Cerrato: Our Position Needs and Their Overall Early Draft Success Rates!!!

[elkabong82]

Ok, so I keep reading threads about the draft arguing which position we should draft with the first rounder. Some threads explain yes or no on WRs, some on DEs, some on O-linemen. So I have decided to list here every WR, DE, DT, CB, OT and OG taken in the LOWER part of the first round the past 6 drafts (this should accurately reflect trends). We pick at the low spot, so including players that were taken top 10 will only skew the stats, as that talent is a better guarantee, typically, and we aren't in a position to draft that high.

I'm not using much stats, just observations as to which of the players taken are solid NFL players, and which ones are serviceable at best. I will be examining the players taken between the 16th and 32nd spot, as that bracket represents the bottom half of the draft where we are picking, and accurately reflects the same type of talent which will be avaible for us. To the left of each position there will be a number 1-5, with 5 being the highest, which is my overall grade on the players taken at that postion ( AS A WHOLE OF THAT GROUP).

* If there was a player 1 spots removed from 16-32 and they helped improve the standing of the position, I included them. I didn't include the ones that would worsen the position, as those players were all at positions already less favorable. (example: Steinbach is included, Snee is not/// several bust DEs aren't included, etc.)

** Some of these players play at different positions now, but I listed them under the [position at which they were drafted

So without further ado:

2007

(3) WR: 23 Dwayne Bowe KC/// 27 Robert Meachem NO/// 30 Craig Davis SD/// 32 Anthony Gonzalez IND

(3) DE: 17 Jarvis Moss DEN/// 26 Anthony Spencer DAL

(3.5) DT: 16 Justin Harrell GB

(4) OT: 28 Joe Staley SF

(3) OG: 29 Ben Grubbs BAL

(3) CB: 18 Leon Hall CIN/// 20 Aaron Ross NYG

2006:

(5) WR: 25 Santonio Holmes PIT

(4) DE: 20 Tamba Hali KC/// 32 Mathias Kiwanuka NYG

(1) DT: 26 John McCargo BUF

OT: none

(3) OG: 23 Davin Joseph TB

(3) CB: 19 Antonio Cromartie SD/// 24 Jonathan Joseph CIN/// 31 Kelly Jennings SEA

2005:

(2) WR: 21 Matt Jones JAX/// 22 Mark Clayton BAL/// 27 Roddy White ATL

(4) DE: 18 Erasmus James MIN/// 20 Marcus Spears DAL/// 28 Luis Castillo SD

(2.5) DT: 16 Travis Johnson HOU/// 31 Mike Patterson PHI

(3.5) OT: 19 Alex Barron STL

(5) OG: 32 Logan Mankins NE

(4) CB: 23 Fabian Washington OAK/// 29 Marlin Jackson IND

2004:

(1) WR: 29 Michael Jenkins ATL/// 31 Rashaun Woods SF

(3) DE: 18 Will Smith NO/// 20 Kenechi Udeze MIN

(4) DT: 21 Vince Wilfork NE/// 23 Marcus Tubbs SEA

(4) OT: 16 Shawn Andrews/// 19 Vernon Carey MIA

OG: none

(3) CB: 25 Ahmad Carroll GB/// 28 Chris Gamble CAR

2003:

(2.5) WR: 17 Bryant Johnson AZ

(2.5) DE: 18 Calvin Pace AZ/// 32 Tyler Brayton OAK

(2) DT: 25 William Joseph NYG

(3) OT: 20 George Foster DEN/// 26 Kwame Harris SF

(5) *OG: 33 Eric Steinbach CIN

(3) CB: 28 Andre Woolfolk TEN/// 30 Sammy Davis SD/// 31 Nnamdi Asomugha

2002:

