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PFW: Boom Or Bust List For 2008 Draft Picks


VCDefectors

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http://www.profootballweekly.com/PFW/Commentary/Columns/2008/edholm070808.htm

First-round picks are usually a toss-up — so let's make calls on this year's class

By Eric Edholm

If the NFL draft is a crapshoot, then picking in the first round might as well be a coin flip. As in, half the picks end up doing well, half don’t.

Historically, that is how it has been. And though none of the players has taken anything close to a meaningful snap in the NFL, I have an idea who I think ultimately will be worth a first-round selection, and who won’t.

Don’t believe me on the 50-50 notion? If it does indeed take three years to evaluate a draft, let’s take a look back at the 2005 edition.

In the “boom” category, I have: Braylon Edwards, DeMarcus Ware, Shawne Merriman, Jammal Brown, Derrick Johnson, Jason Campbell, Roddy White, Luis Castillo, Marlin Jackson, Heath Miller, Mike Patterson and Logan Mankins. It’s probably too early to make a call on guys like Ronnie Brown or Pacman — er, Adam — Jones or Aaron Rodgers, so for sake of argument, let’s call them potential booms.

That’s 16. The other 16 guys drafted that year, for whatever reason, haven’t panned out as expected. Some, such as David Pollack, we never could have anticipated his career-ending injury. Others, like Cedric Benson, have been flops on and off the field.

Inexact science? You bet. Just look at who I called would-be busts from last year — among them, Joe Thomas, Amobi Okoye, Marshawn Lynch, Leon Hall, Aaron Ross and Dwayne Bowe. Some of my booms weren’t too much better, though there’s lots of time for things to change.

But I am at it again, casting sweeping judgments on players who have yet to take an NFL snap. Hey, it’s fun, and you guys seem to like to razz me when I am wrong. I probably got more responses last year for my “50-50” column than I did for any two others combined that I have written at PFW. Some liked it, but many did not. I can take it.

On with the list — and with one fewer first-rounder this year, I chose 16 booms and 15 busts, revealing my soft side:

1. OT Jake Long — Dolphins

Prediction: Boom

After meeting him in May, I felt as though this was a very confident, down-to-earth and professional young man. The tape shows how good he has been. He might not be as good as Joe Thomas one day could, or as Tony Boselli was, but Long could be Jon Jansen or Levi Jones good. That’s good enough for me.

2. DE Chris Long — Rams

Prediction: Boom

I struggled with this one, as I think Long might be Grant Wistrom — no better, no worse. Is that good enough for the No. 2 spot in the draft? I’ll say yes, reluctantly. Long is a tireless worker who has good but not elite skills, and there will be guys who erase his pass rush. But as a leader, run stopper and all-out hustler, he’ll be a pro’s pro and a coach’s dream.

3. QB Matt Ryan — Falcons

Prediction: Boom

The Falcons’ franchise has put its hopes in this young man, and it’s not going to happen this season. In fact, I think he’ll struggle for the most part. But watch him improve. He’ll work and study and keep working, and he has the tools to one day be great. He has a lot working against him now, but Mike Smith appears to have a winner who one day should be very good at what he does.

4. RB Darren McFadden — Raiders

Prediction: Boom

I say boom with a caveat — he might never be the back his talent suggests he can be. That said, as long as McFadden can stay focused, work harder, avoid off-field distractions and learn to hang on to the ball, he’s the mold of back who almost always is productive in some phase of the game. This is not Lawrence Phillips.

5. DT Glenn Dorsey — Chiefs

Prediction: Boom

How good do I think he is? I think the Dolphins and Rams might seriously regret not having taken him. Dorsey will be freed up to penetrate in this defense, and there is some talent around him, despite the Chiefs’ youth. This was one of their more inspired high draft picks in recent memory.

6. OLB Vernon Gholston — Jets

Prediction: Bust

Yeah, I finally found my first real bust. There are few better athletes than Gholston — in this class, or in the NFL for that matter — who possess his size and raw ability. But I have serious reservations about the hot-and-cold nature of his play in college (especially the cold against lesser competition) and whether he can be a cerebral, instinctive linebacker. He came off as being very intelligent in talking to him before the draft, but I don’t think he’ll ever put it together as a complete player with the sixth pick.

