SkinsTribeVA Posted August 2, 2009 Share Posted August 2, 2009 In another Orakpo thread, Staylorfan021 asked about rookie DE/LB’s success sack-wise in the past to help us “channel our expectations.” Well I’m on vacation at the beach in the Outer Banks and it’s storming, so I decided to do a sack-analysis for rookie DE/LB’s since 2002 and try to apply my analysis to what we can/should expect from Orakpo in his rookie season. In the last two seasons, no rookie has had more than 6 sacks (it’s probably too early to judge those guys anyway). The following have had at least 8 sacks in their rookie season since 02. Listed by: rookie sacks (rookie year) total sacks since. Mark Anderson 12 (06) 18 Kamerion Wimbley 11 (06) 20 Elvis Dumervil 8.5 (06) 26 Tamba Hali 8 (06) 18.5 Shawne Merriman 10 (05) 39.5 DeMarcus Ware 8 (05) 53.5 Jared Allen 9 (04) 57.5 Terrell Suggs 12 (03) 53 Dwight Freeney 12 (02) 70.5 Julius Peppers 12 (02) 70.5 Carlos Hall 8 (02) 14.5 That’s not a mistake with Freeney/Peppers having the same stats. From 02-05, only one player with at least 8 sacks in rookie season has been a bust (Carlos Hall), everyone else has seen significant success. The 06 class, on the other hand, hasn’t done too well since rookie season other than Dumervil, but it could still be too early to judge. Here are some players that weren’t so successful sacks-wise their rookie season but have seen significant success since: LaMarr Woodley 4 (07) 15.5 Mario Williams 4.5 (06) 30.5 Mathias Kiwanuka 4 (06) 16.5 Trent Cole 5 (05) 34.5 Will Smith 7.5 (04) 36.5 Shaun Phillips 4 (04) 38.5 Robert Mathis 3.5 (03) 53.5 Charles Grant 7 (02) 41.5 Here’s what I take away from all this: If a rookie can deliver 8 sacks, he may experience a dropoff to around 3-5 over the next couple seasons (something I noticed while looking through all this) but his chances for future success are very high. But, obviously, just because a rookie doesn’t deliver big his rookie season does not mean he will not be successful. Below I’ve condensed the above two lists into all the players who are listed as LB’s or OLB’s. This time we’re looking at tackles: rookie tackles (rookie year) total tackles since. Lamarr Woodley 14 (07) 74 Kamerion Wimbley 62 (06) 179 Shawne Merriman 57 (05) 189 DeMarcus Ware 58 (05) 297 Shaun Phillips 26 (04) 267 Terrell Suggs 27 (03) 368 Most of the players listed as DE’s from the first two lists had tackles in the 20-30 range their rookie seasons. Lamarr Woodley and Shaun Phillips are the only players on that list who were on the second sack list (not as successful their rookie seasons). The rest of the guys were successful in both tackles and sacks their rookie seasons and have had continued success. Terrell Suggs is the outlier (12 sacks but only 27 tackles as a rookie), but that is most likely because he plays the 3-4 DE spot fairly often. Final analysis concerning Orakpo: If he puts himself in the 8+ sack range and 55+ tackle range, then we can expect continued and most likely improved future success (with the possibility of a slight falloff in years two or three). If he falls in the 3+ sack and 25+ tackle range, then we shouldn’t get down on him yet and should hope for a breakout season. Anything less than that is worrysome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rhyno Posted August 2, 2009 Share Posted August 2, 2009 Nice breakdown for the most part. The only issue I see is that, assuming Orakpo plays LB some, tackles will be a difficult stat to use as a measuring stick as one would expect he should have significantly higher tackles that a pure de. Additionally, depending on how he is used, you coud make a case or either more or less sacks due to his positioning. edit: I skipped over the de/lb combo but still, most of the players abover are 3-4 LBs with slightly different assignments most of the time. Still a great breakdown though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach Williams Posted August 2, 2009 Share Posted August 2, 2009 He'll have 4 sacks...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkinsTribeVA Posted August 2, 2009 Author Share Posted August 2, 2009 Nice breakdown for the most part. The only issue I see is that, assuming Orakpo plays LB some, tackles will be a difficult stat to use as a measuring stick as one would expect he should have significantly higher tackles that a pure de. Additionally, depending on how he is used, you coud make a case or either more or less sacks due to his positioning. Yea with that third list I was trying to compare him to other players who are used as pass-rushing LB's or are 3-4 LB's, but that's definitely the toughest part of the whole analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
live4burgandyandgold Posted August 2, 2009 Share Posted August 2, 2009 Barring a catastrophe im pretty sure orakpo is gunna be a stud. Even as a rookie im pretty sure is going to be an immediate strength of this team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skinfan2k Posted August 2, 2009 Share Posted August 2, 2009 He'll have 4 sacks...... based on what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkinsTribeVA Posted August 2, 2009 Author Share Posted August 2, 2009 He'll have 4 sacks...... It really all totally depends on where they play him more. If he ends up being a 1st/2nd down LB and 3rd down DE (like a lot of people are saying), I'd agree with 4 sacks and hopefully pushing 70 tackles. If they play him more at DE than LB, I could see him pushing 10 sacks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HTTRedskins96 Posted August 2, 2009 Share Posted August 2, 2009 He'll have 4 sacks...... Dont hate on my boy Rak. :saber: Give him at least 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leonard Washington Posted August 2, 2009 Share Posted August 2, 2009 8 sacks for ANY reskin would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
