So how bad were DT and MK compared to their Class?

[Veretax]

There has been a lot of talk about how Devin Thomas/Malcolm Kelly were busts last year, and while some of the reasoning I agree with. (why draft davis and kelly when DL and OL could have been taken). However, I was researching the history of last year's picks. In an effort to prove my hypothesis, that while the Bears got Cutler over us and other teams, that there is no guarantee they will find the WRs to catch the ball now that their 1st Round picks are gone and I found something Startling. Very few if Any of the WRs drafted contributed significantly to their teams. Here are the numbers:

Of all the guys who were picked last year, how many saw significant playing time and stats?

Second Round

Donnie Avery (Rams) 15 Games Rec: 53 Yds: 674 TD: 3(1)

Devin Thomas* (Skins) 16 Games Rec: 15 Yds: 120 TD: 0(1)

Jordy Nelson (Packers) 16 Games Rec: 33 Yds: 366 TD: 2

James Hardy* (Bills) 14 Games Rec: 9 Yds: 87 TD: 2

Eddie Royal (Broncos) 15 Games Rec: 91 Yds: 980 Td: 5 (2 fumbles, 1 lost)

Jerome Simpson (Bengals) 6 Games Rec: 1 Yds: 2

DeSean Jackson* (Eagles) 16 Games Rec: 62 Yds: 912 Td: 2(1) (4 fumbles 2 lost)

Malcolm Kelly* (Skins) 5 Games Rec: 3 Yds: 18

Limas Sweed* (Steelers) 11 Games Rec: 6 Yds: 64 (2 fumbles 1 lost)

Dexter Jackson (Bucs) 7 Games Rec: 0 Yds: 0, TD; 0 (1 Fumble)

3rd Round

Earl Bennet (Bears) 10 Games Rec: 0 Yds: 0 TD: 0

Early Doucet (Cards) 10 Games Rec: 0 Yds: 0 TD: 0

Harry Douglas (Falcons) 16 Games Rec: 23 Yds: 320 TD:1 (1) (1 fumble 1 lost)

Mario Manningham (NY Giants) 7 Games RecL 4 Yds: 26 TD: 0

Andre Caldwell (Bengal) 7 Games Rec: 11 Yds: 78 TD: 0

* Many teams had these players ranked with 1st Round Grades before the draft

Outside of the 3rd round not a single WR had over 300 Yards in receiving.

Only 3 of the WRs in last year's draft class had 300 or more yards (4 actually if you count Harry Douglas with the Falcons.) Outside of the 3rd Round hardly any of the picks saw playing time, and only a handful had between 100 and 300 yards receiving.

I mean look at that closely:

Only 3 out of 10 players selected at the position in the Second round contributed in a meaningful way to their teams (meaningful meaning 500 or more yards), you can add two more if you lower the standard to 300 Yards and include the 4th Round and only 1 other WR in the 3rd Round saw enough passes thrown their way to amount any statistics.

So looking back at this, I am really interested in seeing how this years class does now that they have another year under their belt, but I think, we need to cut DT and MK some slack. Having production from the WR position from a 1st Year Draft pick clearly was the exception and not the rule last year.

So let's encouage our young Receivers, I'm willing to bet, that their production is most improved today.

Here's the thing the best WRs in this draft will be 1st Rounders, and the bears, have no ammo to move up now probably.

Michael Crabtree

Jeremy Macklain

Percy Harvin (Could fall rumor was on roids or pot at combine)

Kenny Britt

Darious Heyword-Bey

Hakeem Nicks

after that the second round will be very much hit and miss on WRs, bank on it.

(Side note, Jordy nelson, looks like he will be good long term for the packers, and would have been more productive if not for a stacked WR position already in Green Bay.)

[benskins26]

I would die for Nicks! He's gonna be a stud. No way it happens though. I agree with the post though, we need to cut them slack. I think DT could develop into a solid WR. We all knew it was a project when we got him. Unfortunately, as much of a gamer as MK is, I don't think that we'll ever really get to see it. IMO, the FO really blew it on that pick. It seems like they were the only ones who didn't get the memo about his knees.

