Cerrato: Our Position Needs and Their Overall Early Draft Success Rates!!!

[Voice_of_Reason]

This is a great threak, and elk, that's amazing amounts of research and thought. Well done.

The only thing I would comment on is that Vinny has said repeatedly that while they want a DE, the more pressing need on the D-Line is a pass rushing DT. His logic is that they got 10+ sacks from both sides of the line, but only 2 from the middle. So if they're looking for "that guy" I'm going to guess they're going to use an early round (1st or 2nd) on a DT if one is available.

I have to throw my :2cents: on JC. Elk, I think that you're absolutely right. I have been comparing JC's QB numbers to other QBs starting their first full year (Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, McNabb, others) and they are actually not too bad. Probably what hurt him in the eyes of the fans the most was the INT in Dallas followed by the 2 INTs at the end of the Tampa game. A couple other notes:

1. JC missed a good bit of camp because he got hurt in the Pitt. pre-season game. I think he only played in 2 quarters (or about that) of pre-season.

2. His WRs shuffeled in and out all year as well. Moss and ARE were hurt and didn't practice for most of the early part of the seaosn, and GOT HEALTHY when TC started playing. Even though the WRs played, they didn't practice, and that's going to throw off timing with a young QB.

Just my thoughts.

[elkabong82]

This is a great threak, and elk, that's amazing amounts of research and thought. Well done.

The only thing I would comment on is that Vinny has said repeatedly that while they want a DE, the more pressing need on the D-Line is a pass rushing DT. His logic is that they got 10+ sacks from both sides of the line, but only 2 from the middle. So if they're looking for "that guy" I'm going to guess they're going to use an early round (1st or 2nd) on a DT if one is available.

Interesting stuff there. I know Vinny is interested in acquiring a 3-technique DT, a pocket-collapsing guy in the draft. I didn't know he wasn't as high on DE. I mean, I figured they liked Wilson, and we are all excited about him putting up 4 sacks in the limited time he played, but I also figured he was a situational guy at best, and Daniels rotating between DT and DE is a sign we are going for DE. I could be wrong on this, and we very well could be looking DT early.

However, Vinny has said before that DTs can be found in the later rounds. This team is really tough to gauge as far as where their priorities lay amongst the need positions this offseason. I know we signed Askew, and it appears there is a bit of a logjam at DT with Griffin, Monty, Gholston, Boschetti, Askew, and Daniels switching in on occasion, not to mention Alexander will be in and out again. I imagine Askew will be practice squad material, and Boschetti will probably be cut. Who knows, maybe it is a sign Griffin will be traded, but I doubt it as it would leave too much uncertainty at DT. Gholston is a back-up, and Daniels and Alexander are situational guys. Griff and Monty are the bonafide starters, so I would imagine a high draft pick DT would fit into a regular rotation with Griff and Monty.

So, that being said, let's take a look at the top prospects at DT (cuz if it is a higher priority I imagine either the 1st or 2nd will be used on one).

1) Glenn Dorsey, Louisiana State

2) Sedrick Ellis, USC

3) Kentwan Balmer, North Carolina

4) Dre Moore, Maryland

5) Pat Sims, Auburn

6) Trevor Laws, Notre Dame

7) DeMario Pressley, North Carolina State

For the 1st round, Dorsey and Ellis will be gone. None of the other guys there would be worth, IMO, a 1st rounder, though a lot of mocks have him going in the first. Buges has talked with Albert, so he is on our radar, and since we follow BPA in the early rounds, I have to believe we'd take Albert over Balmer following BPA. Though an argument for Balmer, 6'4", 308 lbs., in the 1st could be made.

From this, if DT is a high priority, more than likely it would be taken in the 2nd round. Balmer won't be available by our pick, and most mocks have Moore (6'4", 305 lbs.) going before our pick as well. If Moore fell to us in the 2nd, and this priority for DT is true, the Skins pick up the local guy in a heart beat. However, he has strength concerns, which you don't want when you're looking for a pocket-collapser. That leaves Pat Sims, as the other 2 DTs on the list are projected 3rd rounders. Sims is 6'3", 312 lbs., but his stats haven't been ideal for the type of DT we'd be looking for.