7. DT Sedrick Ellis — Saints

Prediction: Boom

Perhaps just a shade below Dorsey, but I think Ellis is the second-best defensive player in this draft. In fact, we could look back and say those two will be the best players in this draft. He’ll be an immediate contributor to a Saints defense that desperately needs a player who can collapse the pocket and stuff the run. Ellis can and will.

8. DE Derrick Harvey — Jaguars

Prediction: Bust

I admire the Jaguars for being aggressive in the draft, figuring they are a few impact players away from a Super Bowl, but I don’t think Harvey ever will amount to being the pass rusher the Jaguars think he’ll be. I think he’ll be an inconsistent rusher who provides average run defense.

9. LB Keith Rivers — Bengals

Prediction: Bust

When we look back, there might not be much difference between Rivers and guys such as Landon Johnson, Ahmad Brooks and other linebackers the Bengals have had recently. Rivers is a fine, rare athlete — probably the best pure specimen I saw at the Senior Bowl — but I don’t think he’ll ever be more than a solid tackler who lacks in the playmaking department.

10. LB Jerod Mayo — Patriots

Prediction: Boom

Bill Belichick handpicked this young man to make the transition from the Bruschi-Vrabel days to the next generation. Sure, Mayo was drafted as a junior and might need time to season — just as Carl Banks once did — but he could be something special in time. He’s an inside ’backer who can turn and run, rush the passer and make plays in the hole.

11. CB Leodis McKelvin — Bills

Prediction: Bust

The thing that scares me with him is his confidence. I saw him struggle at times in Mobile, and you could tell he didn’t like being the focus of attention. I don’t see him ever becoming the lockdown corner that Nate Clements became in Buffalo, but I do think McKelvin will be an excellent returner. That said, only Devin Hester is a good-enough returner to justify this high a pick.

12. OT Ryan Clady — Broncos

Prediction: Bust

I have heard enough concerns about the hefty Clady’s ability to keep his weight in check while gaining strength and handle the rigors of professional life and an NFL offense that I have to go against this pick. He might be a bad fit for the scheme they run in Denver.

13. RB Jonathan Stewart — Panthers

Prediction: Boom

John Fox wants to run the ball, and he has two very capable backs. Stewart reminds me of a young Jamal Lewis, but he might have a little more spring in his step. He has agility and power, making him an ideal fit in this offense. He’ll be hard to keep off the field and could be a Rookie of the Year candidate.

14. OT Chris Williams — Bears

Prediction: Bust

I didn’t like this pick the minute it was made, and I still don’t. The Bears’ front office appeared to settle for Williams, a player they targeted early in the draft process, and one day they’ll regret not taking Branden Albert. Williams doesn’t play with enough grit to be a star in Chicago, especially in the cold months, and his finesse skills likely will go to waste in this scheme.

15. OT Branden Albert — Chiefs

Prediction: Boom

Based on my comments for Williams above, you can guess that I like the kid. I think he’s this generation’s Will Shields — the soon-to-be leader of a reborn Chiefs offensive line. He’s athletic, assertive and only getting better.

16. CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie — Cardinals

Prediction: Boom

Unlike his fellow small-school cornerback, Leodis McKelvin, Rodgers-Cromartie appears to have good confidence and a great knack for reading the ball in the air. He closes extremely fast and won’t be thrown to the dogs right away, allowing him to work in the slot, put on weight and get a little tougher. Once he learns how to hit and tackle, his ball skills are too good for him not to become a playmaking corner.

17. OT Gosder Cherilus — Lions

Prediction: Bust

I watch a lot of Boston College football, and though I wasn’t convinced Mathias Kiwanuka wasn’t going to be special, I feel like I have a decent read on Cherilus. He’s a solid player who has shown some nasty streaks, but he too often looked like the wheels were spinning in his head when he played. Cherilus’ feet can get tangled up at times, and I think quicker guys will trouble him.

18. QB Joe Flacco — Ravens

Prediction: Bust

If Ozzie Newsome has a weakness, it has been evaluating quarterbacks, and I feel he has misread again. Flacco is a scary doppelganger of the man he ostensibly will replace, Kyle Boller. Like Boller, Flacco has tremendous skills, but he’s too wooden and mechanical and won’t be able to use his great arm strength if he doesn’t improve against the rush.