[Forehead]

I'm glad someone posted this. I mean, Kelly was hurt most of the year. Now whether we should have drafted him in the first place is another discussion.

And let's not forget, Thomas would have 1 more reception, 70 more yards, and a TD had Stephon Heyer not decided to clean out Darnell Dockett in the AZ game.

They should be alright as long as they have their heads on straight. The other receiver I remember folks yelling for was Limas Sweed, and he looked worse than both of them.

I don't think the young guys will be too bad if given time.

[da#1skinsfan]

I would love to see this same chart created for other years with notable receivers (IE Chad Johnson's draft, Steve Smith's draft, TO's draft, etc). Can you bite the bullet and do 1 or 2 of these too?

[TSO]

^^ I'm pretty sure only TO had a good rookie season out of the guys you mentioned. Not 100% though.

This point has been brought up over and over, and it's absolutely mind blowing why there's still so much bashing going on about our young WRs. It's shameful to be honest. We don't give anyone a chance to do anything, and then complain about our FO doing the same. :doh:

It's so weird. It's just constant complaining.

[benskins26]

It's so weird. It's just constant complaining.

But it's ES, it's in our nature, right? Lol

We (myself included) are a bunch of whiners. Dang our passion for this team.

[Recent Vintage]

Don't forget Josh Morgan on the 49ers, 319 yards and 3TDs is pretty good for a rookie WR picked after Durant Brooks in the 6th.

(Go Hokies)

[MattFancy]

I would love to see this same chart created for other years with notable receivers (IE Chad Johnson's draft, Steve Smith's draft, TO's draft, etc). Can you bite the bullet and do 1 or 2 of these too?

I'll just do some of the best WR's now rookie seasons.

Terrell Owens: 16 games, 35 rec, 520 yds, 4 TDs

Randy Moss: 16 games, 69 rec, 1313 yds, 17 TDs

Steve Smith: 15 games, 10 rec, 154 yds, 0 TDs

Chad Ochocinco: 12 games, 28 rec, 329 yds, 1 TD

Andre Johnson: 16 games, 66 rec, 976 yds, 4 TDs

Reggie Wayne: 13 games, 27 rec, 345 yds, 0 TDs

TJ Houshmandzadeh: 12 games, 21 rec, 228 yds, 0 TDs

Larry Fitzgerald: 16 games, 58 rec, 780 yds, 8 TDs

Anquan Boldin: 16 games, 101 rec, 1377 yds, 8 TDs

Calvin Johnson: 15 games, 48 rec, 756 yds, 4 TDs

So as you can tell, besides Moss, Boldin, AJ, and Fitz, most rookie WRs are pretty average right out of the gate. So its not like Thomas and Kelly have 0 chance to succeed because they didn't have 1,000 yard seasons their rookie years. There is still hope!

[Veretax]

I would die for Nicks! He's gonna be a stud. No way it happens though. I agree with the post though, we need to cut them slack. I think DT could develop into a solid WR. We all knew it was a project when we got him. Unfortunately, as much of a gamer as MK is, I don't think that we'll ever really get to see it. IMO, the FO really blew it on that pick. It seems like they were the only ones who didn't get the memo about his knees.

I'm nervous about nicks. Yes he looked awesome in that Car Care Bowl, but, does he do that consistently. I don't get many ACC Games that UNC is in so I honestly don't know if he's consistent or not. However, I do think he's a first round talent, and my point here was not that the Skins should draft a WR, but that the bears have screwed themselves because now they need to fill multiple holes in the 2nd and 4th Round, and outside of the third round last year, not a single WR contributed over 300 Yards receiving. Not a one. Tough spot for the Bears frankly.

I'm glad someone posted this. I mean, Kelly was hurt most of the year. Now whether we should have drafted him in the first place is another discussion.

And let's not forget, Thomas would have 1 more reception, 70 more yards, and a TD had Stephon Heyer not decided to clean out Darnell Dockett in the AZ game.

They should be alright as long as they have their heads on straight. The other receiver I remember folks yelling for was Limas Sweed, and he looked worse than both of them.

I don't think the young guys will be too bad if given time.

Yeah I forgot about that, and Sweed was terrible, now he has to step up or Pittsburgh could regress offensively now that Nate washington is gone. Tough shoes to fill for sure.