(3) WR: 19 Ashley Lelie DEN/// 20 Javon Walker GB

(3) DE: 22 Bryan Thomas NYJ/// 25 Charles Grant NO

(5) *DT: 15 Albert Haynesworth TEN

(4) OT: 29 Marc Colombo CHI

(4) OG: 30 Kendall Simmons PIT

(3.5) CB: 17 Phillip Buchanon OAK/// 26 Lito Sheppard PHI

Averages:

WR: 2.75 3-4 hits/ 13 total Success Rate: 27% (3.5/13)

DE: 3.25 6 (give or take)/ 13 total 46%

DT: 3 3/ 7 total 43%

OT: 3.7 5/ 7 total 71%

OG: 4 3-4/ 5 total 70%

CB: 3.25 7-8/ 14 total 54%

I will admit, before making this thread I have stated I believe the team will draft Branden Albert, the Guard out of UVA. However, I have said this only because he is, IMO, the best player that will be available to us at 21. I would be happy with several other players, including OT Williams, DE Merling if he falls, CB Rodgers-Cromartie, Aqib Talib, even WR Sweed, Kelly. The ratings are completely subjective, and I leave it up to my fellow ESers to agree or disagree, and I encourage you all to rate each position as you see fit and share your results as to what position is the best to draft in the lower half of the first round.

Results:

WRs, DEs, and CBs were taken the most. WR by far had the lowest success rate. DE and CB are about 50/50 hit on success, meaning either position is evenly hit or miss. Not many DTs were taken (I included them since Vinny was talking about drafting one) but they too appear to be 50/50. Tackles and Guards by far had the best success rate. I wanted to separate the two though, because everyone else has been lumping the O-linemen together. ***Had I changed Shawn Andrews to guard, since he is one now, AND had I included centers taken in this bracket (Chris Spencer, Jeff Faine, Nick Mangold) it would still maintain about the same success rate for O-linemen overall.

So, from this very lengthy thread, out of our current position needs, I would say drafting an O-lineman is the best way to go, specifically guard, or a tackle the team will convert to guard.

**** Now considering my second post in this thread (2 spots below) it would appear the success rate of WR drops even further into the 2nd round, and I assume it gets lower each round. This, along with the fact the majority of elite WRs in the NFL today are 1st round picks (per another thread on here), leads me to believe that WRs should only be taken with high 1st rounders or with lower round picks for "diamonds in the rough" (example: Colston). And even in the case of 1st round WRs, the WR has to be a phenom coming out of college (example: Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald) in order for the pick to be reasonable.

CB appears to have pretty solid value in the 2nd round, and quality O-lineman can be had in the 2nd round as well. DE appears to be almost the same success rate in the 2nd as in the 1st round, and I would venture to say given the varying rounds at which elite DEs have been taken recently (example: Kerney 1st rd, Osi 2nd rd, Allen 4th rd) that a quality DE can be found in most any round, and that postion is entirely dependant on the quality of your scouting department, and nowhere near as dependant on which round they are selected, in comparison to other positions which are more dependant (example: elite WR almost entirely dependant on upper half of 1st round). DTs should be taken in the lower rounds.

**UPDATE: Going off of post #7, my list of WRs taken in the 3rd round since 2000, I'd venture to say a WR in the 3rd is actually a better choice than one in the 1st, in terms of risk vs. reward.

Given all this info, here is what I would do in the draft this year for the Skins:

1st: OG Branden Albert

2nd: CB

3rd: WR Jordy Nelson

3rd: DE/DT

5th: DT/DE

6th: C/OT

7th: OT/C

7th: QB

7th: BPA (S or LB) I will choose later when I see a late gem I really like

[mistertim]

Why didn't you include Calvin Johnson? He had stats that were close to Bowe's and he was injured.