19. OT Jeff Otah — Panthers

Prediction: Boom

In the Jonathan Stewart entry, you see why I think he’ll be effective. Here’s another reason: Otah. He’s a bull who absolutely can steamroll single defenders head-on. Want to be entertained? Watch him ragdoll Chris Long when Pitt played Virginia. Otah might have some kinks in his technique he needs to work out, but Dave Magazu — an underrated OL coach — should help him improve enough to be very good right away.

20. CB Aqib Talib — Buccaneers

Prediction: Bust

In college, Talib often was one of the three or four best athletes on the field when he played, but that no longer will be the case. He freelances too much and gives far too big a cushion to be a man corner. Sure, he’ll be playing in Monte Kiffin’s cover-2 scheme, which will cover some of that up, but Talib lacks strength, must overcome maturity issues (witness his fight with teammate Cory Boyd at the Rookie Symposium) and he might not be the toughest player.

21. OT Sam Baker — Falcons

Prediction: Bust

You might think that Baker’s success would be tied to that of Matt Ryan, but I think Baker would be best served inside. He’s technically solid and can pass-block fairly well, but I am not convinced he’s an eight- or 10-year starter at left tackle.

22. RB Felix Jones — Cowboys

Prediction: Boom

I tried not to get too excited by Jones’ athleticism or versatility, or by the team that picked him, but he appears to be coming into a perfect position. Jones has burn, and he won’t face the brunt of being a 15- or 20-carry back and the damage that comes with it. Instead, the Cowboys will get the most bang for their buck by using him in a variety of roles that will showcase his exceptional long speed and playmaking.

23. RB Rashard Mendenhall — Steelers

Prediction: Bust

Based on reports of the way he left Illinois and how he was only a one-year star, Mendenhall has the earmarks of a player who doesn’t ever become a special back. Willie Parker, the man he is supposed to replace, is a more complete back and will hold off the rookie’s challenge. My thoughts exactly...:laugh:

24. RB Chris Johnson — Titans

Prediction: Bust

One of the more curious first-round picks, Johnson might be faster than Felix Jones by a hair, but he’s nowhere near the same all-around performer. Johnson might fill a role as a specialist who makes a few eye-opening plays, but there is little chance he’ll be a bell-cow back with his size and fragility.

25. CB Mike Jenkins — Cowboys

Prediction: Boom

Like Felix Jones, Jenkins is blessed by being on a veteran team that doesn’t need him to be a star from Day One. Instead, he can work in nickel and dime defenses and hone his natural talent. Some scouts were concerned with Jenkins’ work ethic and freelancing on the field, but he’s a raw talent who might become this Cowboys generation’s Kevin Smith, who had a fine career with 19 picks in 93 starts.

26. OT Duane Brown — Texans

Prediction: Bust

Not one scout I talked to after the draft liked this pick, and I am apt to follow their lead. It seemed like a reach at the time, and though Brown has some athletic ability, he’s not a mushroom-club kind of guy, based on his college tape.

27. CB Antoine Cason — Chargers

Prediction: Bust

Cason has the look and feel of a cover-2 corner wedged into in a defense that wants to pressure and often play man defense. He played in a passing conference (Pac-10) in college and made his share of plays (15 interceptions), but Cason isn’t very physical and might not help in the run game. Cason will be the type of player who makes four interceptions in a season but doesn’t project to be the all-around player Antonio Cromartie is.

28. DE Lawrence Jackson — Seahawks

Prediction: Bust

I thought Jackson was a nice college player, but I have heard two scouts say he’s not special in any way and that a lot of his production in college came from the fact that he was surrounded by elite talent at USC. You didn’t often see him double-teamed, which is a good indication he didn’t warrant such treatment. In Seattle’s system, Jackson will rotate a lot. I suspect he’ll never be great, though he could be serviceable.

29. DE Kentwan Balmer — 49ers

Prediction: Boom

Although I am not in love in Balmer, I think he has a chance to be a Ty Warren-like player. He has enough flexibility to play end in a 3-4 defense or tackle in a 4-3, and the 49ers plan to change fronts, just as New England does. Balmer’s statistics — he’s not going to be a big tackler or sack guy — won’t adequately represent his value, but I think he’ll be a strong anchor.