In other words, after Dorsey and Ellis, Balmer is the only viable DT worth taking on day 1. Balmer is a pocket-collapser according to his scouting reports, but again, at 21 he is a reach. ** Now, if the team trades down, which could be a wise move given the depth in the 2nd and 3rd rounds of our need positions, they could get Balmer at a better value of where they pick. The only problem is 2 teams below us, the Jags and Seahawks, could very well snatch Balmer. The other problem is there might not be any players available teams are willing to trade up to 21 to land, especially due to the depth in the 2nd and 3rd rounds in this years draft class.

In all likelihood, the safe bet is standing pat and using your pick in the first, and given the conservative approach this offseason, I don't see much reason to believe this team will trade out of 21. If it wasn't for the fact some teams are stupid and make reaches instead of going BPA in the 1st round, I'd completely advocate trading down and landing Balmer with an early 2nd rounder acquired in trade. But the guy simply isn't worth the money and pick at 21. This could change after prodays and workouts, but us going by BPA makes it very doubtful.

IMO, (and anyone is free to disagree with this, because I've already said a valid argument could be made in reaching for Balmer with the 21st pick), the team will continue the philosophy of drafting D-line after day 1, and look for a massive DT in the later rounds. Following this reasoning is why I have advocated Frank Okam, Red Bryant, or Athyba Rubin in the 5th round. Unfortunately it is looking like Okam and Red are starting to project into the 3rd rounds. Another intriguing player is Marcus Harrison. He initially would have been a day 1 pick at 6'3" 317 lbs, and 76 tackles his senior year, but surgery on his ACL and a drug possesion charge have led to most experts believing he could drop as far as the 6th round. I still think of the 3 DTs I listed above one will drop to us in the 5th round, and IMO it will be Okam because of weight issues (he's 347lbs, but projects as a great NT in a 3-4 or the type of DT we are looking for.) Size issues allowed us to land Blades in the 6th, when he was initially projected as a 2nd rounder, so my fingers are crossed with Okam. Offseason conditioning can drop the excess poundage. Though I should mention Red's status has been dropping recently, and some experts have said he could be the one to slip.

** UPDATE: I've edited my mock slightly. Okam is being projected in the 3rd, and Wallace Gilberry is being projected to indeed slip to the 5th, combined with Vinny's statements on DT preference over DE brought to light in this thread, I have swiched Okam and Gilberry's positions where they are drafted.

[Going Commando]

I like your mock draft, but it seems rigid in the positions you are looking for especially after the first two rounds. I think the team will identify a gaggle of players and position combinations to allow for all of the contingencies that draft day will bring. Why don't you identify a set of possible solid picks for each round like identifying a first round such as "branden albert, aqib talib, some other corner... etc." And after a certain point, I believe you have to significantly devalue positional need in favor of best player available.

That said, I would be really happy with a draft that brought Albert and Nelson into the fold. I haven't heard anything about Wallace Gilberry. Will Trevor Laws possibly be around by that time? I've heard good things about him. Also, I haven't heard anything about Patrick Lee really either. What are some other corners that could be around at that point? I agree that our two biggest needs that hopefully will be addressed in rounds 1 and 2 are at Corner and Offensive Line. What are your thoughts about holding on the guard in round 1 and going for a guy like Roy Schuenning or Chilo Rachal later?

[TheLongshot]

Back on topic, I'm loving just how many ESers are in favor of Branden Albert. At the very least it is an admission that our O-line injuries were a serious problem last year, and did bear at least some effect on the run and pass games (though from some posters you wouldn't know it, not you though).

I think it is more an admission that our line is getting up there in years and that some young players need to start coming in. Considering that Kendall is really only a short term fix that will expire at the end of the 2009 season, drafting his replacement this year is probably a priority.

As for your DT analysis, it is pretty good. Just a thing, tho. Don't assume that anyone who was on the team last year is a lock for making the team this year. They all are probably going to have to earn their way on, and Griffin isn't an exception, since his contract doesn't protect him from getting cut.

