How Much Progress Since 2002?

[bulldog]

The Redskins finished 7-9 in 2002 under Steve Spurrier. After the season Vinny Cerrato stepped forward to 'reassure' Redskins fans that there indeed was a plan to get better, acquire additional players that would amplify Spurrier's quick gun offense and keep the defense solid under Marvin Lewis.

Sounds a lot like 2008. 8-8 record with a rookie head coach is followed by recrimminations on the lack of talent to implement the HC's system, at the same time a stated commitment to improve/augment the weak points on a defense that was by most accounts solid.

Again, Vinny Cerrato is at the wheel of the vehicle. We have to trust that Vinny has a better idea in 2009 of what kind of talent plays in the NFL vs. 2002-2003 when we saw the advent of Trung Canidate supplanting Stephen Davis as the feature runner and the drafting of Taylor Jacobs as a 'sure fire' contributor.

Anyone else remember that 2003 draft when Cerrato said afterward beaming that the Redskins were lucky to get Jacobs as the #44 pick in Round 2 because the War Room had him rated as a mid-first round pick?

Shades of the Thomas pick in 2008? Interesting piece over on the Redskins News Section about Thomas' one year at MSU and how unprepared for the NFL he apparently was last April.

Steve Spurrier admitted when he was hired that he was not interested in being the GM of the Redskins, he was here to 'coach and only coach'. By inclination, he was not going to put in the 15 hour days other NFL coaches did in their game prep, and was not going to go beyond his normal routine from his UF days to moonlight as a personnel evaluator.

That left the draft and FA largely to others to consider.

Because Zorn is a rookie head coach who was plucked from obscurity at age 55 one has to wonder how much latitude he has in providing feedback and influence in the offseason process vis a vis Cerrato and the front office.

And assuming he does have some input, does Zorn have any record of experience in evaluating college players and forecasting their transition to the NFL other than at the quarterback position?

The article on the 2008 draft over at the Redskins News section looks at the big gambles that Cerrato took on both Thomas (youth, inexperience, immaturity) and Kelly (demonstrated injury history that could limit his NFL career) with very crucial high draft picks.

When reading that the Redskins' own medical staff had concerns that Kelly's NFL career could be limited to just a few seasons because of his knees, one would have thought Cerrato would have passed on him as too risky at #2 and looked for him in a later round as other teams evidently were doing.

The 2008-9 offseason is starting off looking a lot like the offseason following Spurrier's first season here, where there was still some hope the team was going to be able to make the marriage work.

One wonders if the marriage this time (as in 2003) can withstand another whiff on personnel as this team took in 2008 with the draft picks and the trades for Jason Taylor and Erasmus James.

Amazingly, with all those new faces on the roster the players that lead the team in the various statistical categories in 2007 were the same ones that did so again in 2008.

the offseason produced little as it did in 2003.

[tr1]

The 2008-9 offseason is starting off looking a lot like the offseason following Spurrier's first season here, where there was still some hope the team was going to be able to make the marriage work.

One wonders if the marriage this time (as in 2003) can withstand another whiff on personnel as this team took in 2008 with the draft picks and the trades for Jason Taylor and Erasmus James.

Amazingly, with all those new faces on the roster the players that lead the team in the various statistical categories in 2007 were the same ones that did so again in 2008.

the offseason produced little as it did in 2003.

...and this is why it's so scary now that Gibbs is gone. Not only did he (Gibbs) do loads with little talent, he got them to produce down the stretch.

I just have an awful Norvis feeling about the next few years.

[bulldog]

I think you won't have to wait. You will feel this all come together in 2009 as a storm cloud about to deliver some rain and wind here.

This team has had basically the same core of talent on it since 2005.

10 wins in 2005, 5 wins in 2006, 9 wins in 2007, 8 wins in 2008.

The trendline on these 32 and 33 year players is headed down.

And there has been no transition plan to edge out 2-3 of these older guys each year with younger replacements so as to remain competitive.