30. TE Dustin Keller — Jets

Prediction: Boom

Keller might be the Jets’ answer to the Colts’ Dallas Clark. Though Keller isn’t a refined blocker yet, he is a truck once he has the ball in his hands and has a chance to be a fan favorite right away. I think he’ll be a 40- to 60-catch guy who gets in the endzone regularly.

31. S Kenny Phillips — Giants

Prediction: Boom

The Giants haven’t had a Pro Bowl safety since Terry Kinard in 1988, and though I am not sure Phillips ever will be that good, I think he’ll he a strong tackler, a decent playmaker and a rangy coverage guy. Maybe he'll never be special, but it's good enough to warrant the pick here.

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22. RB Felix Jones — Cowboys

Prediction: Boom :nono:

I tried not to get too excited by Jones’ athleticism or versatility, or by the team that picked him, but he appears to be coming into a perfect position. :rolleyes:Jones has burn, and he won’t face the brunt of being a 15- or 20-carry back and the damage that comes with it. Instead, the Cowboys will get the most bang for their buck by using him in a variety of roles that will showcase his exceptional long speed and playmaking.

umm being drafted that high to gain 600-700 yards = bust

to be a boom, he'd have to unseat MBIII, and put up numbers pokes fans haven't seen since Emmit became a Cardinal

23. RB Rashard Mendenhall — Steelers

Prediction: Bust :laugh:

Based on reports of the way he left Illinois and how he was only a one-year star, Mendenhall has the earmarks of a player who doesn’t ever become a special back. Willie Parker, the man he is supposed to replace, is a more complete back and will hold off the rookie’s challenge.

:doh: So Jenkins attitude and work ethic won't hurt him because he's playing behind a veteran secondary, but Mendenhall dispite his talent, and in the exact if not better situation will be a bust :rolleyes:

nothing like consistency huh? :jerk:

My thoughts exactly... correction... that's your hope since Jerrah skipped him for Felix :laugh:

24. RB Chris Johnson — Titans

Prediction: Bust

One of the more curious first-round picks, Johnson might be faster than Felix Jones by a hair, but he’s nowhere near the same all-around performer. :laugh: Johnson might fill a role as a specialist who makes a few eye-opening plays, but there is little chance he’ll be a bell-cow back with his size and fragility.

yet Felix Jones doing the same behind MBIII, will be a star? :insane:

definitely a Poke fan, rationalizing Jerrah's picking Felix

25. CB Mike Jenkins — Cowboys

Prediction: Boom

Like Felix Jones, Jenkins is blessed by being on a veteran team that doesn’t need him to be a star from Day One. Instead, he can work in nickel and dime defenses and hone his natural talent. Some scouts were concerned with Jenkins’ work ethic and freelancing on the field, but he’s a raw talent who might become this Cowboys generation’s Kevin Smith, who had a fine career with 19 picks in 93 starts.......

again, nothing like consistency huh?

who wrote this nonsense THA? :doh:

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25. CB Mike Jenkins — Cowboys

Prediction: Boom[/b]

Like Felix Jones, Jenkins is blessed by being on a veteran team that doesn’t need him to be a star from Day One. Instead, he can work in nickel and dime defenses and hone his natural talent. Some scouts were concerned with Jenkins’ work ethic and freelancing on the field, but he’s a raw talent who might become this Cowboys generation’s Kevin Smith, who had a fine career with 19 picks in 93 starts.......

20. CB Aqib Talib — Buccaneers

Prediction: Bust

In college, Talib often was one of the three or four best athletes on the field when he played, but that no longer will be the case. He freelances too much and gives far too big a cushion to be a man corner. Sure, he’ll be playing in Monte Kiffin’s cover-2 scheme, which will cover some of that up, but Talib lacks strength, must overcome maturity issues (witness his fight with teammate Cory Boyd at the Rookie Symposium) and he might not be the toughest player

So Edholm thinks Talib will bust b/c he feels he "freelances too much" and is immature, yet he notes the same things in the Cowboys' pick of Jenkins, but blows it off completely. :rolleyes:

Oh yeah, definitely a Cowboy fan wrote this article. :)

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You guys already hit on most of the items that jumped out at me *cough Cowboy homer*. Here are some other thoughts.