Jason

[elkabong82]

I like your mock draft, but it seems rigid in the positions you are looking for especially after the first two rounds. I think the team will identify a gaggle of players and position combinations to allow for all of the contingencies that draft day will bring. Why don't you identify a set of possible solid picks for each round like identifying a first round like "branden albert, aqib talib, some other corner... etc."

That said, I would be really happy with a draft that brought in Albert and Nelson into the fold. I haven't heard anything about Wallace Gilberry. Will Trevor Laws possibly be around by that time? I've heard good things about him. Also, I haven't heard anything about Patrick Lee really either. What are some other corners that could be around at that point? I agree that our two biggest needs that hopefully will be addressed in rounds 1 and 2 are at Corner and Offensive Line. What are your thoughts about holding on the guard in round 1 and going for a guy like Roy Schuenning or Chilo Rachal later?

I avoided doing a multiple mock because they are a pain, and I could do a bunch of them. The one mock I put up, and that is in my sig, is based off my beliefs in the team's philosophies, combined with success rates of varying positions in the early rounds. I can give you a couple mock scenarios, but the later rounds won't change much. So I will list them according to us going with either DE, DT, or CB in the 1st, and addressing the other needs after that in each round. I don't include WR in the 1st because it is not going to happen. The success rate is way too low, and we draft by Best Player Availble in the 1st round, and that won't likely be a WR given the low success rate.

Other than the one in my sig:

One:

1st: Kentwan Balmer, DT, North Carolina : he is a reach here, but is a pocket collapser we are looking for, and will be availble here

2nd: Patrick Lee, CB, Auburn, out of the CBs most likely to be available here, he is the best among the requirements of CBs in our system (physical with a burst, smart, insitinctive) *I will provide a link to a thread where I posted the top CB prospects and which ones would likely be available to us in the 1st and 2nd round

http://www.extremeskins.com/forums/showthread.php?t=242488 , post #9

3rd: Jordy Nelson, WR, Kansas State, I will not waver from this, as he will in all likelihood be available here, and our need for a WCO WR can't be overlooked here when a 6'2" kid with 1660 yds receiving senior year is staring at you.

3rd comp.: OL: If Schuenning is still available, go for it, he is one of the better O-linemen in the draft and would be a great pick-up here. Otherwise I still go O-lineman, but the best one available regardless of where on the line they play.

5th: With DT being solved, I'd say this pick is used on either a DE or OLB pass rush specialist. Wallace Gilberry could very well fall here, and Rudolph Hardie, Howard, 6'2", 270, 4.77 40 could be worth a look also.

6th-7th: I stand by my picks in my sig.

Two:

1st: DE: Phillip Merling or Calais Campbell, though wither is a mistake IMO

2nd-3rd: same as Scenario One

5th: Big DT, like I said earlier, Okam or Red Bryant could fall here, otherwise look for a 300+ pound guy.

6th and later: same as sig

Three:

1st: CB: Avion Cason is a reach here, but I would understand it, Aqib Talib and Brandon Flowers are the only other CBs that would be feasible here.

2nd: DE: If Calais Campbell falls this far, take him here. Lawrence Jackson would be a reach, but you could make a valid argument for him here.

3rd: Jordy Nelson, WR

3rd comp: OL, as in One, Schuenning or BPA among OL

5th: Same DT as in Two

6th-7th: same as in sig

[TheLongshot]

So, no revision of picking an OL high if they don't select Albert in the first round? I don't know if I can agree with that.

Jason

[elkabong82]

I think it is more an admission that our line is getting up there in years and that some young players need to start coming in. Considering that Kendall is really only a short term fix that will expire at the end of the 2009 season, drafting his replacement this year is probably a priority.

As for your DT analysis, it is pretty good. Just a thing, tho. Don't assume that anyone who was on the team last year is a lock for making the team this year. They all are probably going to have to earn their way on, and Griffin isn't an exception, since his contract doesn't protect him from getting cut.

Jason

Duly noted. I've said trading Griff isn't out of the realm of possibility, here and in other threads. However, I think the team will still want him around until whichever rookie they draft here (if they do) can replace him. Otherwise you have a lot of green guys and back-ups at a position the team wants to improve.