[elkabong82]

Here are the WRs, DEs, DTs, CBs, and O-lineman (all positions) taken in the 2nd round the past 4 drafts:

2007:

WR: Sidney Rice, Dwayne Jarrett, Steve Smith (NYG)

DE: Turk McBride, Tim Crowder, Victor Abiamiri, Ikaika Alama-Francis, Dan Bazuin

DT: Alan Branch

CB: Chris Houston, Eric Wright, Josh Wilson

OL: Aaron Sears, Justin Blalock, Tony Ugoh, Ryan Kalil, Samson Satele

2006:

WR: Chad Jackson, Sinorice Moss, Greg Jennings

DE: Darryl Tapp

DT: none

CB: Jimmy Williams, Cedric Griffin, Richard Marshall, Tim Jennings, Devin Hester

OL: Winston Justice, Deuce Latui, Daryn Colledge, Marcus McNeill, Ryan Cook, Andrew Whitworth, Chris Chester, Jeremy Trueblood

2005:

WR: Reggie Brown, Mark Bradley, Roscoe Parish, Terrence Murphy, Vincent Jackson

DE: Shaun Cody, Matt Roth, Jonathan Babineaux

DT: none

CB: Ronald Bartell, Darrent Williams, Justin Miller

OL: David Baas, Michael Roos, Marcus Johnson, Khalif Barnes, Adam Terry

2004:

WR: Devery Henderson, Darius Watts, Keary Colbert

DE: Igor Olshansky, Travis LaBoy, Antwan Odom, Marquise Hill

DT: Junior Siavii, Tank Johnson, Dwan Edwards

CB: Ricardo Colclough, Keiwan Ratliff, Shawntae Spencer

OL: Chris Snee, Jake Grove, Justin Smiley, Jacob Rogers,

* To me, it appears WR is still a low success rate, DT should be taken in the lower rounds, quality O-linemen can be found here though it is a much lower success rate, and DE is just about as hit-or-miss here as it is in the 1st, though miss is favored more here. CB appears to have the best group overall, and in my opinion 2nd round would be ideal for us in landing a nickle CB/ future starter.

[elkabong82]

Why didn't you include Calvin Johnson? He had stats that were close to Bowe's and he was injured.

Did you even read the whole thing? I clearly stated at the start that only the lower 1st round players would be listed, because those players reflect the talent that will be available to us. Calvin Johnson was taken 2nd overall, and college talent like that would never be available at 21. Top 10 players (coming out of college, not what they later developed into in the NFL) out of college aren't available to us and only skew the stats. I even put the pick numbers next to each players name.

Please read the whole thing next time.

[Chump Bailey]

So, from this very lengthy thread, out of our current position needs, I would say drafting an O-lineman is the best way to go, specifically guard, or a tackle the team will convert to guard.

Agree completely - this is all a pure albeit somewhat educated guessing game. Until the action starts and guys start coming off the board much is left up in the air. Albert likely is going to be the BPA and also a definite need. It's almost a no-brainer pick IMO and about as safe a pick as there is.

Guy's stocks are rising and falling depending on which site you go - DE Brian Johnston is a great example of this.

[terpfan]

Yeah the one thing I worry about with taking Sweed or Kelly in round 1 is that it seems like those late first round WRs always bust. And OL or even a DE would likely be a safer pick.

[elkabong82]

Just for fun, here is the list of WRs taken in the 3rd round since 2000. I list these because I have been advocating WR Jordy Nelson in the 3rd round.

2007: Jacoby Jones, Yamon Figurs, Laurent Robinson, Jason Hill, James Jones, Mike Walker, Paul Williams, Johnnie Lee Higgins

2006: Travis Wilson, Derek Hagan, Brandon Williams, Maurice Stovall, Willie Reid

2005: Courtney Roby, Chris Henry, Brandon Jones

2004: Dereck Hamilton, Bernard Berrian, Devard Darling

2003: Kelley Washington, Nate Burleson, Kevin Curtis, Billy McMullen

2002: Marquise Walker, Cliff Russell, Eric Crouch

2001: Steve Smith, Snoop Minnis

2000: Ron Dugans, Dez White, Chris Cole, Ron Dixon, Laverneus Coles, JaJuan Dawson, Darrell Jackson

Depending on your perceptions, and considering even a good slot receiver is a decent pick if taken in the 3rd round, as well as considering KR/PR contributions; I'd say 16 or so of these guys are hits, out of 36. That is about 45% success rate (again depending on your definition for success with a 3rd round WR).