All has been left to work out this offseason.

And there are only 4 draft picks in the kitty because Snyder/Cerrato panicked after Daniels got hurt in camp and HAD to trade for Taylor.

Most teams would have balked at the compensation, started Demetric Evans (as the Skins did anyway) and drafted a replacement in 2009.

That's what Pittsburgh would have done. That' what NE would have done.

Do you think either would have given Parcells the ransom he was asking for the 34 year old Taylor?

[SkinsHokieFan]

...and this is why it's so scary now that Gibbs is gone. Not only did he (Gibbs) do loads with little talent, he got them to produce down the stretch.

I just have an awful Norvis feeling about the next few years.

A lot of people said that many on this forum would miss the day Gibbs was gone

There are way too many things that are similar to that 2003 offseason so far this year

"New system" "Young QB" "not the right talent"

All things we heard in January of 2003

My only solace is that Zorn seemingly has a much better work ethic and has been in the NFL much longer then Spurrier and does understand what it takes to be a Superbowl team

[bulldog]

but no one else in management has any such first hand experience

worst of all problems at Redskins Park are not solved in systematic ways that produce even outcomes, they are 'resolved' by ad-hoc impulse decisions such as the one to trade for Jason Taylor or the move to sign Adam Archuleta when he told the Redskins he had doubts he could play the defense in Washington if his role was not modified.

[HighOnHendrix]

One wonders if the marriage this time (as in 2003) can withstand another whiff on personnel as this team took in 2008 with the draft picks and the trades for Jason Taylor and Erasmus James.

The Taylor trade I have no problem with. Who would have guessed the guy would have a freak-accident calf injury that would threaten his life? If he takes a pay cut I'd be glad to see him back. Erasmus James, OTOH was a bungle. The dude was already injured, had multiple knee injuries since college, and would have been released anyway had we not sent a pick to Minnesota. How many teams would have been clamoring for his services? Not many.

[bulldog]

HighOnHendrix, an older club like the Redskins coming off 9-7 has NO business trading a #2 pick for a 34 year old defensive lineman. Even if Taylor had posted 10 sacks this year it would not have been enough to propel this team to contender status.

Giving up those draft picks to Bill Parcells was silly.

Meanwhile, Parcells ships Taylor and Zach Thomas out of town and goes 11-5 with a roster rebuilt with younger players

Learn a lesson from the guys who really know HOW to do it

[iheartskins]

What you're really getting at in part is the power structure between Zorn and Cerrato--

When Gibbs was here, there was no lack of clarity with respect to who was actually calling the shots--it was Gibbs pure and simple as he was the one that agreed to join after being asked by Snyder--

Gibbs had the leverage and had negotiated for the power to make the last call--

As well all know, Zorn, on the other hand, was brought in as an OC, but ultimately won the HC job.

With Snyder's explicit promotion of Cerrato to "Head of Football Operations", Zorn likely does not have the leverage that Gibbs has to make his opinion matter and his views prevail.

With Cerrato's spotty track record at talent evaluation and the arguable (and to some, clear) lack of accountability for bad decisions which has seen many other failing performers kicked out of DC, the current situation is certainly unnerving.

Let's just hope that Zorn knows what he's doing and has the leverage to get the job done the right way.

[bulldog]

the observation that Cerrato overruled the Redskins medical staff in regards to the future prognosis for Malcolm Kelly before the draft is troubling to me.

with such high stakes riding on #1 and #2 picks, as a GM you have to be very wary about making a pick that carries this kind of downside risk.

the one thing even a great coach can't control is injuries to key players.

why potentially saddle Zorn and the Redskins with a player that has these kinds of problems getting on the field?

DeSean Jackson, Sean Avery, Eddie Royal were all available as Round 2 started and the Redskins could very easily have made moves instead to secure one of these three AND Devin Thomas and kept that extra #2 pick for a linemen (instead of Davis) and passed on the injury-prone Kelly.

[2cents]

No progress really. We are still average, but with different players. It also does not appear to be changing any time soon.