[Mercuryrising]

I've noticed a lot of people on here favoring Albert in the 1st, and Nelson in the 3rd. After researching the two, I came to be in agreement with those people. Funny thing is, after doing the research I put in this thread, my data actually supports the two players being drafted where we favor them.

I won't mind if we skip on Nelson or Albert, so long as we still get quality players at those spots. My picks are my ideals, but it doesn't mean they are set in stone. However, I'm going to be pissed as **** if some team reaches for either of these guys before where they are projected to fall, which is not out of the realm of possibility.

First off, great post to start this thread. Thanks for the work you put into it!

I really don't see Jordy Nelson falling to the late 3rd round. Anyone who watches tape on the kid loves him, and every team has scouts watching the tape.

[TheLongshot]

Duly noted. I've said trading Griff isn't out of the realm of possibility, here and in other threads. However, I think the team will still want him around until whichever rookie they draft here (if they do) can replace him. Otherwise you have a lot of green guys and back-ups at a position the team wants to improve.

Montgomery and Golston aren't so green now, since they have been on this team for two years, with Golston starting most of his first season, and Montgomery his second. Considering that Griffin hasn't been much of a playmaker since his first season with the team, he is vulnerable, particularly if there is a lot of improvement from the players we have in training camp.

Course, it could work the other way, that one of those guys could regress and they could potentially lose a roster spot. As I said, those positions could be wide open for a rookie to step in and make an impact. I see no one who deserves a pass.

Jason

[elkabong82]

So, no revision of picking an OL high if they don't select Albert in the first round? I don't know if I can agree with that.

Jason

Not sure I follow. I'm operating off the basis guard is a bigger need than OT. Schuenning in the 3rd would be a great pick up, but if you mean list other O-linemen we could take in the first couple rounds then:

1st: Jeff Otah, OT, Pittsburgh/// Sam Baker, OT, USC though he likely won't fall to 21/// Gosder Cherilus, OT, Boston College or Carl Nick, OT, Nebraska, but both seem to be reaches at 21/// *Albert is the only guard in the draft who would warrant a 1st rounder

2nd: Christopher Williams, OT, Vanderbilt, he won't fall to us at 51, BUT*** Buges has talked with this kid quite a bit, and an ideal trade down would allow us to snag this guy with an early 2nd rounder, and we could grab Schuenning, OG, with the 3rd we'd prob. get from a trade down (trade 1st for early 2nd and 3rd rounder), and still be able to land Jordy Nelson and a DT/DE in the 3rd too. Calais Campbell falling, or Kenny PHillips, could faciliatate that trade.

Otherwise, G Jordan Grimes from Purdue could be a possibility, or OT Anthony Collins, Kansas.

[elkabong82]

Montgomery and Golston aren't so green now, since they have been on this team for two years, with Golston starting most of his first season, and Montgomery his second. Considering that Griffin hasn't been much of a playmaker since his first season with the team, he is vulnerable, particularly if there is a lot of improvement from the players we have in training camp.

Course, it could work the other way, that one of those guys could regress and they could potentially lose a roster spot. As I said, those positions could be wide open for a rookie to step in and make an impact. I see no one who deserves a pass.

Jason

Agree completely.

[elkabong82]

First off, great post to start this thread. Thanks for the work you put into it!

I really don't see Jordy Nelson falling to the late 3rd round. Anyone who watches tape on the kid loves him, and every team has scouts watching the tape.

I know, his stock is rising, but he still is projected in the third because the top 3 WRs in the draft (Limas Sweed, Malcolm Kelly, Desean Jackson) are all projected as low first rounders. After them, there are about 13 other WRs projected ahead of, or around, Nelson. These guys are:

4) Devin Thomas, Michigan State, low 1st/ high 2nd

5) Mario Manningham, Michigan, low 1st/ high 2nd

6) James Hardy, Indiana, high 2nd

7) Early Doucet, LSU, slipped to high 2nd

8) Andre Caldwell, Florida, mid 2nd

9) Adrian Arrington, Michigan, mid 2nd

10) Earl Bennett, Vanderbilt, low 2nd

11) Adarious Bowman, Oklahoma State, low 2nd/ high 3rd

12) Donnie Avery, Houston, high 3rd

13) Lavelle Hawkins, California, high 3rd

14) Eddie Royal, VA Tech, mid 3rd

15) Dexter Jackson, Appalaichan State, mid 3rd

16) DJ Hall, Alabama, low 3rd

and then Jordy Nelson, followed by:

18) Harry Douglas, Louisville, high 4th

19) Jerome Simpson, Coastal Carolina, early 4th

20) Keenan Burton, Kentucky, 4th

These players still have a month to rise and fall, but as you can see we will have a very nice crop of WRs from which to choose if we wait until the 3rd round. Jordy Nelson seems to be the best player likely to be available when we pick, in terms of the WR class.