Oh yeah, give me some Jordy Nelson in the 3rd round.

[elkabong82]

And here are DEs taken in the 3rd round since 2000:

2007: Quentin Moses, Charles Johnson, Ray McDonald

2006: Frostee Rucker, Jason Hatcher

2005: Justin Tuck, Vincent Burns

2004: Darion Scott, Anthony Hargrove

2003: Corey Redding, Kenny Peterson, Sam Williams, Andrew Williams

2002: Will Overstreet, Dennis Johnson

2001: Derrick Burgess, Reggie Hayward, DeLawrence Grant

2000: Byron Frisch

And here are the CBs taken in the same round and timespan:

2007: Usama Young, Marcus McCauley, Jonathan Wade, Dante Hughes

2006: Ashton Youboty

2005: Ellis Hobbs, Dominique Foxworth

2004: Joey Thomas, Keith Smith, Derrick Strait, Jeremy LeSueur, Rich Gardner

2003: Ricky Manning, Julian Battle

2002: Roe Williams, Joseph Jefferson, Derek Ross, Rashad Bauman

2001: Tay Cody, Eric Kelly, William James, Dwight Smith, Brock Williams

2000: Hank Poteat, Ben Kelly

** Given this info, I stand by assertion at the end of my op that we take CB in the 2nd, DO NOT take a CB in the 3rd, but rather a DE in the 3rd.

[Veretax]

The problem is that just because a position is a high % success, doesn't mean you should force a pick at that position in any round.

[RedskinDan0557]

EB nice work! I would assign different grades at a few spots, but overall I agree.

Here's a link to a draft positional analysis article from a couple of years ago:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/2006/04/24/ramblings/nfl-draft/3828/

Typically I'd say wait to draft a OG until the 3rd, where you can still get one of the top five guys, but Albert appears to be head and shoulders above the rest of the OG's in this year's draft, and his potential to play OT really puts him over the top for me.

Assuming DRC doesn't make it to our pick (which now appears to be certain,) I'm definitely on the Albert bandwagon.

I agree that there should be a couple of solid options for WR in the 3rd - Jordy Nelson, Jerome Simpson - to name a couple. Not to mention potential late round flyers like Adrian Arrington and Marcus Monk.

I'd like to see the Skins take a WR in the 3rd and another one later on in the draft (6th/7th) or as UDFA.

[elkabong82]

Given this information in the thread now, and me looking over draft prospects and their projected rounds, here is the mock I have come up with, let me know what you guys think:

1st: Branden Albert, OG, UVA: excellent pick, prob. BPA at #21, the Skins solve their biggest problems from the preceding year, O-line was def. one of them.

2nd: Patrick Lee, CB, Auburn. That's right, another Auburn CB. At 6'0" 195 lbs and a 4.41 40, he is physical and has a nice burst and would complement our bruising secondary. 55 tackles, 4 INTs, 1 FF senior year.

3rd: Jordy Nelson, WR, Kansas State. He should fall to us, especially considering the deep 2nd round WR talent ithis year. 6'2", 213 lbs, 122 rec, 1606 yds, 11 TDs senior year.

3rd comp.: Wallace Gilberry, DE, Alabama: he might fall later due to his less than ideal size and height ( 6'2", 268 lbs. However, he might be worth a reach with the comp pick if the Skins don't feel he could be had by the time we pick again in the 5th round. The guy is all motor, a real blue chipper. Like Flutie, he makes up for physical lack with heart and determination. 80 tackles, 10 sacks, 2 FF senior year. Can rush the passer and stop the run.