[bulldog]

remember, though, that in 2003 we fell to 5-11. the team gave up on Spurrier in the end and the Redskins had about as ugly of a December that year as I can recall.

anyone else remember the 27-0 loss to Dallas?

[88Comrade2000]

We are average to occasionally below average. As long as Vinny is GM, there really isn't much hope.

Things could get so bad in 2009 that it leads to Dan Snyder finally getting some competent people running things in 2010. It really depends on Jim Zorn. If he really is the real deal, then he will lead this team to the playoffs; despite the talent level. He will get the team to overachieve all the way to the playoffs. If not, then those who are hoping for Cowher or someone else may get there chance in 2010.

[Leonard Washington]

The Taylor trade I have no problem with. Who would have guessed the guy would have a freak-accident calf injury that would threaten his life? If he takes a pay cut I'd be glad to see him back. Erasmus James, OTOH was a bungle. The dude was already injured, had multiple knee injuries since college, and would have been released anyway had we not sent a pick to Minnesota. How many teams would have been clamoring for his services? Not many.

I take you one further. I think the James move was a good one too. This is the kind of gamble that good teams make.

[paintrain]

We are average to occasionally below average. As long as Vinny is GM, there really isn't much hope.

Things could get so bad in 2009 that it leads to Dan Snyder finally getting some competent people running things in 2010. It really depends on Jim Zorn. If he really is the real deal, then he will lead this team to the playoffs; despite the talent level. He will get the team to overachieve all the way to the playoffs. If not, then those who are hoping for Cowher or someone else may get there chance in 2010.

Wow, this post is right on target. It's really pathetic how this organization has been run since Snyder took over. In reality, the Gibbs years weren't all that different. In the grand scheme of things, Gibbs set the franchise back 6 years with his personnel decisions (starting with Brunell!) and left us with the aged team we have now.

If Zorn has to be the sacrificial lamb in order for Snyder to see the light and can Vinny for someone like Cowher, Holmgren or Shanny or even better yet to hire a legit president of football operations and let them fill out the front office and coaching staff, then so be it.

[deejaydana]

HighOnHendrix, an older club like the Redskins coming off 9-7 has NO business trading a #2 pick for a 34 year old defensive lineman. Even if Taylor had posted 10 sacks this year it would not have been enough to propel this team to contender status.

Giving up those draft picks to Bill Parcells was silly.

Meanwhile, Parcells ships Taylor and Zach Thomas out of town and goes 11-5 with a roster rebuilt with younger players

Learn a lesson from the guys who really know HOW to do it

The thing is, we were already really thin on the D-line before an injury almost forced the trade for JT---we simply had to add a lineman. Why we additionally threw in 2 picks for an aging star who already had stated his intent on a Hollywood career is beyond me but one thing is for sure: we screwed ourselves out of what would have been a high 2nd round pick. Outside of the Raiders we always make the worst deals in the league and when it comes to draft day we almost always overpay when we swing some deal to move up the board (see JC and Mcintosh).

[iheartskins]

well bulldog, as with other things that frustrate fans, there has to be some form of ramification for things to change--

Will Redskins tickets/concenssions go down in price? Not until people stop buying them...

Until Cerrato has a demotion and/or is canned, why would anything change?

Cerrato has every incentive to take risks without any implication to his future with the team.

What has his lackluster performance earned him? Nothing but a promotion.

This same phenomenon is what brought down Salomon Brothers and LTCM: you have to keep the risk takers in check or they'll take risks without regard to potential outcome thinking they are invincible.

[Lombardi's_kid_brother]

I think it is inarguable that we are a more professional outfit than we were in 2002. 2002 and 2003 we were making decisions based on complete guesswork and stuff seen in Gainesville, Florida in the Spring of 1996 or something. Gibbs - if he did nothing else - gave some sense of how a pro team should look and behave. How long that makeover lasts is another question.