[Going Commando]

I agree in that I do not think that the team will draft a WR or a DL in the first round. An incredible scenario of events would have to happen for them to spend the pick there such as one of the stud dl's plummeting. I feel that the 1st rounder will be spent most likely on a CB, following that, an OT or an OG. If Chris Williams falls to #21, I wouldn't be suprised to see the team take him if the good corners are gone. I've heard really good things about him. A draft that brought in Williams, Schuenning, and Nelson I feel would be a fantastic success (unless all of the prospect analysis is wrong which could be the case). Then, if a good cornerback could be thrown into that mix, I feel like that would be a coup and a front runner for status as the team's best draft of the decade.

[texasthunder]

Great post Elk !!!!

Its nice to read a thread based on facts and research, not just on hormonal love of a guy because he can run a 4.4.

And have to agree with most all of your ideas. Especially like the Nelson kid, all the scouts and reporters that watch football fulltime say he is an excellent fit for the WCO.

I think the fill for the 3rd QB will probally come from the June cuts. Somebody seasoned that can fill in if something happens. I think drafting a young qb to groom this year is gonna be tough. Coach Zorn will be spending alot of time with JC to get him ready, the new kid may not get much help. Just a thought.

Again- Thanks for the research.

[fansince62]

While I agree with the basic premise that the kid deserves the benefit of the doubt, I disagree that his performance was affected directly by the play of the O-Line last year. The main argument against that is that Collins played behind the same line and looked much better than Campbell. Campbell actually had pretty good protection for most of the year back there, but his throws were often not as sharp as they should have been, often requiring the receivers to make great catches, and not really have time to do much with the ball. Also, his propensity to fumble didn't have all that much to do with the line protection.

Now, there are some indirect consequences of the injuries, like having to keep receivers in to block to help out the replacements. Also, the running game also suffered because of the injuries. As I said, tho, Collins had to deal with the same thing and still was able to succeed.

All I'm saying is that Campbell is still a work-in-progress, which isn't unusual for a 3rd year QB who just started his first full season.

As for the rest of your thread, really good work. It pretty much quantifies why I don't really want to see a WR as our first pick (not to mention that none of the WRs really excite me. I am hoping Albert will be there because of his versatility.

Jason

Jason...Collins failed miserably (some of us would even say predictably) in a spectacular fashion when under pressure (see Seattle). it's a matter of perspective I guess....many of us feel the blocking Campbell got...say in the GB game for instance...wasn't on a par with what Collins received in...say...the Minny game. Campbell does have mechanical issues to fix and his passes did tend to sail high with our smurf receiving corps. that said....when the blocking was good as it was in the Lions game...he did quite well.

[fansince62]

Great post Elk !!!!

Its nice to read a thread based on facts and research, not just on hormonal love of a guy because he can run a 4.4.

And have to agree with most all of your ideas. Especially like the Nelson kid, all the scouts and reporters that watch football fulltime say he is an excellent fit for the WCO.

I think the fill for the 3rd QB will probally come from the June cuts. Somebody seasoned that can fill in if something happens. I think drafting a young qb to groom this year is gonna be tough. Coach Zorn will be spending alot of time with JC to get him ready, the new kid may not get much help. Just a thought.

Again- Thanks for the research.

agree...nice posts by you and 82!

[TheLongshot]

Jason...Collins failed miserably (some of us would even say predictably) in a spectacular fashion when under pressure (see Seattle). it's a matter of perspective I guess....many of us feel the blocking Campbell got...say in the GB game for instance...wasn't on a par with what Collins received in...say...the Minny game. Campbell does have mechanical issues to fix and his passes did tend to sail high with our smurf receiving corps. that said....when the blocking was good as it was in the Lions game...he did quite well.