Note, i didn't set out to prove that DT or MK are or well be solid WRs, its still way to early to make that judgement. You really need at least 3 Seasons I think to get a handle on these things. I mean two years ago Roy Williams looked like he and Calvin Johnson would tear it up in Detroit, then last year he didn't do well at all.

there aren't a lot of guys outside the first round that I'd look at for WR, and I don't see how we draft anyone to fill that role outside of the first and third round either, we have too many other holes unfortunately.

(And while I could go back and review stats for all past drafts in the last ten years, that would take time I don't have this morning, but I do not remember many WRs who have been top round picks that were not out right busts either.)

[Veretax]

Don't forget Josh Morgan on the 49ers, 319 yards and 3TDs is pretty good for a rookie WR picked after Durant Brooks in the 6th.

(Go Hokies)

I might have missed him to be honest. But one gem from rounds 4-7? and 300 yards is not exactly a major contribution either. That's an average of 18.75 Yards a game assuming 16 games. Which is my point. 300 Yards is good for a Rookie out of last years class, and only a handful out of the 35 or so WRs taken had 300 yards or more receiving. Does that mean they are all busts? No, but it doesn't mean they will be stars either.

[benskins26]

I'm nervous about nicks. Yes he looked awesome in that Car Care Bowl, but, does he do that consistently. I don't get many ACC Games that UNC is in so I honestly don't know if he's consistent or not.

Early in the season, he didn't have to, cause he wasn't the go to guy. UNC had Brandon Tate, that until he went down to season ending injury, was leading the ACC, and I believe the nation, in all purpose yardage. But when he went down, Nicks stepped in and completely filled the void, even with a backup QB throwing to him, and facing all kinds of double teams. He set numerous team records for a game, season, and career. He's incredible.

[Stew]

We should have picked Jordy Nelson and James Hardy and had the twin towers out there catching balls and have Moss flying around underneath and going long. Instead we got Little Brittle and the Invisible man. Kelly should never have been drafted, by us at least, and Thomas was just ranother gamble by Vinny. Much like Lloyd was a gamble. We could have had two sure things but took THE two biggest gambles of the WR draft class.

[Thinking Skins]

you could open it up even more and look at the DEs and OLBs and see that many of them also had unproductive rookie years.

[Thinking Skins]

But I do still hope we spend a lower draft pick on a WR to bring into camp to compete.

[SirClintonPortis]

Kelly has the right attitude. If it weren't for his knees, him making an immediate impact last year would have been fairly certain.

Thomas seems like he's learned his lesson with him working out with JC. I think after having practice against real corners(Springs, Rogers, now Hall), he's gotten used to the NFL a bit more.

The #3 spot is open, so should one of them win that spot, they will see the field, and they should produce more than last year.

[Blackest Eyes]

You know, from the amount of time Devin is putting in working with Jason, I expect to see him tear up the field this year. Hard work always shows.

[Stew]

Kelly has the right attitude. If it weren't for his knees, him making an immediate impact last year would have been fairly certain.

Thomas seems like he's learned his lesson with him working out with JC. I think after having practice against real corners(Springs, Rogers, now Hall), he's gotten used to the NFL a bit more.

The #3 spot is open, so should one of them win that spot, they will see the field, and they should produce more than last year.

Kelly can have the right attitude all he wants, if it wernt for his knees... well it was and still is. Fairly certain? based on speculation? Kelly was a bad gamble, and so was Thomas. 1 good year at Michigan State? Both pics were a reach and a half, and we had our pick of the receivers on the board.

[SirClintonPortis]

Kelly can have the right attitude all he wants, if it wernt for his knees... well it was and still is. Fairly certain? based on speculation? Kelly was a bad gamble, and so was Thomas. 1 good year at Michigan State? Both pics were a reach and a half, and we had our pick of the receivers on the board.

Thomas was simply raw. He has the physical tools, just needed a head fix. Seems like that's been done at least partially. He's a big guy with deep threat speed. The Redskins haven't had one of those in a while.

Eddie Royal has a vet attitude along with talent. The proof is in the pudding. They should have passed on Davis and picked him. He would have set a great example the Devin and the Posse 2.0 would have arrived this year.