The problem is that we are at the end of one rebuilding cycle (the 2004 Free Agent Class) that didn't exactly set the league of fire though it did have some modest success. We are entering a new rebuilding cycle with limitted ammo (the draft) and a potentially limited general (Cerratto).

[tr1]

In the grand scheme of things, Gibbs set the franchise back 6 years with his personnel decisions (starting with Brunell!) and left us with the aged team we have now.

:doh:

Two playoff appearances in four years with sub-par talent, and Gibbs is to blame?

The problem here is fitting a square peg into a round hole: JC into a WC offense...he was drafted for a Gibbs H-Back, two WR offense to throw down field...something he could succeed at given the o-line protection.

Horton was a good find, but otherwise, this is a horrible whiff at the draft by the FO in the last draft...and at HC.

BTW, Parcells' only hesitancy to play rookies is at the qb and skill positions...otherwise, he's comfortable with guys 'learning on the job,' something we don't see happen often on the Skins.

The party, as mild as it was, is over.

Did Zorn really say he was happy with his play calling? :doh:

[paintrain]

:doh:

Two playoff appearances in four years with sub-par talent, and Gibbs is to blame?

The problem here is fitting a square peg into a round hole: JC into a WC offense...he was drafted for a Gibbs H-Back, two WR offense to throw down field...something he could succeed at given the o-line protection.

Horton was a good find, but otherwise, this is a horrible whiff at the draft by the FO in the last draft...and at HC.

BTW, Parcells' only hesitancy to play rookies is at the qb and skill positions...otherwise, he's comfortable with guys 'learning on the job,' something we don't see happen often on the Skins.

The party, as mild as it was, is over.

Did Zorn really say he was happy with his play calling? :doh:

I didn't mean that he was wholly to blame BUT are we really better suited for sustained success now than when he got here? What moves did he make that we can say have us 'set' for the next 3-6 years? I'll give him credit for upgrading some positions-Portis, Landry, Moss.. Campbell is still a question mark but IMO Gibbs screwed the franchise with the Brunell decision. Once it was determined that Ramsey wasn't the guy, there were numerous other QB options in '04, '05 that could have been chosen over a fading backup.

As a result of Gibbs short-term plan, we have a much older roster than most teams, (thanks to the FA classes of 2004 & 2006) didn't stockpile any draft picks for Vinny to screw up, didn't draft particularly well, let good young talent get away for nothing (Pierce, Dockery), made other dubious moves that created holes rather than filling them (letting Smoot leave required drafting Rogers instead of Merriman or Ware) and overall failed to leave any tangible ON FIELD imprint for his 2nd tenure.

Yes he's still a legend and brought some much needed professionalism back to the organization, but as far as his 2.0 legacy I am far from impressed.

[Oldfan]

bulldog, if we accept your premises that:

= Vinny has learned nothing since 2002

= the scouting system hasn't been upgraded since then

= either Jim Zorn is as lazy as Spurrier or is shutout from the draft process

= a head coach needs to be able to evaluate players at all positions and Zorn is lacking

= Thomas, Kelly and the other picks on the roster, except Horton, will be busts

...then your conclusion that the 2008 offseason was no more productive than 2003 looks solid to me

[Mr. Blitz]

:doh:

Two playoff appearances in four years with sub-par talent, and Gibbs is to blame?

The problem here is fitting a square peg into a round hole: JC into a WC offense...he was drafted for a Gibbs H-Back, two WR offense to throw down field...something he could succeed at given the o-line protection.

Horton was a good find, but otherwise, this is a horrible whiff at the draft by the FO in the last draft...and at HC.

BTW, Parcells' only hesitancy to play rookies is at the qb and skill positions...otherwise, he's comfortable with guys 'learning on the job,' something we don't see happen often on the Skins.

The party, as mild as it was, is over.