Any player going to Oakland is going to a bust. The same goes for any TE going to the Jets.

Although his stats may not be huge, Harvey going to the Jags is a good fit - will not be a bust.

McKelvin will do fine in Buffalo.

If the Giants hit on Phillips that will be two years in a row they've done a great job with a late first round pick. I don't think he is that special but should have an average career.

Similar to Harvey, I don't think Chris Long will put up huge numbers. Also, he could get off to a real slow start this year.

Rams president Jay Zygmunt says he'll meet with the agent for No. 2 overall pick Chris Long as early as Tuesday to discuss contract numbers.

Can you believe it...Rams news! The player slotted in front of Long (the Dolphins' Jake) signed a five-year, $57.75 million contract with $30 million in guarantees. Behind Long is Atlanta's Matt Ryan (six years, $72 million w/$34 million guaranteed. This disparity is going to make it quite difficult for inept St. Louis management to have Long in training camp on time.

Source: St Louis Post-Dispatch

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So Edholm thinks Talib will bust b/c he feels he "freelances too much" and is immature, yet he notes the same things in the Cowboys' pick of Jenkins, but blows it off completely. :rolleyes:

Oh yeah, definitely a Cowboy fan wrote this article. :)

No no no. Silly people. It's OK, hell, it's a GOOD thing to freelance in Dallas. With the structure and role models that big D provides with such stars as TO, Pacman and Tank, freelancing is encouraged, even necessitated.

Duh.

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The "Boom or Bust" phrase is one of the most meaningless phrases in football. Is it okay that some of these guys turn out to be just good football players?

Plus, what did this guy do, flip a coin going down the list?

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why not post with your actual comments instead of the Espn homers! Atleast put how they looked in OTA's some of these so called bust you have on here could have or did show they belonged being taken in the first round! This was a copy paste post nothing original in analysis! Close this post and reopen after preseason, to early to tell!

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correction... that's your hope since Jerrah skipped him for Felix :laugh:

I've seen all of the Mendenhall highlights. Somebody please explain why he is supposed to be a special RB. I don't see it.

Give me the playmaking ability of Felix. He's a much better fit for the Cowboys, especially since they already have Barber.

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[

QUOTE=VCDefectors]I've seen all of the Mendenhall highlights. Somebody please explain why he is supposed to be a special RB. I don't see it.

Because guys with that size and speed aren't supposed to do what he does!

Also this helps:

In 2007, was named Big Ten Conference Offensive Player of the Year. He ranked second in the league and eighth in the country with 262 carries, setting school season-records with 1,681 yards (6.4 avg) and 17 touchdowns. He also set a school record with 1,999 all-purpose yards, ranking third in the Big Ten with an average of 153.77 yards per game. He also made 34 catches for 318 yards (9.4 avg) and two touchdowns, scoring 114 points for his final campaign.

All for a 5'11 220 running back who runs between the tackles!

Give me the playmaking ability of Felix. He's a much better fit for the Cowboys, especially since they already have Barber.

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So the RBs chosen around Feliz Jones are all busts, yet Jones will boom for the same reasons those guys will bust.

So the CBs taken around Jenkins are all busts, yet Jenkins will boom for the same reason those guys will bust.

Interesting. The inconsistency, not the article.

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What a contrived pile of crap, an article designed to generate controversy for controversies sake. No surprise this dreck originates from PFW. This article is completely unworthy of being discussed in any capacity other than mocking disdain. And this is coming from a Giants fan, who you would think should be satisfied this moron selected Philips as a boom.

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30. TE Dustin Keller — Jets

Prediction: Boom

Keller might be the Jets’ answer to the Colts’ Dallas Clark. Though Keller isn’t a refined blocker yet, he is a truck once he has the ball in his hands and has a chance to be a fan favorite right away. I think he’ll be a 40- to 60-catch guy who gets in the endzone regularly.

Watching Keller play was always fun. Dude knows what to do after the catch, and he's surprisingly fast moving down the field. If the Jets' revamped O-line has the effect on the offense that some people are predicting, he could have a good year.

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No no no. Silly people. It's OK, hell, it's a GOOD thing to freelance in Dallas. With the structure and role models that big D provides with such stars as TO, Pacman and Tank, freelancing is encouraged, even necessitated.

