Big storm this weekend but alot of uncertainy with regards to DC/VA/MD

[d0ublestr0ker0ll]

The storm will happen. The question is...how much snow do we get. I say 60% chance we get accumulating snow and 30% chance it stays all snow. If it does stay all snow...it will be a record breaker

I looked at a few other sources and it looks like it will be a bit under freezing at night. I was under the impression that this weekend was going to be a mild one. Oh how things do change. But wow, a noreaster? Cold has to be jetting in or cemented in place for that warmer moisture to be able to drop snow.

[Sticksboi05]

Here's the EURO that I edited for my friends to understand:

[Skins24]

Wow, seems like it'll be too warm for this to happen.

lol

This isn't totally directed at you double, but why do people say that? They said that before the snow last week. The temps now are completely irrelevant to what may happen a few days from now. This is late Fall. You can easily see huge temperature swings of 30 degrees within 24 hours (or less in some cases). Same goes for early Spring.

[d0ublestr0ker0ll]

lol

This isn't totally directed at you double, but why do people say that? They said that before the snow last week. The temps now are completely irrelevant to what may happen a few days from now. This is late Fall. You can easily see huge temperature swings of 30 degrees within 24 hours (or less in some cases). Same goes for early Spring.

Oh I was looking at forecasts for later this week. Otherwise, it is hard to judge what the temps will be in this area when it comes to late fall/early winter.

[Sticksboi05]

lol

This isn't totally directed at you double, but why do people say that? They said that before the snow last week. The temps now are completely irrelevant to what may happen a few days from now. This is late Fall. You can easily see huge temperature swings of 30 degrees within 24 hours (or less in some cases). Same goes for early Spring.

:applause:

Thank you. My friend was freakin' out about that too when I explained it to him.

[d0ublestr0ker0ll]

:applause:

Thank you. My friend was freakin' out about that too when I explained it to him.

I don't get it. Do you guys assume that people don't realize that temperatures change? I think when you talk about weather in the near future you can never assume what the temps will be by the way they are on the given day. Again, I am going by forecasts that say the High will be around the high 30's and the low in the low 30's/high 20's for the weekend.

[CandaceM23]

<--- Will not be happy if it snows. It took me 45 minutes to drive to work the morning that it snowed. I live less than 5 miles away from work. It took almost an hour and a half to get home that evening.

Plus, the stupid MF'ers in my complex didn't put any salt or sand down on the roads in my complex. The roads were a sheet of ice for two days and there's a big hill .... Not good.

Stupid snow.

[Sticksboi05]

<--- Will not be happy if it snows. It took me 45 minutes to drive to work the morning that it snowed. I live less than 5 miles away from work. It took almost an hour and a half to get home that evening.

Plus, the stupid MF'ers in my complex didn't put any salt or sand down on the roads in my complex. The roads were a sheet of ice for two days and there's a big hill .... Not good.

Stupid snow.

Trust me if things go 100% perfect (haha right), you won't be going ANYWHERE for a while.

[cadets08]

Once I hear Doug Hill of ABC 7 and WTOP predict serious snow I am betting against it. This guy is a total clown. If he calls for snow we get rain, but if he calls for rain we get snow. He screwed up the forecast this past week.

I swear he should become a weatherman in Arizona...."Today it will be hot with little to no humidity, and 0% chance of rain." 365 days a year.

[Sticksboi05]

Once I hear Doug Hill of ABC 7 and WTOP predict serious snow I am betting against it. This guy is a total clown. If he calls for snow we get rain, but if he calls for rain we get snow. He screwed up the forecast this past week.

I swear he should become a weatherman in Arizona...."Today it will be hot with little to no humidity, and 0% chance of rain." 365 days a year.

If I actually care to listen to the local weathermen I go to Channel 9 and 4. FOX 5 is a bunch of panzies who beat around the bush and channel 7 is ehh. But I rarely listen to what they have to say anyway.

But in Hill's defense, he did properly predict the 2003 President's Day Storm.

[Head]

Lots of questions regarding the track for the storm

when does the phasing occur between the branches of the jet stream

Is there anything ot keep the High in Canada in place or will it move and allow warm to overtake the cold..

If this stays all snow..we could be talking feet but i cant see that happening. Maybe for the mountains.

But lots of time for this to play out.

The key is the track. We need low pressure to track S&E of us. If it heads to our west and redevlops...we probably change over.

Whatever happens, i expect someone to get destroyed(probably the mountains and the interior Northeast). We could get a substantial accumulation before a changeover.

Wow, you call this pulling the trigger :jerk:

It'd be sad to see a forecast you weren't so sure of :doh:

In the future, if you claim to be pulling the trigger, how about actually pulling it?

You left yourself too many outs on this one, and not one single statement you wrote actually shows that you are confident in what you said.

Not one.

[Sarge]

I'd be happy if I could find out accurately what's it supposed to do tomorrow:laugh:

[Skins24]

Wow, you call this pulling the trigger :jerk:

It'd be sad to see a forecast you weren't so sure of :doh:

In the future, if you claim to be pulling the trigger, how about actually pulling it?