And Campbell probably would have failed just as spectacularly. Considering how screwed up Seattle got us in the first half, no QB was going to find success. As for the interceptions, Seattle knew they had time on their side and we needed to take risks to get back into the game.

GB was a big exception to any other game during the year, since we pretty much had to use all of our depth, and the results were predictibly mediocre. I certainly don't blame Campbell for that. But, there are plenty of times when Campbell didn't execute. Tampa Bay comes to mind. Also, he really has to get a hold on that fumbling problem, because it killed us in a few games.

Jason

[nimblehippo]

One of the best posts around at the moment, had been saying that i thought it was the case, but the data backs it up. Was reading lately that Howie Long reckons there is no way Albert makes it to round 2, as Skins, Steelers, Seahawks, 49ers and Chargers are all interested. As for where it goes after there, forecasting the middle and late rounds is a bit of a lottery. If Wr is ignored early on then we'll get Nelson in round 3, if Wrs do go earlyish, then other positions will be good value. The question I ask, is if we miss our no1 target, whats the backup plan. If Nelson goes before our 3rd pick, are there other recievers we will be happy to take. If we don't go Guard in 1 or 2, many mock drafts have 3-4 guards going before our 3rd round pick, and the depth at guard is not good this year (or so i hear). I am confident that we can draft a reciever that can contribute for us with our 3rd round pick or suplemental. With our picks (expecting a 3rd suplemental) we can take 4 of (OG, DT, CB, WR and DE) by the end of the 3rd. With the draft being seemingly strong at cb, wr and the big drop off of DE talent, I think the proposed mock drafts in this thread look amazing, and even if a particular player like Nelson isn't available, we can still get a good draft, due to where the strength in depth lies.

[Smoot Point Really]

Nice jooorb, EB82...

I like the analysis. One thing I believe contributes to lower success rates for those positions is that teams tend to "reach" on some positions (DL, QB, CB, WR) based entirely on potential. Other positions that are deemed easier to fill (OL, Safety, LB, RB) have much higher success rates because teams aren't interested in simply drafting someone based on potential alone. Teams will believe that if a player has potential, they can coach him into being a great player and this doesn't always happen.

IMO, you draft the BPA in every round... no matter what position (unless it's QB or RB in the first round or so and you already have a franchise player at that position... or a special teamer)... These players you hope to be Redskins forever, then you fill holes in Free Agency.

[elkabong82]

One of the best posts around at the moment, had been saying that i thought it was the case, but the data backs it up. Was reading lately that Howie Long reckons there is no way Albert makes it to round 2, as Skins, Steelers, Seahawks, 49ers and Chargers are all interested. As for where it goes after there, forecasting the middle and late rounds is a bit of a lottery. If Wr is ignored early on then we'll get Nelson in round 3, if Wrs do go earlyish, then other positions will be good value. The question I ask, is if we miss our no1 target, whats the backup plan. If Nelson goes before our 3rd pick, are there other recievers we will be happy to take. If we don't go Guard in 1 or 2, many mock drafts have 3-4 guards going before our 3rd round pick, and the depth at guard is not good this year (or so i hear). I am confident that we can draft a reciever that can contribute for us with our 3rd round pick or suplemental. With our picks (expecting a 3rd suplemental) we can take 4 of (OG, DT, CB, WR and DE) by the end of the 3rd. With the draft being seemingly strong at cb, wr and the big drop off of DE talent, I think the proposed mock drafts in this thread look amazing, and even if a particular player like Nelson isn't available, we can still get a good draft, due to where the strength in depth lies.

If Nelson does go before our 3rd round pick, there are other talented receivers which should be available. Check post #37, a couple spots up on this page, I put a list of the top 20 WR prospects currently, and detailed where each one is projected to go.