[Brooklynskinsfan]

i have high hopes for devin and 0 expectations for kelly

[gortiz]

I would love to see this same chart created for other years with notable receivers (IE Chad Johnson's draft, Steve Smith's draft, TO's draft, etc). Can you bite the bullet and do 1 or 2 of these too?

+1

while i think these guys caught a bit of a raw deal with a rookie head coach, new offense, injuries, etc.

I think, like our QB, these guys have to step up this year...bye bye training wheels.

Same goes for Sleepy Head Fred.

[MattFancy]

I think alot of people forget that Thomas really only played one season of college ball before he came here. He transferred from a JuCo and didn't play much his 1st year at Michigan St. His 2nd year is when he took off and then decided to turn pro. He seems to have alot of talent and potential, he just needs some time to put it all together. One year in the NFL isn't enough to tell how great or bad someone is going to be.

[ABSTRACT]

Thats is what I am talking about. Do research on the positive things about your team instead of looking at the success of players from other teams and wishing that we picked them up. We must develop our players. We will be fine this year because due to the failed trade....we are finally going to have a year consistent from the last without making an idiotic and dramatic change in the off season.

With the signings of Dockett, Haynesworth, Hall, the continued coaching and QB positions, and a draft with 5-6 picks....we will be fine.

[#98QBKiller]

Great post Veretax. If you were to go on and research every draft class of the last 10-15 years you would see that only a small handful of WRs have stellar rookie campaigns.

Develop, develop, develop. That's what it takes. Wide receivers have a steep learning curve in trying to adjust to the speed of NFL defenses, learn a much larger playbook than they are accustomed to and develop a rapport with their QB. This doesn't even factor how much playing time they get.

Look at Devin Thomas' rookie #'s compared to Santana's...Devin had a better rookie season. He just needs time to develop. Hell, we saw him develop over the course of last season.

And if it wasn't for Heyer he'd have about 60 more yards and a TD

[nightbird]

I would love to see this same chart created for other years with notable receivers (IE Chad Johnson's draft, Steve Smith's draft, TO's draft, etc). Can you bite the bullet and do 1 or 2 of these too?

I'll take the Steve Smith 2001 Draft, because there were a ton of WR's taken in the top three rounds. They produced a wide variety of stats their rookie years.

I think the evidence speaks volumes:

1(8) -- David Terrell -- 34, 415, 4TD

1(9) -- Koren Robinson -- 39, 536, 1TD

1(15) -- Rod Gardner -- 46, 741, 4TD

1(16) -- Santana Moss -- 2, 40, 0TD

1(25) -- Freddie Mitchell -- 21, 283, 1TD

1(30) -- Reggie Wayne -- 27, 345, 0TD

2(33) -- Quincy Morgan -- 30, 432, 2TD

2(41) -- Robert Ferguson -- 0, 0, 0TD

2(52) -- Chris Chambers -- 48, 883, 7TD

3(74) -- Steve Smith -- 10, 154, 0TD

3(77) -- Marvin Minnis -- 33, 511, 1TD

So, if NFL message board posters going in to the 2002 season would have been talking about how Rod Gardner and Chris Chambers are awesome and have great futures ahead of them. Marvin Minnis, David Terrell, Koren Robinson and and Quincy Morgan all look like solid contributors for many years.

Santana Moss, Reggie Wayne and Steve Smith?

Ha, they combined for exactly ZERO touchdowns. Obvious busts. Keep an eye on Freddie Mitchell though as he learns that Andy Reid offense.

[MattFancy]

Santana Moss, Reggie Wayne and Steve Smith?

Ha, they combined for exactly ZERO touchdowns. Obvious busts. Keep an eye on Freddie Mitchell though as he learns that Andy Reid offense.

I posted earlier in the thread the numbers for TO, Randy Moss, Calvin, Fitz, Boldin, AJ, Chad, Housh, Wayne, and Smith's rookie seasons. Out of those 10, you would've thought only Moss, Boldin, AJ, and Fitz would be the only ones to do anything in the NFL. The others would just be busts. You can't just go by one season to figure out how good or bad someone will be...