You left yourself too many outs on this one, and not one single statement you wrote actually shows that you are confident in what you said.

Not one.

Umm....

It's still nearly a week out. Anyone trying to making any accurate predictions with any confidence this far out is...not very smart. It's impossible.

[Rumrunner6900]

I tell ya one thing.....I live in the ****ing mountains....it is supposed to snow in the ****ing mountains....I have lived hear for 11 years and I think the most snow I've seen in this area is around 8 inches...the Tidewater area has gotten more snow than the ****ing mountains lately....

so it damn well better snow in the ****ing mountains!!!

[Sticksboi05]

Umm....

It's still nearly a week out. Anyone trying to making any accurate predictions with any confidence this far out is...not very smart. It's impossible.

Exactly. A week out for a storm like this is eternity.

2003 (the biggest east storm so far of this decade) was projected to be rain six days out.

NESIS Scale - 4

1996: What some called The Storm of the Century (worst storm in megalopolis history) was projected to go south of us six days out.

NESIS Scale - 5 (one of only two storms to be rated 5 along with March Superstorm of 1993)

It's a toss up at this point and Ji is right.

NESIS = Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale

[honeydont]

The best weather forecast (even better then triple doppler) is to look out the window. That has never been wrong yet. :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh:

[cadets08]

If I actually care to listen to the local weathermen I go to Channel 9 and 4. FOX 5 is a bunch of panzies who beat around the bush and channel 7 is ehh. But I rarely listen to what they have to say anyway.

But in Hill's defense, he did properly predict the 2003 President's Day Storm.

Very true, but everyone and their mother predicted that one.

[Sticksboi05]

Very true, but everyone and their mother predicted that one.

6 days out that storm was forecast to be rain...

Ok here is Henry's latest map after seeing the 18Z GFS run.

As always this is a week out so nothing at all is certain.

[rtbasye]

Here's the EURO that I edited for my friends to understand:

major graphic editing skills at work there! :laugh:

[rtbasye]

accuweather just says "cold w/rain"

[Sticksboi05]

accuweather just says "cold w/rain"

The details haven't been ironed out at all yet so that's why none of the big sites say snow yet.

Btw, lol, I can do much better than that.

[Head]

Umm....

It's still nearly a week out. Anyone trying to making any accurate predictions with any confidence this far out is...not very smart. It's impossible.

Exactly. A week out for a storm like this is eternity.

2003 (the biggest east storm so far of this decade) was projected to be rain six days out.

NESIS Scale - 4

1996: What some called The Storm of the Century (worst storm in megalopolis history) was projected to go south of us six days out.

NESIS Scale - 5 (one of only two storms to be rated 5 along with March Superstorm of 1993)

It's a toss up at this point and Ji is right.

NESIS = Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale

Both of you are completely missing the point, and need to learn how to interpret what is being said, instead of assuming I'm just being an ass and jumping on him for his forecast, because I did not do that in this example.

Ji said he was pulling the trigger, and there would be a major to severe snowstorm this weekend. then when you look at what he wrote, he was sidestepping, backpeddaling and such, so no matter what happens, he can claim victory.

All I was doing was pointing out that he was falsely claiming to be pulling the trigger, when his statement was nowhere near an actual commitment.

[SkinsHokieFan]

Are we looking at Saturday or Sunday?

If anything, please hold this off until after 5:20 Saturday. I have a flight to the middle east

[Ji]

Both of you are completely missing the point, and need to learn how to interpret what is being said, instead of assuming I'm just being an ass and jumping on him for his forecast, because I did not do that in this example.

Ji said he was pulling the trigger, and there would be a major to severe snowstorm this weekend. then when you look at what he wrote, he was sidestepping, backpeddaling and such, so no matter what happens, he can claim victory.

All I was doing was pointing out that he was falsely claiming to be pulling the trigger, when his statement was nowhere near an actual commitment.

I am pulling the trigger. I am forecasting a big storm on the east coast this weekend affecting the Carolinas through New England.

YOu want accumulations a week out LOL?

[Head]

I am pulling the trigger. I am forecasting a big storm on the east coast this weekend affecting the Carolinas through New England.

YOu want accumulations a week out LOL?

Read what you wrote, and show me how ANYTHING you wrote can be taken as any kind of commitment to anything at all, even slightly.......

Lots of questions regarding the track for the storm

when does the phasing occur between the branches of the jet stream

Is there anything ot keep the High in Canada in place or will it move and allow warm to overtake the cold..

If this stays all snow..we could be talking feet but i cant see that happening. Maybe for the mountains.

But lots of time for this to play out.

The key is the track. We need low pressure to track S&E of us. If it heads to our west and redevlops...we probably change over.

Whatever happens, i expect someone to get destroyed(probably the mountains and the interior Northeast). We could get a substantial accumulation before a changeover.