[[ghost]] Posted August 2, 2009 Share Posted August 2, 2009 He'll have 4 sacks...... ...A GAME! MuhuhuHAHAHAHA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HTTRedskins96 Posted August 2, 2009 Share Posted August 2, 2009 ];6595426']...A GAME!MuhuhuHAHAHAHA! I like how you think my Redskin brutha from anutha mutha. :evilg: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chachie Posted August 2, 2009 Share Posted August 2, 2009 We should expect 15 sacks. Hey- We're Redskin fans. :cool: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laron Burgundy Posted August 2, 2009 Share Posted August 2, 2009 It really all totally depends on where they play him more. If he ends up being a 1st/2nd down LB and 3rd down DE (like a lot of people are saying), I'd agree with 4 sacks and hopefully pushing 70 tackles. If they play him more at DE than LB, I could see him pushing 10 sacks. People don't understand just how much we blitz our linebackers. With that arrangement I would still expect him to rush the passer on 50% of the plays or better. Think of Washington's or Arrington's most successful years. If our d line plays as well as we think they will he'll put up at least 6 sacks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashburn Dave Posted August 2, 2009 Share Posted August 2, 2009 Eight sacks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tml6157 Posted August 2, 2009 Share Posted August 2, 2009 He is gonna be a stud. Watching him in training camp he just looks so fluid at LB and DE its kinda scary how natural he makes it look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkinsNoles21 Posted August 2, 2009 Share Posted August 2, 2009 he has so much talent around him ... he is definitely set up to succeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kramdizzle Posted August 3, 2009 Share Posted August 3, 2009 We should expect 15 sacks. Hey- We're Redskin fans. :cool: that would be typical behavior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StillUnknown Posted August 3, 2009 Share Posted August 3, 2009 i think somewhere in the 8-10 range is fair, especially since he'll have the privilege of playing with Big Al who will consume double & sometimes triple teams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skins2victory Posted August 3, 2009 Share Posted August 3, 2009 He is gonna be a stud. Watching him in training camp he just looks so fluid at LB and DE its kinda scary how natural he makes it look I could tell he was going to be a stud on draft day when he put on that yellow skins hat and was smiling ear to ear. I new we picked the right guy, he should be making plays for us for years to come. Im glade to hear he is making the transition so smoothly, so soon. He might be an impact right away!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoeKnowsBest Posted August 3, 2009 Share Posted August 3, 2009 Alot of those guys played in a 3-4 though. We have a 4-3 cover 2 style of defense. I'm worried about them trying to put too much on him at once. It's a large playbook just for one position let alone 2. That's alot to ask a rookie to learn and remember all at once in one month. Linebacker is 10x more difficult to learn than DE. I know because I played it. You have to be exactly where you are supposed to be, and make sure you don't get blocked other wise it could become a blown play and a big one for the offense. Especially when you're in pass coverage. Asking a rookie DE to learn 2 positions at once (1 is one he's never played before) at a brand new level (Pro) is a bit too much of a burden for anybody. Plus according to Orakpo's interviews in camp so far, it sounds like it's a bit too much of a challenge for him. So that seriously concernes me. I would just take it one thing at a time and have him learn the playbook at his natrual position by playing DE and getting after the Quarterback.. then once he's comfortable there, start giving him some plays to learn and do at OLB and ease him comfortably into that too, until he's a main impact player/pro-bowler. Too much at one time can lead to huge disapointment/failures which nobody wants to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justsomeguy Posted August 3, 2009 Share Posted August 3, 2009 I have all the faith in the world in Orakpo no matter what spot he plays. I predict 6-7 sacks and 35-45 tackles, 6 for loss, and 2 forced fumbles. Though I hope they are grooming him to be Carters replacement. Rak at RDE and Jarmon at LDE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HTTRedskins96 Posted August 3, 2009 Share Posted August 3, 2009 Though I hope they are grooming him to be Carters replacement. Rak at RDE and Jarmon at LDE. I agree. I think that will happen soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scruffylookin Posted August 3, 2009 Share Posted August 3, 2009 I was excited and thrilled that the Skins finally drafted an elite pass rushing talent. And based on reports coming from camp so far, he's been everything we all could have hoped for and dreamed about. I will still try and temper my expectations and say that he will likely be in the 4 to 6 range as a rookie, but I'd be lying if I didn't say that I'm hoping he's as good as everyone is saying he is right now and he ends up with 10-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailskinz1991 Posted August 3, 2009 Share Posted August 3, 2009 if they are able to keep a nice rotation of Orakpo, Carter, Wynn, Daniels going, I think they will all have nice years. Griffin and Haynesworth in the middle is ridiculous...I see teams trying to run the ball against us - having a lot of problems. No where to run to...no where to hide..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skin'Em84 Posted August 3, 2009 Share Posted August 3, 2009 I expect him to get as many sacks as stitches on his Jersey.. 1,234. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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