently high in those categories. His starting offensive tackles were ranked 75th of 77 and 71st of 77 by the metrics at profootballfocus.com.

Max Starks and Willie Colon actually both had positive aggregate scores and Colon was actually one of the best pass blockers in the league this year by their measure. Rodgers actually had solid protection from Clifton and Tauscher when they played, and even though Allen Barbre and T.J. Lang were bad, neither were graded nearly as poorly as Heyer and Jones coming in at 58 and 53 respectively.

The interior line is a bit of a different story--Green Bay actually had great contribution from Colledge and Sitton suggesting their protection problems were on the edges like ours were. However, they had consistency at the RG spot and we started 5 different players. On the opposite side of the spectrum, Trai Essex and Justin Hartwig were terrible for the Steelers, so they had protection problems from the interior. So combine the interior line problems the Steelers had with the problems on the edge the Packers faced, and you've got what we had last season.

[Hunter_R]

No one in the league faced the kind of defensive pressure Campbell did this season.

The question wasn't "what franchise qbs play behind an oline worse than the skins," it was, "what franchise qbs play behind a bad oline?"

In that regard, I suppose I can't count Warner anymore, as he's gone.

Though, I'm not even sure what the argument about the o-line is supposed to prove. The Skins won't have the same o-line as last season, and we've seen Campbell play with an o-line that made Campbell an "mvp candidate."

[THE HAMMER'IN HOG]

The question wasn't "what franchise qbs play behind an oline worse than the skins," it was, "what franchise qbs play behind a bad oline?"

In that regard, I suppose I can't count Warner anymore, as he's gone.

Though, I'm not even sure what the argument about the o-line is supposed to prove. The Skins won't have the same o-line as last season, and we've seen Campbell play with an o-line that made Campbell an "mvp candidate."

The O-line is being made out to be far worse than it actually was to defend JC plain and simple, yes we had a lot of injuries but I have seen far worse lines in my time, JC's inability to play made the O-line look much worse than it actually was. The CDT refuses to acknowledge how bad the Cardinals O-line was their SB year, or the Steelers O-line that beat them, they excuse it by saying these pro bowl future HOF QB's hold the ball to long, yet that can no how ever be the case when it comes to JC. They don't want to acknowledge the lack of any run game from the Saints who are now reigning champs, nor the numbers, and playoff appearance by Green Bay and Aaron Rogers. Plenty of successful QB's put up great numbers with lousy O-lines, What nobody wants to acknowledge is the fact that JC was this putrid 3 seasons ago when our O-line was very good, but no one would no that until Collins stepped in and rescued the season from JC, and that is something the CDT cannot over come with all their little excuses!

[The Robert Griffin Experience]

Try again. Our next highest YAC guy was ARE who was at 80 something in the NFL. So I ask again, how did JC make so many of his yards after the catch with no recievers who even sniffed the top of the pack in YAC?

*sigh*

That is irrelevant, we were still 6th as a team in yards after catch, with Campbell being the only quarterback in football to have more than half of his yardage come after the catch.

To put this in perspective, the 5 teams that had more YAC yardage than us had YAC yardage as 44% (Houston), 48% (Dallas), 46% (New England), 45%, 46.5% (Green Bay) and and 45% (New Orleans).

We had 53% of our passing yardage come after the catch.

You try again.

I do not question that the line did not have an enormous negative effect on Campbell's production, however, I think this is countered by the enormous positive effect that the weak defensive schedule Campbell played, and the quality of our skill position players, as well as a gameplan that effectively countered the lack of ability of our offensive line (by relying heavily on screens and draws and short passes).

If nothing else, I think it is untrue that Campbell made any significant improvement last year from 2008, at least not the one the numbers suggest.