5th: Frank Okam, DT, Texas , big guy at 6'4" and 347 lbs. 322 lbs, is projected to go around the 5th, and could be that big pocket-collapsing DT we are looking for to complement Montgmorery down the road. If he is off the board, Ahtyba Rubin, out of Iowa State is 6'2" 315 lbs and a physical freak. I'd love Red Bryant 6'4" 347 lbs out of Texas A&M but I've been reading he might not get past the 4th round, or even the 3rd.

6th: Jordy Lipsey, C, UVA. Guy has potential, is projected around here, started all last year and was in most of the time, and would essentially complement Albert down the road. Chemistry is very important in the O-line, so why not grab the guy who played alongside your 1st round pick?

7th: Tyler Polumbus, T, Colorado, I checked this guy out as he was mentioned as a 7th round steal by a poster on here. The guy is fraking huge at 6'8"300 lbs.

7th: Nick Hill, QB, So. Illinois, 6'3", 210 lbs, He's DII, but his senior year was 258 of 381 for 3175 yards, 28 TDs to 7 INTs, had 4 rush TDs. He is a left-armed QB considered to be very accurate, and could function well in a WCO (IMO).

* Lipsey and Polombus should be switched.

*Update: Goofed slightly on projections, switch Okam and Gilberry.

[CRobi21]

Good post elka. I'd take that Draft in a minute, maybe even a second, whichever comes first.

[RWJ]

7th: Nick Hill, QB, So. Illinois, 6'3", 210 lbs, He's DII, but his senior year was 258 of 381 for 3175 yards, 28 TDs to 7 INTs, had 4 rush TDs. He is a left-armed QB considered to be very accurate, and could function well in a WCO (IMO).

* Lipsey and Polombus should be switched.

Interesting prospect. Never saw this players name/profile before. If Cerrato/Zorn know about him, which they should Zorn might have a soft spot since he is a lefty also. Who knows....

[Nighthawk]

Given all this info, here is what I would do in the draft this year for the Skins:

1st: OG Branden Albert

2nd: CB

3rd: WR Jordy Nelson

3rd: DE

5th: DT

6th: C

7th: OT

7th: QB

7th: BPA (S or LB)

This is amazing to me because the two players you've listed are the two players I know for sure that I want the Redskins to pick in exactly the rounds I hope their picked.

[Nighthawk]

2nd: Patrick Lee, CB, Auburn. That's right, another Auburn CB. At 6'0" 195 lbs and a 4.41 40, he is physical and has a nice burst and would complement our bruising secondary. 55 tackles, 4 INTs, 1 FF senior year.

Wow, make that three players that I know I want and hope the Redskins pick in the exact same rounds I would pick them.

Good job! I hope you're reading the minds of our FO and not just mine.

[elkabong82]

This is amazing to me because the two players you've listed are the two players I know for sure that I want the Redskins to pick in exactly the rounds I hope their picked.

I've noticed a lot of people on here favoring Albert in the 1st, and Nelson in the 3rd. After researching the two, I came to be in agreement with those people. Funny thing is, after doing the research I put in this thread, my data actually supports the two players being drafted where we favor them.

I won't mind if we skip on Nelson or Albert, so long as we still get quality players at those spots. My picks are my ideals, but it doesn't mean they are set in stone. However, I'm going to be pissed as **** if some team reaches for either of these guys before where they are projected to fall, which is not out of the realm of possibility.

[elkabong82]

Wow, make that three players that I know I want and hope the Redskins pick in the exact same rounds I would pick them.

Good job! I hope you're reading the minds of our FO and not just mine.

That is crazy. I would love Antoine Cason over Lee though, but he is projected to go early 2nd round, and Lee is the best CB, IMO, projected to go around our spot in the second round. In fact, all my picks are based off of the best player available according to the best postion-success rate in each round and the best player available projected to go around each of our picks.

[mi6]

Give me Brandon Albert, and Jordy Nelson ... 2 sure picks that would have an immediate impact on the Skins. The rest are okay. Don't like the QB. Need to go higher as Jason hasn't sold anyone that he is a constant fixture. He has been time to develop, and has yet to deliver. Even the NY Giant's QB took them to the promised land, and won!

