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WT: Glimmer of hope in the Economy


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http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/feb/19/glimmer-hope-economy/

Glimmer of hope in the Economy

Indications that the economy may start to improve later this year surfaced in a report Thursday showing a surprising leap in economic activity in January. It marked the second consecutive monthly increase of those economic indicators.

The Conference Board, a private group, attributed most of the 0.4 percent rise in its monthly index of economic indicators to a jump in the money supply, a result of the Federal Reserve increasing its lending and buying of securities.

The 0.4 percent jump marked the biggest rise since December 2006 and followed a revised increase of 0.2 percent in December 2008. Economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters did not expect an increase in January for the index, which predicts economic activity for the next three to six months based on 10 components. Employment is one of them.

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Isnt "The Conference Board" a consortium of the worlds top executives? I tend to think they may paint things a bit more rosie in the name of consumer confidence.

That said, I think its very realistic to see month over month improvements, but they wouldnt be able to have anything meaningful statistically without at least 20 months of said trends used as comparrison data.

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schweet! I'm getting my company registered with every city, county, state, and fed agency and SBA, as well as bid reporting companies to be in a position to suck up as much of this stimulus $$$$ as possible :D

You know, if you can find a service disabled veteran to be a front man for your company, the FED can direct no-compete contracts to your business.

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This is what the Wash Post said on the front page yesterday morning:

Swift, Steep Downturn Crosses Globe

Markets Are Hammered as Hope Fades for Quick Recovery

By Tomoeh Murakami Tse

Washington Post Staff Writer

Wednesday, February 18, 2009; Page A01

NEW YORK, Feb. 17 -- Markets around the world plunged Tuesday as evidence mounted that the global economic crisis is worsening.

Japan is suffering its worst downturn in 35 years. The British economy is facing its sharpest decline in almost 30 years. Germany is slumping at its worst pace in nearly 20 years. Meanwhile, the job market in the United States, at the epicenter of the global downturn, is the worst in decades. And emerging economies are contracting at a pace few had predicted just months ago. Even China, whose economy still is growing at a 6.8 percent annual pace, is grappling with vast numbers of the unemployed, raising fears of unrest.

The sharpness of the global slowdown has alarmed economists, who see no obvious engine for recovery.

"Most Western developed economies are going to see the deepest downturn they've seen in a number of decades, in some cases possibly since the Second World War," said Jonathan Loynes, chief European economist at Capital Economics, an independent consultancy in London. "If you go back six months or so . . . there was a hope that some parts of the world will escape the downturn from the U.S. economy and that would help to support the global economy as a whole. And that hope has now faded. We're seeing a downturn in virtually every area of the world."

...

Japan's economy, the world's second-biggest, after only the United States, shrank at an annual rate of 12.7 percent during the last three months of 2008 -- the biggest contraction since the oil crisis of the mid-1970s. The British economy, damaged by the credit crisis, will contract at 3.3 percent, almost twice as much as predicted three months ago, according to the country's biggest business lobbying organization. Those two pieces of data, released Monday, came on the heels of a report Friday showing that the German economy, Europe's largest, shrank by 2.1 percent, the steepest drop since the country's reunification in 1990.

Some economists had argued that countries like Japan and Germany were better equipped to weather the downturn. Germany has little consumer debt, and Japan's banks are in better shape after the banking crisis of the 1990s. But their economies rely heavily on exports, and global demand for items such as Japanese and German cars has evaporated.

...

Earlier this month, Taiwan said exports plunged by record levels. In Mexico, the government was forced to intervene in the foreign exchange market after the peso reached an all-time low against the dollar. In China, slumping demand for exports has trimmed the growth of its powerful economy to nearly half its 13 percent pace in 2007.

...

"Manufacturing, construction, financial services, non-financial, retail -- wherever you look, you see a complete collapse in demand," said Julian Callow, an economist at Barclays Capital in London. "It really is like the floor has come out of confidence in global economic demand."

On Tuesday, the head of the International Monetary Fund urged countries to coordinate their economic stimulus efforts, saying he was "not optimistic" about the world economy.

"Today, the house is burning . . . so we have to act as firefighters," Dominique Strauss-Kahn said on French radio, the Associated Press reported.

...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/02/17/AR2009021703101.html

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schweet! I'm getting my company registered with every city, county, state, and fed agency and SBA, as well as bid reporting companies to be in a position to suck up as much of this stimulus $$$$ as possible :D

If you get all that stimulus money you gotta put ole Mick to work!!!

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