Cerrato: Our Position Needs and Their Overall Early Draft Success Rates!!!

[elkabong82]

but honestly our glaring need is a wide reciever and we need to take a risk with a wide reciever. if it works, we can become an upper echelon team in 2 years. if it doesnt oh well. if the o line player works if we draft them, ok, but that wont make our team nearly as much better as if we draft a wr that turns out to be good.

it is worth the risk given our glaring need for wr.

any challengers to this argument?(not to sound ****y, i just want feedback)

Read the very first post in this thread. The success rates of low 1st round WRS is dangerously low.

The team goes strictly by Best Player Avaialble in the 1st round. Whether or not that will indeed be a WR is anyone's guess. If we took a Sweed-type WR in the first I wouldn't mind, because that would mean the team felt he was the best player we could get at 21. However, given the success rate of O-linemen in the 1st round, and add the deep talent pool of WRs in the 2nd and 3rd round in this class, I am going with Branden Albert, OG out of UVA, as the most likely BPA at 21, and thus our 1st round pick. This doesn't mean I'm oppossed to a WR in the 1st, it's just where I see things going.

[elkabong82]

i guess given the later round prospects, it would be llegit to pass up a first rounder WR, but still, a majority would say we need a TO or a Burress on our team. that is not moss, mix, or anyone else on our team. they are great players, just dont have the game in and game out dominance. who knows, sweed could have it. maybe not. tkae the risk

It's not that a risk couldn't be taken in the 1st, it's that it shouldn't be taken in the 1st. Like I said, the team goes strictly by BPA in the 1st (it's why we took Landry last year instead of that DE everyone wanted) and WR might not necessarily be that BPA. With the 1st rounder the position the player plays isn't nearly as important as the talent level of the player. BPA is the most proven and succesful draft philosophy in the early rounds.

[outbaksean]

i guess given the later round prospects, it would be llegit to pass up a first rounder WR, but still, a majority would say we need a TO or a Burress on our team. that is not moss, mix, or anyone else on our team. they are great players, just dont have the game in and game out dominance. who knows, sweed could have it. maybe not. tkae the risk

Sweed is no more likely to be special than Mix is. A TO or Burres type player would be nice, but so would a Jared Allen, or better yet a Sean Taylor.

[elkabong82]

Sweed is no more likely to be special than Mix is. A TO or Burres type player would be nice, but so would a Jared Allen, or better yet a Sean Taylor.

Whoa whoa whoa, let's not go overboard. I get what you are saying, but Sweed is a projected 1st round WR, Mix went undrafted. The odds are more in Sweed's favor than Mix, even if he hasn't played a down in the NFL yet.

Jared Allen would be nice, he was a 4th rounder, and hopefully we can find a later-round gem that develops into just as good of a player as he is. That's actually one of the reasons I like Gilberry in the 5th.

[TheLongshot]

but honestly our glaring need is a wide reciever and we need to take a risk with a wide reciever. if it works, we can become an upper echelon team in 2 years. if it doesnt oh well. if the o line player works if we draft them, ok, but that wont make our team nearly as much better as if we draft a wr that turns out to be good.

it is worth the risk given our glaring need for wr.

any challengers to this argument?(not to sound ****y, i just want feedback)

Yeah, I'll challenge it. We have two starting quality WRs right now. More than likely, whoever we draft isn't going to jump the draft chart over those two guys. On the other hand, a guard drafted in the first three rounds has a pretty good chance to eventually replace Kendall. Our DTs are not so good right now that a rookie can't move up the depth chart, and we have little depth at DE, with one of our starters nearing the end and little behind him.

So, don't tell me that WR is a "glaring" need. It is a need, but not as great as other positions on this team.

Jason

[seantaylorera]

ok, so i know the compensatory projection is a 3rd for dockery, and two 7th rounders, one for wright and the other for holdman. now this question may have been asked a trillion times, but i tried to search - is there any compensation for duckett?

[33]

Bump for the homestretch.

[elkabong82]

good bump, thanks, lol. Hopefully people will see the very first post to get an idea of what we should avoid at 21.

[Nighthawk]

I was all for drafting Albert out of UVA, but since then, he's risen to the point where he won't be there when we pick.

Also, instead of taking what's left at OT at 21 which will be about the 4th or 5th best OT left on the board, I think we need to move to the next highest position in the draft, DE or CB.

I still want Jordy Nelson but it looks like we'll have to take him in the 2nd if we really want him.

[IHOPSkins]

......1st: Branden Albert, OG, UVA: excellent pick, prob. BPA at #21, the Skins solve their biggest problems from the preceding year, O-line was def. one of them.....

I am onboard with 2 O-Lineman

A stud starter for upgrade

A filler for the injuries

Win the Trench Battle

Nice analysis Elka

[skinfan2k]

Either we trade down from 21 to late first round, early 2nd round, pick up sweed and campbell and we would be set.