[fansince62]

nice post 82.

do any priroities change if one assumes worst case for injuries to Rogers, Washington, McIntosh, Jansen and Thomas?

[elkabong82]

Give me Brandon Albert, and Jordy Nelson ... 2 sure picks that would have an immediate impact on the Skins. The rest are okay. Don't like the QB. Need to go higher as Jason hasn't sold anyone that he is a constant fixture. He has been time to develop, and has yet to deliver. Even the NY Giant's QB took them to the promised land, and won!

If Campbell had an injury history, I'd agree we should draft a QB a bit higher as an insurance policy (similar to what Philly did with Kolb). But seeing as JC's only major injury was a result of sub-par (to put it lightly) O-line protection, I'd say a project QB in the 6th or 7th is fine behind JC and Collins. We have much more immediate needs than a 3rd string QB.

As for JC's production, why is it so difficult for seemingly half the board to admit the injuries to the O-line dircetly affected Campbell's production. His first full season, and he doesn't have adequate time to make reads in many games. Despite this, he still looked good at times. JC is our franchise QB, and will be for the next 2 seasons at least, given the new WCO system being employed. The sooner some of the members on this board come to realize this, the better off we'll be.

Eli has started 3 1/2 seasons, JC about 1 1/2. Let's look at their '07 stats:

Eli: 297 of 529 (56.1%) 3,336 yds (6.3 avg) 23 TD 20 INTs sack 27 PR: 73.9

JC: 250 of 417 (60%) 2,700 yds (6.5 avg) 12 TD 11 INT sack 21 PR: 77.6

Eli played in 3 more games, actually had a 1000+ yd receiver, and wasn't missing half his O-line starters.

Let's give JC a valid chance to prove himself, and actually consider that other players have an impact on the performance of the QB.

[elkabong82]

nice post 82.

do any priroities change if one assumes worst case for injuries to Rogers, Washington, McIntosh, Jansen and Thomas?

Tyer said Rocky and Rogers COULD be ready by the start of the season according to their improvements in rehab. However, I operated under the assumption we will have Springs and Smoot starting CB, and that Torrence, Eubanks and the 2nd rounder will battle for the nickle. And I think that scenario works, even if one assumed Rogers would miss ALL of '08.

Assuming the worst for McIntosh and Washington depends on your definition of their worst case scenario. The feasible worst case scenario is that Rocky isn't ready until mid-season, and Washington gets injured during the season. This would mean drafting a OLB becomes a much higher priority, and I would scrap Gilberry at 3rd comp. pick hoping he fall to the later rounds(which according to reports isn't out of the realm of possibility much like what happened with Montgomery I believe), and substitute the best OLB available then, for example Marcus Howard out of Georgia or Xavier Adibi out of VA Tech for some local talent could both be available at the end of the 3rd.

Albert would take over for Thomas if the worst were to happen, unless he beats Kendall for the starting LG spot, in which case Kendall would replace Thomas.

If Jansen becomes a problem, I'd still start Heyer there, and work Polumbus in. In other words, the worst case scenarios for Jansen and Thomas would not prompt me to change where I take O-linemen. Albert in the 1st takes care of concerns, and if Jansen also went down again, we would have to rely on our depth, just as any other team would.

[TheLongshot]

As for JC's production, why is it so difficult for seemingly half the board to admit the injuries to the O-line dircetly affected Campbell's production. His first full season, and he doesn't have adequate time to make reads in many games. Despite this, he still looked good at times. JC is our franchise QB, and will be for the next 2 seasons at least, given the new WCO system being employed. The sooner some of the members on this board come to realize this, the better off we'll be.