If we don't land Albert, there are a couple good guards to still be had in the 3rd round in Schuenning, Jordan Grimes of Purdue would be a reach, even with a comp, but Chris Young would be worth a 3rd, but that's about it. One of those 3 should be available in the 3rd, or maybe even an OT prospect who could play guard at the NFL level (like Leonard Davis did for example). But yes, there are only 4 or so guards that would be worth taking early, and guard, IMO, is the most pressing need along the O-line. We have some depth at OT, and even when Jansen went down the O-line was alright, it wasn't until we lost Randy we saw major problems, and this occurred in 2005 as well when Randy went down. His triceps injury should still be a concern given his style of blocking.

I'm sure there are various back-up plans if we miss our primary target in the 1st round. The only question is, who is that target? I know we will go by Best Player Available in the 1st round at least, and just exactly who will fall to us is a guessing game, though we can narrow the candidates down. I'd bet my car we don't take a WR in the 1st round simply because better players will be available, and the drop off from the lower 1st round WRs to 2nd and 3rd round receivers isn't very significant. I'd also bet my car we don't take D-line in the 1st unless Ellis slid down to 21, and Calais Campbell is too much of a question mark to take in the 1st round, not to mention a lot of experts have him slipping to the 2nd round, Harvey wouldn't be BPA at 21 either, and more than likely some team is going to reach with him before we pick.

So of our remaining needs, CB, OG, OT, the top prospects are:

CB: Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Antoine Cason, Aqib Talib.

DRoC isn't going to fall to 21. IF he did, we absolutely draft him, he is the BPA above the others most likely to be available. However, he is the 3rd rated CB behind Jenkins and McKelvin. CB is a popular position to draft in the 1st, with an average of 4 being drafted in the 1st round the past 5 drafts. I just can't see only 2 CBs being taken before 21, and Cason and Talib would be decent picks at 21, but they aren't the BPA at 21.

OG: Branden Albert is the only guard worth taking in the 1st, and more than likely he will be avialable as OTs are taken in the 1st over OGs, as they are a more valued position. In our case, we are returning every starter and are drafting for depth and future replacements, meaning guard is equally as valuable to us as OT.

OT: The 1st round prospects are Jake Long, Ryan Clady, Jeff Otah, Chris Williams. On average 3 OTs have been taken in the 1st the past 5 drafts, however all 4 of these guys are projected to be gone by the middle of the 1st round. Long and Clady will not fall to us, Otah I wouldn't count on. However, Chris Williams does have a possibility of falling to us. Going by BPA makes it difficult to determine if who we'd take between Williams and Albert. Buges has talked at length with both these guys already. The thing is though, you do have to consider the strength of the prospect class at each position. OT is by far deeper in this draft than guard. And unless the Skins are completely enamored with Williams, I have to imagine they are going to the smarter move in grabbing Albert and looking for an OT a little later. If the Skins went with Williams in the 1st I'd be very happy with that move, but another factor is cost. A 1st round guard is going to come much cheaper than a 1st round OT.

The 2nd round OT prospects are Sam Baker, Gosder Cherilus, Anthony Collins, Carl Nicks, and maybe Oneil Cousins.

The 2nd round guard prospects is Chilo Rachal. The 3rd round guards are Schuenning and Eric Young. Jordan Grimes stock is rising and could go in the 3rd, but he might even be a reach in the 3rd, which shows how considerable the drop off in guard talent is this year.

If DRoC fell to 21 and we took him, there would be plenty of OT talent in the 2nd and 3rd to acquire, and Chilo Rachal in the 2nd would be a good move too, IMO.

With Samuels, Jansen, Heyer I don't think OT is as pressing a need as some think. IMO, the reason OTs we would/are looking at taking early would be ones that we would convert to guard, and whom could later transistion back to OT later in their careers. (though Branden Albert could make the transisiton as well, and his versatility in this regard give him a little more stock, IMO, as he could fill either OG or OT need, his wingspan is ridiculous.)