Did Zorn really say he was happy with his play calling? :doh:

Haha....I thought that was amusing as well!!! He did say he was happy with his play calling and when asked why he doesn't give that up so he can concentrate on the being the HC.... he replies "because I like it" Wow...give me a shot at calling plays....I would like it too!!:doh:

[scruffylookin]

:doh:

Two playoff appearances in four years with sub-par talent, and Gibbs is to blame?

The problem here is fitting a square peg into a round hole: JC into a WC offense...he was drafted for a Gibbs H-Back, two WR offense to throw down field...something he could succeed at given the o-line protection.

Horton was a good find, but otherwise, this is a horrible whiff at the draft by the FO in the last draft...and at HC.

BTW, Parcells' only hesitancy to play rookies is at the qb and skill positions...otherwise, he's comfortable with guys 'learning on the job,' something we don't see happen often on the Skins.

The party, as mild as it was, is over.

Did Zorn really say he was happy with his play calling? :doh:

First, 2 6th seed playoff appearences (plus 2 other 10+ loss seasons) is quite a low bar for success. Is that what we've come too?

Beyond that, you give credit to Gibbs for reaching the playoffs with "sub-par talent". Well, who the hell is responsible for that talent? Joe Gibbs. Either it's his fault for selecting that talent and failing to build a young and deep offensive line or Gibbs, as President of Football Operations, is at fault for keeping Vinny and the rest of the boobs in this front office who gave him the crappy advice.

Either way this is Gibbs' failure as much as anyone's.

As for the original subject of the thread, I don't see any progress as a franchise from 2002 until now. We've gone the draft route in 2002 and 2008. We've gone on free agent spending sprees in 2003, 2004 & 2006 (I have a feeling we're going to go on another one this offseason). There has not been a plan in place to build a championship team. Every year it's "what needs to we have to fill in order to win this season".

Perfect example of this is the drafting of Jason Campbell. They drafted a QB that they hoped would be a franchise QB and lead this team. But they ignored the offensive line so that when Jason (if they were right about him and the jury is still out) was ready to blossom in 3 seasons, our Oline was old and we had no depth thus providing him with poor protection. Talk about planning.:doh:

Vinny has always talked about "having a plan" and I don't doubt him. But the problem has always been that the plan was how to get this team better in that given year (Jason Taylor vs. giving up a 2nd round pick) and not a plan looking to 3 or 4 years down the road where this team will be good and solid and be able to win, and more importantly, sustain that winning over a period of time.

[2cents]

What could help a lot is for Zorn to admit that we do not have the guys for the WCO and build an O to their strengths instead of install his "system". That is the only way I see success in the short term. Long term..whatever Vinnie's "plan" is I don't believe it because it is real obvious that he does not have one.

[Tastes Like Chicken]

Cerrato is a joke, and Snyder has no more football knowledge than most on ES. Until we have a professional GM, we'll continue to languish in mediocrity (or less). Things in the NFL are somewhat cyclic, yet the Skins seem to whiff on those cycles. Most years it was Vinny/Snyder, a couple Gibbs (who had final say on things, made us competitive again, but had family issues which altered the trajectory of the offense). But in the glory days of Gibbs I, he wasn't the personnel guy, there was a GM and an owner who knew how to win, and who commanded respect.

Assuming that Snyder will be owning this franchise for another 30-40 years, the best we can hope for is that he'll tire of Vinny and move him/eliminate him from decision-making and hire a GM, or fire Zorn and have one of those Coach-GM's, which I don't think works really but I'll take that scenario over any that includes Vinny Cerrato, any day of the week.

[Fred Jones]

Well, hopefully, we can bring someone in next off season to right the ship if Vinny still hasn't got it.

I thought Zorn the HC did ok this season as a rookie HC. I thought Zorn the OC graded out as a C or C-.

I am giving Vinny one more off season to show me what he can do. Unfortunately, we are stuck with Jansen and Thomas for at least one more year with Thomas probably two more years.

Hopefully, if Vinny demonstrates that he doesn't have it the owner we bring in a new GM.

I bet Cowher sits at the top of that list for next off season.

We just have to suffer through another season to wait for this to transpire.