While I agree with the basic premise that the kid deserves the benefit of the doubt, I disagree that his performance was affected directly by the play of the O-Line last year. The main argument against that is that Collins played behind the same line and looked much better than Campbell. Campbell actually had pretty good protection for most of the year back there, but his throws were often not as sharp as they should have been, often requiring the receivers to make great catches, and not really have time to do much with the ball. Also, his propensity to fumble didn't have all that much to do with the line protection.

Now, there are some indirect consequences of the injuries, like having to keep receivers in to block to help out the replacements. Also, the running game also suffered because of the injuries. As I said, tho, Collins had to deal with the same thing and still was able to succeed.

All I'm saying is that Campbell is still a work-in-progress, which isn't unusual for a 3rd year QB who just started his first full season.

As for the rest of your thread, really good work. It pretty much quantifies why I don't really want to see a WR as our first pick (not to mention that none of the WRs really excite me. I am hoping Albert will be there because of his versatility.

Jason

[AFskinsfan]

im a big fan of that Jordy Nelson kid. I think He may be a good fit. I know he didnt have great numbers until his senior year, but man is he athletic! He could be our Wes Welker. He kind of reminds me of that guy that used to play on the Jets that retired after getting his bell rung too many times. He was very dependable.

[elkabong82]

While I agree with the basic premise that the kid deserves the benefit of the doubt, I disagree that his performance was affected directly by the play of the O-Line last year. The main argument against that is that Collins played behind the same line and looked much better than Campbell. Campbell actually had pretty good protection for most of the year back there, but his throws were often not as sharp as they should have been, often requiring the receivers to make great catches, and not really have time to do much with the ball. Also, his propensity to fumble didn't have all that much to do with the line protection.

Now, there are some indirect consequences of the injuries, like having to keep receivers in to block to help out the replacements. Also, the running game also suffered because of the injuries. As I said, tho, Collins had to deal with the same thing and still was able to succeed.

All I'm saying is that Campbell is still a work-in-progress, which isn't unusual for a 3rd year QB who just started his first full season.

As for the rest of your thread, really good work. It pretty much quantifies why I don't really want to see a WR as our first pick (not to mention that none of the WRs really excite me. I am hoping Albert will be there because of his versatility.

Jason

You make valid points, but it also bears mentioning that the team as a whole was playing inspired for 21 and Collins was starting for the majority of that. Also, Collins having a much deeper knowledge of the system allowed him to get the ball out quicker since he could make quicker reads than Jason, so the O-line's less-than-stellar pass protection wasn't as much of a factor. However, even Collins wasn't completely immune, being sacked and fumbling, and it appears the same things affecting JC caught up to Collins in the Seattle playoff game.

In 13 games, JC was sacked 21 times, an average of 1.6 times a game. Collins in 4 games was sacked 7 times, an average of 1.75 times a game. Collins fumbled 4 times, or once a game. JC fumbled 13 times in 13 games, or once a game as well. I point this out because I have maintained the O-line negatively impacted JC. These stats show that, contrary to some beliefs, not mine, the O-line started playing better with Collins. This isn't true. The difference was indeed the QB, not to mention the improved play of other players on the field, specifically the WRs who all of a sudden stopped the incessant drops down the stretch. Again though, you could see the ball was getting out quicker with Collins, and IMO that can be attributed directly to his experience in the system. There is no doubt in my mind if JC can progress his decsion making to the speed of Collins he can perform just as well as Collins did down the stretch. Not to mention JC, despite the O-line problems and WR drops, still had a 60% completion rate. Collins was at 63.8% in the 4 game stretch.

JC was off at times, and isn't "there" yet. But IMO he is awfully close, and some of the "extreme" criticism he gets on here is unwarranted. And at the very least JC is nowhere near so bad that we should consider taking a QB in the first 3 rounds.

Back on topic, I'm loving just how many ESers are in favor of Branden Albert. At the very least it is an admission that our O-line injuries were a serious problem last year, and did bear at least some effect on the run and pass games (though from some posters you wouldn't know it, not you though).

[gutlead74]

just posting for the Jordy reel in my sig!!!