[texasthunder]

I know, his stock is rising, but he still is projected in the third because the top 3 WRs in the draft (Limas Sweed, Malcolm Kelly, Desean Jackson) are all projected as low first rounders. After them, there are about 13 other WRs projected ahead of, or around, Nelson. These guys are:

4) Devin Thomas, Michigan State, low 1st/ high 2nd

5) Mario Manningham, Michigan, low 1st/ high 2nd

6) James Hardy, Indiana, high 2nd

7) Early Doucet, LSU, slipped to high 2nd

8) Andre Caldwell, Florida, mid 2nd

9) Adrian Arrington, Michigan, mid 2nd

10) Earl Bennett, Vanderbilt, low 2nd

11) Adarious Bowman, Oklahoma State, low 2nd/ high 3rd

12) Donnie Avery, Houston, high 3rd

13) Lavelle Hawkins, California, high 3rd

14) Eddie Royal, VA Tech, mid 3rd

15) Dexter Jackson, Appalaichan State, mid 3rd

16) DJ Hall, Alabama, low 3rd

and then Jordy Nelson, followed by:

18) Harry Douglas, Louisville, high 4th

19) Jerome Simpson, Coastal Carolina, early 4th

20) Keenan Burton, Kentucky, 4th

These players still have a month to rise and fall, but as you can see we will have a very nice crop of WRs from which to choose if we wait until the 3rd round. Jordy Nelson seems to be the best player likely to be available when we pick, in terms of the WR class.

Rotoworld has Jordy at #10, and Scouts has him at #9 on the recievers list.

Hope he is still around when we draft.

What do you think about A.Bowman from Oklahoma State ??

[BthatRAD09]

Yeah the one thing I worry about with taking Sweed or Kelly in round 1 is that it seems like those late first round WRs always bust. And OL or even a DE would likely be a safer pick.

but honestly our glaring need is a wide reciever and we need to take a risk with a wide reciever. if it works, we can become an upper echelon team in 2 years. if it doesnt oh well. if the o line player works if we draft them, ok, but that wont make our team nearly as much better as if we draft a wr that turns out to be good.

it is worth the risk given our glaring need for wr.

any challengers to this argument?(not to sound ****y, i just want feedback)

[outbaksean]

but honestly our glaring need is a wide reciever and we need to take a risk with a wide reciever. if it works, we can become an upper echelon team in 2 years. if it doesnt oh well. if the o line player works if we draft them, ok, but that wont make our team nearly as much better as if we draft a wr that turns out to be good.

it is worth the risk given our glaring need for wr.

any challengers to this argument?(not to sound ****y, i just want feedback)

I don't see a glaring need at reciever. We could use some size, but Moss has shown that he can be a good number one, and ARE has shown that he can be a good number 2 or 3. Coooooooley is great. Throw Mix and maybe Caldwell in and keep them all healthy and we should be fine, especially if Cambell shows improvement.

We need to take the best value in round one of all of our needs, which are o-line, d-line, wr, and defensive back. If that turns out to be a wr than great, but we shouldn't reach if a better player is available. Also, Vinny has said there is plenty of wr talent in rounds 2-3, so I don't personally expect us to pick a wr in round 1.

[elkabong82]

Rotoworld has Jordy at #10, and Scouts has him at #9 on the recievers list.

Hope he is still around when we draft.

What do you think about A.Bowman from Oklahoma State ??

Damn it! I didn't see that. It's hard to keep good players under the radar. I was hoping Nelson would stick around the middle of the WR prospect list, cuz I had him valued over a lot of those other guys. If Nelson is 9th or 10 th, we could have him with our 2nd rounder, but I'm not a big fan of the CB pool likely available in the 3rd round.

Bowman is the prototypical WCO WR we are looking for, but his injuries concern me a bit. If he's around with the 3rd comp he'd be worth it though. However, Scouts has Sweed down at 6, and has James Hardy even lower. If this were the case and Hardy were actually available in the 2nd or 3rd I'd take him. 6'5" 4.5 40.

Over the past 3 drafts, the average amount of WRs taken by the mid 3rd round is 10, which puts Jordy Nelson at a great risk of being gone by our 3rd rounder if their projections are correct. However, if Sweed really is 6th he could fall to us in the 2nd, and you jump all over that.

[BthatRAD09]

i guess given the later round prospects, it would be llegit to pass up a first rounder WR, but still, a majority would say we need a TO or a Burress on our team. that is not moss, mix, or anyone else on our team. they are great players, just dont have the game in and game out dominance. who knows, sweed could have it. maybe not. tkae the risk