Duh.

I love the reference of TO, PacMan and Tank you use as the Cowboys role models. No mention of

Chris Canty and his football camp

http://chriscanty99.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=blogcategory&id=19&Itemid=105

Ware and his wife adopting

http://www.theinsider.com/news_event/983933_DeMarcus_Ware_Had_An_Extra_Special_Father_s_Day

Father’s Day was bittersweet for DeMarcus Ware. He was able to hold his adopted 3 month old daughter, finally, after three failed pregnancies and a son that was stillborn. Stories like this amaze me…

Greg Ellis helping rookies and others despite his annual frustrations

http://www.dallascowboys.com/news.cfm?id=40F0F0D4-AFDF-6A5A-BCDA3C4E52917538

Spencer said one player helping him do that is none other than Ellis, who publicly expressed his frustrations with the Cowboys organization two weeks ago. Ellis, who has two years remaining on his contract, said he would like to see more of a financial commitment from the Cowboys and wasn't too excited to see the team use a first-round pick on a player at his position.

However, that hasn't stopped Ellis from being the team player he's always been. Spencer said Ellis not only gives him a few pointers on the practice field, but is busy offering advice in the team meetings. "Greg has really helped me," Spencer said. "He gives me a lot of good tips on what to do in certain situations. He knows where I'm coming from and the things I need to do to get better. He's probably the person I talk to the most because I sit right behind him in meetings. So whenever I have a question about what happened out on the field, I go to him and he's always telling me what I'm doing right or wrong."

Ken Hamlin

Bradie James

Zach Thomas

You guys also fail to ever bring up........

1. How T.O. constantly reaches and connects with players such as Austin and Hurd, how he stays after practice to work with them

2. Also you keep beating the same drum when it comes to Tank. How about you go find something that supports you claim. It seems to me that he is fitting in with the team, and is challening for a starting spot, if you did have something you would post it like I did.

http://www.dallascowboys.com/news.cfm?id=2C661547-E175-B7C2-5092C4D56A0C3098

But hey what can I say.

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I love the reference of TO, PacMan and Tank you use as the Cowboys role models. No mention of

Ware and his wife adopting

http://www.theinsider.com/news_event/983933_DeMarcus_Ware_Had_An_Extra_Special_Father_s_Day

Father’s Day was bittersweet for DeMarcus Ware. He was able to hold his adopted 3 month old daughter, finally, after three failed pregnancies and a son that was stillborn. Stories like this amaze me…

Ok, what exactly do Ware and his wife adopting a baby have to do with keeping a roookie from freelancing on the field? lol...

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Ok, what exactly do Ware and his wife adopting a baby have to do with keeping a roookie from freelancing on the field? lol...

Well first of all if u notice I talked about the ROLE MODEL PART. Its called reading comprehension.

Its shows his character as a person and a leader to the team.

I mean out of a team of 53 men , people tend to pull 3 out of a hat and feed off of that. Well what about the other 50 guys that are doing good things for the team and society, I guess they dont matter in burgandy colored glasses.

"Just my thoughts man" Jay Z

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Its shows his character as a person and a leader to come.
How, in any way, does adopting a child show character? They wanted a child, were unable to have one, so they adopted. Maybe if they were adopting orphans from third-world countries, despite being able to have their own children, but that isn't the case. Weaksauce.
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How' date=' in any way, does adopting a child show character? They wanted a child, were unable to have one, so they adopted. Maybe if they were adopting orphans from third-world countries, despite being able to have their own children, but that isn't the case. Weaksauce.[/quote']

Are you serious, You really asked me how adopting a child shows character. So adopting a child from a third world country makes you a better person then one that adopts a child from their own country. :laugh:

Just to let you know my 13 and 9 year old are seriously laughing at you and saying your heart is covered.....

:laugh:

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Are you serious, You really asked me how adopting a child shows character. So adopting a child from a third world country makes you a better person then one that adopts a child from their own country. :laugh:

Just to let you know my 13 and 9 year old are seriously laughing at you and saying your heart is covered.....

:laugh:

At no point in that post did you refute what I said or prove your point. Asking me if I'm serious isn't an intelligent response. Just so you know, I'm adopted, and I'm laughing at you and your children. Your heart is covered in weaksauce.
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